OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC

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Our risk factors are organized in the following sections:

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Risks Related to AFG Common Shares

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The price per share of AFG's common stock may be subject to a high degree of volatility, including significant price declines.

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Although AFG's common stock is listed on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE"), there can be no assurance as to the liquidity of the trading market or the price at which such shares can be sold. The price of the shares may decline substantially in response to a number of events or circumstances, including but not limited to:

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•adverse developments in our financial condition or results of operations;

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•changes to regulatory status;

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•changes in investors’ or analysts’ valuation measures for our stock;

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•adverse changes in analysts’ recommendations regarding our stock;

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•market perceptions of our success, or lack thereof, in building and managing our Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses and our business strategy and tactics more generally;

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•the impact or perceived impact of any acquisition, disposition or other strategic transaction, including entry into a new line of business or the value or long-term prospects of the Company;

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•adverse developments in the industries and markets in which we operate, including the property and casualty insurance, underwriting and brokerage industries, or the fixed income and equity capital markets;

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•adverse market and/or economic conditions, such as those caused by a recession or inflation, which increase our risk of loss on insurance policies and depress the value and/or liquidity of our investments and other assets;

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•adverse developments in current or future litigations; and

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•results and actions of other participants in our industries.

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The price of AFG's shares may also be affected by the risks described below. Investments in AFG's common stock may be subject to a high degree of volatility.

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Ambac is planning to further develop and expand its Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses; however, such plans may not be realized, or if realized, may not create value and may negatively impact our financial results.

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Ambac is planning to further develop and expand its Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance and Insurance Distribution businesses. Such plans may involve additional acquisitions of assets or existing businesses and the development of businesses through new or existing subsidiaries. Currently, it is not possible to fully predict the future prospects or other characteristics of such businesses. We may not be able to successfully identify opportunities, attract specialized underwriting and other talent, and operationalize new businesses in a timely or cost-efficient manner. While we expect to conduct business, financial and legal due diligence in connection with the evaluation of any future business or acquisition opportunities, there can be no assurance our due diligence will identify every matter that could have a material adverse effect on us. Efforts to pursue or develop certain business opportunities may be unsuccessful or require significant financial or other resources, which could have a negative impact on our growth plans, operating results and financial condition. To implement our growth strategy, we must be able to meet our capital needs, expand and refine our systems and our internal controls effectively, allocate our human resources optimally, identify and hire qualified employees and effectively integrate any acquisitions we make in our effort to achieve growth. No assurance can be given that Ambac will successfully execute its plans for new business, generate any earnings or value from new businesses or be able to successfully integrate any such business into our current operating structure. The failure to manage our growth effectively could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

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Our inability to successfully manage ongoing organizational changes could adversely impact our business results. We may experience higher levels of costs or disruption in managing these changes, which may cause the benefits derived from our business development strategy to be less than we originally expect.

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Should changes in Ambac’s circumstances or financial condition or in the political, economic and/or legal environment occur, there can be no assurance that all or any part of our strategy and/or initiatives will not be abandoned or adjusted to take account of such changes. Any such adjustment or abandonment may have a material adverse effect on our securities.

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Risks Related to the Company's Business

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We are subject to reputational harm if companies with which we do business engage in negligent or fraudulent behaviors and damage to our reputation could materially adversely impact our business.

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Our business depends on contractual and working relationships with insurance distribution partners, insurance carriers, reinsurers, policyholders and beneficiaries, third party administrators, and other agents and counterparties. We could suffer material financial loss, reputational harm and/or a loss of business

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prospects if a business partner, agent or counterparty engages in negligent or fraudulent conduct, whether directly in our relationship with them or indirectly as a result of their conduct in other business relationships.

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Ambac may be adversely impacted by P&C industry market cycles.

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Ambac’s P&C businesses are subject to market cycles. Premium pricing in the commercial property and casualty insurance markets has been historically based on underwriting capacity of insurance carriers, general economic conditions, inflation, and other factors. In recent years, we have been in a “hard” market whereby carriers have been raising rates. However, we have observed that in certain lines of business the rate of pricing increase has slowed or begun to decrease. If carriers lower premium rates more broadly this would be referred to as a “softening” or “soft” market. Given that Ambac generates revenue from both insurance premiums and commissions that are based on insurance premiums, our revenues are affected by the cyclicality of the markets in which we operate. If we enter a soft market, absent mitigating factors, we may experience a reduction in revenues and profits.

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Catastrophic events may cause volatility of net income and comprehensive income primarily through changes to loss reserves, which may not be adequate to cover potential losses, and declines in revenues. Revenue may be adversely impacted by reduced business activity and lower sliding scale and profit commissions.

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Catastrophic events, whether natural or man-made, including natural disasters and environmental and public health events that result in material disruption of economic activity, loss of human life or significant property damage, can have a materially negative impact on our financial and operational performance. Such stresses could result in liquidity strains or permanent losses.

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Everspan may be exposed to losses arising out of unpredictable catastrophic events. These include natural catastrophes and other disasters, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, windstorms, floods, wildfires, and severe winter weather. Catastrophes can also include man-made disasters, such as terrorist attacks and other destructive acts, war, political unrest, explosions, cyber-attacks, nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological events and infrastructure failures. A severe catastrophe or a series of catastrophes could result in losses exceeding Everspan’s reinsurance protection and may have a material adverse impact on our results of operations or financial condition.

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Changing weather patterns and climate change have added to the unpredictability, frequency and severity of weather-related catastrophes incurred by the property and casualty insurance industry in recent years. These changing weather patterns make it more difficult to predict and model catastrophic events, reducing our ability to accurately price exposure to such events and mitigate its risks.

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Catastrophic events may cause significant volatility in the markets in which we operate. Disruptions to these markets could result in a decline in business activity, increased claims, reduced underwriting capacity from insurance companies, reinsurers and other capital providers upon which our P&C businesses are reliant. Catastrophic events may also interrupt the operations of

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our agents and business partners that distribute our P&C insurance products. Profit commissions and contingent commissions related to certain of our P&C business lines may also be adversely impacted by catastrophic losses. Individually and/or collectively, these results may have a material adverse impact on our results of operations and financial condition.

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Further, we use internally developed and third-party vendor tools and models to assess exposure to losses, including catastrophic losses. The models assume various conditions and probability scenarios and may not accurately predict future losses or measure losses currently incurred. Limitations in these tools and models may adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.

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The ultimate impact of a catastrophic event on insurers and their obligations, and the economy in general, is by its very nature uncertain, and will be determined by a number of factors including, but not limited to, the depth and duration of a particular crisis; the extent to which affected consumers, businesses, municipal entities and other debtors or sources of revenues recover from depressed economic circumstances, and the timelines for such recoveries; the level and efficacy of government intervention or support for affected persons or entities and the financial markets via emergency relief measures; the availability of insurance; the availability of cost-effective financing; management of public health crisis remediation efforts; the effectiveness of other public or private crisis management efforts, mitigation measures or support; and certain socio-economic variables, such as unemployment levels. Consequently, if following such catastrophic events we do not have sufficient resources or financial flexibility, receive adequate measures of support or realize the appropriate level of economic recovery, our ultimate ability to operate could be materially impaired and we could suffer material permanent losses and therefore may have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. Counterparties that service aspects of our business may be similarly impacted and, if their operations are impaired due to a catastrophe, it may be difficult or costly to us to find alternatives to such servicing capabilities.

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We could realize losses from our cash and investment accounts if one of the financial institutions we use fail or is taken over by regulators.

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We maintain cash and investment accounts, including premium trust accounts, at depository institutions in amounts in excess of the limits insured by the FDIC. If one or more of these institutions were to fail or be taken over by federal regulators, our access to these funds could be limited and we could experience liquidity problems and potential financial losses.

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Our risk management policies and practices may not adequately identify significant risks.

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As described in Part I, Item 1, “Risk Management” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, we have established risk management policies and practices which seek to mitigate our exposure to a variety of risks. These policies and practices in the past have not insulated us from risks that were unforeseen and which had unanticipated loss severity, and such policies and practices may not do so in the future. There can be no assurance that these policies and practices will be adequate to avoid future losses. If we are not able to identify significant

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risks, we may not be able to timely mitigate such risks, thereby increasing the amount of losses to which we are exposed. An inability to identify significant risks could also result in the failure to timely establish loss reserves that are sufficient in relation to such risks.

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We operate within an enterprise risk management (“ERM”) framework designed to assess and monitor risks. However, no assurance can be given that we will effectively identify, review, monitor or manage all relevant risks. Nor can we provide assurance that our ERM framework will result in us accurately identifying all risks and adequately limiting our exposures based on our assessments. Any ineffectiveness in our controls or procedures or failure to manage these risks may have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

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We are subject to the risk of litigation and the outcome of proceedings we are or may become involved in could have a material adverse effect on our business, operations, financial position, profitability or cash flows.