WEST FRASER TIMBER CO., LTD
For the period ended Dec 31, 2024. Filed Feb 12, 2025.
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The yearly report of certain Canadian companies, filed under a joint US and Canadian system. It is the main yearly account these companies give US investors, largely as filed in Canada.
FY2024 · Filed Feb 12, 2025
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Contents
EX-99.3 · Forward-Looking Statements
Forward-Looking Statements
This MD&A includes statements and information that constitutes “forward-looking information” within the meaning of Canadian securities laws and “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of United States securities laws (collectively, “forward-looking statements”). Forward-looking statements include statements that are forward-looking or predictive in nature and are dependent upon or refer to future events or conditions. We use words such as “expects,” “anticipates,” “plans,” “believes,” “estimates,” “seeks,” “intends,” “targets,” “projects,” “forecasts,” or negative versions thereof and other similar expressions, or future or conditional verbs such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “would,” and “could,” to identify these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements generally include statements which reflect management’s expectations regarding the operations, business, financial condition, expected financial results, performance, prospects, opportunities, priorities, targets, goals, ongoing objectives, strategies and outlook of West Fraser and its subsidiaries, as well as the outlook for North American and international economies for the current fiscal year and subsequent periods.
Forward-looking statements included in this MD&A include references to:
| Discussion | Forward-Looking Statements |
|---|---|
| Our Business and Strategy | our corporate strategy and objectives to generate strong financial results through the business cycle, to maintain robust product and geographic diversity, to maintain a strong balance sheet and liquidity profile along with an investment-grade issuer rating, to maintain a leading cost position and to return capital to shareholders, reinvest in operations across all market cycles to enhance productivity, product mix and capacity, and pursuit of opportunistic acquisitions and larger-scale growth initiatives |
| Recent Developments – Markets | impact of new home construction activity, interest rates and inflationary price pressures, mortgage rates, housing supply and demand and affordability, housing starts, housing prices, unemployment rates, repair and remodelling demand, inflationary pressures on demand for lumber and OSB, capacity contraction in lumber supply fundamentals, expectations regarding near, medium and longer-term core demand, prospect of future interest rate cuts, import trends and inflation; impact of new or reduced lumber and OSB production capacity on market supply and pricing |
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| Discussion & Analysis of Annual Results by Product Segment - Lumber Segment - Softwood Lumber Dispute | administrative review commencement, adjustment of export duty rates, proceedings related to duty rates, and timing of finalization of AR6 and AR7 duty rates |
|---|---|
| Business Outlook – Markets | market conditions, housing affordability, demand for our products over the near, medium and longer term, growing market penetration of mass timber, impacts of interest rates and mortgage rates, rates for U.S. housing starts, inflationary pressures, ability to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities; and expectations as to reductions of interest rates, impact of broader economy and employment slowing and potential for demand decline in near term, ongoing geopolitical conflict, financial impact of our Pulp & Paper segment and contribution and variability to our consolidated results |
| Business Outlook – Softwood lumber dispute | the timing and finalization of the AR6 and AR7 duty rates and their impact on our financial position |
| Business Outlook – Operations | production levels, demand expectations, projected SPF and SYP lumber shipments, projected OSB shipments, and the impact of tariffs on SPF lumber and OSB shipments into the U.S. from Canada, operating costs, fibre costs, expectation of trends in B.C. and Alberta stumpage rates, U.S. South log costs and trends to be largely similar to those of 2024, with region-specific log costs varying, the stability of costs from inputs continuing in the near term for U.S. OSB, increased demand tension for pulp logs as primary source for OSB production as a result of recent sawmill curtailments, expected stabilization of input costs for Europe EWP, including energy and resin costs, in 2025, near 2024 levels, the timing, costs of restart, ramp up period to target production and contribution to shipments of Allendale OSB facility, and the contribution to our overall OSB platform with modern Allendale OSB facility operating, and expectations as to moderation of input costs and improved availability across supply chain |
| Business Outlook – Cash Flows | projected cash flows from operations and available liquidity, projected capital expenditures, total estimated capital costs, completion dates and ramp-up periods (including with respect to the modernization of the Henderson, Texas lumber manufacturing facility), expected results of capital expenditures, including improvements, maintenance, optimization and automation projects and projects targeted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, maintenance of our investment grade issuer rating, strategic growth opportunities, expected continuity of dividends and share repurchases |
| Liquidity and Capital Resources | available liquidity, our policy on capital management, maintenance of investment grade issuer rating, and our goal to maintain a balanced capital allocation strategy |
By their nature, these forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, which contribute to the possibility that the predictions, forecasts, and other forward-looking statements will not occur. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated or implied by forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to:
assumptions in connection with the economic and financial conditions in the U.S., Canada, U.K., Europe and globally and consequential demand for our products, including the ability to meet our shipment guidance, and variability of operating schedules and the impact of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East;
future increases in interest rates and inflation or continued sustained higher interest rates and rates of inflation could impact housing affordability and repair and remodelling demand, which could reduce demand for our products;
near and long-term impacts and uncertainties of U.S. administration tariff and other policies on the demand and prices of our wood products in the U.S. and the consequential impact on the profitability of our Canadian business, financial condition and results of operations;
global supply chain issues may result in increases to our costs and may contribute to a reduction in near-term demand for our products;
continued governmental approvals and authorizations to access timber supply, and the impact of forest fires, infestations, environmental protection measures and actions taken by government respecting Indigenous rights, title and/or reconciliation efforts on these approvals and authorizations;
risks inherent in our product concentration and cyclicality;
effects of competition for logs, availability of fibre and fibre resources and product pricing pressures, including continued access to log supply and fibre resources at competitive prices and the impact of third-party certification standards; including reliance on fibre off-take agreements and third party consumers of wood chips;
effects of variations in the price and availability of manufacturing inputs, including energy, employee wages, resin and other input costs, and the impact of inflationary pressures on the costs of these manufacturing costs, including increases in stumpage fees and log costs;
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availability and costs of transportation services, including truck and rail services, and port facilities, and impacts on transportation services of wildfires and severe weather events, and the impact of increased energy prices on the costs of transportation services;
the recoverability of property, plant and equipment ($3,842 million), goodwill and intangibles ($2,180 million), both as at December 31, 2024, is based on numerous key assumptions which are inherently uncertain, including production volume, product pricing, operating costs, terminal multiple, and discount rate. Adverse changes in these assumptions could lead to a change in financial outlook which may result in carrying amounts exceeding their recoverable amounts and as a consequence an impairment, which could have a material non-cash adverse effect on our results of operations;
transportation constraints, including the impact of labour disruptions, may negatively impact our ability to meet projected shipment volumes;
the timing of our planned capital investments may be delayed, the ultimate costs of these investments may be increased as a result of inflation, and the projected rates of return may not be achieved;
various events that could disrupt operations, including natural, man-made or catastrophic events including drought, wildfires, cyber security incidents, any state of emergency and/or evacuation orders issued by governments, and ongoing relations with employees;
risks inherent to customer dependence;
risks associated with international trade, including impact of future cross border trade rulings, agreements and duty rates;
implementation of important strategic initiatives and identification, completion and integration of acquisitions;
impact of changes to, or non-compliance with, environmental or other regulations;
government restrictions, standards or regulations intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and our inability to achieve our SBTi commitment for the reduction of greenhouse gases as planned;
the costs and timeline to achieve our greenhouse gas emissions objectives may be greater and take longer than anticipated;
changes in government policy and regulation, including actions taken by the Government of British Columbia pursuant to recent amendments to forestry legislation and initiatives to defer logging of forests deemed “old growth” and the impact of these actions on our timber supply;
impact of weather and climate change on our operations or the operations or demand of our suppliers and customers;
ability to implement new or upgraded information technology infrastructure;
impact of information technology service disruptions or failures;
impact of any product liability claims in excess of insurance coverage;
risks inherent to a capital intensive industry;
impact of future outcomes of tax exposures;
potential future changes in tax laws, including tax rates;
risks associated with investigations, claims and legal, regulatory and tax proceedings covering matters which if resolved unfavourably may result in a loss to the Company;
effects of currency exposures and exchange rate fluctuations;
fair values of our electricity swaps may be volatile and sensitive to fluctuations in forward electricity prices and changes in government policy and regulation;
future operating costs;
availability of financing, bank lines, securitization programs and/or other means of liquidity;
continued access to timber supply in the traditional territories of Indigenous Nations and our ability to work with Indigenous Nations in B.C. to secure continued fibre supply for our lumber mills through various commercial agreements and joint ventures;
our ability to continue to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting;
the risks and uncertainties described in this document; and
other risks detailed from time to time in our annual information forms, annual reports, MD&A, quarterly reports and material change reports filed with and furnished to securities regulators.
In addition, actual outcomes and results of these statements will depend on a number of factors including those matters described under “Risks and Uncertainties” in this MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or projected. This list of important factors affecting forward‑looking statements is not exhaustive and reference should be made to the other factors discussed in public filings with securities regulatory authorities. Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward‑looking statements and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward‑looking statements, whether written or oral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required by applicable securities laws.
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