NeoVolta Inc.
For the period ended Jun 30, 2026. Filed Sep 23, 2026.
View on SEC.govAbout this filing
A company's yearly report to the SEC, with audited financial statements. It is the fullest account a company gives of its business, its finances and the risks it sees.
FY2026 · Filed Sep 23, 2026
What changed in Risk Factors?
Read the current filingPrevious report: 10-K
Period ended 2025-06-30; filed 2025-09-29.
0001683168-25-007304
ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORSCurrent report: 10-K
Period ended 2026-06-30; filed 2026-09-23.
0001683168-26-007333
ITEM 1A. RISK FACTORSThe baseline is this issuer’s latest earlier reporting period of the same form that was filed before the current report. A previous 10-Q is a different quarter, not a year-over-year comparison. Amendments are excluded.
Compared 90 previous paragraphs and 100 current paragraphs.
72 unchanged; 17 reworded; 11 added; 1 removed; 0 previous and 0 current paragraphs rearranged.
Tables are not compared: 6 previous and 27 current tables excluded. Dates, whitespace, punctuation and numbering changes are ignored; changes to financial figures remain significant.
A changed paragraph is not evidence that risk increased or decreased. An unchanged paragraph does not establish that risk stayed the same.
Added paragraphs (11)
Current report
Although we have been in business for over eight years, we have not yet established a successful and sustainable business model.
Current report
The anticipated startup of our new utility-scale battery manufacturing joint venture in the State of Georgia at the end of our fiscal 2027 first quarter may be subject to significant competitive, operational, financial, regulatory, and technological risks.
Current report
We may encounter intense competition from established players with greater resources or brand recognition, and demand volatility or slow adoption of our products could delay revenue generation. We may experience supply chain disruptions if key components or services are not yet secured and dependency on key personnel for product development, sales, or operations. We may encounter liquidity constraints if the business requires significantly higher upfront investment than we are expecting before generating cash flow. We may confront challenges in achieving compliance with new or evolving regulations in the target market, such as environmental, safety, or labor compliance risks, and pending litigation or claims related to our new products. We may face cybersecurity threats to customer data or proprietary systems and rapid technological changes that could render our products obsolete.
Current report
We expect certain financial benefits as a result of federal tax incentives available to our new utility-scale battery manufacturing joint venture. If these expected financial benefits vary significantly from our assumptions, our business, financial condition, and results of operations could be adversely affected.
Current report
We expect our new utility-scale battery manufacturing joint venture plant in the State of Georgia to be eligible for the Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credit under Internal Revenue Code Section 45X and to enable our customers to claim the Clean Electricity Investment Tax Credit under Internal Revenue Code Section 48E, notwithstanding that there are strict federal tax regulations pertaining to these credits which involve any foreign sourcing.
Current report
We anticipate qualifying for the Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credit by virtue of manufacturing our utility-scale batteries in the United States and selling them to unrelated purchasers. Such credits may be refundable by the IRS or transferable to a third party for cash and are available from 2023 to 2032, subject to phase-down beginning in 2030. Our ability to realize these benefits depends on our ability to satisfy applicable statutory requirements or regulatory guidance regarding Section 45X of the IRC.
Current report
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (“OBBBA”) passed by Congress in July 2025 provides that a qualified facility, energy storage technology or eligible component that includes material assistance from a prohibited foreign entity is not eligible for a credit under Section 45X. Material assistance is defined as a material assistance cost ratio (“MACR”) that is less than the applicable threshold percentage.
Current report
Despite the fact that our joint venture partner is affiliated with such a foreign entity, we expect to achieve compliance with the OBBBA by relying on IRS Notice 2026-15, which offers high-level general rules and an interim safe-harbor approach to calculating the MACR for a project or manufactured component. This safe harbor, which is expected to be available to NVP, allows taxpayers to trace to the level of detail of the items listed in the IRS’s domestic content safe harbor tables with additional averaging rules to account for procurement and tracing.
Current report
We have made a significant investment of management time and other resources in the development of a third-party ownership platform which is designed to provide a new market for our residential and commercial energy storage products. If this new platform is not successful in meeting its anticipated objectives, there can be no assurance that we will be able to achieve a satisfactory return on our underlying investments.
Current report
The market for our legacy residential and commercial battery storage products has dramatically shifted due to recent federal tax law changes prescribed in the OBBBA. As a result, we believe that the most effective path for us to market those products going forward is through a tax-efficient, third-party ownership (“TPO”) model. Therefore, we recently entered into a TPO Platform Services Agreement with an experienced, privately-owned development company to establish and operate a TPO platform with that company, which is designed to provide a new market for our residential and commercial energy storage products. This new platform will be fully functional for the initial processing of customer salesin the first quarter of our fiscal year 2027. There can be no assurance that the launch of our TPO platform will be successful in meeting our anticipated objectives and in recovering the investments of management time and other resources that we have made.
Current report
As of June 30, 2026, we had significant net operating loss carryforwards in the U.S. Utilization of these loss carryforwards assumes that prior to their expiration, we will have sufficient taxable income in the U.S. to utilize the carryforwards, and that such usage is not limited based on anti abuse provisions or other statutes and laws. Any such limitations on our ability to use our net operating loss carryforwards and other tax assets could adversely impact our tax expense, financial condition, results of operations, and cash flows.
Removed paragraphs (1)
Previous report
We are a relatively new company, with our sales having only commenced in July 2019, and we continue to have some of the risks associated with start-up ventures.
Reworded paragraphs (17)
Previous wording
We formed our corporation in 2018. Since formation, we have focused on research, development and certification of our first energy storage system. We began marketing, sales, and installations via our certified installers in May 2019 (although no sales were completed in the year ended June 30, 2019). We may never achieve commercial success with our energy storage systems. We have limited historical financial data upon which we may base our projected revenue and operating expenses. Our relatively short operating history makes it difficult for potential investors to evaluate our technology or prospective operations and business prospects. Accordingly, we continue to be subject to many of the risks inherent in business development, financing, unexpected expenditures, and complications and delays that often occur in a new business. Investors should evaluate an investment in us in light of the uncertainties encountered by developing companies in a competitive environment. There can be no assurance that our efforts will be successful or that we will ultimately be able to attain profitability.
Current wording
We formed our corporation in 2018. Since formation, we have focused on research, development and certification of our first energy storage system. We began marketing, sales, and installations via our certified installers in May 2019 (although no sales were completed in the year ended June 30, 2019). We may never achieve commercial success with our energy solutions. We are presently transitioning from being a storage manufacturer into an integrated energy solutions leader, therefore, we have limited historical financial data upon which we may base our projected revenue and operating expenses. While we are optimistic on the prospects for success in our new business model, we continue to be subject to many of the risks inherent in business development, financing, unexpected expenditures, and complications and delays that often occur in a new business. Investors should evaluate an investment in us in light of the uncertainties encountered by developing companies in a competitive environment. There can be no assurance that our efforts will be successful or that we will ultimately be able to attain profitability.
Previous wording
We have incurred significant net losses since our inception. For the years ended June 30, 2025 and 2024, we have incurred net losses of $5.0 million and $2.3 million, respectively. As of June 30, 2025, we had an accumulated deficit of $25.8 million. If our revenue grows more slowly than currently anticipated, or if operating expenses are higher than expected, we may be unable to consistently achieve profitability, our financial condition will suffer, and the value of our common stock could decline. Even if we are successful increasing our sales, we may incur losses in the foreseeable future as we continue to develop and market our products. If sales revenue from any of our current products or any additional products that we develop in the future is insufficient, or if our product development is delayed, we may be unable to achieve profitability and, in the event we are unable to secure financing for prolonged periods of time, we may need to temporarily cease operations and, possibly, shut them down altogether. Furthermore, even if we are able to achieve profitability, we may be unable to sustain or increase such profitability on a quarterly or annual basis, which would adversely impact our financial condition and significantly reduce the value of our common stock.
Current wording
We have incurred significant net losses since our inception. For the years ended June 30, 2026 and 2025, we have incurred net losses of $21.5 million and $5.0 million, respectively. As of June 30, 2026, we had an accumulated deficit of $47.2 million. If our revenue grows more slowly than currently anticipated, or if operating expenses are higher than expected, we may be unable to consistently achieve profitability, our financial condition will suffer, and the value of our common stock could decline. Even if we are successful increasing our sales, we may incur losses in the foreseeable future as we continue to develop and market our products. If sales revenue from any of our current products or any additional products that we develop in the future is insufficient, or if our product development is delayed, we may be unable to achieve profitability and, in the event we are unable to secure financing for prolonged periods of time, we may need to temporarily cease operations and, possibly, shut them down altogether. Furthermore, even if we are able to achieve profitability, we may be unable to sustain or increase such profitability on a quarterly or annual basis, which would adversely impact our financial condition and significantly reduce the value of our common stock.
Previous wording
We may encounter unanticipated challenges, such as supply chain or logistics constraints, that lead to delays in producing and ramping our energy storage products. Any significant delay or other complication in the production of our products or the development, manufacture, and production ramp of our future products, including complications associated with expanding our production capacity and supply chain or obtaining or maintaining regulatory approvals, and/or coronavirus impacts, could materially damage our brand, business, prospects, financial condition and operating results.
Current wording
We may encounter unanticipated challenges, such as supply chain or logistics constraints, that lead to delays in producing and ramping our energy storage products. Any significant delay or other complication in the production of our products or the development, manufacture, and production ramp of our future products, including complications associated with expanding our production capacity and supply chain or obtaining or maintaining regulatory approvals, could materially damage our brand, business, prospects, financial condition and operating results.
Previous wording
We are dependent on our two main component vendors for our suppliers of batteries, inverters and other raw materials and the inability of these single-source suppliers to deliver necessary components of our products according to our schedule and at prices, quality levels and volumes acceptable to us, or our inability to efficiently manage these components, could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and operating results.
Current wording
We are dependent on our two main component vendors for our supplies of battery cells, inverters and other raw materials and the inability of these single-source suppliers to deliver necessary components of our products according to our schedule and at prices, quality levels and volumes acceptable to us, or our inability to efficiently manage these components, could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and operating results.
Previous wording
Presently, our two main raw material components, batteries and inverters, are imported from different suppliers in China and, until recently, were subject to fairly low tariff rates that had been in effect for several years. Beginning in April 2025, the Trump Administration implemented a significant increase in tariff rates on all goods imported from China, although it was temporarily suspended for 90 days in April 2025 and the suspension has recently been extended to early November 2025. Prior to the tariff escalation in April 2025, we had anticipated the likelihood of facing such a tariff increase and began stockpiling our inventory of these two components. As a result, we do not anticipate having to purchase a significant level of such components at post-tariff prices for the next several months.
Current wording
Presently, our two main raw material components, batteries and inverters, are imported from different suppliers in China and, until recently, were subject to fairly low tariff rates that had been in effect for several years. Beginning in April 2025, the Trump Administration implemented a significant increase in tariff rates based on the authority of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (“IEEPA”) on all goods imported from China, although it was temporarily suspended for 90 days in April 2025 and the tariff rate was lowered in November 2025, subject to judicial review. In February 2026, the Supreme Court declared the tariffs to be unconstitutional based on the authority of IEEPA, therefore, the Administration is considering alternative approaches to implementing tariffs that it believes would be sustained in a judicial review. Prior to the tariff escalation in April 2025, we had anticipated the likelihood of facing such a tariff increase and began periodic stockpiling our inventory of these two components, which we have continued to pursue in any subsequent periods of tariff abatements or reductions since then, in order to reduce the impact of the tariffs.
Previous wording
In the event, however, that such a mutual trade agreement is not reached between the parties within the next several months and we find it necessary to begin purchasing a significant level of our inventory components from China at post-tariff prices, we would be faced with a decision as to whether we should attempt to pass along such tariff increases to our customers through higher prices for our products or absorbing them internally, or some combination of those two alternatives.
Current wording
In the event, however, that such a mutual trade agreement is not reached between the parties within the next several months and we find it necessary to begin purchasing a significant level of our inventory components from China at post-tariff prices, we would be faced with a decision as to whether we should attempt to pass along such tariff increases to our customers through higher prices for our products or absorb them internally, or some combination of those two alternatives.
Previous wording
We are currently selling two primary products and if these products that we sell or install fail to perform as expected, our reputation could be harmed and our ability to develop, market and sell our products and services could be harmed.
Current wording
We are currently selling multiple energy storage products and if these products that we sell or install fail to perform as expected, our reputation could be harmed and our ability to develop, market and sell our products and services could be harmed.
Previous wording
Due to our limited operating history, we depend on a relatively small number of wholesale dealers and installers in California and other states for our revenue. For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, our two largest dealers accounted for approximately 41% and 23% of our total revenues, respectively. For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, our two largest dealers accounted for approximately 20% and 14% of our total revenues, respectively. As of June 30, 2025, our three largest dealers represented approximately 39%, 12% and 12% of our accounts receivable balance. Our limited customer base and concentration could expose us to the risk of substantial losses if a single dominant customer stops purchasing, or significantly reduces orders for, our products. Our ability to maintain close relationships with these top customers is essential to the growth and profitability of our business. If we fail to sell our products to one or more of these top customers in any particular period, or if a large customer purchases fewer of our products, defers orders or fails to place additional orders with us, or if we fail to develop additional major customers, our revenue could decline, and our results of operations could be adversely affected.
Current wording
Due to our limited operating history, we depend on a relatively small number of wholesale dealers and installers in California and other states for our revenue. For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, our three largest dealers accounted for approximately 39%, 15% and 11% of our total revenues, respectively. For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, our two largest dealers accounted for approximately 41% and 23% of our total revenues, respectively. As of June 30, 2026, our three largest dealers, net of expected credit losses, represented approximately 45%, 31% and 14% of our net accounts receivable balance. Our limited customer base and concentration could expose us to the risk of substantial losses if a single dominant customer stops purchasing, or significantly reduces orders for, our products. Our ability to maintain close relationships with these top customers is essential to the growth and profitability of our business. If we fail to sell our products to one or more of these top customers in any particular period, or if a large customer purchases fewer of our products, defers orders or fails to place additional orders with us, or if we fail to develop additional major customers, our revenue could decline, and our results of operations could be adversely affected.
Previous wording
We are currently operating in a period of economic uncertainty and capital markets disruption, which has been significantly impacted by geopolitical instability due to the ongoing military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and between Gaza and Israel. Our business, financial condition and results of operations may be materially and adversely affected by any negative impact on the global economy and capital markets resulting from these conflicts or any other geopolitical tensions.
Current wording
We are currently operating in a period of economic uncertainty and capital markets disruption, which has been significantly impacted by geopolitical instability due to the ongoing military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and between the U.S. and Iran. Our business, financial condition and results of operations may be materially and adversely affected by any negative impact on the global economy and capital markets resulting from these conflicts or any other geopolitical tensions.
Previous wording
U.S. and global markets are experiencing volatility and disruption following the escalation of geopolitical tensions and the military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, which began in February 2022, and between Gaza and Israel, which began in October 2023. Although the length and impact of these ongoing military conflicts are highly unpredictable, they could lead to further market disruptions, including significant volatility in commodity prices, credit and capital markets, as well as supply chain interruptions. We are continuing to monitor the situations in both of these areas and globally and assessing any potential impacts on our business.
Current wording
U.S. and global markets are experiencing volatility and disruption following the escalation of geopolitical tensions and the military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, which began in February 2022, and between the U.S. and Iran, which began in February 2026. Although the length and impact of these ongoing military conflicts are highly unpredictable, they could lead to further market disruptions, including significant volatility in commodity prices, credit and capital markets, as well as supply chain interruptions. We are continuing to monitor the situations in both of these areas and globally and assessing any potential impacts on our business.
Previous wording
Although we believe we have designed our products for safety, product liability claims, even those without merit, could harm our business, prospects, operating results and financial condition. Our risks in this area are particularly pronounced given that we have only recently begun to deliver energy storage products. Moreover, a product liability claim could generate substantial negative publicity about our products and business and could have material adverse effect on our brand, business, prospects and operating results.
Current wording
Although we believe we have designed our products for safety, product liability claims, even those without merit, could harm our business, prospects, operating results and financial condition. Our risks in this area are particularly pronounced given that we have only recently begun to deliver energy storage products. Moreover, a product liability claim could generate substantial negative publicity about our products and business and could have a material adverse effect on our brand, business, prospects and operating results.
Previous wording
We rely on information technology (“IT”) systems, including third-party “cloud based” service providers, to keep financial records, maintain product support data, and corporate records, to communicate with staff and external parties and to operate other critical functions. This includes critical systems such as email, other communication tools, electronic document repositories and archives. If any of these third-party information technology providers experience security breaches or incidents due to computer viruses, unauthorized access, malware, ransomware, natural disasters, fire, terrorism, war, telecommunication failures, electrical failures, cyber-attacks or cyber-intrusions over the internet, then sensitive data, including personal information, trade secrets, and confidential business information could be compromised, exposed, or deleted. Similarly, we could incur business disruption if our access to the internet is compromised, and we are unable to connect with third-party IT providers. The risk of a security breach or disruption, particularly through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion, including by computer hackers, foreign governments and cyber terrorists, has generally increased as the number, intensity and sophistication of attempted attacks and intrusions from around the world have increased. To the extent that any disruption or security breach results in a loss of or damage to our data or applications, or inappropriate disclosure of confidential or proprietary information, we could incur liability and delay of our product development and support efforts.
Current wording
We rely on information technology (“IT”) systems, including third-party “cloud based” service providers, to keep financial records, maintain product support data, and corporate records, to communicate with staff and external parties and to operate other critical functions. This includes critical systems such as email, other communication tools, electronic document repositories and archives. Presently, we do not have a formal cyber security policy due to our small size. If any of our third-party information technology providers experience security breaches or incidents due to computer viruses, unauthorized access, malware, ransomware, natural disasters, fire, terrorism, war, telecommunication failures, electrical failures, cyber-attacks or cyber-intrusions over the internet, then sensitive data, including personal information, trade secrets, and confidential business information could be compromised, exposed, or deleted. Similarly, we could incur business disruption if our access to the internet is compromised, and we are unable to connect with third-party IT providers. The risk of a security breach or disruption, particularly through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion, including by computer hackers, foreign governments and cyber terrorists, has generally increased as the number, intensity and sophistication of attempted attacks and intrusions from around the world have increased. To the extent that any disruption or security breach results in a loss of or damage to our data or applications, or inappropriate disclosure of confidential or proprietary information, we could incur liability and delay of our product development and support efforts.
Previous wording
We are heavily reliant on the services of both Ardes Johnson, our Chief Executive Officer, and Steve Bond, our Chief Financial Officer, and the departure or loss of either officer could disrupt our business.
Current wording
We are heavily reliant on the services of both Ardes Johnson, our Chief Executive Officer, Jing Nealis, our Chief Financial Officer, and Steve Bond, our Executive Vice President, and the departure or loss of any officer could disrupt our business.
Previous wording
We depend heavily on the continued efforts of Ardes Johnson, our Chief Executive Officer, and Steve Bond, our Chief Financial Officer***,*** who are essential to our strategic vision and day-to-day operations and would be difficult to replace. The departure or loss of either Mr. Johnson or Mr. Bond, or the inability to timely hire and retain qualified replacements, could negatively impact our ability to manage our business.
Current wording
We depend heavily on the continued efforts of Ardes Johnson, our Chief Executive Officer, Jing Nealis, our Chief Financial Officer, and Steve Bond, our Executive Vice President***,*** who are essential to our strategic vision and day-to-day operations and would be difficult to replace. The departure or loss of any of these officers, or the inability to timely hire and retain qualified replacements, could negatively impact our ability to manage our business.
Previous wording
We intend to seek to raise additional funds, finance acquisitions or develop strategic relationships by issuing equity or convertible debt securities, which would reduce the percentage ownership of our existing stockholders. Our board of directors has the authority, without action or vote of the stockholders, to issue all or any part of our authorized but unissued shares of common or preferred stock. Our articles of incorporation authorizes us to issue up to 100,000,000 shares of common stock and 5,000,000 shares of preferred stock. Future issuances of common or preferred stock would reduce our stockholders influence over matters on which stockholders vote and would be dilutive to earnings per share. In addition, any newly issued preferred stock could have rights, preferences and privileges senior to those of the common stock. Those rights, preferences and privileges could include, among other things, the establishment of dividends that must be paid prior to declaring or paying dividends or other distributions to holders of our common stock or providing for preferential liquidation rights. These rights, preferences and privileges could negatively affect the rights of holders of our common stock, and the right to convert such preferred stock into shares of our common stock at a rate or price that would have a dilutive effect on the outstanding shares of our common stock.
Current wording
We intend to seek to raise additional funds, finance acquisitions or develop strategic relationships by issuing equity or convertible debt securities, which would reduce the percentage ownership of our existing stockholders. Our board of directors has the authority, without action or vote of the stockholders, to issue all or any part of our authorized but unissued shares of common or preferred stock. Our articles of incorporation authorize us to issue up to 100,000,000 shares of common stock and 5,000,000 shares of preferred stock. Future issuances of common or preferred stock would reduce our stockholders influence over matters on which stockholders vote and would be dilutive to earnings per share. In addition, any newly issued preferred stock could have rights, preferences and privileges senior to those of the common stock. Those rights, preferences and privileges could include, among other things, the establishment of dividends that must be paid prior to declaring or paying dividends or other distributions to holders of our common stock or providing for preferential liquidation rights. These rights, preferences and privileges could negatively affect the rights of holders of our common stock, and the right to convert such preferred stock into shares of our common stock at a rate or price that would have a dilutive effect on the outstanding shares of our common stock.
Previous wording
The Nasdaq Capital Market requires that the trading price of its listed stocks remain above one dollar in order for the stock to remain listed. If a listed stock trades below one dollar for more than 30 consecutive trading days, then it is subject to delisting from Nasdaq. In addition, to maintain a listing on Nasdaq, we must satisfy minimum financial and other continued listing requirements and standards, including those regarding director independence and independent committee requirements, minimum stockholders’ equity, and certain corporate governance requirements. Additionally, we may become subject to an evolving set of compliance regulations pertaining to environmental, social and governance (“ESG”) matters as well as cybersecurity standards that are promulgated by Nasdaq or other regulatory bodies. If we are able to maintain the listing of our securities on Nasdaq, we may be unable to satisfy these requirements or standards and we could subject our securities to delisting, which would have a negative effect on the price of our common stock and would impair our security holders’ ability to sell or purchase our common stock or Warrants when they wish to do so. In the event of a delisting, we would expect to take actions to restore our compliance with the listing requirements, but we can provide no assurance that any such action taken by us would allow our securities to become listed again, stabilize the market price or improve the liquidity of our securities, prevent our securities from dropping below the minimum bid price requirement, or prevent future non-compliance with the listing requirements.
Current wording
To maintain our listing on Nasdaq, we must satisfy minimum bid price, financial and other continued listing requirements and standards, including those regarding director independence and independent committee requirements, minimum stockholders’ equity, and certain corporate governance requirements. If we are unable to maintain the listing of our securities on Nasdaq, or are unable to satisfy these requirements or standards, we could subject our securities to delisting, which would have a negative effect on the price of our common stock and would impair our security holders’ ability to sell or purchase our common stock or Warrants when they wish to do so. In the event of a delisting, we would expect to take actions to restore our compliance with the listing requirements, but we can provide no assurance that any such action taken by us would allow our securities to become listed again, stabilize the market price or improve the liquidity of our securities, prevent our securities from dropping below the minimum bid price requirement, or prevent future non-compliance with the listing requirements.
Previous wording
The trading market for our common stock depends in part on the research and reports that analysts and journalists publish about us or our business. If analysts or journalists publish inaccurate or unfavorable research about our business, our stock price would likely decline. If we fail to meet the expectations of analysts for our operating results, or if the analysts who covers us downgrade our stock, our stock price would likely decline. If one or more of these analysts ceases coverage of us or fails to publish reports on us regularly, demand for our stock could decrease, which could cause our stock price and trading volume to decline.
Current wording
The trading market for our common stock depends in part on the research and reports that analysts and journalists publish about us or our business. If analysts or journalists publish inaccurate or unfavorable research about our business, our stock price would likely decline. If we fail to meet the expectations of analysts for our operating results, or if the analysts who cover us downgrade our stock, our stock price would likely decline. If one or more of these analysts ceases coverage of us or fails to publish reports on us regularly, demand for our stock could decrease, which could cause our stock price and trading volume to decline.