KEYCORP /NEW/

Market risk is the risk that movements in market risk factors, including interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, commodity prices, credit spreads, and volatilities will reduce Key’s income and the value of its portfolios. These factors influence prospective yields, values, or prices associated with the instrument. We are exposed to market risk both in our trading and nontrading activities, which include asset and liability management activities. Our risk management activities are focused on ensuring that we properly identify, measure, and manage such risks across the entire enterprise to maintain safety and soundness, and to maximize profitability. Information regarding our fair value policies, procedures, and methodologies is provided in Note 1 (“Summary of Significant Accounting Policies”) under the heading “Fair Value Measurements” and Note 5 (“Fair Value Measurements”) in this report.

Trading market risk

Key incurs market risk as a result of trading activities that are used in support of client facilitation and hedging activities, principally within our investment banking and capital markets businesses. Key has exposures to a wide range of risk factors including interest rates, equity prices, foreign exchange rates, credit spreads, and commodity prices, as well as the associated implied volatilities and spreads. Our primary market risk exposures are a result of trading and hedging activities in the derivative and fixed income markets, including securitization exposures. At December 31, 2025, we did not have any re-securitization positions. We maintain modest trading inventories to facilitate customer flow, make markets in securities, and hedge certain risks including but not limited to credit spread risk and interest rate risk. The risks associated with these activities are mitigated in accordance with the Market Risk policies. The majority of our positions are traded in active markets.

Governance structure - Trading market risk

Market risk management is an integral part of Key’s risk culture. The Joint KeyCorp and KeyBank National Association Risk Committee (“Board Risk Committee”) provides oversight of trading market risks. The ALCO and the Market Risk Committee regularly review and discuss market risk exposures and results of monitoring activities. Market risk policies and procedures have been defined and take into account our tolerance for risk and consideration for the business environment. The Market Risk Committee approves market risk policies and recommends our significant market risk policy to the ALCO and the Board Risk Committee for approval.

MTRM, as the second line of defense, is an independent risk management function that partners with the lines of business to identify, measure, and monitor market risks throughout our company. MTRM is responsible for ensuring transparency of significant market risks, monitoring compliance with established limits, and escalating limit exceptions to appropriate senior management. The various business units and trading desks are responsible for ensuring that market risk exposures are well-managed and prudent. Market risk is monitored through various measures, such as VaR, and through routine stress testing, sensitivity, and scenario analyses. MTRM conducts stress tests for each position using historical worst case and standard shock scenarios. VaR, stressed VaR, and other analyses are prepared daily and distributed to appropriate management.

Covered positions. We monitor the market risk of our covered positions as defined in the Market Risk Rule, which includes all of our trading positions as well as all foreign exchange and commodity positions, regardless of whether the position is in a trading account. Key’s covered positions may also include mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities that may be identified as securitization positions or re-securitization positions under the Market Risk Rule. MTRM as well as the LOB that trades securitization positions monitor the positions, the portfolio composition and the risks identified in this section on a daily basis consistent with the Market Risk policies and procedures. At December 31, 2025, covered positions did not include any re-securitization positions. Instruments that are used to hedge nontrading activities, such as bank-issued debt and loan portfolios, equity positions that are not actively traded, and securities financing activities, do not meet the definition of a covered position. MTRM conducts an initial assessment of a position and shares with the Covered Position Working Group, which provides recommendation of the classification of a position, with final determination made by MTRM and legal. Decisions on the classification of Covered Positions are communicated to the Market Risk Committee as needed.

Our significant portfolios of covered positions are detailed below. We analyze market risk by portfolios of covered positions and do not separately measure and monitor our portfolios by risk type. The descriptions below incorporate the respective risk types associated with each of these portfolios.

•Fixed income includes those instruments associated with our capital markets business and the trading of securities as a dealer. These instruments may include positions in municipal bonds, bonds backed by the U.S. government, agency and corporate bonds, certain mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities, securities issued by the U.S. Treasury, money markets, and certain CMOs. The activities and instruments within the fixed income portfolio create exposures to interest rate and credit spread risks.

•Interest rate derivatives include interest rate swaps, caps, and floors, which are transacted primarily to accommodate the needs of commercial loan clients. In addition, we enter into interest rate derivatives to offset or mitigate the interest rate risk related to the client positions. The activities within this portfolio create exposures to interest rate risk.

VaR and stressed VaR. VaR is the estimate of the maximum amount of loss on an instrument or portfolio due to adverse market conditions during a given time interval within a stated confidence level. Stressed VaR is used to assess extreme conditions on market risk within our trading portfolios. MTRM calculates VaR and stressed VaR at various confidence levels daily, and the results are closely monitored. VaR and stressed VaR results are also provided to our regulators and utilized in regulatory capital calculations.

We use a historical simulation VaR model to measure the potential adverse effect of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, and credit spreads on the fair value of our covered positions and other non-covered positions. Historical moves in risk factors across various asset classes are incorporated in VaR metrics. Additional consideration is given to the risk factors to estimate the exposures that contain optionality features, such as options and cancellable provisions. VaR is calculated using daily observations over a one-year lookback period and approximates a 95% confidence level. Statistically, this means that we would expect to incur losses greater than VaR, on average, five out of 100 trading days, or three to four times each quarter.

The VaR model is an effective tool in estimating ranges of possible gains and losses on our positions. However, there are limitations inherent in the VaR model since it uses historical results over a given time interval to estimate future performance. Historical results may not be indicative of future results, and changes in the market or composition of our portfolios could have a significant impact on the accuracy of the VaR model. We regularly review and enhance the modeling techniques, inputs, and assumptions used. The VaR model undergoes periodic review and validation by Key’s Model Risk team. The Model Risk Committee oversees the Model Validation Program, and results of validations are discussed with the ERM Committee.

MTRM backtests the VaR model on a daily basis to evaluate its predictive power. The test compares VaR model results at the 99% confidence level to daily held profit and loss (the profit/loss resulting from changes in risk factors applied to the previous trading day’s closing positions; held profit and loss excludes fees, commissions, reserves, net interest income, and intraday trading). Backtesting exceptions occur when daily held profit and loss exceeds VaR. There were four backtesting exceptions for KeyCorp during the past 250 trading days ended December 31, 2025, generally caused by large moves in rates. The total number of VaR backtesting breaches for KeyCorp over the preceding 250 trading days is used to determine the multiplier for the VaR based capital requirement under the Market Risk Rule. The multiplier increases from a minimum of 3.0 to a maximum of 4.0, depending on the number of backtesting exceptions. All KeyCorp backtesting exceptions are thoroughly reviewed in the context of VaR model use and performance. The backtesting multiplier for KeyCorp was 3.0 for both December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2024. We do not engage in correlation trading or utilize the internal model approach for measuring default and credit migration risk. Our net VaR approach incorporates diversification, but our VaR calculation does not include the impact of counterparty risk and our own credit spreads on derivatives.

The aggregate VaR at the 99% confidence level with a one day holding period for all covered positions was $0.8 million at December 31, 2025, and $1.4 million at December 31, 2024. Figure 23 summarizes our VaR at the 99% confidence level with a one day holding period for significant portfolios of covered positions for the three months ended December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2024.

Figure 23. VaR for Significant Portfolios of Covered Positions

Stressed VaR is calculated by running the portfolios through a predetermined stress period which is approved by the Market Risk Committee and is calculated at the 99% confidence level using the same model and assumptions used for general VaR. The aggregate stressed VaR for all covered positions was $2.6 million at December 31, 2025, and $5.2 million at December 31, 2024. Figure 24 summarizes our stressed VaR at the 99% confidence level with a one day holding period for significant portfolios of covered positions for the three months ended December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2024. Changes in VaR are dependent on portfolio composition, inventory levels, and other market factors.

Figure 24. Stressed VaR for Significant Portfolios of Covered Positions

Market risk is a component of our internal capital adequacy assessment. Our risk-weighted assets include a market risk-equivalent asset amount, which consists of a VaR component, stressed VaR component, ade minimis exposure amount, and a specific risk add-on including the securitization positions. The aggregate market value of the securitization positions as defined by the Market Risk Rule was $19 million at December 31, 2025, all of which were mortgage-backed security positions. Specific risk is the price risk of individual financial instruments, which is not accounted for by changes in broad market risk factors and is measured through a standardized approach. Market risk weighted assets, including the specific risk calculations, are run quarterly by MTRM in accordance with the Market Risk Rule, and approved by the Chief Market & Treasury Risk Officer.

Nontrading market risk

Most of our nontrading market risk is derived from interest rate fluctuations and its impacts on our traditional loan and deposit products, as well as investments, hedging relationships, long-term debt, and certain short-term borrowings. Interest rate risk, which is inherent in the banking industry, is measured by the potential for fluctuations in net interest income and the EVE. Such fluctuations may result from changes in interest rates and differences in the repricing and maturity characteristics of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities. We manage the exposure to changes in net interest income and the EVE in accordance with our risk appetite and in accordance with the Board-approved ERM policy.

Interest rate risk positions are influenced by a number of factors, including the balance sheet positioning that arises out of customer preferences for loan and deposit products, economic conditions, the competitive environment within our markets, changes in market interest rates that affect client activity, and our hedging, investing, funding, and capital positions. The primary components of interest rate risk exposure consist of reprice risk, basis risk, yield curve risk, and option risk.

•“Reprice risk” is the exposure to changes in the level of interest rates and occurs when the volume of interest-bearing liabilities and the volume of interest-earning assets they fund (e.g., deposits used to fund loans) do not mature or reprice at the same time.

•“Yield curve risk” is the exposure to nonparallel changes in the slope of the yield curve (where the yield curve depicts the relationship between the yield on a particular type of security and its term to maturity) and occurs when interest-bearing liabilities and the interest-earning assets that they fund do not price or reprice to the same term point on the yield curve.

•“Option risk” is the exposure to a customer or counterparty’s ability to take advantage of the interest rate environment and terminate or reprice one of our assets, liabilities, or off-balance sheet instruments prior to contractual maturity. Option risk occurs when exposures to customer and counterparty early withdrawals or prepayments are not mitigated with an offsetting position or appropriate compensation.

•“Basis risk” is the exposure to asymmetrical changes in interest rate indexes and occurs when floating-rate assets and floating-rate liabilities reprice at the same time, but in response to different market factors or indexes.

Governance structure - Nontrading market risk

The management of nontrading market risk is centralized within Corporate Treasury. The Risk Committee of our Board provides oversight of nontrading market risk. The ERM Committee, the ALCO, and the Treasury Risk Oversight Committee (“TROC”) review reports on the interest rate risk exposures described above. In addition, the ALCO and the TROC review reports on stress tests and sensitivity analyses related to interest rate risk. These committees have various responsibilities related to managing nontrading market risk, including recommending, approving, and monitoring strategies that maintain risk positions within approved tolerance ranges. The A/LM policy provides the framework for the oversight and management of interest rate risk and is administered by the ALCO. The MTRM, as the second line of defense, provides additional oversight.

Net interest income simulation analysis. The primary tool we use to measure our interest rate risk is simulation analysis. For purposes of this analysis, we estimate our net interest income based on the current and projected composition of our on- and off-balance sheet positions, accounting for recent and anticipated trends in customer activity. The analysis also incorporates assumptions for the current and projected interest rate environments and balance sheet growth projections based on a most likely macroeconomic outlook. The modeling incorporates investment portfolio and swap portfolio balances consistent with management's desired interest rate risk positioning. The simulation model estimates the amount of net interest income at risk by simulating the change in net interest income that would occur if rates were to gradually diverge from market expectations over the next 12 months (subject to a floor on market interest rates at zero).

Figure 25 presents the results of the simulation analysis at December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2024. At December 31, 2025, our simulated exposure to changes in interest rates remained neutral. The exposure to declining rates has changed from 0.15% as of December 31, 2024 to (0.35)% as of December 31, 2025, while the exposure to rising rates has changed from (0.39)% as of December 31, 2024 to 0.41% as of December 31, 2025. The modest shift toward asset sensitivity was caused principally by the adoption of a new pricing model for indeterminate maturity interest-bearing deposits in the first quarter of 2025. The new deposit beta model incorporates more historical data and features that we believe more accurately reflect the behavior of our clients in rising and declining interest rate cycles. In addition, since the beginning of the second quarter of 2025, Key now measures simulated change in net interest income relative to implied forwards in a baseline scenario. Previously, metrics were calculated against a flat-rate assumption in the baseline scenario.

We are actively managing the balance sheet to maintain desired IRR positioning in the current environment. Tolerance levels for risk management require the development of remediation plans to maintain residual risk within tolerance if simulation modeling demonstrates that a gradual, parallel 200 basis point increase or 200 basis point decrease in interest rates over the next 12 months would adversely affect net interest income over the same period by more than 5.0%, revised mid-2025 from 5.5% to reflect tighter risk management. Current modeled exposure is within Board-approved tolerances.

Figure 25. Simulated Change in Net Interest Income

Simulation analyses produce an estimate of interest rate exposure based on assumption inputs within the model. Assumptions are tailored to the specific interest rate environment and validated on a regular basis. However, actual results may differ from those derived in simulation analyses due to unanticipated changes to the balance sheet composition, customer behavior, product pricing, market interest rates, changes in management’s desired interest rate risk positioning, investment, funding and hedging activities or repercussions from exogenous events.

Regular sensitivity analyses are performed on the model inputs that could materially change the resulting risk assessments. Assessments are performed using different yield curve shapes, including steepenings or flattenings of the curve, immediate changes in market interest rates, and changes in the relationship of money market interest rates. Assessments are also performed on changes to the following assumptions: loan and deposit balances, the pricing of deposits without contractual maturities, changes in lending spreads, prepayments on loans and securities, investment, funding and hedging activities, and liquidity and capital management strategies.

The results of additional assessments indicate that net interest income could increase or decrease from the base simulation results presented in Figure 25. Net interest income is highly dependent on the timing, magnitude, frequency, and path of interest rate changes and the associated assumptions for deposit repricing relationships, lending spreads, and the balance behavior of transaction accounts. If fixed-rate assets increase by $1 billion, or fixed-rate liabilities decrease by $1 billion, then the potential benefit to declining rates would increase by approximately 21 basis points. A five percentage point increase or decrease in the interest-bearing deposit beta assumption changes the current simulation results by approximately 97 basis points.

The current interest rate risk position could fluctuate to higher or lower levels of risk depending on the competitive environment and client behavior that may affect the actual volume, mix, maturity, and repricing characteristics of loan and deposit flows. Corporate Treasury’s discretionary activities related to funding, investing, and hedging may also change as a result of changes in customer business flows or changes in management’s desired interest rate risk positioning. As changes occur to both the configuration of the balance sheet and the outlook for the economy, management proactively evaluates hedging opportunities that may change the interest rate risk profile.

Simulations are also conducted that measure the effect of changes in market interest rates in the second and third years of a three-year horizon. These simulations are conducted in a similar manner to those based on a 12-month horizon. To capture longer-term exposures, changes in the EVE are calculated as discussed in the following section.

Economic value of equity modeling. EVE complements net interest income simulation analysis as it estimates risk exposure beyond 12-, 24-, and 36-month horizons. EVE modeling measures the extent to which the economic values of assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet instruments may change in response to fluctuations in interest rates. EVE is calculated by subjecting the balance sheet to an immediate increase or decrease in interest rates, measuring the resulting change in the values of assets, liabilities, and off-balance sheet instruments, and comparing those amounts with the base case of the current interest rate environment. EVE policy limits are measured against a +/-200 basis point scenario subject to a floor on market interest rates at zero. This analysis is highly dependent upon assumptions applied to assets and liabilities with non-contractual maturities. Those assumptions are based on historical behaviors, as well as forward expectations. Remediation plans are similarly developed if the analysis indicates that the EVE will decrease by 15% or more in response to an instantaneous increase or decrease in interest rates. The position is within these guidelines as of December 31, 2025.

Management of interest rate exposure. The results of the various interest rate risk analyses are used to formulate A/LM strategies to achieve the desired risk profile while managing to objectives for capital adequacy and liquidity risk exposures. Specifically, risk positions are managed by purchasing or selling securities, issuing term debt with floating or fixed interest rates, and using derivatives. Interest rate swaps and options are predominantly used, which modify the interest rate characteristics of certain assets and liabilities.

Figure 26 shows all swap positions held for A/LM purposes. These positions are used to convert the contractual interest rate index of agreed-upon amounts of assets and liabilities (i.e., notional amounts) to another interest rate index. For example, fixed-rate debt is converted to a floating rate through a “receive fixed/pay variable” interest rate swap. The volume, maturity, and mix of portfolio swaps change frequently to reflect broader A/LM objectives and the balance sheet positions to be hedged. For more information about how interest rate swaps are used to manage the risk profile, see Note 7 (“Derivatives and Hedging Activities”).

Figure 26. Portfolio Swaps and Options by Interest Rate Risk Management Strategy

(a)Excludes accrued interest of $173 million and $51 million at December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2024, respectively.