M&T BANK CORP
For the period ended Dec 31, 2024. Filed Feb 19, 2025.
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FY2024 · Filed Feb 19, 2025
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Provision for Credit Losses
A provision for credit losses is recorded to adjust the level of the allowance to reflect expected credit losses that are based on economic forecasts as of each reporting date. A provision for credit losses of $610 million and $645 million was recorded in 2024 and 2023, respectively. The lower provision for credit losses in 2024 as compared with 2023 reflects improved performance of loans to commercial real estate borrowers, partially offset by commercial and industrial and consumer loan growth.
A summary of the Company’s loan charge-offs, provision and allowance for credit losses is presented in Tables 17 and 23, and in note 4 of Notes to Financial Statements.
Table 17
LOAN CHARGE-OFFS, PROVISION AND ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES
| (Dollars in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Allowance for credit losses beginning balance | $2,129 | $1,925 | $1,469 |
| Charge-offs: | |||
| Commercial and industrial | 316 | 132 | 119 |
| Commercial real estate | 134 | 253 | 60 |
| Residential real estate | 6 | 10 | 12 |
| Consumer | 257 | 175 | 112 |
| Total charge-offs | 713 | 570 | 303 |
| Recoveries: | |||
| Commercial and industrial | 36 | 52 | 60 |
| Commercial real estate | 58 | 12 | 23 |
| Residential real estate | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| Consumer | 58 | 58 | 50 |
| Total recoveries | 158 | 129 | 143 |
| Net charge-offs (a) | 555 | 441 | 160 |
| Allowance on acquired PCD loans | — | — | 99 |
| Provision for credit losses (b) | 610 | 645 | 517 |
| Allowance for credit losses ending balance | $2,184 | $2,129 | $1,925 |
| Net charge-offs as a percent of: | |||
| Provision for credit losses | 90.98% | 68.45% | 30.93% |
| Average loans and leases | .41 | .33 | .13 |
| Allowance for credit losses as a percent of: | |||
| Loans and leases, at year-end | 1.61 | 1.59 | 1.46 |
| Nonaccrual loans, at year-end | 129.24 | 98.28 | 78.96 |
(a)For the year ended December 31, 2022 net charge-offs do not reflect $33 million of charge-offs related to PCD loans acquired on April 1, 2022.
(b)For the year ended December 31, 2022 provision for credit losses includes $242 million related to non-PCD acquired loans recorded on April 1, 2022.
Asset quality
A summary of nonperforming assets and certain past due loan data and credit quality ratios is presented in Table 18.
Table 18
NONPERFORMING ASSET AND PAST DUE LOAN DATA
| December 31, | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| (Dollars in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
| Nonaccrual loans | $1,690 | $2,166 | $2,439 |
| Real estate and other foreclosed assets | 35 | 39 | 41 |
| Total nonperforming assets | $1,725 | $2,205 | $2,480 |
| Accruing loans past due 90 days or more (a) | $338 | $339 | $491 |
| Government-guaranteed loans included in totals above: | |||
| Nonaccrual loans | $69 | $53 | $44 |
| Accruing loans past due 90 days or more (a) | 318 | 298 | 363 |
| Loans 30-89 days past due | 1,655 | 1,724 | 1,779 |
| Nonaccrual loans as a percent of total loans and leases | 1.25% | 1.62% | 1.85% |
| Nonperforming assets as a percent of total loans and leases and real estate and other foreclosed assets | 1.27 | 1.64 | 1.88 |
| Accruing loans past due 90 days or more as a percent of total loans and leases | .25 | .25 | .37 |
| Loans 30-89 days past due as a percent of total loans and leases | 1.22 | 1.29 | 1.35 |
(a)Predominantly government-guaranteed residential real estate loans.
The $476 million decline in nonaccrual loans in the recent year reflects a $507 million reduction in commercial real estate nonaccrual loans, partially offset by a $26 million increase in commercial and industrial nonaccrual loans. Approximately 53% of nonaccrual commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loans were considered current with respect to their payment status at each of December 31, 2024 and 2023.
At December 31, 2024, foreclosed assets were comprised predominantly of the Company's holding of residential real estate-related properties. Net gains or losses associated with real estate and other foreclosed assets were not material in 2024 and 2023.
Government-guaranteed loans designated as accruing loans past due 90 days or more included one-to-four family residential mortgage loans serviced by the Company that were repurchased to reduce associated servicing costs, including a requirement to advance principal and interest payments that had not been received from individual mortgagors. Despite the loans being purchased by the Company, the insurance or guarantee by the applicable government-related entity remains in force. The outstanding principal balances of the repurchased loans included in the amounts noted herein that are guaranteed by government-related entities totaled $224 million at December 31, 2024 and $228 million at December 31, 2023. Accruing loans past due 90 days or more not guaranteed by government-related entities were loans considered to be with creditworthy borrowers that were in the process of collection or renewal.
Approximately 73% of loans 30 to 89 days past due were less than 60 days delinquent at each of December 31, 2024 and 2023. Additional information about past due and nonaccrual loans at December 31, 2024 and 2023 is included in note 4 of Notes to Financial Statements.
During the normal course of business, the Company modifies loans to maximize recovery efforts. The modifications that the Company grants are typically comprised of maturity extensions, payment deferrals and interest rate reductions, but may also include other modification types. The
Company may offer such modified terms to borrowers experiencing financial difficulty. Such modified loans may be considered nonaccrual if the Company does not expect to collect all amounts owed under the terms of the loan agreement. Information about modifications of loans to borrowers experiencing financial difficulty is included in note 4 of Notes to Financial Statements.
The Company utilizes a loan grading system to differentiate risk amongst its commercial and industrial loans and commercial real estate loans. Loans with a lower expectation of default are assigned one of ten possible "pass" loan grades while specific loans determined to have an elevated level of credit risk are designated as "criticized." A criticized loan may be designated as "nonaccrual" if the Company no longer expects to collect all amounts owed under the terms of the loan agreement or the loan is delinquent 90 days or more.
Line of business personnel in different geographic locations with support from and review by the Company’s credit risk personnel review and reassign loan grades based on their detailed knowledge of individual borrowers and their judgment of the impact on such borrowers resulting from changing conditions in their respective regions. The Company’s policy is that, at least annually, updated financial information is obtained from commercial borrowers associated with pass grade loans and additional analysis performed. On a quarterly basis, the Company’s centralized credit risk department personnel review criticized commercial and industrial loans and commercial real estate loans greater than $5 million to determine the appropriateness of the assigned loan grade, including whether the loan should be reported as accruing or nonaccruing. For criticized nonaccrual loans, additional meetings are held with loan officers and their managers, workout specialists and senior management to discuss each of the relationships. In analyzing criticized loans, borrower-specific information is reviewed, including operating results, future cash flows, recent developments and the borrower’s outlook, and other pertinent data. The timing and extent of potential losses, considering collateral valuation and other factors, and the Company’s potential courses of action are contemplated.
Targeted loan reviews are periodically performed over segments of loan portfolios that may be experiencing heightened credit risk due to current or anticipated economic conditions. The intention of such reviews is to identify trends across such portfolios and inform portfolio risk limits and loss mitigation strategies. In 2023 and 2024, the Company conducted targeted loan reviews covering the majority of its investor-owned commercial real estate portfolio, inclusive of construction loans, with a focus on criticized loans and loans with maturities in the next twelve months. The primary source of repayment of these loans is typically tenant lease payments to the investor/borrower. Elevated vacancies impacting some property types and higher interest rates have contributed to lower current and anticipated future debt service coverage ratios, which have and may continue to influence the ability of borrowers to make existing loan payments. Lower debt service coverage ratios and reduced commercial real estate values also impact the ability of borrowers, in particular those borrowers with loans secured by office properties, to refinance their obligations at loan maturity. Despite these challenges, the ability of borrowers to service loans secured by certain investor-owned real estate, including health services, hotel, retail and multifamily properties, modestly improved in the recent year. Criticized investor-owned commercial real estate loans totaled $6.0 billion or 23% of such loans at December 31, 2024, improved from $8.8 billion or 27% of such loans at December 31, 2023. Investor-owned commercial real estate loans comprised 61% of total criticized loans at December 31, 2024, compared with 70% at December 31, 2023.
The LTV ratio is one of many factors considered in assessing overall portfolio risks and loss mitigation strategies for the investor-owned commercial real estate portfolio. The weighted-average LTV ratio for investor-owned commercial real estate loans at each of December 31, 2024 and 2023 was approximately 56%. Criticized loans secured by investor-owned commercial real estate had a weighted-average LTV ratio of approximately 63% and 61% at December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. In determining the LTV ratio, the Company considers cross-collateralization of all exposures secured by the supporting collateral and the estimated value of such collateral. Subsequent to the origination of commercial real estate loans, updated appraisals are obtained in the normal course of business for renewals, extensions and modifications to commitment levels. As the quality of a loan deteriorates to the point of designating the loan as "criticized nonaccrual," the process of obtaining updated collateral valuation information is usually initiated, unless it is not considered warranted given factors such as the relative size of the loan or the age of the last valuation. In those cases where current appraisals may not yet be available, prior appraisals are utilized with adjustments, as deemed necessary, for estimates of subsequent declines in values as determined by line of business and/or loan workout personnel. Those adjustments are reviewed and assessed for reasonableness by the Company’s credit risk personnel. Accordingly, for real estate collateral securing larger nonaccrual commercial and industrial loans and commercial real estate loans, estimated collateral values are generally based on current appraisals and estimates of value.
The Company monitors its concentration of commercial real estate lending as a percent of its Tier 1 capital plus its allowable allowance for credit losses, consistent with a metric utilized to differentiate such concentrations amongst regulated financial institutions. This metric, as prescribed in supervisory guidance, excludes loans secured by commercial real estate considered to be owner-occupied, but includes certain other loans, such as loans to real estate investment trusts, that are classified as commercial and industrial loans. The Company's commercial real estate loan concentration approximated 136% of Tier 1 capital plus its allowable allowance for credit losses at December 31, 2024, down from 183% at December 31, 2023. The Company has intentionally reduced its relative concentration of investor-owned commercial real estate loans throughout 2024 and 2023.
Tables 19 and 20 summarize the outstanding balances, and associated criticized balances, of commercial and industrial loans and leases by industry and commercial real estate loans by property type, respectively, at December 31, 2024 and 2023.
Table 19
CRITICIZED COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS AND LEASES
| December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Dollars in millions) | Outstanding | Criticized Accrual | Criticized Nonaccrual | Total Criticized | Outstanding | Criticized Accrual | Criticized Nonaccrual | Total Criticized |
| Commercial and industrial excluding owner-occupied real estate by industry: | ||||||||
| Financial and insurance | $11,479 | $71 | $35 | $106 | $10,679 | $346 | $3 | $349 |
| Services | 7,409 | 247 | 112 | 359 | 6,715 | 295 | 100 | 395 |
| Motor vehicle and recreational finance dealers | 7,229 | 527 | 38 | 565 | 6,242 | 164 | 51 | 215 |
| Manufacturing | 6,077 | 394 | 116 | 510 | 5,981 | 549 | 65 | 614 |
| Wholesale | 4,057 | 334 | 28 | 362 | 3,803 | 180 | 45 | 225 |
| Transportation, communications, utilities | 3,567 | 286 | 62 | 348 | 3,342 | 195 | 71 | 266 |
| Retail | 3,097 | 66 | 17 | 83 | 2,727 | 102 | 35 | 137 |
| Construction | 2,143 | 155 | 44 | 199 | 2,092 | 173 | 62 | 235 |
| Health services | 1,892 | 207 | 36 | 243 | 1,950 | 297 | 28 | 325 |
| Real estate investors | 1,751 | 148 | 8 | 156 | 1,684 | 189 | 4 | 193 |
| Other | 1,773 | 109 | 39 | 148 | 1,889 | 123 | 50 | 173 |
| Total commercial and industrial excluding owner-occupied real estate | $50,474 | $2,544 | $535 | $3,079 | $47,104 | $2,613 | $514 | $3,127 |
| Owner-occupied real estate by industry: | ||||||||
| Services | $2,345 | $153 | $26 | $179 | $2,162 | $154 | $51 | $205 |
| Motor vehicle and recreational finance dealers | 2,236 | 31 | 8 | 39 | 1,867 | 10 | 7 | 17 |
| Retail | 1,677 | 69 | 16 | 85 | 1,541 | 107 | 13 | 120 |
| Health services | 1,330 | 156 | 66 | 222 | 656 | 55 | 26 | 81 |
| Wholesale | 857 | 62 | 3 | 65 | 940 | 28 | 2 | 30 |
| Manufacturing | 809 | 73 | 24 | 97 | 842 | 64 | 24 | 88 |
| Real estate investors | 702 | 43 | 6 | 49 | 818 | 26 | 12 | 38 |
| Other | 1,051 | 54 | 12 | 66 | 1,080 | 32 | 21 | 53 |
| Total owner-occupied real estate | 11,007 | 641 | 161 | 802 | 9,906 | 476 | 156 | 632 |
| Total | $61,481 | $3,185 | $696 | $3,881 | $57,010 | $3,089 | $670 | $3,759 |
Table 20
CRITICIZED COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE LOANS
| December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2023 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Dollars in millions) | Outstanding | Criticized Accrual | Criticized Nonaccrual | Total Criticized | Outstanding | Criticized Accrual | Criticized Nonaccrual | Total Criticized |
| Permanent finance by property type: | ||||||||
| Apartments/Multifamily | $5,628 | $935 | $114 | $1,049 | $6,165 | $1,184 | $115 | $1,299 |
| Retail/Service | 4,747 | 673 | 80 | 753 | 5,912 | 1,075 | 227 | 1,302 |
| Office | 4,170 | 1,125 | 117 | 1,242 | 4,727 | 879 | 185 | 1,064 |
| Health services | 2,038 | 560 | 25 | 585 | 3,615 | 1,364 | 117 | 1,481 |
| Hotel | 1,984 | 317 | 118 | 435 | 2,510 | 496 | 210 | 706 |
| Industrial/Warehouse | 1,926 | 143 | 13 | 156 | 2,034 | 224 | 13 | 237 |
| Other | 287 | 30 | 1 | 31 | 314 | 28 | 2 | 30 |
| Total permanent | 20,780 | 3,783 | 468 | 4,251 | 25,277 | 5,250 | 869 | 6,119 |
| Construction/Development | 5,984 | 1,715 | 68 | 1,783 | 7,726 | 2,527 | 174 | 2,701 |
| Total | $26,764 | $5,498 | $536 | $6,034 | $33,003 | $7,777 | $1,043 | $8,820 |
Total criticized commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loans were $9.9 billion at the end of 2024 as compared with $12.6 billion at December 31, 2023. Criticized loans represented 11.2% of total commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loans at December 31, 2024, compared with 14.0% at December 31, 2023. At December 31, 2024, permanent finance commercial real estate loans comprised 43% of total criticized loans, compared with 49% at December 31, 2023. Commercial and industrial loans represented 39% and 30% of total criticized loans at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. At December 31, 2024, construction loans represented 18% of total criticized loans, compared with 21% at December 31, 2023. Loans to nonautomotive finance dealers, partially offset by a decline in loans to financial and insurance businesses, contributed to the $122 million net increase in commercial and industrial criticized loans in the recent year. The $2.8 billion decline in criticized commercial real estate loans from December 31, 2023 to December 31, 2024 reflected decreases across most property types, except for such loans secured by office properties. At December 31, 2024, approximately 97% of criticized accrual loans and 53% of criticized nonaccrual loans were considered current with respect to their payment status.
For loans secured by residential real estate the Company’s loss identification and estimation techniques make reference to loan performance and house price data in specific areas of the country where collateral securing those loans is located. For residential real estate-related loans, including home equity loans and lines of credit, the excess of the loan balance over the net realizable value of the property collateralizing the loan is charged-off when the loan becomes 150 days delinquent. That charge-off is based on recent indications of value from external parties that are generally obtained shortly after a loan becomes nonaccrual. Loans to consumers that file for bankruptcy are generally charged-off to estimated net collateral value shortly after the Company is notified of such filings. Limited documentation first lien mortgage loans represent loans secured by residential real estate that at origination typically included some form of limited borrower documentation requirements as compared with more traditional loans. The Company no longer originates limited documentation loans. With respect to junior lien loans, to the extent known by the Company, if a related senior lien loan would be on nonaccrual status because of payment delinquency, even if such senior lien loan was not owned by the Company, the junior lien loan or line that is owned by the Company is placed on nonaccrual status. In monitoring the credit quality of its home equity portfolio for purposes of determining the allowance for credit losses, the Company reviews delinquency and nonaccrual information and considers recent charge-off experience. When evaluating individual home equity loans and lines of credit for charge-off and for purposes of determining the allowance for credit losses, the Company considers the required repayment of any first lien positions related to collateral property. Information about the location of nonaccrual loans secured by residential real estate at December 31, 2024 is presented in Table 21.
Table 21
NONACCRUAL LOANS SECURED BY RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE
| December 31, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonaccrual | |||
| (Dollars in millions) | OutstandingBalances | Balances | Percent ofOutstandingBalances |
| Residential mortgage loans (a): | |||
| New York | $6,898 | $120 | 1.74% |
| Mid-Atlantic (b) | 7,229 | 84 | 1.16 |
| New England (c) | 6,090 | 53 | .87 |
| Other | 2,949 | 22 | .76 |
| Total | $23,166 | $279 | 1.20% |
| First lien home equity loans and lines of credit: | |||
| New York | $769 | $15 | 1.92% |
| Mid-Atlantic (b) | 908 | 21 | 2.33 |
| New England (c) | 435 | 5 | 1.26 |
| Other | 15 | 3 | 17.06 |
| Total | $2,127 | $44 | 2.07% |
| Junior lien home equity loans and lines of credit: | |||
| New York | $828 | $15 | 1.76% |
| Mid-Atlantic (b) | 984 | 15 | 1.53 |
| New England (c) | 622 | 7 | 1.15 |
| Other | 31 | — | .85 |
| Total | $2,465 | $37 | 1.50% |
(a)Includes $791 million of limited documentation first lien mortgage loans with nonaccrual loan balances totaling $59 million.
(b)Includes Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.
(c)Includes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont.
Factors that influence the Company’s credit loss experience include overall economic conditions affecting businesses and consumers, generally, but also residential and commercial real estate valuations, in particular, given the size of the Company’s real estate loan portfolios. Commercial real estate valuations can be highly subjective, as they are based upon many assumptions. Such valuations can be significantly affected over relatively short periods of time by changes in business climate, economic conditions, interest rates and, in many cases, the results of operations of businesses and other occupants of the real property. Similarly, residential real estate valuations can be impacted by housing trends, the availability of financing at reasonable interest rates and general economic conditions affecting consumers.
Consumer loans not secured by residential real estate are generally charged-off when the loans are 91 to 180 days past due, depending on whether the loan is collateralized and the status of repossession activities with respect to such collateral. A comparative summary of consumer loans in nonaccrual status by product is presented in Table 22.
Table 22
NONACCRUAL CONSUMER LOANS
| December 31, | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||
| (Dollars in millions) | Nonaccrual Loans | Percent of Outstanding Balances | Nonaccrual Loans | Percent of Outstanding Balances | Nonaccrual Loans | Percent of Outstanding Balances |
| Home equity lines and loans | $81 | 1.77% | $81 | 1.74% | $85 | 1.69% |
| Recreational finance | 31 | .25 | 36 | .35 | 45 | .49 |
| Automobile | 12 | .25 | 14 | .36 | 40 | .88 |
| Other | 55 | 2.49 | 52 | 2.55 | 49 | 2.43 |
| Total | $179 | .74% | $183 | .89% | $219 | 1.06% |
Net charge-offs of commercial and industrial loans and leases in 2024 increased $200 million from 2023, reflecting higher net charge-offs of loans to the manufacturing and service industries and recreational finance dealers, and equipment finance loans and leases. The lower level of net charge-offs of permanent commercial real estate loans in 2024 as compared with 2023 reflects net charge-offs of loans secured by office properties and health services facilities as well as loans to real estate development and management companies in 2023. Consumer loan net charge-offs increased in 2024 as compared with 2023 across major portfolio types, exclusive of home equity lines and loans. A summary of net charge-offs by loan type and as a percentage of such average loans is presented in Table 23.
Table 23
NET CHARGE-OFF (RECOVERY) INFORMATION
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Dollars in millions) | Net Charge-Offs (Recoveries) | Percent of Average Loans | Net Charge-Offs (Recoveries) | Percent of Average Loans | Net Charge-Offs (Recoveries) | Percent of Average Loans |
| Commercial and industrial | $280 | .48% | $80 | .15% | $59 | .13% |
| Real estate: | ||||||
| Commercial | 62 | .26 | 231 | .88 | 47 | .18 |
| Residential builder and developer | — | — | 2 | .21 | (3) | -.21 |
| Other commercial construction | 14 | .24 | 8 | .11 | (7) | -.09 |
| Residential | — | — | 3 | .01 | 2 | .01 |
| Consumer: | ||||||
| Home equity lines and loans | — | — | — | .01 | (1) | -.02 |
| Recreational finance | 90 | .80 | 51 | .55 | 21 | .25 |
| Automobile | 20 | .44 | 7 | .18 | 1 | .02 |
| Other | 89 | 4.22 | 59 | 2.82 | 41 | 2.23 |
| Total | $555 | .41% | $441 | .33% | $160 | .13% |
Management determines the allowance for credit losses under accounting guidance that requires estimating the amount of current expected credit losses over the remaining contractual term of the loan and lease portfolio. A description of the methodologies used by the Company to estimate its allowance for credit losses can be found in note 4 of Notes to Financial Statements.
In establishing the allowance for credit losses, the Company estimates losses attributable to specific troubled credits identified through both normal and targeted credit review processes and also estimates losses for other loans and leases with similar risk characteristics on a collective basis. For purposes of determining the level of the allowance for credit losses, the Company evaluates its loan and lease portfolio by type. At the time of the Company’s analysis regarding the determination of the allowance for credit losses as of December 31, 2024 concerns existed about the impact of elevated levels of inflation and potential increases in unemployment on the discretionary income and purchasing power of consumers, which could impact their ability to service existing debt obligations; slower economic growth in future quarters; the volatile nature of global markets and international economic conditions that could impact the U.S. economy; uncertainty related to Federal Reserve positioning of monetary policy; potential changes to federal taxation rates; the impact of international trade policies on domestic businesses; downward pressures on commercial real estate values, especially in the office sector; elevated interest rates impacting the ability of commercial borrowers to refinance maturing debt obligations; and the extent to which borrowers may be negatively affected by general economic conditions.
The Company generally estimates current expected credit losses on loans with similar risk characteristics on a collective basis. To estimate expected losses, the Company utilizes statistically developed models to project principal balances over the remaining contractual lives of the loan portfolios and determine estimated credit losses through a reasonable and supportable forecast period. The Company’s approach for estimating current expected credit losses for loans and leases at each reporting date included utilizing macroeconomic assumptions to project losses over a two-year reasonable and supportable forecast period. Subsequent to the forecast period, the Company reverted to longer-term historical loss experience, over a period of one year, to estimate expected credit losses over the remaining contractual life. In determining the allowance for credit losses, the Company may adjust forecasted loss estimates for inherent limitations or biases in the models as well as for other factors that may not be adequately considered in its quantitative methodologies including the impact of portfolio concentrations, imprecision in economic forecasts, geopolitical conditions and other risk factors that influence the loss estimation process. At each of December 31, 2024 and 2023, the Company qualitatively adjusted credit loss estimates for inherent limitations in the ability to assess real-time changes in commercial borrower performance and for environmental influences affecting certain loan portfolios. Qualitative adjustments, primarily related to portfolio exposures to certain commercial and industrial borrowers, commercial real estate loans secured by office properties and recreational finance consumer loans, partially contributed to the increased allowance for credit losses at December 31, 2024 as compared with December 31, 2023.
Forward-looking estimates of certain macroeconomic variables are determined by the M&T Scenario Review Committee, which is comprised of senior management business leaders and economists. The weighted-average of macroeconomic assumptions utilized as of December 31, 2024, 2023 and 2022 are presented in Table 24 and were based on information available at or near the time the Company was preparing its estimate of expected credit losses as of those dates.
Table 24
ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
| December 31, 2024 · December 31, 2023 · December 31, 2022 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 · Year 2 · Cumulative · Year 1 · Year 2 · Cumulative · Year 1 · Year 2 · Cumulative | |||||||||||||
| National unemployment rate | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | |||||||
| Real GDP growth rate | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3.0% | .9 | 1.9 | 2.8% | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.5% | ||||
| Commercial real estate price index growth/decline rate | -2.9 | 1.4 | -1.4 | -9.1 | 4.8 | -4.5 | -1.3 | 3.3 | 1.9 | ||||
| Home price index growth/ decline rate | -.1 | 2.4 | 2.3 | -3.2 | -.1 | -3.3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -6.2 | ||||
With respect to economic forecasts, the Company assessed the likelihood of alternative economic scenarios during the two-year reasonable and supportable forecast period. Generally, an increase in unemployment rate or a decrease in any of the rate of change in GDP, commercial real estate prices or home prices could have an adverse impact on expected credit losses and may result in an increase to the allowance for credit losses. Forward-looking economic forecasts are subject to inherent imprecision and future outcomes may differ materially from forecasted events. In consideration of such uncertainty, the alternative economic scenarios shown in Table 25 were considered to estimate the possible impact on modeled credit losses.
Table 25
ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES SENSITIVITIES
| December 31, 2024 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|
| Potential downside economic scenario: | |||
| National unemployment rate | 7.0% | 8.0% | |
| Real GDP growth/decline rate | -2.4 | 1.7 | -.7% |
| Commercial real estate price index decline rate | -14.8 | -6.0 | -20.0 |
| Home price index growth/decline rate | -9.3 | 2.3 | -7.2 |
| Potential upside economic scenario: | |||
| National unemployment rate | 3.4 | 3.2 | |
| Real GDP growth rate | 3.3 | 2.0 | 5.4 |
| Commercial real estate price index growth rate | 2.0 | 4.7 | 6.8 |
| Home price index growth rate | 4.5 | 4.3 | 9.0 |
| (Dollars in millions) | Impact to Modeled Credit Losses Increase (Decrease) |
|---|---|
| Potential downside economic scenario | $364 |
| Potential upside economic scenario | (118) |
These examples are only a few of the numerous possible economic scenarios that could be utilized in assessing the sensitivity of expected credit losses. The estimated impacts on credit losses in such scenarios pertain only to modeled credit losses and do not include consideration of other factors the Company may evaluate when determining its allowance for credit losses. As a result, it is possible that the Company may, at another point in time, reach different conclusions regarding credit loss estimates. The Company’s process for determining the allowance for credit losses undergoes quarterly and periodic evaluations by independent risk management personnel, which among many other considerations, evaluate the reasonableness of management’s methodology and significant assumptions. Further information about the Company’s methodology to estimate expected credit losses is included in note 4 of Notes to Financial Statements.
A comparative allocation of the allowance for credit losses for each of the past three year ends is presented in Table 26. Amounts were allocated to specific loan categories based on information available to management at the time of each year-end assessment and using the methodologies described herein. Variations in the allocation of the allowance by loan category as a percent of those loans reflect changes in management’s estimate of credit losses in light of economic developments. Furthermore, the Company’s allowance is general in nature and is available to absorb losses from any loan or lease category. Additional information about the allowance for credit losses is included in note 4 of Notes to Financial Statements.
Table 26
ALLOCATION OF THE ALLOWANCE FOR CREDIT LOSSES TO LOAN CATEGORIES
| December 31, | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| (Dollars in millions) | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
| Commercial and industrial | $769 | $620 | $568 |
| Commercial real estate | 599 | 764 | 611 |
| Residential real estate | 108 | 116 | 115 |
| Consumer | 708 | 629 | 631 |
| Total | $2,184 | $2,129 | $1,925 |
| As a percent of loans and leases: | |||
| Commercial and industrial | 1.25% | 1.09% | 1.09% |
| Commercial real estate | 2.24 | 2.31 | 1.73 |
| Residential real estate | .47 | .50 | .48 |
| Consumer | 2.93 | 3.03 | 3.07 |
| Total | 1.61 | 1.59 | 1.46 |
Management has assessed that the allowance for credit losses at December 31, 2024 appropriately reflected expected credit losses inherent in the portfolio as of that date. The increase in the allowance for credit losses as a percent of loans and leases outstanding from December 31, 2023 to December 31, 2024 reflects a higher level of credit losses expected on certain commercial borrowers and growth in consumer recreational finance loans. Included in the allocation of the allowance for credit losses were reserves for loans secured by office properties of 4.70% at December 31, 2024 and 4.37% at December 31, 2023. The level of the allowance reflects management’s evaluation of the loan and lease portfolio using the methodology and considering the factors as described herein. Should the various economic forecasts and credit factors considered by management in establishing the allowance for credit losses change and should management’s assessment of losses in the loan portfolio also change, the level of the allowance as a percent of loans could increase or decrease in future periods. The reported level of the allowance for credit losses reflects management’s evaluation of the loan and lease portfolio as of each respective date.
The ratio of the allowance for credit losses to total nonaccrual loans at the end of 2024 and 2023 was 129% and 98%, respectively. Given the Company’s general position as a secured lender and its practice of charging off loan balances when collection is deemed doubtful, that ratio and changes in the ratio are generally not an indicative measure of the adequacy of the Company’s allowance for credit losses, nor does management rely upon that ratio in assessing the adequacy of the Company’s allowance for credit losses.
The text of this filing, as the company filed it with the SEC, without its images or exhibits. This is not investment advice.