Carlyle Group Inc.
For the period ended Sep 30, 2025. Filed Nov 7, 2025.
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A company's report for each of its first three quarters. The financial statements are not audited. It shows how the business has moved since the last annual report, and what management says changed.
Sep 30, 2025 · Filed Nov 7, 2025
CG$39.70-0.7%Stored close · as of Nov 6, 2026
What changed in Management’s Discussion and Analysis?
Read the current filingPrevious report: 10-Q
Period ended 2025-06-30; filed 2025-08-08.
0001527166-25-000104
Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of OperationsCurrent report: 10-Q
Period ended 2025-09-30; filed 2025-11-07.
0001527166-25-000125
Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of OperationsThe baseline is this issuer’s latest earlier reporting period of the same form that was filed before the current report. A previous 10-Q is a different quarter, not a year-over-year comparison. Amendments are excluded.
Compared 1476 previous paragraphs and 1503 current paragraphs.
913 unchanged; 287 reworded; 282 added; 259 removed; 17 previous and 21 current paragraphs rearranged.
Tables are not compared: 48 previous and 48 current tables excluded. Dates, whitespace, punctuation and numbering changes are ignored; changes to financial figures remain significant.
A changed paragraph is not evidence that risk increased or decreased. An unchanged paragraph does not establish that risk stayed the same.
Added paragraphs (282)
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Global Private Equity segment had$163 billion in AUM and$101 billion in Fee-earning AUM.
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had$208 billion in AUM and$167 billion in Fee-earning AUM.
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commenced investment activity.
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(7)Includes Carlyle AlpInvest Private Markets (CAPM), Carlyle AlpInvest Private Markets Secondaries (CAPS), and Mezzanine funds.
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The third quarter of 2025 was one of continued optimism across markets. In the U.S., the S&P 500 and NASDAQ
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sustained their upward climb, returning 8% and 11%, respectively. Broad enthusiasm for AI continues to drive sharp price
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action, with just ten stocks accounting for 40% of U.S. stock market capitalization, the highest degree of concentration on
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record. Moreover, eight of those companies operate in roughly the same sector and the earnings prospects of seven of them are
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highly leveraged to AI. Relatively modest declines in data center capacity utilization, or extensions of AI monetization
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timelines, could be enough to shift major stock market indexes. Stocks also performed well elsewhere. European stocks had a
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better third quarter than second quarter, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up over 4%, compared to a 1% return in the respective periods;
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meanwhile the Shanghai Composite and Nikkei 225 returned 13% and 11%, respectively, in the third quarter.
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As of the end of the third quarter, U.S. public equity multiples were 20–30% above their 10-year average. Since the
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pandemic, stock performance has become more divorced from traditional business quality metrics, such as top-line growth,
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profit margins, and the stability of earnings over the cycle. Over the past five years, investors would have outperformed a
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quality long portfolio by shorting a basket of stocks of the highest quality businesses, a notable inversion of historical patterns.
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Much of this change is the result of the prevalence in public markets of both passive fund flows and short-term oriented retail
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investors. The reduced role of institutional active investing as a share of overall public market activity has dampened
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meaningful price discovery. By contrast, the frictions associated with exiting positions help to insulate private markets from
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similar effects. With transaction prices set on the basis of underwritten return expectations over multiyear holding periods,
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private markets abide by arithmetic constraints absent from listed markets. These constraints help to ensure that prices remain
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tied to fundamentals, rather than liquidity flows, and that returns stem from earnings growth, rather than short-horizon
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momentum. This discipline has been reflected in ongoing private equity transactions; across the U.S. buyout universe, median
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purchase price multiples are still in line with the 10-year historical average.
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Our proprietary portfolio data indicate U.S. economic underlying growth is resilient and expanded at an annualized rate
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of roughly 2.7% in the third quarter. Household spending regained momentum, dominated by higher income households
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buoyed by a surging stock market and insulated from higher rates through mortgages fixed at below-market rates. Growth was
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also supported by business investment, which advanced at an annualized rate of nearly 5% over the quarter, powered by a
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concentrated surge in AI‑related outlays. This includes investments spanning data center construction, graphics processing unit
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(GPU) and server procurement, spending on related applications, and power and generation capacity. These investments—
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though a relatively small slice of gross domestic product (GDP)—account for roughly 30–40% of overall growth. Crucially, the
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financing mix skews heavily toward internally‑generated cash flows from mega‑cap technology firms, limiting the exposure to
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higher interest rates.
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Despite a steady economic outlook in the U.S., our portfolio data suggest that U.S. job growth has slowed with monthly
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payroll gains during the third quarter averaging only 15,000–20,000. This slowdown may reflect both the impact of narrower
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operating margins—likely due to tariffs—as well as a shrinking labor supply. Though most analysts assumed that the cost of
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tariffs would manifest as higher consumer prices, inflation rates across affected categories have not yet matched what would be
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implied by tariff revenue as some companies have absorbed higher tariffs in fear of weakened demand resulting from price
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increases. At the same time, the shift to tighter immigration policy has sharply reduced U.S. labor force growth, with net
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immigration near zero this year. Given that the domestic population is expected to grow just 14 basis points in 2025, only
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Global Private Equity segment had$165 billion in AUM and$102 billion in Fee-earning AUM.
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$203 billion in AUM and$163 billion in Fee-earning AUM.
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investment activity.
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(7)Includes Mezzanine and Carlyle AlpInvest Private Markets (CAPM) funds.
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The second quarter of 2025 ended very differently from the way it started. Just two days into the period, markets were
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roiled by higher than expected “Liberation Day” tariffs, driving the S&P 500 down more than 12% peak-to-trough over the
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following six days. Yet, financial markets ultimately performed well, as tariff rates were temporarily reduced and the hard
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economic data, while lackluster, held up. In the United States, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended the quarter up 10.6% and
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17.6%, respectively, outperforming many other global benchmarks (1%, 2.9%, and 7.9% for the Euro Stoxx 50, Shanghai
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Composite, and DAX, respectively; the Nikkei 225 outperformed the S&P 500 with a 13.7% return). While employment
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growth was sluggish in the U.S. during the second quarter, the unemployment rate was roughly unchanged at quarter-end
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thanks in large part to a simultaneously shrinking labor force. Front-loaded inventories and longer-term supply contracts made
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it possible for many businesses to maintain pricing and production schedules without sacrificing margins. Looking ahead,
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however, prices, output, and labor demand will likely adjust more than has been observed thus far as inventory stocks dwindle
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and fixed contracts approach expiration. Indeed, early clues of what might be yet to come were visible in the June inflation
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report, where prices for goods with high import exposure surged (e.g., toy and appliance prices rose 15% and 34%,
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respectively, at an annualized rate over the quarter). While trade negotiations have produced tentative agreements with a
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handful of countries, the end-state tariff rate for many U.S. trading partners remains unclear. Several nations currently face
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potential levies of as much as 25-50% on their exports to the U.S. and important inputs to domestic U.S. producers (copper
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products, steel and aluminum) may shoulder 50% tariffs. While few expect a full implementation of the initial (and highest)
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“reciprocal” rates, current U.S. economy-wide effective tariff rates in place are already at 13%, a more than 10 percentage point
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increase over 2024’s level, representing an implicit tax increase of over 1% of GDP. This fundamental change in trade policy
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still imposes risks to corporate profit margins and broader global growth in subsequent quarters. Companies that rely on key
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components and supplies from regions with high tariff rates may see their operating performance materially impacted, while
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stretched consumers and a general softening in global growth may erode the financial performance of even those companies
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with minimal trade dependence.
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Perhaps the biggest counterweight to trade-policy headwinds is ongoing or planned fixed investment. In the U.S., the
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relentless surge in artificial intelligence (AI)-related capital expenditures accounted for over half of U.S. GDP growth in the
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first half of the year, with order backlogs growing at annual rates of 35–60%—a powerful support for both corporate investment
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and overall output amid tariff uncertainty. This AI-related spend should also bolster business investment in Japan, even while
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its auto sector faces headwinds from U.S. tariffs. In Europe, a pivot towards “military Keynesianism” could unlock upwards of
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€1.5 trillion of new capex into defense, infrastructure, and energy over the next decade and, in turn, drive both productivity and
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real output growth higher. In the second quarter, China’s economy performed remarkably well, expanding at a 4.5% annual rate
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thanks to strong industrial production and export growth despite the U.S.’s punitive tariffs on Chinese goods; China has quickly
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succeeded in finding new export destinations, primarily Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam. However, exports to these
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markets are not typically for domestic consumption (goods intended for domestic consumption only account for about 10% of
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Vietnam’s imports from China). The prospect of broader tariffs on Asian imports with Chinese value-added has therefore
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prompted many management teams to plan to relocate supply chains to Europe, with associated potential economic upside for
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that region. India’s relatively large consumer market, strong manufacturing base in select sectors (e.g., smartphones, automotive
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components), and growing policy emphasis on attracting foreign direct investment have also positioned it as a promising
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credit, cross-platform credit products, and global capital markets. As of June 30, 2025, our Global Credit segment had
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credit, cross-platform credit products, and global capital markets. As of September 30, 2025, our Global Credit segment
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June 30, 2025, our Carlyle AlpInvest segment had$97 billion in AUM and$60 billion in Fee-earning AUM.
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September 30, 2025, our Carlyle AlpInvest segment had$102 billion in AUM and$64 billion in Fee-earning AUM.
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management of$465 billion as of June 30, 2025 for each of our three global business segments (in billions):
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management of$474 billion as of September 30, 2025 for each of our three global business segments (in billions):
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Note: All amounts shown represent total assets under management as of June 30, 2025, and totals may not sum due to rounding. In addition,
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Note: All amounts shown represent total assets under management as of September 30, 2025, and totals may not sum due to rounding. In
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certain carry funds included herein may not be included in fund performance if they have not made an initial capital call or commenced
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addition, certain carry funds included herein may not be included in fund performance if they have not made an initial capital call or
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across our platform and realized proceeds of$7.6 billion in our traditional carry funds during the second quarter, over 50%
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across our platform and realized proceeds of$6.1 billion in our traditional carry funds during the third quarter. Our carry fund
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Our carry fund portfolio appreciated 2% in thesecond quarter of 2025, continuing to show relative stability against a
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portfolio appreciated 2% in thethird quarter, continuing to show relative stability against a backdrop of volatility in the global
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total Global Credit remaining fair value as of June 30, 2025) appreciated 3% in thesecond quarter, while carry funds in our
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11% of the total Global Credit remaining fair value as of September 30, 2025, appreciated 4% in thethird quarter. Carry funds
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Carlyle AlpInvest segment appreciated 2% in thesecond quarter.
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in our Carlyle AlpInvest segment appreciated 2% in thethird quarter.
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We had$13.4 billion in inflows in thesecond quarter of 2025 and$50.6 billion in inflows over the last twelve months as
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We had$16.9 billion in inflows in thethird quarter of 2025 and$58.7 billion in inflows over the last twelve months as of
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of June 30, 2025, continuing the momentum on the first quarter amidst a period of significant market uncertainty.
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September 30, 2025, continuing the momentum from the first half of the year against a backdrop of significant market
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In July 2025, our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of$0.35 per share to common stockholders of record
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In October 2025, our Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of$0.35 per share to common stockholders of
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at the close of business on August 18, 2025, payable on August 28, 2025.
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record at the close of business on November 10, 2025, payable on November 19, 2025.
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Investment income. Investment income consists of our performance allocations as well as the realized and unrealized
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Investment income (loss). Investment income (loss) consists of our performance allocations as well as the realized and
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gains and losses resulting from our equity method investments and other principal investments.
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unrealized gains and losses resulting from our equity method investments and other principal investments.
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entitle us to an allocation ofincome equal to 55.0% of the management fee related revenues earned by NGP Management for
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entitle us to an allocation of income equal to 55.0% of the management fee related revenues earned by NGP Management for
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do we direct the operations of anyof NGP’s portfolio companies. While we have consent rights over certain major actions by
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do we direct the operations of any of NGP’s portfolio companies. While we have consent rights over certain major actions by
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(1)Ending balances as of June 30, 2025 and 2024 exclude$17.6 billion and$18.3 billion, respectively, of pending Fee-earning AUM for
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(1)Ending balances as of September 30, 2025 and 2024 exclude$19.1 billion and$21.0 billion, respectively, of pending Fee-earning AUM
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AUM related to the strategic advisory services agreement with Fortitude is inclusive of the net asset value of investments in
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AUM related to the strategic advisory services agreement with Fortitude are inclusive of the net asset value of investments in
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Private Markets (“CAPM”) funds, and (f) certain other structured credit products. As of June 30, 2025, our total AUM and Fee-
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Private Markets (“CAPM”) and Carlyle AlpInvest Private Markets Secondaries (“CAPS”) funds, and (f) certain other structured
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treated as fee related performance revenues are excluded from these metrics. As of June 30, 2025, our total AUM included
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treated as fee related performance revenues are excluded from these metrics. As of September 30, 2025, our total AUM
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$236.7 billion of Performance Fee Eligible AUM.
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included$237.9 billion of Performance Fee Eligible AUM.
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billion of total assets. The assets and liabilities of the Consolidated Funds are generally held within separate legal entities and,
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condensed consolidated financial statements. The assets and liabilities of the Consolidated Funds are generally held within
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as a result, the liabilities of the Consolidated Funds are non-recourse to us.
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and similarly the liabilities of the Consolidated Funds are non-recourse to us. As of September 30, 2025, our Consolidated
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AUM;1% of our management fees for both thethree and six months ended June 30, 2025; and 2% of our total investment
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Funds represent approximately 3% of our AUM;3% and 2% of our management fees for thethree and nine months ended
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income or loss on an unconsolidated basis for both thethree and six months ended June 30, 2025.
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September 30, 2025, respectively; and 2% of our total investment income or loss on an unconsolidated basis for both thethree
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funds we advise. However, we consolidate certain CLOs and certain other funds that we advise. As of June 30, 2025, the assets
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funds we advise. However, we consolidate certain CLOs and certain other funds that we advise, and the number of funds we are
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and liabilities of the Consolidated Funds were primarily related to our consolidated CLOs, which held approximately$9.2
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assets and liabilities of the Consolidated Funds were primarily related to our consolidated CLOs, which held approximately
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Generally, the consolidation of the Consolidated Funds has a gross-up effect on our assets, liabilities and cash flows but
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Generally, the consolidation of the Consolidated Funds has a gross-up effect on our assets, liabilities and cash flowsbut
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has no net effect on the net income attributable to the Company and equity. The majority of the net economic ownership
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has no net effect on the net income attributable to the Company. The majority of the net economic ownership interests of the
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interests of the Consolidated Funds are reflected as non-controlling interests in consolidated entities in the consolidated
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Consolidated Funds are reflected as non-controlling interests in consolidated entities in the consolidated financial statements.
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thethree and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024. The condensed consolidated financial statements have been prepared
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thethree and nine months ended September 30, 2025 and 2024. The condensed consolidated financial statements have been
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on substantially the same basis for all historical periods presented; however, the consolidated funds are not the same entities in
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prepared on substantially the same basis for all historical periods presented; however, the consolidated funds are not the same
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all periods shown due to changes in fund terms and the creation and termination of funds. As further described above, the
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entities in all periods shown due to changes in fund terms and the creation and termination of funds. As further described above,
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consolidation of these funds primarily has the impact of increasing interest and other income of Consolidated Funds, interest
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the consolidation of these funds primarily has the impact of increasing interest and other income of Consolidated Funds, interest
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Fund management fees. Fund management fees increased $86.0 million, or 16%, for thethree months ended June 30,
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Fund management fees. Fund management fees increased $50.6 million, or 9%, for thethree months ended September
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(1)The three and six months ended June 30, 2025 included approximately $19 million ofav iation catch-up subordinated management fees.
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(1)The nine months ended September 30, 2025 included approximately $19 million of aviation catch-up subordinated management fees.
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ended June 30, 2025, Fee-earning assets under management in our Carlyle AlpInvest and Global Credit segments grew 24%
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ended September 30, 2025, Fee-earning assets under management in our Carlyle AlpInvest and Global Credit segments grew
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and 5%, respectively, while Global Private Equity decreased 1%. As a result, Fund management fees increased in Carlyle
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25% and 5%, respectively, while Global Private Equity decreased 2%. As a result, Fund management fees increased in Carlyle
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Fund management fees included transaction and portfolio advisory fees, net of rebate offsets, of$45.8 million and
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Fund management fees included transaction and portfolio advisory fees, net of rebate offsets, of$21.1 million and
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condensed consolidated financial statements for further information.
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for which fees have not yet been activated.
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credit products. As of September 30, 2025, our total AUM and Fee-earning AUM included$112.9 billion and$108.1 billion,
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required to consolidate has been increasing as a result of the impacts of capital from our balance sheet invested in new products
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and our indirect interest in funds through our investment in Fortitude (see Note 4, Investments). As of September 30, 2025, the
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Business” for further discussion on our investment activity and broader market trends.
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September 30, 2025 and 2024, respectively. The effective tax rate for the three months ended September 30, 2025 and 2024
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translation at the average quarterly rate.
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real estate funds, as well as the NGP energy funds.
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“—Trends Affecting Our Business” for further discussion on our investment activity and broader market trends.
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for thethree months ended September 30, 2025, as compared to thethree months ended September 30, 2024, andincreased
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the Fortitude strategic advisory services agreement, partially offset by increases in our cross-platform credit
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opportunistic credit, and direct lending products.
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realizations across the platform, notably in our asset-backed finance products.
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ended September 30, 2025, as compared to thethree months ended September 30, 2024. Realized principal investment income
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for thethree months ended September 30, 2025, as compared to thethree months ended September 30, 2024, andincreased
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General, administrative and other indirect expenses. General, administrative and other indirect expenses increased $9.4
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million for thethree months ended September 30, 2025, as compared to thethree months ended September 30, 2024, and
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translation at the average quarterly rate.
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on our repurchase program, see Note 13, Equity, to the condensed consolidated financial statements included in this Quarterly
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representing the vesting of restricted stock units subsequent to September 30, 2025 that will participate in the common
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which fees have not yet been activated.
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further discussion on our investment activity and broader market trends.
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incentive fee related compensation is based;
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impact on net income attributable to the Company.
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effective tax rate for the three months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024 primarily comprised the 21% U.S. federal corporate
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controlling interest. The effective tax rate for the three months ended June 30, 2024 also includes an increase related to other
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II, and realizations in funds that charge fees on invested capital.
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which charge fees on invested capital; and
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•Positive foreign exchange activity of$1.9 billion reflecting the translation of our EUR- and JPY-denominated funds
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and a fee basis step-down in CIEP II.
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•Positive foreign exchange activity of$2.0 billion reflecting the translation of our EUR- and JPY-denominated funds
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($0.3 billion), and the NGP Energy funds ($0.6 billion), partially offset by depreciation in CEP V ($0.8 billion).
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months ended June 30, 2024, due to the following:
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further discussion on our investment activity and broader market trends.
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notably in our secondaries & portfolio finance funds; and
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partially offset by the impact of realizations.
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condensed consolidated financial statements included in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.