Green Plains Inc.

Previous wording

Ethanol and other products that we produce are or have been exported to Canada, Mexico, Brazil, China and other countries. In a previous term, the Trump administration significantly increased tariffs on goods imported into the United States, which in turn led to retaliatory actions on U.S. exports. In early 2025, the Trump administration announced additional tariffs on various imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, and signaled a willingness to renegotiate or withdraw from existing trade agreements. These actions have prompted actual or threatened retaliatory measures against U.S. exports, including ethanol and agricultural products in some cases. The outcome of trade negotiations or lack thereof, has had and/or may continue to have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Current wording

Ethanol and other products that we produce are or have been exported to Canada, Mexico, Brazil, China and other countries. Our business may be impacted by government policies, such as tariffs, duties, subsidies, import and export restrictions and outright embargos. In early 2025, the Trump administration announced additional tariffs on various imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, and signaled a willingness to renegotiate or withdraw from existing trade agreements. These actions have prompted actual or threatened retaliatory measures against U.S. exports, including ethanol and agricultural products in some cases. While the current administration’s efforts to counter trade barriers in certain countries may ultimately benefit the ethanol industry (such as Brazil, where U.S. ethanol has been subject to tariffs since 2020), the risk of reciprocal tariffs by other countries, including Canada and Mexico, may impede exported volumes. The outcome of trade negotiations or lack thereof, has had and/or may continue to have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Previous wording

Ethanol imports also affect domestic supply and demand. Imported ethanol is not subject to an import tariff under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), provided it satisfies the agreement’s rules of origin, which are required for preferential tariff treatment. As of early 2025, denatured ethanol for fuel use imported from Brazil and other countries subject to Most Favored Nation treatment is generally subject to a 1.9% ad valorem tariff, while undenatured ethanol is subject to a 2.5% ad valorem tariff. However, a series of executive orders issued in March and April of 2025 have introduced or proposed significant changes to U.S. trade policy, including a baseline 10% tariff on a broad range of imported goods, unless replaced by higher country-specific rates. These developments have created uncertainty around ethanol import pricing and raised the risk of retaliatory trade measures. We continue to monitor potential adjustments to tariff levels or exemptions as trade negotiations evolve. Under the RFS, sugarcane ethanol from Brazil can be used as a means for obligated parties to meet the advanced biofuel standard in addition to state level low-carbon fuel standards. Brazil is also rapidly expanding corn and corn ethanol production, which can have a lower CI score if it is produced from the second crop or “Safrinha” crop, which could be imported into the U.S. or displace our exports elsewhere globally.

Current wording

Ethanol imports also affect domestic supply and demand. Imported ethanol is not subject to an import tariff under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), provided it satisfies the agreement’s rules of origin, which are required for preferential tariff treatment. As of early 2025, denatured ethanol for fuel use imported from Brazil and other countries subject to Most Favored Nation treatment is generally subject to a 1.9% ad valorem tariff, while undenatured ethanol is subject to a 2.5% ad valorem tariff. However, a series of executive orders issued in March and April of 2025 have introduced or proposed significant changes to U.S. trade policy, including a baseline 10% tariff on a broad range of imported goods, unless replaced by higher country-specific rates. Additionally, on July 15, 2025, The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative initiated a Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s unfair trading practices. While Brazil’s tariffs on U.S. ethanol have fluctuated since 2017, they have been set at 18% since January 1, 2024. These developments have created uncertainty around ethanol import pricing and raised the risk of retaliatory trade measures. We continue to monitor potential adjustments to tariff levels or exemptions as trade negotiations evolve. Under the RFS, sugarcane ethanol from Brazil can be used as a means for obligated parties to meet the advanced biofuel standard in addition to state level low-carbon fuel standards. Brazil is also rapidly expanding corn and corn ethanol production, which can have a lower CI score if it is produced from the second crop or “Safrinha” crop, which could be imported into the U.S. or displace our exports elsewhere globally.

Previous wording

Renewable Corn Oil. Renewable corn oil is generally marketed as a low-carbon feedstock for biofuel production including renewable diesel, biodiesel and currently to a lesser extent, sustainable aviation fuel; therefore, the price of renewable corn oil is largely driven by demand for renewable diesel and biodiesel. Expanded demand from the renewable diesel and biodiesel industry due to the extended blending tax credit, new tax credits included in the IRA and growing LCFS markets in California, Oregon, Washington state or Canada, as well as customer acceptance for such fuels could impact renewable corn oil demand. In general, renewable corn oil prices follow the prices of heating oil and soybean oil, though LCFS programs incentivize the lower CI of renewable corn oil as a feedstock relative to soybean oil. Federal incentives for sustainable aviation fuel also provide higher credit values for lower CI. Other feedstocks such as used cooking oil and animal fats and tallows are scored at a lower CI than renewable corn oil under most life cycle assessment models, and these feedstocks may be preferred to renewable corn oil. Increased imports of used cooking oil could pressure all vegetable oil values lower. Decreases in the price of or demand for renewable corn oil could have an adverse impact on our business and profitability. While we believe our investments in MSC™ and other technologies have allowed us to capture more renewable corn oil from each bushel, these yields could be negatively impacted by any number of factors.

Current wording

Renewable Corn Oil. Renewable corn oil is marketed as a low-carbon feedstock for biofuel production including renewable diesel, biodiesel and currently to a lesser extent, sustainable aviation fuel. The price of renewable corn oil is largely influenced by demand for these fuels, particularly renewable diesel, as well as broader dynamics within the vegetable oil and feedstock markets. They are also impacted by margin dynamics within the renewable diesel industry and the relative pricing and availability of alternative feedstocks, domestic or imported. Expanded demand from the renewable diesel and biodiesel industry due to RVOs, new tax credits included in the IRA, growing LCFS markets in California, Oregon, Washington state or Canada as well as customer acceptance for such fuels could impact renewable corn oil demand. Recent restrictions imposed on imported feedstocks also provide benefits. In general, renewable corn oil prices follow the prices of heating oil and soybean oil but corn oil trades at a premium for its low CI score. Corn oil prices are well supported as a result of current incentives and import restrictions. If the soy complex would come under pressure due to oversupply of soybeans, corn oil prices would also be pressured. Further, if the EPA issues SREs, it could lead to downward pressure on renewable feedstock prices including corn oil.