ASSURED GUARANTY LTD

5. Contracts Accounted for as Insurance

The portfolio of outstanding exposures discussed in Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, and Note 4, Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered), includes contracts that are accounted for as insurance contracts, derivatives and consolidated FG VIEs. Amounts presented in this note relate only to contracts accounted for as insurance, unless otherwise specified. See Note 6, Contracts Accounted for as Credit Derivatives, for amounts related to CDS and Note 8, Financial Guaranty Variable Interest Entities and Consolidated Investment Vehicles, for amounts related to consolidated FG VIEs.

Premiums

Net Earned Premiums

Gross Premium Receivable,

Net of Commissions Payable on Assumed Business

Roll Forward

Approximately 69% and 70% of gross premiums receivable, net of commissions payable, at September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively, are denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar, primarily the pound sterling and euro.

The timing and cumulative amount of actual collections and net earned premiums may differ from those of expected collections and of expected net earned premiums in the table below due to factors such as foreign exchange rate fluctuations, counterparty collectability issues, accelerations, commutations, restructurings, changes in the consumer price indices, changes in expected lives and new business.

Expected Future Premium Collections and Earnings

(1) Net of assumed commissions payable.

(2) Net of reinsurance.

Selected Information for Financial Guaranty Insurance Policies with Premiums Paid in Installments

Losses and Recoveries

Loss reserves and salvage are discounted at risk-free rates for U.S. dollar denominated financial guaranty insurance obligations that ranged from 3.52% to 4.96% with a weighted average of 3.79% as of September 30, 2024 and 3.79% to 5.40% with a weighted average of 4.17% as of December 31, 2023.

The following tables provide information on net reserve (salvage), which includes loss and LAE reserves and salvage and subrogation recoverable, both net of reinsurance.

Net Reserve (Salvage) by Sector

The table below provides a reconciliation of net expected loss to be paid (recovered) for financial guaranty insurance contracts to net expected loss to be expensed. Expected loss to be paid (recovered) for financial guaranty insurance contracts differs from expected loss to be expensed due to: (i) the contra-paid, which represents the claim payments made and recoveries received that have not yet been recognized in the statements of operations; (ii) salvage and subrogation recoverable for transactions that are in a net recovery position where the Company has not yet received recoveries on claims previously paid (and therefore recognized in income but not yet received); and (iii) loss reserves that have already been established (and therefore expensed but not yet paid).

Reconciliation of Net Expected Loss to be Paid (Recovered)

to Net Expected Loss to be Expensed

The following table provides a schedule of the expected timing of net expected losses to be expensed. The amount and timing of actual loss and LAE may differ from the estimates shown below due to factors such as accelerations, commutations, changes in expected lives and updates to loss estimates. This table excludes amounts related to FG VIEs, which are eliminated in consolidation.

Net Expected Loss to be Expensed

The following table presents the loss and LAE (benefit) reported in the condensed consolidated statements of operations by sector for insurance contracts.

Loss and LAE (Benefit) by Sector

The following tables provide information on financial guaranty insurance contracts categorized as BIG.

BIG Transaction Loss Summary

BIG Transaction Loss Summary

(1)A risk represents the aggregate of the financial guaranty policies that share the same revenue source for purposes of making debt service payments.

(2)Includes amounts related to FG VIEs.

(3)Represents expected inflows from future payments by obligors pursuant to restructuring agreements, settlements, excess spread on any underlying collateral and other estimated recoveries. Potential recoveries also include recoveries on certain investment grade credits, related mainly to exposures that were previously BIG and for which claims have been paid in the past.