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ASSURED GUARANTY LTD

For the period ended Sep 30, 2024. Filed Nov 12, 2024.

View on SEC.gov

About this filing

A company's report for each of its first three quarters. The financial statements are not audited. It shows how the business has moved since the last annual report, and what management says changed.

Sep 30, 2024 · Filed Nov 12, 2024

AGO$73.45+2.4%Stored close · as of Nov 6, 2026

What changed in Management’s Discussion and Analysis?

Read the current filing

The baseline is this issuer’s latest earlier reporting period of the same form that was filed before the current report. A previous 10-Q is a different quarter, not a year-over-year comparison. Amendments are excluded.

Compared 106 previous paragraphs and 101 current paragraphs.

60 unchanged; 34 reworded; 7 added; 7 removed; 5 previous and 0 current paragraphs rearranged.

Tables are not compared: 5 previous and 5 current tables excluded. Dates, whitespace, punctuation and numbering changes are ignored; changes to financial figures remain significant.

A changed paragraph is not evidence that risk increased or decreased. An unchanged paragraph does not establish that risk stayed the same.

Added paragraphs (7)

Current report

Third Quarter 2024 Compared with Third Quarter 2023

Current report

These increases were offset in part by:

Current report

•the gain associated with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction, net of transaction expenses, of $241 million (pre-tax) in third quarter 2023.

Current report

Nine Months 2024 Compared with Nine Months 2023

Current report

•the gain associated with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction, net of transaction expenses, of $215 million (pre-tax) in nine months 2023,

Current report

•lower net investment income primarily due to lower income on Loss Mitigation Securities, which were partially offset by higher short-term income, and

Current report

•higher foreign exchange gains on remeasurement of $43 million in nine months 2024, compared with $9 million in nine months 2023.
Removed paragraphs (7)

Previous report

Second Quarter 2024 Compared with Second Quarter 2023

Previous report

•lower fair value gains on trading securities in second quarter 2024.

Previous report

•employee compensation and operating expenses associated with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction of $24 million in second quarter 2023.

Previous report

Six Months 2024 Compared with Six Months 2023

Previous report

•foreign exchange losses on remeasurement in six months 2024, compared with gains in six months 2023,

Previous report

•lower fair value gains on CIVs, and

Previous report

•employee compensation and operating expenses associated with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction of $31 million in six months 2023.
Reworded paragraphs (34)

Previous wording

(i) significant changes in inflation, interest rates, the world’s credit markets or segments thereof, credit spreads, foreign exchange rates or general economic conditions, including the possibility of a recession or stagflation; (ii) geopolitical risk, terrorism and political violence risk, including those arising out of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and intentional or accidental escalation between The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia, conflict in the Middle East and confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program, the polarized political environment of the 2024 United States (U.S.) presidential election and U.S. – China strategic competition; (iii) cybersecurity risk and the impacts of artificial intelligence, machine learning and other technological advances, including potentially increasing the risks of malicious cyber attacks, dissemination of misinformation, and disruption of markets; (iv) the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown, payment defaults on the debt of the U.S. government or instruments issued, insured or guaranteed by related institutions, agencies or instrumentalities, and downgrades to their credit ratings; (v) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, including stresses in the financial condition of banking institutions in the U.S. and the possibility that increasing participation of unregulated financial institutions in these markets results in losses or lower valuations of assets, reduced liquidity and credit and/or contraction of these markets, that adversely affect repayment rates of insured obligors, Assured Guaranty’s insurance loss or recovery experience, or investments of Assured Guaranty; (vi) reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty’s insurance; (vii) the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or liquidity claims on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; (viii) insured losses, including losses with respect to related legal proceedings, in excess of those expected by Assured Guaranty or the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates for insurance exposures, including as a result of the final resolution of Assured Guaranty’s Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) exposure or the amounts recovered on securities received in connection with the resolution of Puerto Rico exposures already resolved; (ix) the impact of Assured Guaranty satisfying its obligations under insurance policies with respect to legacy insured Puerto Rico bonds; (x) increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry, nonpayment insurance and other forms of capital saving or risk syndication available to banks and insurers; (xi) the possibility that investments made by Assured Guaranty for i…

Excerpt shortened here; the source contains the full paragraph.

Current wording

(i) significant changes in inflation, interest rates, the world’s credit markets or segments thereof, credit spreads, foreign exchange rates or general economic conditions, including the possibility of a recession or stagflation; (ii) geopolitical risk, terrorism and political violence risk, including those arising out of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and intentional or accidental escalation between The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia, conflict in the Middle East and confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program, the polarized political environment in the United States (U.S.), and U.S. – China strategic competition; (iii) cybersecurity risk and the impacts of artificial intelligence, machine learning and other technological advances, including potentially increasing the risks of malicious cyber attacks, dissemination of misinformation, and disruption of markets; (iv) the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown, payment defaults on the debt of the U.S. government or instruments issued, insured or guaranteed by related institutions, agencies or instrumentalities, and downgrades to their credit ratings; (v) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, including stresses in the financial condition of banking institutions in the U.S. and the possibility that increasing participation of unregulated financial institutions in these markets results in losses or lower valuations of assets, reduced liquidity and credit and/or contraction of these markets, that adversely affect repayment rates of insured obligors, Assured Guaranty’s insurance loss or recovery experience, or investments of Assured Guaranty; (vi) reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty’s insurance; (vii) the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls, difficulties in obtaining additional financing or other factors will result in credit losses or liquidity claims on obligations of state, territorial and local governments, their related authorities, public corporations and other obligors that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; (viii) insured losses, including losses with respect to related legal proceedings, in excess of those expected by Assured Guaranty or the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates for insurance exposures, including as a result of the final resolution of Assured Guaranty’s Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) exposure or the amounts recovered on securities received in connection with the resolution of Puerto Rico exposures already resolved; (ix) the impact of Assured Guaranty satisfying its obligations under insurance policies with respect to legacy insured Puerto Rico bonds; (x) the possibility that underwriting insurance in new jurisdictions and/or covering new sectors or classes of business does not result in the benefits anticipated or subjects Assured Guaranty to negative consequences; (xi) increased …

Excerpt shortened here; the source contains the full paragraph.

Previous wording

The Company maintains an internet web site atwww.assuredguaranty.com. The Company makes available, free of charge, on its web site (underwww.assuredguaranty.com/sec-filings) the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, Current Reports on Form 8-K, and amendments to those reports filed or furnished pursuant to Section 13 (a) or 15 (d) of the Exchange Act as soon as reasonably practicable after the Company files such material with, or furnishes it to, the SEC. The Company also makes available, free of charge, through its web site (underwww.assuredguaranty.com/governance) links to the Company’s Corporate Governance Guidelines, the Company’s Global Code of Ethics, AGL’s Bye-Laws and the charters for the committees of its Board of Directors. In addition, the SEC maintains a web site (atwww.sec.gov) that contains reports, proxy and information statements, and other information regarding issuers that file electronically with the SEC.

Current wording

The Company maintains an internet web site atwww.assuredguaranty.com. The Company makes available, free of charge, on its web site (underwww.assuredguaranty.com/sec-filings) the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, Current Reports on Form 8-K, and amendments to those reports filed or furnished pursuant to Section 13(a) or 15(d) of the Exchange Act as soon as reasonably practicable after the Company files such material with, or furnishes it to, the SEC. The Company also makes available, free of charge, through its web site (underwww.assuredguaranty.com/governance) links to the Company’s Corporate Governance Guidelines, the Company’s Global Code of Ethics, AGL’s Bye-Laws and the charters for the committees of its Board of Directors. In addition, the SEC maintains a web site (atwww.sec.gov) that contains reports, proxy and information statements, and other information regarding issuers that file electronically with the SEC.

Previous wording

In the Insurance segment, the Company provides credit protection products to the U.S. and non-U.S. public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets. Until July 1, 2023, the Company served as investment advisor to collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and opportunity funds, through Assured Investment Management LLC (AssuredIM LLC) and its investment management affiliates (together with AssuredIM LLC, AssuredIM). Beginning July 1, 2023, the

Current wording

In the Insurance segment, the Company provides credit protection products to the U.S. and non-U.S. public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets. Until July 1, 2023, the Company served as investment advisor to collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and opportunity funds, through Assured Investment Management LLC (AssuredIM LLC) and its investment management affiliates (together with AssuredIM LLC, AssuredIM). Beginning July 1, 2023, the Company participates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation.

Previous wording

The Corporate division primarily consists of: (i) interest expense and any losses on the extinguishment of the debt of Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) and Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH) (the U.S. Holding Companies); and (ii) other corporate operating expenses of AGL and the U.S. Holding Companies. The Other category in the segment tables below primarily includes the effect of consolidating FG VIEs and CIVs (FG VIE and CIV consolidation), intersegment eliminations and, prior to July 1, 2023, the reclassification of reimbursable fund expenses. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 2, Segment Information.

Current wording

The Corporate division primarily consists of: (i) interest expense and any losses on the extinguishment of the debt of Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) and Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH) (the U.S. Holding Companies); (ii) other corporate operating expenses of AGL and the U.S. Holding Companies, and (iii) beginning in the three-month period ended September 30, 2024 (third quarter 2024), equity in earnings from certain alternative investments that were transferred from AG to AGMH as part of the share redemption that occurred on August 5, 2024 in connection with the merger of AGM with and into AG, as discussed below. The Other category in the segment tables below primarily includes the effect of consolidating FG VIEs and CIVs (FG VIE and CIV consolidation), intersegment eliminations and, prior to July 1, 2023, the reclassification of reimbursable fund expenses. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 2, Segment Information.

Previous wording

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the three-month period ended June 30, 2024 (second quarter 2024), compared to an increase of 1.4% in the three-month period ended March 31, 2024 (first quarter 2024), according to the second quarter 2024 advance estimate news release issued by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. At the end of June 2024, the U.S. unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, stood at 4.1%, higher than where it stood at the end of first quarter 2024 at 3.8%. The Company believes a more robust economy makes it less likely that obligors whose obligations it guarantees will default.

Current wording

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter 2024, compared to an increase of 3.0% in the three-month period ended June 30, 2024 (second quarter 2024), according to the third quarter 2024 advance estimate news release issued by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. At the end of September 2024, the U.S. unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, stood at 4.1%, the same as where it stood at the end of second quarter 2024. The Company believes a more robust economy makes it less likely that obligors whose obligations it guarantees will default.

Previous wording

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the inflation rate in the U.S. before seasonal adjustment for the 12-month period ending June 2024, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, was 3.0%, as compared to 3.5% for the 12-month period ending March 2024. According to the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs rose 2.8% for the 12 months through June 2024, down from 3.8% for the 12 months ended March 2024. Consumer price inflation in the U.K. increases reported net par outstanding for certain U.K. exposures with approximately $22.7 billion of net par outstanding as of June 30, 2024, and also increases projected future installment premiums on the portion of such exposure that pays at least a portion of the premium on an installment basis over the term of the exposure.

Current wording

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the inflation rate in the U.S. before seasonal adjustment for the 12-month period ending September 2024, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, was 2.4%, as compared to 3.0% for the 12-month period ending June 2024. According to the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs rose 2.6 % for the 12 months through September 2024, down from 2.8% for the 12 months ended June 2024. The Company believes that higher inflation may put pressure on the budgets of obligors whose obligations it guarantees and make defaults more likely. In addition, consumer price inflation in the U.K. increases reported net par outstanding for certain U.K. exposures with approximately $24.0 billion of net par outstanding as of September 30, 2024, and also increases projected future installment premiums on the portion of such exposure that pays at least a portion of the premium on an installment basis over the term of the exposure.

Previous wording

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acknowledging the need to combat inflation, in March 2022 the FOMC began again raising the target range for the federal funds rate and stated that it would reduce its holdings of treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. From March 2022 through July 2023, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate from a range of 0% to 0.25% where it started 2022 to a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Since its July 2023 meeting, the FOMC has maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%, including through its most recent meeting held July 30-31, 2024, stating that it would continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. The FOMC has repeatedly declared that it seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the FOMC has indicated it will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks, and that it does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%. These assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Current wording

At its September 17-18, 2024 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the federal funds rate by 0.50% to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%, which was a reversal of the rate increases it had initiated in March 2022 to combat inflation. The federal funds rate is the rate at which banks lend to and borrow from each other, is the benchmark for most interest rates, and tends to influence mortgage rates. As the federal funds rate decreases, interest rates, including mortgage rates, tend to follow. At its November 6-7, 2024 meeting, the FOMC further lowered the federal funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%, stating that it seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run, and that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the FOMC has indicated it will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. These assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Previous wording

The level and direction of interest rates and credit spreads impact the Company in numerous ways. On the one hand, higher interest rates may reduce the fair value of fixed-maturity securities currently held in the Company’s investment portfolio, dampen municipal bond issuance and negatively impact the finances of some of the obligors whose payments the Company insures. On the other hand, higher interest rates increase the base on which the Company charges premium in most U.S. municipal bond transactions. Higher interest rates also are often accompanied by wider spreads, which may also increase the level of premiums it can charge for those products.

Current wording

The level and direction of interest rates and credit spreads impact the Company in numerous ways. On the one hand, lower interest rates may increase the fair value of fixed-maturity securities currently held in the Company’s investment portfolio, encourage municipal bond issuance and positively impact the finances of some of the obligors whose payments the Company insures. On the other hand, lower interest rates may decrease the base on which the Company charges up-front premium on most new U.S. municipal bond transactions and may also decrease amounts the Company can earn on fixed-maturity securities newly acquired for its investment portfolio. Lower interest rates also are often accompanied by narrower spreads, which may also decrease the level of premiums the Company can charge for those products.

Previous wording

The 30-year AAA Municipal Market Data (MMD) rate is a measure of interest rates in the Company’s largest financial guaranty insurance market, U.S. public finance. The MMD rate averaged 3.82% for the quarter ended June 2024, higher than the 3.57% average for the quarter ended March 2024, and higher than the 3.41% average for the quarter ended June 2023. Meanwhile, the difference, or credit spread, between the 30-year BBB-rated general obligation relative to the 30-year AAA MMD averaged 90 basis points (bps) in the quarter ended June 2024, which is slightly narrower than the 92 bps average for the quarter ended March 2024, and narrower than the 101 bps average for the quarter ended June 2023. The Company believes that, wider spreads could permit it to increase its premium rates on new business, and higher interest rates may also increase the amount the Company can earn on its largely fixed-maturity securities.

Current wording

The 30-year AAA Municipal Market Data (MMD) rate is a measure of interest rates in the Company’s largest financial guaranty insurance market, U.S. public finance. The MMD rate averaged 3.60% for third quarter 2024, lower than the 3.82% average for second quarter 2024, and lower than the 3.77% average for the quarter ended September 2023. Meanwhile, the difference, or credit spread, between the 30-year BBB-rated general obligation relative to the 30-year AAA MMD averaged 90 basis points (bps) in third quarter 2024, which is flat compared to the 90 bps average for second quarter 2024, and narrower than the 101 bps average for the quarter ended September 2023. The Company believes that wider spreads could permit it to increase its premium rates on new business.

Previous wording

Additionally, the Company believes that higher interest rates are discouraging some homeowners from moving as many are locked into lower mortgage interest rates at the homes in which they reside, which, in turn, is restricting housing inventory and leading to an increase in home prices as demand outpaces supply. The increase in housing prices may benefit distressed residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) the Company insures. The National Association of Realtors reported that year-over-year existing-home sales decreased 5.4% from June 2023 to June 2024, while the median existing-home sales price increased 4.1% from June 2023 ($410,100) to June 2024 ($426,900).

Current wording

According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.08% as of September 26, 2024, down from 7.31% one year ago. The Company believes that, despite recent decreases in mortgage interest rates, restricted housing inventory continues to influence home prices where demand outpaces supply. Higher housing prices may benefit distressed residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) the Company insures. The National Association of Realtors reported that year-over-year existing-home sales decreased 3.5% from September 2023 to September 2024, while the median existing-home sales price increased 3.0% from September 2023 ($392,700) to September 2024 ($404,500).

Previous wording

The low interest rate environment and tight U.S. municipal credit spreads from when the financial crisis began in 2008 through early 2020 dampened demand for bond insurance compared to the levels before the financial crisis. After the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, credit spreads initially widened as a result of market concerns about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on some municipal credits, thereby improving demand for financial guaranty insurance even in a low interest rate environment, before narrowing again in 2022. The Company believes that, over time, wider credit spreads may improve demand for bond insurance.

Current wording

The low interest rate environment and tight U.S. municipal credit spreads from when the financial crisis began in 2008 through early 2020 dampened demand for bond insurance compared with the levels before the financial crisis. After the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, credit spreads initially widened as a result of market concerns about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on some municipal credits, thereby improving demand for financial guaranty insurance even in a low interest rate environment, before narrowing again in 2022. The Company believes that, over time, wider credit spreads may improve demand for bond insurance.

Previous wording

On August 1, 2024, AGM merged with and into AG, with AG as the surviving company. Upon the merger all liabilities of AGM, including insurance policies issued or assumed by AGM, became obligations of AG. The Company believes that the combination of AG and AGM will simplify Assured Guaranty’s organizational and capital structure and grow its business. The combined company, as compared with either AG or AGM before the merger, has a larger, more highly diversified insured portfolio, a larger investment portfolio and a larger capital base, creating a more efficient capital structure and greater claims-paying resources.

Current wording

On August 1, 2024, AGM merged with and into AG, with AG as the surviving company. Upon the merger all liabilities of AGM, including insurance policies issued or assumed by AGM, became obligations of AG.

Previous wording

In addition, the combined company, as compared with either AG or AGM before the merger, has larger regulatory single risk limits. Such limits are applicable to each financial guaranty insurer for obligations issued by a single entity and backed by a single revenue source. Since the combined company has greater policyholder’s surplus and contingency reserves, as compared to standalone AG or AGM before the merger, the dollar amounts for its single risk limits on obligations issued by a single entity and backed by a single revenue source are also greater.

Current wording

The Company believes that Assured Guaranty’s simplified organizational and capital structure following the merger will help it grow its business. The combined company, as compared with either AG or AGM before the merger, has a larger, more highly diversified insured portfolio, a larger investment portfolio and a larger capital base, creating a more efficient capital structure and greater claims-paying resources. In addition, the combined company, as compared with either AG or AGM before the merger, has larger regulatory single risk limits. Such limits are applicable to each individual financial guaranty insurer for obligations issued by a single entity and backed by a single revenue source. Since the combined company has greater policyholder’s surplus and contingency reserves, as compared to standalone AG or AGM before the merger, the dollar amounts for its single risk limits on obligations issued by a single entity and backed by a single revenue source are also greater.

Previous wording

In the public finance area, the Company believes its experience and the resources it is prepared to deploy, as well as its ability to provide bond insurance or other contributions as part of a solution, result in more favorable outcomes in distressed public finance situations than would be the case without its participation. This has been illustrated by the Company’s role in negotiating various agreements in connection with the restructuring of obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations, as well as Detroit, Michigan and Stockton, California. The

Current wording

In the public finance area, the Company believes its experience and the resources it is prepared to deploy, as well as its ability to provide bond insurance or other contributions as part of a solution, result in more favorable outcomes in distressed public finance situations than would be the case without its participation. This has been illustrated by the Company’s role in negotiating various agreements in connection with the restructuring of obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations, as well as Detroit, Michigan and Stockton, California. The Company will also, where appropriate, pursue litigation to enforce its rights. For example, the Company initiated a number of legal actions to enforce its rights with respect to obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.

Previous wording

The Company is, and for several years has been, working with the servicers of some of the RMBS transactions it insures to encourage the servicers to provide alternatives to distressed borrowers that will encourage them to continue making payments on their loans to help improve the performance of the related RMBS.

Current wording

The Company is, and for several years has been, working with the servicers of some of the U.S. RMBS transactions it insures to encourage the servicers to provide alternatives to distressed borrowers that will encourage them to continue making payments on their loans to help improve the performance of the related RMBS. For public finance credits, the Company’s surveillance function monitors and proactively engages with the distressed credits to offer assistance aimed to improve operations and financial performance, including access to external consultants and other industry experts.

Previous wording

The Company may also purchase attractively priced obligations, including below-investment-grade (BIG) obligations, that it has insured and for which it had expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (Loss Mitigation Securities). The fair value of Loss Mitigation Securities as of June 30, 2024 (excluding the value of the Company’s insurance) was $465 million.

Current wording

The Company may also purchase attractively priced obligations, including below-investment-grade (BIG) obligations, that it has insured and for which it had expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (Loss Mitigation Securities). The fair value of Loss Mitigation Securities as of September 30, 2024 (excluding the value of the Company’s insurance) was $468 million.

Previous wording

From 2013 through August 6, 2024, the Company has repurchased 148 million common shares for approximately $5.2 billion, representing approximately 76% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the repurchase program in 2013. On May 2, 2024, the AGL Board of Directors (the Board) authorized the repurchase of an additional $300 million of the Company’s common shares. Under this and previous authorizations, as of August 6, 2024, the Company was authorized to purchase $275 million of its common shares. Shares may be repurchased from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. The timing, form and amount of the share repurchases under the program are at the discretion of management and will depend on a variety of factors, including funds available at the parent company, other potential uses for such funds, market conditions, the Company’s capital position, legal requirements and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the Board at any time and it does not have an expiration date. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 12, Shareholders’ Equity, for additional information about the Company’s repurchases of its common shares.

Current wording

From 2013 through November 8, 2024, the Company has repurchased 150 million common shares for approximately $5.3 billion, representing approximately 77% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the repurchase program in 2013. On May 2, 2024 and November 8, 2024, the AGL Board of Directors (the Board) authorized the repurchase of an additional $300 million and $250 million, respectively, of the Company’s common shares. Under this and previous authorizations, as of November 8, 2024, the remaining amount the Company was authorized to purchase was approximately $385 million of its common shares. Shares may be repurchased from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. The timing, form and amount of the share repurchases under the program are at the discretion of management and will depend on a variety of factors, including funds available at the parent company, other potential uses for such funds, market conditions, the Company’s capital position, legal requirements and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the Board at any time and it does not have an expiration date. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 12, Shareholders’ Equity, for additional information about the Company’s repurchases of its common shares.

Previous wording

As of June 30, 2024, the estimated accretive effect of the cumulative repurchases of common shares since the beginning of 2013 was approximately: $51.21 per share in shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, $55.44 per share in adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and $93.47 per share in adjusted book value.

Current wording

As of September 30, 2024, the estimated accretive effect of the cumulative repurchases of common shares since the beginning of 2013 was approximately: $56.63 per share in shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, $58.75 per share in adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and $97.75 per share in adjusted book value.

Previous wording

In May 2024, the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) approved, and AGM implemented, the redemption of approximately $100 million of its shares of common stock from AGMH.

Current wording

In May 2024, the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) approved, and AGM implemented, the redemption of approximately $100 million of AGM’s shares of common stock from AGMH.

Previous wording

In connection with the merger of AGM into AG, the Maryland Insurance Administration (MIA) approved, and on August 5, 2024 AG implemented, the redemption of approximately $300 million of its shares of common stock from AGMH in exchange for cash of $172 million and the remainder in alternative investments.

Current wording

In connection with the merger of AGM into AG, the Maryland Insurance Administration (MIA) approved, and in third quarter 2024 AG implemented, the redemption of approximately $300 million of AG’s shares of common stock from AGMH in exchange for cash of $167 million and the remainder in alternative investments.

Previous wording

Net income attributable to AGL for second quarter 2024 was lower compared with the three-month period ended June 30, 2023 (second quarter 2023) primarily due to:

Current wording

Net income attributable to AGL for third quarter 2024 was higher compared with the three-month period ended September 30, 2023 (third quarter 2023) primarily due to:

Previous wording

•loss and LAE benefit in second quarter 2024 compared with loss and LAE in second quarter 2023, and

Current wording

•a benefit in net loss and LAE in third quarter 2024 of $51 million, compared with loss and LAE of $100 million in third quarter 2023, and

Previous wording

•foreign exchange gains on remeasurement in second quarter 2023, and

Current wording

•foreign exchange gains on remeasurement of $55 million in third quarter 2024, compared with foreign exchange losses of $39 million in third quarter 2023.

Previous wording

Net income attributable to AGL for six months 2024 was lower compared with the six-month period ended June 30, 2023 (six months 2023) primarily due to:

Current wording

Net income attributable to AGL for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2024 (nine months 2024) was lower compared with the nine-month period ended September 30, 2023 (nine months 2023) primarily due to:

Previous wording

•lower other income mainly due to the reversal of a previously recorded litigation accrual of $20 million in six months 2023.

Current wording

•lower other income mainly due to the reversal of a previously recorded litigation accrual of $20 million in nine months 2023.

Previous wording

•a benefit in loss and LAE in six months 2024 compared with a loss and LAE in six months 2023,

Current wording

•a benefit in net loss and LAE in nine months 2024 of $54 million, compared with loss and LAE of $159 in nine months 2023,

Previous wording

•higher net earned premiums in six months 2024 compared with six months 2023 primarily due to one large refunded transaction, and

Current wording

•higher net earned premiums in nine months 2024 compared with nine months 2023 primarily due to one large refunded transaction, and

Previous wording

Adjusted operating income in second quarter 2024 was $80 million compared with $36 million in second quarter 2023. The increase was primarily due to a benefit in loss expense in second quarter 2024 compared with loss expense in second quarter 2023 and employee compensation and operating expenses associated with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction in second quarter 2023, partially offset by lower fair value gains on Puerto Rico CVIs..

Current wording

Adjusted operating income in third quarter 2024 was $130 million compared with $206 million in third quarter 2023. The decrease was primarily due to the gain associated with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction in third quarter 2023, offset in part by a benefit in loss expense in third quarter 2024 compared with loss expense in third quarter 2023.

Previous wording

Adjusted operating income in six months 2024 was $193 million, compared with $104 million in six months 2023. The increase was primarily due to a benefit in loss expense in six months 2024, compared with a loss expense in six months 2023. employee compensation and operating expenses associated with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction in six months 2023, and higher net earned premiums from refundings in six months 2024, partially offset by the release of a litigation accrual in six months 2023.. See “— Results of Operations — Reconciliation to GAAP” for the reconciliation of net income (loss) attributable to AGL to adjusted operating income (loss).

Current wording

Adjusted operating income in nine months 2024 was $323 million, compared with $310 million in nine months 2023. The increase was primarily due to a benefit in loss expense in nine months 2024, compared with a loss expense in nine months 2023, offset in part by a gain from the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction in nine months 2023. See “— Results of Operations — Reconciliation to GAAP” for the reconciliation of net income (loss) attributable to AGL to adjusted operating income (loss).

Previous wording

Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL as of June 30, 2024 decreased compared with December 31, 2023, primarily due to share repurchases of $281 million and dividends of $36 million, offset in part by net income of $187 million. Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and adjusted book value also decreased primarily due to share repurchases and dividends, partially offset by operating income of $193 million and, in the case of adjusted book value, GWP of $193 million. See “— Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below for the reconciliation of shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL to adjusted operating shareholders' equity and adjusted book value.

Current wording

Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL as of September 30, 2024 increased compared with December 31, 2023, primarily due to net income of $358 million and other comprehensive income of $128 million, offset in part by share repurchases of $412 million and dividends of $52 million. Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and adjusted book value decreased primarily due to share repurchases and dividends, partially offset by operating income of $323 million and, in the case of adjusted book value, GWP of $254 million. See “— Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below for the reconciliation of shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL to adjusted operating shareholders' equity and adjusted book value.

Previous wording

By some key measures, consumer price inflation in the U.S. and the U.K. was higher in recent years than it has been in decades, and interest rates generally increased. Consumer price inflation in the U.K. can impact the Company directly by increasing exposure for certain index-linked U.K. debt with par that accretes with increasing inflation, and also increasing projected future installment premiums on the portion of such exposure that pays at least some of the premium on an installment basis over the term of the exposure. Consumer price inflation may also impact the Company indirectly to the extent it makes it more difficult for obligors to make their debt payments, and may be accompanied by higher interest rates.

Current wording

By some key measures, consumer price inflation in the U.S. and the U.K. was higher in recent years than it has been in decades, and interest rates generally increased. Consumer price inflation in the U.K. can impact the Company directly by increasing exposure for certain index-linked U.K. debt with par that accretes with increasing inflation, and also by increasing projected future installment premiums on the portion of such exposure that pays at least some of the premium on an installment basis over the term of the exposure. Consumer price inflation may also impact the Company indirectly to the extent it makes it more difficult for obligors to make their debt payments, and may be accompanied by higher interest rates.

Previous wording

Higher interest rates impact the Company in numerous other ways. For example, higher interest rates are often accompanied by wider credit spreads, which may make the Company’s credit enhancement products more attractive in the market and increase the level of premiums it can charge for that product. Despite the recent increases in interest rates since 2022, the pace of credit spread widening was more modest and market penetration of municipal bond insurance in the U.S. public finance market remained relatively flat compared to 2021 when interest rates were lower. Over time, higher interest rates also increase the amount the Company can earn on its largely fixed-maturity investment portfolio. However, higher interest rates may, in turn, reduce the fair value of its largely fixed-rate fixed-maturity investment portfolio, dampen municipal bond issuance and negatively impact the finances of some insured obligors.

Current wording

Higher interest rates impact the Company in numerous other ways. For example, higher interest rates are often accompanied by wider credit spreads, which may make the Company’s credit enhancement products more attractive in the market and increase the level of premiums it can charge for that product. Despite the increases in interest rates from 2022 to 2024, the pace of credit spread widening was more modest and market penetration of municipal bond insurance in the U.S. public finance market remained relatively flat compared with 2021 when interest rates were lower. Over time, higher interest rates also increase the amount the Company can earn on its largely fixed-maturity investment portfolio. However, higher interest rates may, in turn, reduce the fair value of the Company’s largely fixed-rate fixed-maturity investment portfolio, dampen municipal bond issuance, and negatively impact the finances of some insured obligors.

Previous wording

The Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have reviewed the Company’s insurance and investment portfolios, respectively, and have identified no material direct exposure to Ukraine or Russia. In fact, the Company’s direct insurance exposure to eastern Europe generally is limited to approximately $233 million in net par outstanding as of June 30, 2024, comprising $194 million net par exposure to the sovereign debt of Poland and $39 million net par exposure to a toll road in Hungary. The Company rates all such exposure investment grade.

Current wording

The Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have reviewed the Company’s insurance and investment portfolios, respectively, and have identified no material direct exposure to Ukraine or Russia. In fact, the Company’s direct insurance exposure to eastern Europe generally is limited to approximately $234 million in net par outstanding as of September 30, 2024, comprising $216 million net par exposure to the sovereign debt of Poland and $18 million net par exposure to a toll road in Hungary. The Company rates all such exposure investment grade.

Previous wording

In light of recent events in the Middle East, the Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have reviewed the Company’s insurance and investment portfolios, respectively, for exposures to the Middle East. After review, the Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have identified no material direct exposure to such area. The Company’s direct insurance exposure to the Middle East is generally limited to approximately $69 million in net par outstanding as of June 30, 2024, comprised of funded commitments to subscription finance facilities; however, such exposure may increase to a total of approximately $102 million to the extent all unfunded commitments under the facilities are ultimately funded. The Company rates all such insurance exposure investment grade.

Current wording

In light of recent events in the Middle East, the Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have reviewed the Company’s insurance and investment portfolios, respectively, for exposures to the Middle East. After review, the Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have identified no material direct exposure to such area. The Company’s direct insurance exposure to the Middle East is generally limited to approximately $68 million in net par outstanding as of September 30, 2024, comprised of funded commitments to subscription finance facilities; however, such exposure may increase to a total of approximately $105 million to the extent all unfunded commitments under the facilities are ultimately funded. The Company rates all such insurance exposure investment grade.
Rearranged previous paragraphs (5)

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

(xxiii) public health crises, including pandemics and endemics, and the governmental and private actions taken in response to such events; (xxiv) natural or man-made catastrophes; (xxv) the impact of climate change on Assured Guaranty’s business and regulatory actions taken related to such risk; (xxvi) other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC); (xxvii) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; and (xxviii) management’s response to these factors.

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

Company participates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation.

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

Company will also, where appropriate, pursue litigation to enforce its rights. For example, the Company initiated a number of legal actions to enforce its rights with respect to obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•lower fair value gains on credit derivatives,

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

These decreases were offset in part by: