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ASSURED GUARANTY LTD

For the period ended Jun 30, 2024. Filed Aug 8, 2024.

View on SEC.gov

About this filing

A company's report for each of its first three quarters. The financial statements are not audited. It shows how the business has moved since the last annual report, and what management says changed.

Jun 30, 2024 · Filed Aug 8, 2024

AGO$73.45+2.4%Stored close · as of Nov 6, 2026

What changed in Management’s Discussion and Analysis?

Read the current filing

The baseline is this issuer’s latest earlier reporting period of the same form that was filed before the current report. A previous 10-Q is a different quarter, not a year-over-year comparison. Amendments are excluded.

Compared 113 previous paragraphs and 106 current paragraphs.

55 unchanged; 29 reworded; 19 added; 6 removed; 23 previous and 3 current paragraphs rearranged.

Tables are not compared: 5 previous and 5 current tables excluded. Dates, whitespace, punctuation and numbering changes are ignored; changes to financial figures remain significant.

A changed paragraph is not evidence that risk increased or decreased. An unchanged paragraph does not establish that risk stayed the same.

Added paragraphs (19)

Current report

On August 1, 2024, AGM merged with and into AG, with AG as the surviving company. Upon the merger all liabilities of AGM, including insurance policies issued or assumed by AGM, became obligations of AG. The Company believes that the combination of AG and AGM will simplify Assured Guaranty’s organizational and capital structure and grow its business. The combined company, as compared with either AG or AGM before the merger, has a larger, more highly diversified insured portfolio, a larger investment portfolio and a larger capital base, creating a more efficient capital structure and greater claims-paying resources.

Current report

In addition, the combined company, as compared with either AG or AGM before the merger, has larger regulatory single risk limits. Such limits are applicable to each financial guaranty insurer for obligations issued by a single entity and backed by a single revenue source. Since the combined company has greater policyholder’s surplus and contingency reserves, as compared to standalone AG or AGM before the merger, the dollar amounts for its single risk limits on obligations issued by a single entity and backed by a single revenue source are also greater.

Current report

Prior to the merger, AG had been directly owned by AGUS. As a result of the merger, effective as of August 1, 2024, AG is directly owned by AGMH, a subsidiary of AGUS.

Current report

In May 2024, the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) approved, and AGM implemented, the redemption of approximately $100 million of its shares of common stock from AGMH.

Current report

In connection with the merger of AGM into AG, the Maryland Insurance Administration (MIA) approved, and on August 5, 2024 AG implemented, the redemption of approximately $300 million of its shares of common stock from AGMH in exchange for cash of $172 million and the remainder in alternative investments.

Current report

Second Quarter 2024 Compared with Second Quarter 2023

Current report

•lower fair value gains on credit derivatives,

Current report

•foreign exchange gains on remeasurement in second quarter 2023, and

Current report

These decreases were offset in part by:

Current report

•loss and LAE benefit in second quarter 2024 compared with loss and LAE in second quarter 2023, and

Current report

•employee compensation and operating expenses associated with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction of $24 million in second quarter 2023.

Current report

Six Months 2024 Compared with Six Months 2023

Current report

Net income attributable to AGL for six months 2024 was lower compared with the six-month period ended June 30, 2023 (six months 2023) primarily due to:

Current report

•lower fair value gains on credit derivatives,

Current report

•lower fair value gains on CIVs, and

Current report

These decreases were offset in part by:

Current report

•a benefit in loss and LAE in six months 2024 compared with a loss and LAE in six months 2023,

Current report

•employee compensation and operating expenses associated with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction of $31 million in six months 2023.

Current report

Adjusted operating income in second quarter 2024 was $80 million compared with $36 million in second quarter 2023. The increase was primarily due to a benefit in loss expense in second quarter 2024 compared with loss expense in second quarter 2023 and employee compensation and operating expenses associated with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction in second quarter 2023, partially offset by lower fair value gains on Puerto Rico CVIs..
Removed paragraphs (6)

Previous report

•global terrorism risk with threats increasing from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine/Russia, and the polarized political environment of the 2024 U.S. presidential election;

Previous report

•loss of key personnel;

Previous report

•natural or man-made catastrophes;

Previous report

•management’s response to these factors.

Previous report

First Quarter 2024 Compared with First Quarter 2023

Previous report

These increases were offset in part by:
Reworded paragraphs (29)

Previous wording

•significant changes in inflation, interest rates, the world’s credit markets or segments thereof, credit spreads, foreign exchange rates or general economic conditions, including the possibility of a recession or stagflation;

Current wording

(i) significant changes in inflation, interest rates, the world’s credit markets or segments thereof, credit spreads, foreign exchange rates or general economic conditions, including the possibility of a recession or stagflation; (ii) geopolitical risk, terrorism and political violence risk, including those arising out of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and intentional or accidental escalation between The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia, conflict in the Middle East and confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program, the polarized political environment of the 2024 United States (U.S.) presidential election and U.S. – China strategic competition; (iii) cybersecurity risk and the impacts of artificial intelligence, machine learning and other technological advances, including potentially increasing the risks of malicious cyber attacks, dissemination of misinformation, and disruption of markets; (iv) the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown, payment defaults on the debt of the U.S. government or instruments issued, insured or guaranteed by related institutions, agencies or instrumentalities, and downgrades to their credit ratings; (v) developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, including stresses in the financial condition of banking institutions in the U.S. and the possibility that increasing participation of unregulated financial institutions in these markets results in losses or lower valuations of assets, reduced liquidity and credit and/or contraction of these markets, that adversely affect repayment rates of insured obligors, Assured Guaranty’s insurance loss or recovery experience, or investments of Assured Guaranty; (vi) reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty’s insurance; (vii) the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or liquidity claims on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures; (viii) insured losses, including losses with respect to related legal proceedings, in excess of those expected by Assured Guaranty or the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates for insurance exposures, including as a result of the final resolution of Assured Guaranty’s Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) exposure or the amounts recovered on securities received in connection with the resolution of Puerto Rico exposures already resolved; (ix) the impact of Assured Guaranty satisfying its obligations under insurance policies with respect to legacy insured Puerto Rico bonds; (x) increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry, nonpayment insurance and other forms of capital saving or risk syndication available to banks and insurers; (xi) the possibility that investments made by Assured Guaranty for i…

Excerpt shortened here; the source contains the full paragraph.

Previous wording

•public health crises, including pandemics and endemics, and the governmental and private actions taken in response to such events;

Current wording

(xxiii) public health crises, including pandemics and endemics, and the governmental and private actions taken in response to such events; (xxiv) natural or man-made catastrophes; (xxv) the impact of climate change on Assured Guaranty’s business and regulatory actions taken related to such risk; (xxvi) other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC); (xxvii) other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; and (xxviii) management’s response to these factors.

Previous wording

For these statements, the Company claims the protection of the safe harbor for forward looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (Securities Act), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Exchange Act).

Current wording

For these statements, the Company claims the protection of the safe harbor for forward looking statements contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Exchange Act).

Previous wording

In the Insurance segment, the Company provides credit protection products to the U.S. and non-U.S. public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets. Until July 1, 2023, the Company served as investment advisor to collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and opportunity funds, through Assured Investment Management LLC (AssuredIM LLC) and its investment management affiliates (together with AssuredIM LLC, AssuredIM). Beginning July 1, 2023, the Company participates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation.

Current wording

In the Insurance segment, the Company provides credit protection products to the U.S. and non-U.S. public finance (including infrastructure) and structured finance markets. Until July 1, 2023, the Company served as investment advisor to collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) and opportunity funds, through Assured Investment Management LLC (AssuredIM LLC) and its investment management affiliates (together with AssuredIM LLC, AssuredIM). Beginning July 1, 2023, the

Previous wording

The Corporate division consists primarily of interest expense on the debt of Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) and Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH) (the U.S. Holding Companies), as well as other operating expenses attributed to holding company activities, including administrative services performed by certain subsidiaries for the holding companies. Other activities include the effect of consolidating FG VIEs and CIVs (FG VIE and CIV consolidation). See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 2, Segment Information.

Current wording

The Corporate division primarily consists of: (i) interest expense and any losses on the extinguishment of the debt of Assured Guaranty US Holdings Inc. (AGUS) and Assured Guaranty Municipal Holdings Inc. (AGMH) (the U.S. Holding Companies); and (ii) other corporate operating expenses of AGL and the U.S. Holding Companies. The Other category in the segment tables below primarily includes the effect of consolidating FG VIEs and CIVs (FG VIE and CIV consolidation), intersegment eliminations and, prior to July 1, 2023, the reclassification of reimbursable fund expenses. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 2, Segment Information.

Previous wording

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.6% in the three-month period ended March 31, 2024 (first quarter 2024), compared to an increase of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the first quarter 2024 advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. At the end of March 2024, the U.S. unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, stood at 3.8%, near where it started the year at 3.7%. The Company believes a more robust economy makes it less likely that obligors whose obligations it guarantees will default.

Current wording

Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the three-month period ended June 30, 2024 (second quarter 2024), compared to an increase of 1.4% in the three-month period ended March 31, 2024 (first quarter 2024), according to the second quarter 2024 advance estimate news release issued by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. At the end of June 2024, the U.S. unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, stood at 4.1%, higher than where it stood at the end of first quarter 2024 at 3.8%. The Company believes a more robust economy makes it less likely that obligors whose obligations it guarantees will default.

Previous wording

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the inflation rate in the U.S. before seasonal adjustment for the 12-month period ending March 2024, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, was 3.5%, as compared to 3.4% for the 12-month period ending December 2023. According to the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs was 3.8% for the 12 months to March 2024, down from 4.2% for the 12 months ended December 2023. Consumer price inflation in the U.K. increases reported net par outstanding for certain U.K exposures with approximately $22.7 billion of net par outstanding as of March 31, 2024, and also increases projected future installment premiums on the portion of such exposure that pays at least a portion of the premium on an installment basis over the term of the exposure.

Current wording

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the inflation rate in the U.S. before seasonal adjustment for the 12-month period ending June 2024, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, was 3.0%, as compared to 3.5% for the 12-month period ending March 2024. According to the United Kingdom’s (U.K.) Office for National Statistics, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs rose 2.8% for the 12 months through June 2024, down from 3.8% for the 12 months ended March 2024. Consumer price inflation in the U.K. increases reported net par outstanding for certain U.K. exposures with approximately $22.7 billion of net par outstanding as of June 30, 2024, and also increases projected future installment premiums on the portion of such exposure that pays at least a portion of the premium on an installment basis over the term of the exposure.

Previous wording

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acknowledging the need to combat inflation, in March 2022 the FOMC began again raising the target range for the federal funds rate and stated that it would reduce its holdings of treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. From March 2022 through July 2023, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate from a range of 0% to 0.25% where it started 2022 to a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC has repeatedly declared that it seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time, the FOMC indicated that it will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. Since its July 2023 meeting, the FOMC has maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%, including through its most recent meeting held April 30-May 1, 2024, stating that it would continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.

Current wording

With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) acknowledging the need to combat inflation, in March 2022 the FOMC began again raising the target range for the federal funds rate and stated that it would reduce its holdings of treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. From March 2022 through July 2023, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate from a range of 0% to 0.25% where it started 2022 to a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%. Since its July 2023 meeting, the FOMC has maintained the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50%, including through its most recent meeting held July 30-31, 2024, stating that it would continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. The FOMC has repeatedly declared that it seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the FOMC has indicated it will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks, and that it does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%. These assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Previous wording

The 30-year AAA Municipal Market Data (MMD) rate is a measure of interest rates in the Company’s largest financial guaranty insurance market, U.S. public finance. The MMD rate averaged 3.57% for the quarter ended March 2024, lower than the 4.06% average for the quarter ended December 2023, but higher than the 3.37% average for the quarter ended March 2023. Meanwhile, the difference, or credit spread, between the 30-year BBB-rated general obligation relative to the 30-year AAA MMD averaged 92 basis points (bps) in the quarter ended March 2024, which is narrower than the 100 bps average for the quarter ended December 2023, and narrower than the 101 bps average for the quarter ended March 2023. The Company believes that, over time, wider spreads could permit it to increase its premium rates on new business, and higher interest rates may also increase the amount the Company can earn on its largely fixed-maturity securities.

Current wording

The 30-year AAA Municipal Market Data (MMD) rate is a measure of interest rates in the Company’s largest financial guaranty insurance market, U.S. public finance. The MMD rate averaged 3.82% for the quarter ended June 2024, higher than the 3.57% average for the quarter ended March 2024, and higher than the 3.41% average for the quarter ended June 2023. Meanwhile, the difference, or credit spread, between the 30-year BBB-rated general obligation relative to the 30-year AAA MMD averaged 90 basis points (bps) in the quarter ended June 2024, which is slightly narrower than the 92 bps average for the quarter ended March 2024, and narrower than the 101 bps average for the quarter ended June 2023. The Company believes that, wider spreads could permit it to increase its premium rates on new business, and higher interest rates may also increase the amount the Company can earn on its largely fixed-maturity securities.

Previous wording

Additionally, the Company believes that higher interest rates are discouraging some homeowners from moving as many are locked into lower mortgage interest rates at the homes in which they reside, which, in turn, is restricting housing inventory and leading to an increase in home prices as demand outpaces supply. The increase in housing prices may benefit distressed residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) the Company insures. The National Association of Realtors reported that year-over-year existing-home sales declined 3.7% from March 2023 to March 2024, while the median existing-home sales price increased 4.8% from March 2023 ($375,300) to March 2024 ($393,500).

Current wording

Additionally, the Company believes that higher interest rates are discouraging some homeowners from moving as many are locked into lower mortgage interest rates at the homes in which they reside, which, in turn, is restricting housing inventory and leading to an increase in home prices as demand outpaces supply. The increase in housing prices may benefit distressed residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) the Company insures. The National Association of Realtors reported that year-over-year existing-home sales decreased 5.4% from June 2023 to June 2024, while the median existing-home sales price increased 4.1% from June 2023 ($410,100) to June 2024 ($426,900).

Previous wording

The Company seeks to grow the insurance business through new business production, acquisitions of legacy financial guarantors or reinsurance of their insured portfolios, and to continue to mitigate losses in its current insured portfolio.

Current wording

The Company seeks to grow the insurance business through new business production, acquisitions of legacy financial guarantors or reinsurance or novation of their insured portfolios, and to continue to mitigate losses in its current insured portfolio.

Previous wording

The Company expects its relationship with Sound Point to also enhance its alternative investment opportunities. Upon closing of the Sound Point Transaction and the AHP Transaction in July, the Company has increased the aggregate amount it has agreed to invest in alternative investments to $1.5 billion, including $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments, subject to regulatory approval. Of the $1.5 billion, the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries through their jointly owned investment subsidiary, AG Asset Strategies LLC (AGAS), are authorized to invest up to $750 million plus previously distributed gains of $162 million for a total of $912 million as of March 31, 2024. As of March 31, 2024, AGAS commitments to funds managed by Sound Point and AHP (Sound Point and AHP funds) were $772 million.

Current wording

Merger of the U.S. Insurance Subsidiaries

Previous wording

In the public finance area, the Company believes its experience and the resources it is prepared to deploy, as well as its ability to provide bond insurance or other contributions as part of a solution, result in more favorable outcomes in distressed public finance situations than would be the case without its participation. This has been illustrated by the Company’s role in negotiating various agreements in connection with the restructuring of obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations, as well as Detroit, Michigan and Stockton, California. The Company will also, where appropriate, pursue litigation to enforce its rights. For example, the Company initiated a number of legal actions to enforce its rights with respect to obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.

Current wording

In the public finance area, the Company believes its experience and the resources it is prepared to deploy, as well as its ability to provide bond insurance or other contributions as part of a solution, result in more favorable outcomes in distressed public finance situations than would be the case without its participation. This has been illustrated by the Company’s role in negotiating various agreements in connection with the restructuring of obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations, as well as Detroit, Michigan and Stockton, California. The

Previous wording

In 2022, as a result of the resolution of the Company’s exposure to insured Puerto Rico credits experiencing payment default other than Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) (2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions), the Company received cash, new general obligation bonds (New GO Bonds), new bonds backed by toll revenues (Toll Bonds, and together with New GO Bonds, New Recovery Bonds) and contingent value instruments (CVIs). The CVIs are intended to provide creditors with additional recoveries tied to the outperformance of the Puerto Rico 5.5% Sales and Use Tax receipts against May 2020 certified fiscal plan projections, subject to annual and lifetime caps. The Company may sell in the future any CVIs it continues to hold. The Company continues to work to resolve its remaining unresolved defaulted Puerto Rico exposure, PREPA. For more information about developments in Puerto Rico and related recovery litigation being pursued by the Company, see Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, and the Insured Portfolio section below.

Current wording

In 2022, as a result of the resolution of the Company’s exposure to insured Puerto Rico credits experiencing payment default other than PREPA (2022 Puerto Rico Resolutions), the Company received cash, new general obligation bonds (New GO Bonds), new bonds backed by toll revenues (Toll Bonds, and together with New GO Bonds, New Recovery Bonds) and contingent value instruments (CVIs). The CVIs are intended to provide creditors with additional recoveries tied to the outperformance of the Puerto Rico 5.5% Sales and Use Tax receipts against May 2020 certified fiscal plan projections, subject to annual and lifetime caps. The Company may sell in the future any CVIs it continues to hold. The Company continues to work to resolve its remaining unresolved defaulted Puerto Rico exposure, PREPA. For more information about developments in Puerto Rico and related recovery litigation being pursued by the Company, see Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 3, Outstanding Exposure, and the “—Insured Portfolio” section below.

Previous wording

The Company may also purchase attractively priced obligations, including below-investment-grade (BIG) obligations, that it has insured and for which it had expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (Loss Mitigation Securities). The fair value of Loss Mitigation Securities as of March 31, 2024 (excluding the value of the Company’s insurance) was $464 million.

Current wording

The Company may also purchase attractively priced obligations, including below-investment-grade (BIG) obligations, that it has insured and for which it had expected losses to be paid, in order to mitigate the economic effect of insured losses (Loss Mitigation Securities). The fair value of Loss Mitigation Securities as of June 30, 2024 (excluding the value of the Company’s insurance) was $465 million.

Previous wording

Until July 1, 2023, the Company pursued its asset management strategy through AssuredIM. With the consummation of the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction, effective as of July 1, 2023, the Company participates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point, and no longer directly manages investments for third parties. The Company’s ownership interest in Sound Point furthers its strategy of participating in a fee-based earnings stream independent of the risk-based premiums generated by its financial guaranty business. The Sound Point business was strengthened by the addition of AssuredIM’s assets under management (AUM) (excluding AUM relating to AHP). See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation, for a description of the Sound Point Transaction.

Current wording

Until July 1, 2023, the Company pursued its asset management strategy through AssuredIM. Upon the closing of the transaction with Sound Point (Sound Point Transaction) and the transaction with AHP (AHP Transaction), effective as of July 1, 2023, the Company participates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point, and no longer directly manages investments for third parties. The Company’s ownership interest in Sound Point furthers its strategy of participating in a fee-based earnings stream independent of the risk-based premiums generated by its financial guaranty business. The Sound Point business was strengthened by the addition of AssuredIM’s assets under management (AUM) (excluding AUM relating to AHP). See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation, for a description of the Sound Point Transaction and the AHP Transaction.

Previous wording

From 2013 through May 7, 2024, the Company has repurchased 146 million common shares for approximately $5.1 billion, representing approximately 75% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the repurchase program in 2013. On May 2, 2024, the AGL Board of Directors (the Board) authorized the repurchase of an additional $300 million of the Company’s common shares. Under this and previous authorizations, as of May 7, 2024, the Company was authorized to purchase $414 million of its common shares. Shares may be repurchased from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. The timing, form and amount of the share repurchases under the program are at the discretion of management and will depend on a variety of factors, including funds available at the parent company, other potential uses for such funds, market conditions, the Company’s capital position, legal requirements and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the Board at any time and it does not have an expiration date. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 12, Shareholders’ Equity, for additional information about the Company’s repurchases of its common shares.

Current wording

From 2013 through August 6, 2024, the Company has repurchased 148 million common shares for approximately $5.2 billion, representing approximately 76% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the repurchase program in 2013. On May 2, 2024, the AGL Board of Directors (the Board) authorized the repurchase of an additional $300 million of the Company’s common shares. Under this and previous authorizations, as of August 6, 2024, the Company was authorized to purchase $275 million of its common shares. Shares may be repurchased from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions. The timing, form and amount of the share repurchases under the program are at the discretion of management and will depend on a variety of factors, including funds available at the parent company, other potential uses for such funds, market conditions, the Company’s capital position, legal requirements and other factors. The repurchase program may be modified, extended or terminated by the Board at any time and it does not have an expiration date. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 12, Shareholders’ Equity, for additional information about the Company’s repurchases of its common shares.

Previous wording

As of March 31, 2024, the estimated accretive effect of the cumulative repurchases of common shares since the beginning of 2013 was approximately: $49.49 per share in shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, $53.50 per share in adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and $89.47 per share in adjusted book value.

Current wording

As of June 30, 2024, the estimated accretive effect of the cumulative repurchases of common shares since the beginning of 2013 was approximately: $51.21 per share in shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL, $55.44 per share in adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and $93.47 per share in adjusted book value.

Previous wording

Net income attributable to AGL for first quarter 2024 was higher compared with the three-month period ended March 31, 2023 (first quarter 2023) primarily due to:

Current wording

Net income attributable to AGL for second quarter 2024 was lower compared with the three-month period ended June 30, 2023 (second quarter 2023) primarily due to:

Previous wording

•fair value gains on trading securities in first quarter 2024 compared with losses in first quarter 2023.

Current wording

•lower fair value gains on trading securities in second quarter 2024.

Previous wording

•foreign exchange losses on remeasurement in first quarter 2024, compared with gains in first quarter 2023, and

Current wording

•foreign exchange losses on remeasurement in six months 2024, compared with gains in six months 2023,

Previous wording

•lower other income due to the reversal of a previously recorded litigation accrual of $20 million in first quarter 2023.

Current wording

•lower other income mainly due to the reversal of a previously recorded litigation accrual of $20 million in six months 2023.

Previous wording

•higher net earned premiums in first quarter 2024 compared with first quarter 2023 primarily due to one large refunded transaction, and

Current wording

•higher net earned premiums in six months 2024 compared with six months 2023 primarily due to one large refunded transaction, and

Previous wording

The Company’s effective tax rate reflects the proportion of income recognized by each of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, with U.S. subsidiaries generally taxed at the U.S. marginal corporate income tax rate of 21%, U.K. subsidiaries taxed at the U.K. marginal corporate tax rate of 19% prior to March 31, 2023 and 25% after April 1 2023, the French subsidiary taxed at the French marginal corporate tax rate of 25%, and Bermuda subsidiaries taxed at the Bermuda marginal corporate tax rate of 0%, unless subject to U.S. tax by election or as a U.S. controlled foreign corporation. Effective January 1, 2024, the U.K. adopted a global minimum tax rate of 15% under the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Pillar Two rules. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 10, Income Taxes.

Current wording

The Company’s effective tax rate reflects the proportion of income recognized by each of the Company’s operating subsidiaries, with U.S. subsidiaries generally taxed at the U.S. marginal corporate income tax rate of 21%, U.K. subsidiaries taxed at the U.K. marginal corporate tax rate of 19% prior to March 31, 2023 and 25% after April 1, 2023, the French subsidiary taxed at the French marginal corporate tax rate of 25%, and Assured Guaranty Re Ltd. (AG Re) and Cedar Personnel Ltd. taxed at the Bermuda marginal corporate tax rate of 0%. Effective January 1, 2024, the U.K. adopted a global minimum tax rate of 15% under the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development’s Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Pillar Two rules. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 10, Income Taxes.

Previous wording

Adjusted operating income in first quarter 2024 was $113 million, compared with $68 million in first quarter 2023. The increase was primarily due to higher premiums earned from accelerations due to a large refunded transaction in first quarter 2024, and fair value gains on Puerto Rico CVIs classified as trading securities, offset in part by lower other income in first quarter 2024, compared with first quarter 2023, which included the reversal of a previously recorded litigation accrual. See “— Results of Operations — Reconciliation to GAAP” for the reconciliation of net income (loss) attributable to AGL to adjusted operating income (loss).

Current wording

Adjusted operating income in six months 2024 was $193 million, compared with $104 million in six months 2023. The increase was primarily due to a benefit in loss expense in six months 2024, compared with a loss expense in six months 2023. employee compensation and operating expenses associated with the Sound Point Transaction and AHP Transaction in six months 2023, and higher net earned premiums from refundings in six months 2024, partially offset by the release of a litigation accrual in six months 2023.. See “— Results of Operations — Reconciliation to GAAP” for the reconciliation of net income (loss) attributable to AGL to adjusted operating income (loss).

Previous wording

Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL as of March 31, 2024 decreased compared with December 31, 2023, due to share repurchases, unrealized losses on investments and dividends, offset in part by net income. Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and adjusted book value also decreased primarily due to share repurchases of $129 million and dividends, partially offset by operating income of $113 million and in the case of adjusted book value, GWP of $61 million. See “— Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below for the reconciliation of shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL to adjusted operating shareholders' equity and adjusted book value.

Current wording

Shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL as of June 30, 2024 decreased compared with December 31, 2023, primarily due to share repurchases of $281 million and dividends of $36 million, offset in part by net income of $187 million. Adjusted operating shareholders’ equity and adjusted book value also decreased primarily due to share repurchases and dividends, partially offset by operating income of $193 million and, in the case of adjusted book value, GWP of $193 million. See “— Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below for the reconciliation of shareholders’ equity attributable to AGL to adjusted operating shareholders' equity and adjusted book value.

Previous wording

By some key measures, consumer price inflation in the U.S. and the U.K. was higher in recent years than it has been in decades, and interest rates generally increased. Consumer price inflation in the U.K. impacts the Company directly by increasing exposure for certain index-linked U.K. debt with par that accretes with increasing inflation, and also increasing projected future installment premiums on the portion of such exposure that pays at least some of the premium on an installment basis over the term of the exposure. Consumer price inflation may also impact the Company indirectly to the extent it makes it more difficult for obligors to make their debt payments, and may be accompanied by higher interest rates.

Current wording

By some key measures, consumer price inflation in the U.S. and the U.K. was higher in recent years than it has been in decades, and interest rates generally increased. Consumer price inflation in the U.K. can impact the Company directly by increasing exposure for certain index-linked U.K. debt with par that accretes with increasing inflation, and also increasing projected future installment premiums on the portion of such exposure that pays at least some of the premium on an installment basis over the term of the exposure. Consumer price inflation may also impact the Company indirectly to the extent it makes it more difficult for obligors to make their debt payments, and may be accompanied by higher interest rates.

Previous wording

The Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have reviewed the Company’s insurance and investment portfolios, respectively, and have identified no material direct exposure to Ukraine or Russia. In fact, the Company’s direct insurance exposure to eastern Europe generally is limited to approximately $245 million in net par outstanding as of March 31, 2024, comprising $205 million net par exposure to the sovereign debt of Poland and $40 million net par exposure to a toll road in Hungary. The Company rates all such exposure investment grade.

Current wording

The Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have reviewed the Company’s insurance and investment portfolios, respectively, and have identified no material direct exposure to Ukraine or Russia. In fact, the Company’s direct insurance exposure to eastern Europe generally is limited to approximately $233 million in net par outstanding as of June 30, 2024, comprising $194 million net par exposure to the sovereign debt of Poland and $39 million net par exposure to a toll road in Hungary. The Company rates all such exposure investment grade.

Previous wording

In light of recent events in the Middle East, the Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have reviewed the Company’s insurance and investment portfolios, respectively, for exposures to the Middle East. After review, the Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have identified no material direct exposure to such area. The Company’s direct insurance exposure to the Middle East is generally limited to approximately $58 million in net par outstanding as of March 31, 2024, comprised of funded commitments to subscription finance facilities; however, such exposure may increase to a total of approximately $93 million to the extent all unfunded commitments under the facilities are ultimately funded. The Company rates all such insurance exposure investment grade.

Current wording

In light of recent events in the Middle East, the Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have reviewed the Company’s insurance and investment portfolios, respectively, for exposures to the Middle East. After review, the Company’s surveillance and treasury functions have identified no material direct exposure to such area. The Company’s direct insurance exposure to the Middle East is generally limited to approximately $69 million in net par outstanding as of June 30, 2024, comprised of funded commitments to subscription finance facilities; however, such exposure may increase to a total of approximately $102 million to the extent all unfunded commitments under the facilities are ultimately funded. The Company rates all such insurance exposure investment grade.
Rearranged current paragraphs (3)

Current report — wording carried from elsewhere

Company participates in the asset management business through its ownership interest in Sound Point. See Item 1, Financial Statements, Note 1, Business and Basis of Presentation.

Current report — wording carried from elsewhere

Company will also, where appropriate, pursue litigation to enforce its rights. For example, the Company initiated a number of legal actions to enforce its rights with respect to obligations of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and various obligations of its related authorities and public corporations.

Current report — wording carried from elsewhere

The Company expects its relationship with Sound Point to also enhance its alternative investment opportunities. The Company has agreed to invest an aggregate amount of $1.5 billion in alternative investments, including $1 billion in Sound Point managed investments.
Rearranged previous paragraphs (23)

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•geopolitical risk, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and risk of intentional or accidental escalation between The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia, conflict in the Middle East, confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program, United States (U.S.) – China strategic competition and pursuit of technological independence;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the impacts of artificial intelligence, machine learning and other technological advances, including potentially increasing the risks of malicious cyber attacks, dissemination of misinformation, and disruption of markets;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown, payment defaults on the debt of the U.S. government or instruments issued, insured or guaranteed by related institutions, agencies or instrumentalities, and downgrades to their credit ratings;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•developments in the world’s financial and capital markets, including stresses in the financial condition of banking institutions in the U.S. and the possibility that increasing participation of unregulated financial institutions in these markets results in losses or lower valuations of assets, reduced liquidity and credit and/or contraction of these markets, that adversely affect repayment rates of insured obligors, Assured Guaranty’s insurance loss or recovery experience, or investments of Assured Guaranty;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•reduction in the amount of available insurance opportunities and/or in the demand for Assured Guaranty’s insurance;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the possibility that budget or pension shortfalls or other factors will result in credit losses or liquidity claims on obligations of state, territorial and local governments and their related authorities and public corporations that Assured Guaranty insures or reinsures;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•insured losses, including losses with respect to related legal proceedings, in excess of those expected by Assured Guaranty or the failure of Assured Guaranty to realize loss recoveries that are assumed in its expected loss estimates for insurance exposures, including as a result of the final resolution of Assured Guaranty’s Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority exposure or the amounts recovered on securities received in connection with the resolution of Puerto Rico exposures already resolved;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the impact of Assured Guaranty satisfying its obligations under insurance policies with respect to legacy insured Puerto Rico bonds;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•increased competition, including from new entrants into the financial guaranty industry, nonpayment insurance and other forms of capital saving or risk syndication available to banks and insurers;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the possibility that investments made by Assured Guaranty for its investment portfolio, including alternative investments, do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to reduced liquidity at a time it requires liquidity, or to other negative or unanticipated consequences;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the impacts of Assured Guaranty’s transactions with Sound Point Capital Management, LP (Sound Point, LP) and certain of its investment management affiliates (together with Sound Point, LP, Sound Point) and/or Assured Healthcare Partners LLC (AHP) on Assured Guaranty and its relationships with its shareholders, regulators, rating agencies, employees and the obligors it insures and on the asset management business contributed to Sound Point, LP and on the business of AHP and their relationships with their respective clients and employees;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the possibility that strategic transactions made by Assured Guaranty, including the consummation of the transactions with Sound Point and/or AHP, do not result in the benefits anticipated or subject Assured Guaranty to negative consequences;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the inability to control the business, management or policies of entities in which Assured Guaranty holds a minority interest;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the impact of market volatility on the fair value of Assured Guaranty’s assets and liabilities subject to mark-to-market, including certain of its investments, contracts accounted for as derivatives, its committed capital securities, its consolidated investment vehicles and certain consolidated variable interest entities (VIEs);

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•rating agency action, including a ratings downgrade, a change in outlook, the placement of ratings on watch for downgrade, or a change in rating criteria, at any time, of AGL or any of its insurance subsidiaries, and/or of any securities AGL or any of its subsidiaries have issued, and/or of transactions that AGL’s insurance subsidiaries have insured;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the inability of Assured Guaranty to access external sources of capital on acceptable terms;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•changes in applicable accounting policies or practices;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•changes in applicable laws or regulations, including insurance, bankruptcy and tax laws, or other governmental actions;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•difficulties with the execution of Assured Guaranty’s business strategy;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the effects of mergers, acquisitions and divestitures;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•the impact of climate change on Assured Guaranty’s business and regulatory actions taken related to such risk;

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•other risk factors identified in AGL’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC);

Previous report — wording carried elsewhere

•other risks and uncertainties that have not been identified at this time; and