FIRST NORTHERN COMMUNITY BANCORP

Current report

RISK FACTORS

Current report

We are subject to various risks and uncertainties, which could materially affect our business, results of operations, financial condition, future results, and the trading price of our common stock. You should read carefully the following information together with the information appearing in Part I, Item 1A, “Risk Factors” in our 2024 Form 10-K. The following information supplements and, to the extent inconsistent, supersedes some of the information appearing in the “Risk Factors” section of our 2024 Form 10‑K. These risk factors, as well as our condensed consolidated financial statements and notes thereto and the other information appearing in this Report, should be reviewed carefully for important information regarding risks that affect us.

Current report

Changes in U.S. and Foreign Government Policies, Including the Imposition of or Further Increases in Tariffs and Changes to Existing Trade Agreements, Could Have a Material Adverse Effect on the Bank’s Customers, Which, in Turn, Could Adversely Affect Our Business, Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Current report

In February 2025, the new Trump Administration announced that it would be imposing increases in tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. from Canada, Mexico, and China, and, in April 2025, the Administration announced the imposition of increased tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. from other countries. As a consequence, other countries, in retaliation to the U.S.’s tariff measures, announced the imposition of increased levels of tariffs on goods exported to such countries by companies in the U.S. The Administration subsequently announced a delay of 90 days in the implementation of those increased tariffs for most other countries, leaving in place, however, a 10% baseline tariff that went into effect on April 5 and that applies to nearly all imports from all countries. These tariffs could be of particular concern to U.S. companies operating in the agricultural sector who export agricultural goods to other countries. The Company’s customers include a number of agricultural businesses, which could be negatively affected.

Current report

As a result of these changes to U.S. and foreign government trade policies, there may be changes to existing trade agreements, greater restrictions on free trade generally, the imposition of or significant further increases in tariffs on goods imported into the U.S., and adverse responses by foreign governments to U.S. trade policies, among other possible changes. While the Administration has announced a delay in the implementation of those increased tariffs for most countries, the 10% baseline tariff that applies to nearly all

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imports from all countries remains in effect, and it remains unclear what the Administration or foreign governments will or will not do with respect to tariffs or trade agreements and policies. The extent and duration of any tariffs, and the resulting impact on economic conditions generally and on our customers’ businesses in particular are uncertain and depend on various factors, such as negotiations between the U.S. and other countries, the responses of such countries, and exemptions or exclusions that may be granted. A significant trade disruption or the establishment or further increase of any tariffs, trade protection measures or restrictions could result in lost sales, adversely impacting our banking customers and their businesses, including our agricultural business customers. In addition, international trade disputes, including those related to tariffs, could result in inflationary pressures and/or adversely impact global supply chains, which could increase the costs of doing business for our banking customers. Changes in U.S. social, political, regulatory and economic conditions or in laws and policies governing foreign trade, manufacturing, development and investment in the countries where our banking customers currently sell products, including agricultural products, and any resulting negative sentiments towards the U.S. and U.S. businesses as a result of such changes, could also have a material adverse effect on our banking customers’ business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. If these events negatively affect our banking clients, or general economic conditions nationally, in California, or in our local markets, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected.

Current report

Negative Developments in the Banking Industry, and any Legislative and/or Bank Regulatory Actions that may Result, Could Adversely Affect our Business Operations, Results of Operations and Financial Condition.

Current report

The high-profile bank failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in 2023, and related negative media attention, generated significant market trading volatility among publicly-traded bank holding companies and, in particular, regional and community banks, such as the Company. These developments negatively impacted customer confidence in the safety and soundness of regional and community banks. Defaults by, or even rumors or questions about, one or more financial institutions or the financial services industry generally, may lead to market-wide liquidity problems and losses of client, creditor and counterparty confidence and could lead to losses or defaults by us or by other financial institutions.

Current report

While we currently do not anticipate liquidity constraints of the kind that caused these other financial services institutions to fail or require external support, constraints on our liquidity could occur as a result of customers choosing to maintain their deposits with larger financial institutions or to invest in higher yielding short-term fixed income securities, which could materially adversely impact our liquidity, cost of funding, loan funding capacity, net interest margin, capital and results of operations. If we were required to sell a portion of our securities portfolio to address liquidity needs, we may incur losses, including as a result of the negative impact of rising interest rates on the value of our securities portfolio, which could negatively affect our earnings and our capital. While the Company has taken actions which aim to maintain adequate and diversified sources of funding and management believes that its liquidity measures are reasonable in light of the nature of the Bank’s customer base, there can be no assurance that such actions will be sufficient in the event of a sudden liquidity crisis.

Current report

These bank failures may also result in potentially adverse changes to laws or regulations governing banks and bank holding companies, enhanced regulatory supervision and examination policies and priorities, and/or the imposition of restrictions through regulatory supervisory or enforcement activities, including higher capital requirements and/or an increase in the Bank’s deposit insurance assessments. The FDIC has proposed that Congress consider various changes in the FDIC insurance program, including possible increases in the deposit insurance limit for certain types of accounts, such as business payment accounts. Although these legislative and regulatory actions cannot be predicted with certainty, any of these potential legislative or regulatory actions could, among other things, subject us to additional costs, limit the types of financial services and products we may offer, and reduce our profitability, any of which could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations or financial condition.

Current report

Economic Conditions in the U.S. May Soften or Become Recessionary with Resultant Adverse Consequences for the U.S. Financial Services Industry and for the Bank

Current report

Following the financial crisis of 2008, adverse financial and economic developments impacted U.S. and global economies and financial markets and presented challenges for the banking and financial services industry and for us. These developments included a general recession both globally and in the U.S. accompanied by substantial volatility in the financial markets.

Current report

In response, various significant economic and monetary stimulus measures were implemented by the U.S. government. The FRB also pursued a highly accommodative monetary policy aimed at keeping interest rates at historically low levels. The more recent tightening of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies, including repeated and aggressive increases in target range for the federal funds rate as well as the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s tapering of asset purchases, together with ongoing economic and geopolitical instability, increases the risk of an economic recession. The Federal Reserve has signaled caution in easing monetary policy citing strong robust GDP growth, and persistent inflation as reasons to delay rate cuts.

Current report

As noted previously, the Trump Administration recently imposed increased tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. from other countries. As a consequence, other countries, in retaliation to the U.S.’s tariff measures, announced the imposition of increased levels of tariffs

Current report

on goods exported to such countries by companies in the U.S. The Administration subsequently announced a delay of 90 days in the implementation of those increased tariffs for most other countries, leaving in place, however, a 10% baseline tariff that went into effect on April 5 and that applies to nearly all imports from all countries. It remains unclear what the Administration or foreign governments will or will not do with respect to tariffs or trade agreements and policies. International trade disputes, including those related to tariffs, could result in inflationary pressures and/or adversely impact global supply chains, which could increase the costs of doing business for our banking customers. Political tensions as a result of trade policies could reduce trade volume, investment, technological exchange, and other economic activities between major international economies, resulting in a material adverse effect on global economic conditions and the stability of global financial markets, which could have resulting material adverse effects on general economic conditions nationally, in California, or in our local markets. Some economists have predicted that the Administration’s steep new tariffs could curtail growth and result in price increases for American consumers, ultimately increasing the likelihood of a U.S. recession. Any of these developments could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Current report

We, and other financial services companies, are impacted to a significant degree by current economic conditions. If the U.S. economy weakens, our growth and profitability from our lending, deposit and investment operations could be constrained and our asset quality, deposit levels, loan demand and results of operations may be adversely affected.

Current report

The U.S. government continues to face significant fiscal and budgetary challenges which, if not resolved, could result in renewed adverse U.S. economic conditions. These challenges may be intensified over time if federal budget deficits were to increase and Congress and the Administration cannot effectively work to address them. The overall level of the federal government's debt, the extensive political disagreements regarding the government's statutory debt limit and the continuing substantial federal budget deficits led to a downgrade from “AAA” to “AA+” of the long-term sovereign credit rating of United States debt by one credit rating agency in 2023. This risk could be exacerbated over time.

Current report

If substantial federal budget deficits were to continue or increase in the years ahead, further downgrades by the credit rating agencies with respect to the obligations of the U.S. federal government could occur. Any such further downgrades could increase over time the U.S. federal government’s cost of borrowing, which may worsen its fiscal challenges, as well as generate further upward pressure on interest rates generally in the U.S. which could, in turn, have adverse consequences for borrowers and the level of business activity. The long-term impact of this situation, including the impact to the Bank's investment securities portfolio and other assets, cannot be predicted.

Current report

Adverse Economic Factors Affecting Certain Industries the Bank Serves Could Adversely Affect Our Business

Current report

The Bank is subject to certain industry-specific economic factors. For example, a portion of the Bank’s total loan portfolio is related to residential and commercial real estate, especially in California. Increases in residential mortgage loan interest rates could have an adverse effect on the Bank’s operations by depressing new mortgage loan originations, which in turn could negatively impact the Bank’s title and escrow deposit levels. Additionally, a downturn in the residential real estate and housing industries in California could have an adverse effect on the Bank’s operations and the quality of its real estate and construction loan portfolio. Although the Bank does not engage in subprime or negative amortization lending, we are not immune to volatility in the real estate market. Real estate valuations are influenced by demand, and demand is driven by economic factors such as employment rates and interest rates, which have been, and may continue to be, affected by the pandemic. These factors could adversely impact the quality of the Bank’s residential construction, residential mortgage and construction related commercial portfolios in various ways, including by decreasing the value of the collateral for our loans, and thereby negatively affecting the Bank’s overall loan portfolio.

Current report

The Bank provides financing to, and receives deposits from, businesses in a number of other industries that may be particularly vulnerable to industry-specific economic factors, including the home building, commercial real estate, retail, agricultural, industrial, and commercial industries. Following the financial crisis of 2008, the home building industry in California was especially adversely impacted by the deterioration in residential real estate markets, which lead the Bank to take additional provisions and charge-offs against credit losses in this portfolio. The recessionary economic and market conditions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic also significantly affected the commercial and residential real estate markets in the U.S. generally, and in California in particular, decreasing property values, increasing the risk of defaults and reducing the value of real estate collateral. Continued volatility in fuel prices and energy costs and return of drought conditions in California could also adversely affect businesses in several of these industries.

Current report

As noted previously, the Trump Administration recently imposed increased tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. from other countries. As a consequence, other countries, in retaliation to the U.S.’s tariff measures, announced the imposition of increased levels of tariffs on goods exported to such countries by companies in the U.S. The Administration subsequently announced a delay of 90 days in the implementation of those increased tariffs for most other countries, leaving in place, however, a 10% baseline tariff that went into effect on April 5 and that applies to nearly all imports from all countries. Such tariffs could be of particular concern to U.S. companies operating in the agricultural sector who export agricultural goods to other countries. The Company’s customers include a

Current report

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number of agricultural businesses, which could be negatively affected. See “Changes in U.S. and Foreign Government Policies, Including the Imposition of or Further Increases in Tariffs and Changes to Existing Trade Agreements, Could Have a Material Adverse Effect on the Bank’s Customers, Which, in Turn, Could Adversely Affect Our Business, Financial Condition and Results of Operations,” above in these “Risk Factors” in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.

Current report

Industry specific risks are beyond the Bank’s control and could adversely affect the Bank’s portfolio of loans, potentially resulting in an increase in non-performing loans or charge-offs and a slowing of growth or reduction in our loan portfolio.

Current report

In recent years, wildfires across California and in our market areas resulted in significant damage and destruction of property and equipment. The fire damage resulted in adverse economic impacts to those affected markets and beyond and on the Bank's customers. In addition, the major electric utility company in our region has adopted programs of electrical power shut-offs, often for multiple days, in wide areas of Northern California during periods of high winds and high fire danger. Shut-offs of power by this utility have adversely impacted the business of some of our customers and also have resulted in some of our branches being temporarily closed. It can be expected that these events will continue to occur from time to time in the areas served by the Bank, and that the consequences of these natural disasters, including programs of public utility public safety power outages when weather conditions and fire danger warrant, may adversely affect the Bank’s business and that of its customers. It is also possible that climate change may be increasing the severity or frequency of adverse weather conditions, thus increasing the impact of these types of natural disasters on our business and that of our customers. For additional information, see "Our Operations, Business and Customers Could be Materially Adversely Affected by the Physical Effects of Climate Change, as well as Governmental and Societal Responses to Climate Change," in "Risk Factors" in our 2024 Form 10-K.

Current report

The long-term impact of these developments on the markets we serve cannot be predicted at this time.

Current report

The Bank is Subject to Interest Rate Risk

Current report

The income of the Bank depends to a great extent on “interest rate differentials” and the resulting net interest margins (i.e., the difference between the interest rates earned on the Bank’s interest-earning assets such as loans and investment securities, and the interest rates paid on the Bank’s interest-bearing liabilities such as deposits and borrowings). Changes in the relationship between short-term and long-term market interest rates or between different interest rate indices can impact our interest rate differential, possibly resulting in a decrease in our interest income relative to interest expense. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors, which are beyond the Bank’s control, including, but not limited to, general economic conditions and the policies of various governmental and regulatory agencies, in particular, the FRB. Changes in monetary policy, including changes in interest rates, influence the origination of loans, the purchase of investments and the generation of deposits and affect the rates received on loans and investment securities and paid on deposits. In addition, an increase in interest rates could adversely affect clients’ ability to pay the principal or interest on existing loans or reduce their borrowings. This may lead to an increase in our non-performing assets, a decrease in loan originations, or a reduction in the value of and income from our loans, any of which could have a material and negative effect on our operations.

Current report

Fluctuations in market rates and other market disruptions are neither predictable nor controllable and may adversely affect our financial condition and earnings. Since 2022, inflationary pressures have affected many aspects of the U.S. economy, including gasoline and fuel prices, and global and domestic supply-chain issues have also had a disruptive effect on many industries, including the agricultural industry. In January 2022, due to elevated levels of inflation and corresponding pressure to raise interest rates, the FRB announced after several periods of historically low federal funds rates and yields on Treasury notes that it would be slowing the pace of its bond purchasing and increasing the target range for the federal funds rate over time. The FOMC increased the target range 525 basis points from March 2022 through July 2023. The target range remained unchanged through much of 2024 until the FOMC decreased the rate 100 basis points during the last four months of the year. As of December 31, 2024, the target range for the federal funds rate had been decreased to 4.25% to 4.50%. It remains uncertain whether the FOMC will further decrease the target range for the federal funds rate to attain a monetary policy sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to more normalized levels, further reduce the federal funds rate or leave the rate at its current elevated level for a lengthy period of time. As noted previously, the Trump Administration recently imposed increased tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. from other countries. As a consequence, other countries, in retaliation to the U.S.’s tariff measures, announced the imposition of increased levels of tariffs on goods exported to such countries by companies in the U.S. The Administration subsequently announced a delay of 90 days in the implementation of those increased tariffs for most other countries, leaving in place, however, a 10% baseline tariff that went into effect on April 5 and that applies to nearly all imports from all countries. Such tariffs could result in increased inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy. These developments could adversely affect our banking customers’ businesses, which, in turn, could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. See “Economic Conditions in the U.S. May Soften or Become Recessionary with Resultant Adverse Consequences for the U.S. Financial Services Industry and for the Bank,” above in these “Risk Factors” in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.

Current report

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Beginning in 2021, the U.S. Economy Began to Reflect Relatively Rapid Rates of Increase in the Consumer Price Index and Other Economic Indices; a Prolonged Elevated Rate of Inflation Could Present Risks for the U.S. Banking Industry and Our Business.

Current report

Beginning in 2021, the U.S. economy exhibited relatively rapid rates of increase in the consumer price index and other economic indices. If the U.S. economy encounters a significant, prolonged rate of inflation, this could pose higher relative risks to the banking industry and our business. Such inflationary periods have historically corresponded with relatively weaker earnings and higher credit losses for banks. In the past, inflationary environments have caused financing conditions to tighten and have increased borrowing costs for some marginal borrowers which, in turn, has impacted bank credit quality and loan growth. Additionally, a sustained period of inflation well above the FRB’s long-term target could prompt broad-based selling of longer-duration, fixed-rate debt, which could have negative implications for equity and real estate markets. Lower interest rates enable less credit-worthy borrowers to more readily meet their debt obligations. Small businesses and leveraged loan borrowers can be challenged in a materially higher-rate environment. Higher interest rates can also present challenges for commercial real estate projects, pressuring valuations and loan-to-value ratios. The FRB initiated a series of significant interest rate increases in response to the recent economic developments. For additional information, see "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Results of Operations - Net Interest Income" in our 2024 Form 10-K and "-Interest Income" in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q.

Current report

In addition, the war between Russia and Ukraine and global reactions thereto have increased U.S. domestic and global energy prices. Oil supply disruptions related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and sanctions and other measures taken by the U.S. or its allies, could lead to higher costs for gas, food and goods in the U.S. and exacerbate the inflationary pressures on the economy. As noted previously, the Trump Administration recently imposed increased tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. from other countries. As a consequence, other countries, in retaliation to the U.S.’s tariff measures, announced the imposition of increased levels of tariffs on goods exported to such countries by companies in the U.S. The Administration subsequently announced a delay of 90 days in the implementation of those increased tariffs for most other countries, leaving in place, however, a 10% baseline tariff that went into effect on April 5 and that applies to nearly all imports from all countries. Such tariffs could result in increased inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy. These developments could adversely affect our banking customers’ businesses, which, in turn, could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. See “Economic Conditions in the U.S. May Soften or Become Recessionary with Resultant Adverse Consequences for the U.S. Financial Services Industry and for the Bank,” above in these “Risk Factors” in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.

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Previous report

ITEM 1A. – RISK FACTORS

Previous report

For a discussion of risk factors relating to our business, please refer to Part I, Item 1A of our 2023 Form 10-K, which is incorporated by reference herein, and to the following:

Previous report

Several of California’s Largest Home Insurance Providers Have Recently Paused or Severely Limited Their Issuance of New Policies, or Their Renewal of Existing Policies, in the State, Which Could Increase the Bank’s Risk of Loss in its Loan Portfolio

Previous report

At September 30, 2024, loans secured by real estate comprised approximately 87% of the total loans in the Bank’s portfolio. At September 30, 2024, all of the Bank’s real estate mortgage and construction loans were secured fully or in part by deeds of trust on underlying real estate. Most of the Company’s customers, including its loan customers, are located in the State of California.

Previous report

Recently, several of California’s largest home insurance providers, including State Farm, Allstate, Farmers, USAA, Travelers, Nationwide and Chubb, have either paused or severely limited their issuance of new policies, or their renewal of existing policies, in the state. Mounting claims from wildfire damages, the increasing cost of building and repairing homes in California, and a steep increase in reinsurance premiums, as well as state insurance regulations that make it difficult for insurers to adjust premiums in response to the evolving risk landscape, have challenged the capacity of insurance companies to sustainably and profitably offer home insurance in California. The result of these actions has been to significantly limit the availability of home insurance in California, where homeowners already face escalating property values and high wildfire, seismic, severe weather and other risks.

Previous report

The California Department of Insurance enforces some safeguards to temporarily shield homeowners from the cancellation or non-renewal of home insurance policies in high-risk areas, particularly those prone to wildfires. In addition, the California Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) Plan, a state-established risk pool, operates as an insurer of last resort, providing temporary coverage for California homeowners unable to obtain (generally at increased premium cost) such coverage from a traditional insurance carrier; however, enrollment in the FAIR Plan as a percentage of the total number of residential insurance policies in California has steadily increased over the past five years, particularly in counties with the highest wildfire risk, threatening the ongoing stability of the Plan. In late 2023, following the California Governor’s declaration of a State of Emergency regarding property insurance, the Insurance Commissioner of the State of California introduced a comprehensive package of executive actions aimed at insurance reform. In August 2024, the California Department of Insurance issued proposed regulations intended to cause insurance companies to write more policies in wildfire distressed areas of California as a condition for using forward-looking wildfire modeling designed to more accurately assess wildfire risks and to reverse FAIR Plan growth. There can be no assurance that these regulatory actions will increase insurance availability or stabilize and strengthen California’s insurance market.

Previous report

Many homeowners in the State of California have been negatively impacted by the contraction of insurance options in the State and the resulting lack of access to affordable home insurance, which could adversely impact the ability of prospective homebuyers to obtain insurance, and escalating premiums and limited coverage options could result in limiting coverage in the event of loss. If any loss suffered by a loan customer of the Bank is not insured or exceeds applicable insurance limits, this could increase the risk of loss in the Bank’s loan portfolio, which could have a material adverse effect on the Company’s business, financial condition, and results of operations. For additional information, see “The Bank’s Dependence on Real Estate Lending Increases Our Risk of Losses” in Part I, Item 1A “Risk Factors” in our 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Previous report

Increases in the Allowance for Credit Losses Would Adversely Affect the Bank’s Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Previous report

The Bank’s allowance for credit losses on loans was approximately $16.4 million, or 1.55% of total loans, at September 30, 2024, compared to $16.6 million, or 1.55% of total loans, at December 31, 2023, and 418.5% of total non-performing loans net of guaranteed portions at September 30, 2024, compared to 199.1% of total non-performing loans, net of guaranteed portions at December 31, 2023. Reversal of provision for credit losses totaling $550 thousand and provision for credit losses totaling $500 thousand for the three-month periods ended September 30, 2024 and September 30, 2023, respectively. Provision for credit losses totaling $200 thousand and $3.1 million for the nine-month periods ended September 30, 2024 and September 30, 2023, respectively.

Previous report

Material future additions to the allowance for estimated losses on loans may be necessary if material adverse changes in economic conditions in our markets were to continue to occur and the performance of the Bank’s loan portfolio were to deteriorate.

Previous report

Other real estate owned is initially recorded at fair value less estimated costs to sell the property, thereby establishing the new cost basis of other real estate. Losses arising at the time of acquisition of such properties are charged against the allowance for credit losses. Subsequent to acquisition, such properties are carried at the lower of cost or fair value less estimated selling expenses, determined on an individual asset basis. Any deficiency resulting from the excess of cost over fair value less estimated selling expenses is recognized as a valuation allowance. Any subsequent increase in fair value up to its cost basis is recorded as a reduction of the valuation allowance. The FDIC and the California DFPI, as an integral part of their examination process, periodically review the Bank’s allowance for credit losses on loans and the carrying value of its assets. Increases in the provision for credit losses on loans and valuation allowance on foreclosed assets would adversely affect the Bank’s financial condition and results of operations.

Previous report

The Bank’s Dependence on Real Estate Lending Increases Our Risk of Losses

Previous report

The Bank’s primary lending focus has historically been commercial (including agricultural), construction, and real estate mortgage. At September 30, 2024, loans secured by real estate comprised approximately 87% of the total loans in the Bank’s portfolio. At September 30, 2024, all of the Bank’s real estate mortgage and construction loans and approximately 1% of its commercial loans were secured fully or in part by deeds of trust on underlying real estate. The Company’s dependence on real estate increases the risk of loss in both the Bank’s loan portfolio and its holdings of other real estate owned if economic conditions in Northern California were to deteriorate. Deterioration of the real estate market in Northern California would have a material adverse effect on the Company’s business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Previous report

The CFPB has adopted various regulations which have impacted, and will continue to impact, our residential mortgage lending business.