Algoma Steel Group Inc.
For the period ended Jun 30, 2026. Filed Jul 30, 2026.
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Jun 30, 2026 · Filed Jul 30, 2026
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ASTL$5.38+7.8%Stored close · as of Nov 6, 2026
Contents
EX-99.2 · Trend Analysis
Trend Analysis
The Company’s financial performance for Q2 2026 increased from Q1 2026, primarily due to an increase in Adjusted EBITDA per net ton (“nt”). The following discussion reflects the Company’s trend analysis in chronological order:
Revenue:
| · | decreased C$10.0 million or 2% from C$600.3 million in Q2 (nine months ended December 31, 2024) to C$590.3 million in Q3 (nine months ended December 31, 2024), a result of lower selling prices of steel. This was offset, in part, by higher shipment volumes. |
| · | decreased C$73.2 million or 12% from C$590.3 million in Q3 (nine months ended December 31, 2024) to C$517.1 million in Q1 2025, a result of lower selling prices of steel and shipment volumes. |
| · | increased C$72.6 million or 14% from C$517.1 million in Q1 2025 to C$589.7 million in Q2 2025, a result of higher selling prices of steel. |
| · | decreased C$65.8 million or 11% from C$589.7 million in Q2 2025 to C$523.9 million in Q3 2025, a result of lower shipment volumes. |
| · | decreased C$68.9 million or 13% from C$523.9 million in Q3 2025 to C$455.0 million in Q4 2025, a result of lower shipment volumes and lower selling prices of steel. |
| · | decreased C$158.1 million or 35% from C$455.0 million in Q4 2025 to C$296.9 million in Q1 2026, a result of lower shipment volumes, offset, in part, by higher selling prices of steel. |
| · | decreased C$29.4 million or 10% from C$296.9 million in Q1 2026 to C$267.5 million in Q2 2026, a result of lower shipment volumes, offset, in part, by higher selling prices of steel. |
Net (loss) income:
| · | of (C$66.5) million in Q3 (nine months ended December 31, 2024) decreased compared to (C$106.6) million in Q2 (nine months ended December 31, 2024) mostly due to foreign exchange gain (C$53.0 million), the change in fair value of IPO Warrant liability (C$35.0 million), the change in fair value of share-based compensation liability (C$13.9 million), and the change in fair value of earnout liability (C$5.9 million). This was offset, in part, by a decrease in other income (C$31.5 million), increased cost of sales (C$30.2 million), and decreased revenue (C$10.0 million). |
| · | of (C$24.5) million in Q1 2025 decreased compared to (C$66.5) million in Q3 (nine months ended December 31, 2024) mostly due to other income (C$49.4 million), the change in fair value of IPO Warrant liability (C$31.4 million), the change in fair value of share-based compensation liability (C$14.0 million), and the change in fair value of earnout liability (C$3.9 million). This was offset, in part, by an increase in foreign exchange loss (C$44.2 million) and loss from operations (C$15.1 million). |
| · | of (C$110.6) million in Q2 2025 increased compared to (C$24.5) million in Q1 2025 mostly due to a decrease in other income (C$50.0 million), the change in fair value of IPO Warrant liability (C$43.7 million), foreign exchange loss (C$30.6 million), the change in fair value of share-based compensation liability (C$20.4 million), and the change in fair value of earnout liability (C$5.7 million). This was offset, in part, by a decrease in loss from operations (C$54.8 million) and an increase in income tax recovery (C$10.5 million). |
| · | of (C$485.1) million in Q3 2025 increased compared to (C$110.6) million in Q2 2025 mostly due to a non-cash impairment loss (C$503.4 million) and an increase in loss from operations (C$63.0 million). This was offset, in part, by an increase in income tax recovery (C$108.8 million), foreign exchange gain (C$45.8 million), the change in fair value of IPO Warrant liability (C$16.5 million), the change in fair value of share-based compensation liability (C$16.5 million), and the change in fair value of earnout liability (C$4.3 million). |
| · | of (C$364.7) million in Q4 2025 decreased compared to (C$485.1) million in Q3 2025 primarily due to a decrease in loss from operations (C$201.8 million) and an increase in other income (C$26.2 million). This was offset, in part, by a decrease in income tax recovery (C$38.9 million), increase in foreign exchange loss (C$26.8 million), the change in fair value of IPO and LETL Warrant liabilities (C$16.8 million), the change in fair value of share-based compensation liability (C$13.3 million), and the change in fair value of earnout liability (C$3.5 million). |
| · | of (C$159.4) million in Q1 2026 decreased compared to (C$364.7) million in Q4 2025 primarily due to a decrease in loss from operations (C$296.2 million), an increase in foreign exchange gain (C$26.8 million), a decrease in finance cost (C$7.3 million), and the change in fair value of derivative (C$5.7 million). This was offset, in part, by a decrease in income tax recovery (C$106.8 million) and other income (C$26.1 million). |
| · | of (C$96.0) million in Q2 2026 decreased compared to (C$159.4) million in Q1 2026 primarily due to insurance proceeds (C$45.0 million), a decrease in loss from operations (C$19.3 million), change in fair value of warrant liability (C$3.6 million), and foreign exchange gain (C$4.5 million). This was offset, in part, by an increase in finance costs (C$9.9 million). |
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