TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES INCTX

Previous wording

The following discussion and analysis of the Company’s financial condition and results of operations for the six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023 should be read in conjunction with its audited consolidated financial statements and the related notes to the consolidated financial statements included in 2023 Form 10-K. Operating results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024 are not necessarily indicative of the results for the year ending December 31, 2024 or any future period.

Current wording

The following discussion and analysis of the Company’s financial condition and results of operations for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023 should be read in conjunction with its audited consolidated financial statements and the related notes to the consolidated financial statements included in 2023 Form 10-K. Operating results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024 are not necessarily indicative of the results for the year ending December 31, 2024 or any future period.

Previous wording

Because forward-looking statements relate to future results and occurrences, they are subject to inherent and various uncertainties, risks, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict, may change over time, are based on management’s expectations and assumptions at the time the statements are made and are not guarantees of future results. Numerous risks and other factors, many of which are beyond management’s control, could cause actual results to differ materially from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. While there can be no assurance that any list of risks is complete, important risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, economic or business conditions in Texas, the United States, or globally that impact TCBI or its customers; negative credit quality developments arising from the foregoing or other factors; TCBI’s ability to effectively manage its liquidity and maintain adequate regulatory capital to support its businesses; TCBI’s ability to pursue and execute upon growth plans, whether as a function of capital, liquidity, or other limitations; TCBI’s ability to successfully execute its business strategy, including developing and executing new lines of business and new products and services; the extensive regulations to which TCBI is subject and its ability to comply with applicable governmental regulations, including legislative and regulatory changes; TCBI’s ability to effectively manage information technology systems, including third party vendors, cyber or data privacy incidents, or other failures, disruptions or security breaches; elevated or further changes in interest rates, including the impact of interest rates on TCBI’s securities portfolio and funding costs, as well as related balance sheet implications stemming from the fair value of our assets and liabilities; the effectiveness of TCBI’s risk management processes, strategies and monitoring; fluctuations in commercial and residential real estate values, especially as they relate to the value of collateral supporting TCBI’s loans; the failure to identify, attract, and retain key personnel and other employees; increased or expanded competition from banks and other financial service providers in TCBI’s markets; adverse developments in the banking industry and the potential impact of such developments on customer confidence, liquidity and regulatory responses to these developments, including the context of regulatory examinations and related findings and actions; negative press and social media attention with respect to the banking industry or TCBI, in particular; claims, litigation or regulatory investigations and actions that TCBI may become subject to; severe weather, natural disasters, climate change, acts of war, terrorism, global conflict (including those already reported by the media, as well as others that may…

Excerpt shortened here; the source contains the full paragraph.

Current wording

Because forward-looking statements relate to future results and occurrences, they are subject to inherent and various uncertainties, risks, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict, may change over time, are based on management’s expectations and assumptions at the time the statements are made and are not guarantees of future results. Numerous risks and other factors, many of which are beyond management’s control, could cause actual results to differ materially from future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. While there can be no assurance that any list of risks is complete, important risks and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, economic or business conditions in Texas, the United States, or globally that impact TCBI or its customers; negative credit quality developments arising from the foregoing or other factors; TCBI’s ability to effectively manage its liquidity and maintain adequate regulatory capital to support its businesses; TCBI’s ability to pursue and execute upon growth plans, whether as a function of capital, liquidity, or other limitations; TCBI’s ability to successfully execute its business strategy, including its strategic plan and developing and executing new lines of business and new products and services; the extensive regulations to which TCBI is subject and its ability to comply with applicable governmental regulations, including legislative and regulatory changes; TCBI’s ability to effectively manage information technology systems, including third party vendors, cyber or data privacy incidents, or other failures, disruptions or security breaches; elevated or further changes in interest rates, including the impact of interest rates on TCBI’s securities portfolio and funding costs, as well as related balance sheet implications stemming from the fair value of our assets and liabilities; the effectiveness of TCBI’s risk management processes, strategies and monitoring; fluctuations in commercial and residential real estate values, especially as they relate to the value of collateral supporting TCBI’s loans; the failure to identify, attract, and retain key personnel and other employees; increased or expanded competition from banks and other financial service providers in TCBI’s markets; adverse developments in the banking industry and the potential impact of such developments on customer confidence, liquidity and regulatory responses to these developments, including in the context of regulatory examinations and related findings and actions; negative press and social media attention with respect to the banking industry or TCBI, in particular; claims, litigation or regulatory investigations and actions that TCBI may become subject to; severe weather, natural disasters, climate change, acts of war, terrorism, global conflict (including those already reported by the media, …

Excerpt shortened here; the source contains the full paragraph.

Previous wording

The Company reported net income of $41.7 million and net income available to common stockholders of $37.4 million for the second quarter of 2024, compared to net income of$68.7 million and net income available to common stockholders of $64.3 million for the second quarter of 2023. On a fully diluted basis, earnings per common share were $0.80 for the second quarter of 2024, compared to $1.33 for the same period in 2023. ROE was 5.26% and ROA was 0.56% for the second quarter of 2024, compared to 9.17% and 0.95%, respectively, for the same period in 2023. The decrease in net income for the second quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2023 resulted primarily from a decrease in net interest income and an increase in provision for credit losses.

Current wording

The Company reported net loss of $61.3 million and net loss available to common stockholders of $65.6 million for the third quarter of 2024, compared to net income of$61.7 million and net income available to common stockholders of $57.4 million for the third quarter of 2023. On a fully diluted basis, earnings/(loss) per common share was $(1.41) for the third quarter of 2024, compared to $1.18 for the same period in 2023. ROE was (8.87)% and ROA was (0.78)% for the third quarter of 2024, compared to 8.08% and 0.81%, respectively, for the same period in 2023. The decrease in net income for the third quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2023 resulted primarily from a decrease in non-interest income, resulting primarily from the $179.6 million loss on sale of available-for-sale debt securities during the third quarter of 2024.

Previous wording

The Company reported net income of $67.8 million and net income available to common stockholders of $59.2 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to net income of $107.3 million and net income available to common stockholders of $98.7 million for the same period in 2023. On a fully diluted basis, earnings per common share were $1.25 for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to $2.02 for the same period in 2023. ROE was 4.14% and ROA was 0.46% for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to 7.15% and 0.74%, respectively, for the same period in 2023. The decrease in net income for the six months ended June 30, 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 resulted primarily from a decrease in net interest income and an increase in non-interest expense.

Current wording

The Company reported net income of $6.5 million and net loss available to common stockholders of $6.5 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to net income of $169.0 million and net income available to common stockholders of $156.1 million for the same period in 2023. On a fully diluted basis, earnings/(loss) per common share was $(0.14) for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $3.20 for the same period in 2023. ROE was (0.30)% and ROA was 0.03% for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 7.46% and 0.77%, respectively, for the same period in 2023. The decrease in net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 compared to the same period in 2023 resulted primarily from a decrease in non-interest income, also primarily as a result of the loss on sale of available-for-sale debt securities described above.

Previous wording

Average earning assets for the three months ended June 30, 2024 increased $619.9 million compared to the same period in 2023, which included increases of $512.4 million in average total loans held for investment and $120.1 million in average investment securities, partially offset by a $13.0 million decrease in average interest-bearing cash and cash equivalents. Average interest-bearing liabilities increased $1.7 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to a $2.2 billion increase in average interest-bearing deposits, partially offset by decreases of $470.0 million in average short-term borrowings and $105.5 million in average long-term debt related to the second quarter 2024 redemption in full of the bank-issued senior unsecured credit-linked notes of $275.0 million. Average non-interest bearing deposits for the three months ended June 30, 2024 decreased to $8.6 billion from $9.7 billion for the same period in 2023.

Current wording

Average earning assets for the three months ended September 30, 2024 increased $997.5 million compared to the same period in 2023, which included increases of $901.7 million in average total loans held for investment and $110.1 million in average investment securities, partially offset by a $6.2 million decrease in average interest bearing cash and cash equivalents. Average interest bearing liabilities increased $1.5 billion for the three months ended September 30, 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to a $2.1 billion increase in average interest bearing deposits, partially offset by decreases of $380.9 million in average short-term borrowings and $198.1 million in average long-term debt. Average non-interest bearing deposits for the three months ended September 30, 2024 decreased to $9.4 billion from $10.0 billion for the same period in 2023.

Previous wording

Net interest margin for the three months ended June 30, 2024 was 3.01%, compared to 3.29% for the same period in 2023. The decrease in net interest margin was primarily due to an increase in funding costs, partially offset by an increase in yields on average earning assets. The increases in yields on earnings assets and cost of funds are attributed to the impact of rising interest rates.

Current wording

Net interest margin for the three months ended September 30, 2024 was 3.16%, compared to 3.13% for the same period in 2023. The increase in net interest margin was primarily due to an increase in yields on investment securities, partially offset by an increase in the cost of interest bearing deposits. The increases in yields on earnings assets and cost of funds are attributed to the impact of rising interest rates.

Previous wording

The yield on total loans held for investment increased to 6.65% for the three months ended June 30, 2024, compared to 6.56% for the same period in 2023, and the yield on earning assets increased to 5.86% for the three months ended June 30, 2024, compared to 5.69% for the same period in 2023. Total cost of deposits increased to 2.99% for the three months ended June 30, 2024 from 2.37% for the same period in 2023, and total funding costs, including non-interest bearing deposits and stockholders' equity, increased to 2.83% for the three months ended June 30, 2024, compared to 2.38% for the same period in 2023.

Current wording

The yield on total loans held for investment increased to 6.62% for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 6.58% for the same period in 2023, and the yield on earning assets increased to 5.96% for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 5.75% for the same period in 2023. Total cost of deposits increased to 2.94% for the three months ended September 30, 2024 from 2.62% for the same period in 2023, and total funding costs, including non-interest bearing deposits and stockholders' equity, increased to 2.76% for the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 2.60% for the same period in 2023.

Previous wording

Net interest income was $431.6 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to $467.3 million for the same period in 2023. The decrease was primarily due to rising funding costs and an increase in average interest bearing deposits, partially offset by an increase in yields on average earnings assets and an increase in average total earning assets.

Current wording

Net interest income was $671.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $699.4 million for the same period in 2023. The decrease was primarily due to increases in the cost of interest bearing deposits and average interest bearing deposits, partially offset by an increase in yields on average earnings assets and an increase in average total loans held for investment.

Previous wording

Average earning assets increased $267.7 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, which included increases of $830.0 million in average total loans held for investment and $178.8 million in average investment securities, partially offset by a decrease of $745.1 million in average interest-bearing cash and cash equivalents. Average interest-bearing liabilities increased $1.5 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to an increase of $2.0 billion in average interest-bearing deposits, partially offset by a $400.8 million decrease in average short-term borrowings. Average non-interest bearing deposits for the six months ended June 30, 2024 decreased to $8.6 billion from $10.0 billion for the same period in 2023.

Current wording

Average earning assets increased $511.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, which included increases of $852.5 million in average total loans held for investment and $155.7 million in average investment securities, partially offset by a decrease of $496.5 million in average interest bearing cash and cash equivalents. Average interest bearing liabilities increased $1.5 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to an increase of $2.0 billion in average interest bearing deposits, partially offset by a $394.2 million decrease in average short-term borrowings and $125.4 million decrease in average long-term debt. Average non-interest bearing deposits for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 decreased to $8.9 billion from $10.0 billion for the same period in 2023.

Previous wording

Net interest margin for thesix months ended June 30, 2024 was 3.02%, compared to 3.31% for the same period of 2023. The decrease was primarily due to the effect of rising interest rates on funding costs, partially offset by higher earning asset yields, also as a result of rising interest rates, compared to the same period in 2023.

Current wording

Net interest margin for thenine months ended September 30, 2024 was 3.07%, compared to 3.25% for the same period of 2023. The decrease was primarily due to the effect of rising interest rates on the cost of interest bearing deposits, partially offset by higher earning asset yields, also as a result of rising interest rates, compared to the same period in 2023.

Previous wording

The yield on total loans held for investment increased to 6.68% for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to 6.51% for the same period in 2023, and the yield on earning assets increased to 5.87% for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to 5.57% for the same period in 2023. Total cost of deposits increased to 2.98% for the six months ended June 30, 2024 from 2.22% for the same period in 2023 and total funding costs, including non-interest bearing deposits and stockholders' equity, increased to 2.83% for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to 2.24% forthe same period in 2023.

Current wording

The yield on total loans held for investment increased to 6.66% for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 6.53% for the same period in 2023, and the yield on earning assets increased to 5.90% for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 5.63% for the same period in 2023. Total cost of deposits increased to 2.97% for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 from 2.36% for the same period in 2023 and total funding costs, including non-interest bearing deposits and stockholders' equity, increased to 2.80% for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to 2.36% for the same period in 2023.

Previous wording

Non-interest income increased $4.4 million during the three months ended June 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. The increase was primarily due to increases in investment banking and advisory fees, partially offset by a decrease in trading income.

Current wording

Non-interest income decreased $161.6 million during the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. The decrease was primarily due to the $179.6 million loss on sale of available-for-sale debt securities recognized during the third quarter of 2024, partially offset by increases in investment banking and advisory fees and other non-interest income.

Previous wording

Non-interest income increased $8.3 million during the six months ended June 30, 2024 to $91.7 million, compared to $83.4 million for the same period in 2023. The increase was primarily due to an increase in investment banking and advisory fees.

Current wording

Non-interest income decreased $153.3 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $130.3 million for the same period in 2023, primarily due to the $179.6 million loss on sale of available-for-sale debt securities recognized during the third quarter of 2024, partially offset by an increase in investment banking and advisory fees.

Previous wording

Non-interest expense increased $6.8 million during the three months ended June 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. The increase was primarily due to increases in salaries and benefits, occupancy expense, communications and technology expense, FDIC insurance assessment and other non-interest expense, partially offset by a decrease in legal and professional expense.

Current wording

Non-interest expense increased $15.4 million during the three months ended September 30, 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. The increase was primarily due to increases in salaries and benefits, occupancy expense and communications and technology expense, partially offset by a decrease in legal and professional expense. The third quarter of 2024 included restructuring expenses of $2.4 million recorded in salaries and benefits, $476,000 recorded in occupancy expense and $3.1 million recorded in communications and technology expense. The third quarter of 2024 also included a $651,000 release of FDIC special assessment accrual.

Previous wording

Total loans held for investment were $21.8 billion at June 30, 2024, an increase of $1.4 billion from December 31, 2023. The Company experienced loan growth in all loan categories as it has continued to execute on its long-term strategy. Mortgage finance loans relate to the mortgage warehouse lending operations in which the Company purchases mortgage loan ownership interests that are typically sold within 10 to 20 days and represent 23% and 19% of gross loans held for investment at June 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. Volumes fluctuate based on the level of market demand for the product and the number of days between purchase and sale of the loans, which can be affected by changes in overall market interest rates, and tend to peak at the end of each month.

Current wording

Total loans held for investment were $22.3 billion at September 30, 2024, an increase of $2.0 billion from December 31, 2023. The Company experienced loan growth in all loan categories, except for commercial real estate, as it has continued to execute on its long-term strategy. Commercial loan growth includes the impact of the acquisition of a $332.0 million loan portfolio completed during the third quarter of 2024. Mortgage finance loans relate to the mortgage warehouse lending operations in which the Company purchases mortgage loan ownership interests that are typically sold within 10 to 20 days and represent 25% and 19% of gross loans held for investment at September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. Volumes fluctuate based on the level of market demand for the product and the number of days between purchase and sale of the loans, which can be affected by changes in overall market interest rates, and tend to peak at the end of each month.

Previous wording

The Company originates a substantial majority of all loans held for investment. The Company also participates in shared national credits, both as a participant and as an agent. As of June 30, 2024, the Company had $5.3 billion in shared national credits, $871.9 million of which the Company administered as agent. All syndicated loans, whether the Company acts as agent or participant, are underwritten to the same standards as all other loans the Company originates. As of June 30, 2024, approximately $16.8 million of the Company’s shared national credits were on non-accrual.

Current wording

The Company originates a substantial majority of all loans held for investment. The Company also participates in shared national credits, both as a participant and as an agent. As of September 30, 2024, the Company had $5.3 billion in shared national credits, $1.0 billion of which the Company administered as agent. All syndicated loans, whether the Company acts as agent or participant, are underwritten to the same standards as all other loans the Company originates. As of September 30, 2024, approximately $16.5 million of the Company’s shared national credits were on non-accrual.

Previous wording

The Company recorded a provision for credit losses of$39.0 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to a provision of$35.0 millionfor the six months ended June 30, 2023. The provision for credit losses for the six months ended June 30, 2024 reflects growth in loans held for investment and $22.7 million in net charge-offs recorded during the six months ended June 30, 2024. The Company recorded $22.7 million in net charge-offs during the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to $28.1 million in net charge-offs during the same period in 2023. Criticized loans totaled $859.7 million at June 30, 2024, compared to $738.2 million at December 31, 2023.

Current wording

The Company recorded a provision for credit losses of $49.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to a provision of $53.0 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2023. The provision for credit losses for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 reflects growth in loans held for investment and $28.8 million in net charge-offs recorded during the nine months ended September 30, 2024. The Company recorded $28.8 million in net charge-offs during the nine months ended September 30, 2024, compared to $37.1 million in net charge-offs during the same period in 2023. Criticized loans totaled $897.7 million at September 30, 2024, compared to$738.2 million at December 31, 2023.

Previous wording

(1)Ratios are calculated using average balance for the six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively.

Current wording

(1)Ratios are calculated using average balance for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively.

Previous wording

(2)Ratios are annualized utilizing provision for credit losses for the six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively.

Current wording

(2)Ratios are annualized utilizing provision for credit losses for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively.

Previous wording

(1)Ratios are calculated using net charge-offs for the six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively.

Current wording

(1)Ratios are calculated using net charge-offs for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively.

Previous wording

(2)Unsecured revolving, non-amortizing line of credit with maturity date of February 8, 2025. Proceeds may be used for general corporate purposes, including funding regulatory capital infusions into the Bank. The loan agreement contains customary financial covenants and restrictions. No borrowings were made against this line of credit during the six months ended June 30, 2024 or 2023.

Current wording

(2)Unsecured revolving, non-amortizing line of credit with maturity date of February 8, 2025. Proceeds may be used for general corporate purposes, including funding regulatory capital infusions into the Bank. The loan agreement contains customary financial covenants and restrictions. No borrowings were made against this line of credit during the nine months ended September 30, 2024 or 2023.

Previous wording

The Company has long-term debt outstanding of $660.0 million as of June 30, 2024, comprised of trust preferred securities and subordinated notes with maturity dates ranging from January 2026 to December 2036. See Note 5 - Short-Term Borrowings and Long-Term Debt in the accompanying notes to the consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this report for additional information. The Company may consider raising additional capital, if needed, in public or private offerings of debt or equity securities to supplement deposits and meet its long-term funding needs.

Current wording

The Company has long-term debt outstanding of $660.2 million as of September 30, 2024, comprised of trust preferred securities and subordinated notes with maturity dates ranging from January 2026 to December 2036. See Note 5 - Short-Term Borrowings and Long-Term Debt in the accompanying notes to the consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this report for additional information. The Company may consider raising additional capital, if needed, in public or private offerings of debt or equity securities to supplement deposits and meet its long-term funding needs.

Previous wording

The Company’s equity capital averaged $3.2 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2024 compared to$3.1 billionfor the same period in 2023. The Company has not paid any cash dividends on common stock since operations commenced and has no plans to do so in the foreseeable future.

Current wording

The Company’s equity capital averaged $3.2 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 compared to$3.1 billionfor the same period in 2023. The Company has not paid any cash dividends on common stock since operations commenced and has no plans to do so in the foreseeable future.

Previous wording

On January 17, 2024, the Company’s board of directors authorized a new share repurchase program under which the Company may repurchase up to $150.0 million in shares of its outstanding common stock. Remaining repurchase authorization under the January 18, 2023 share repurchase program was terminated upon authorization of this new program. Any repurchases under the repurchase program will be made in accordance with applicable securities laws from time to time in open market or private transactions. The extent to which the Company repurchases shares, and the timing of such repurchases, will be at management’s discretion and will depend upon a variety of factors, including market conditions, our capital position and amount of retained earnings, regulatory requirements and other considerations. The share repurchase program is set to expire on January 31, 2025, and the program may be suspended or discontinued at any time. During the six months ended June 30, 2024, the Company repurchased 1,381,436 shares of its common stock for an aggregate purchase price, including excise tax expense, of $81.5 million, at a weighted average price of $58.57 per share.

Current wording

On January 17, 2024, the Company’s board of directors authorized a new share repurchase program under which the Company may repurchase up to $150.0 million in shares of its outstanding common stock. Remaining repurchase authorization under the January 18, 2023 share repurchase program was terminated upon authorization of this new program. Any repurchases under the repurchase program will be made in accordance with applicable securities laws from time to time in open market or private transactions. The extent to which the Company repurchases shares, and the timing of such repurchases, will be at management’s discretion and will depend upon a variety of factors, including market conditions, our capital position and amount of retained earnings, regulatory requirements and other considerations. The share repurchase program is set to expire on January 31, 2025, and the program may be suspended or discontinued at any time. During the nine months ended September 30, 2024, the Company repurchased 1,381,436 shares of its common stock for an aggregate purchase price, including excise tax expense, of $81.5 million, at a weighted average price of $58.57 per share.

Previous wording

Management considers a range of macroeconomic scenarios in connection with the allowance estimation process. Within the various economic scenarios considered as of June 30, 2024, the quantitative estimate of the allowance for credit loss would increase by approximately $151.7 million under sole consideration of the most severe downside scenario. The quoted sensitivity calculation reflects the sensitivity of the modeled allowance estimate to macroeconomic forecast data, but is absent of qualitative overlays and other qualitative adjustments that are part of the quarterly reserving process and does not necessarily reflect the nature and extent of future changes in the allowance for reasons including increases or decreases in qualitative adjustments, changes in the risk profile and size of the portfolio, changes in the severity of the macroeconomic scenario and the range of scenarios under management consideration.

Current wording

Management considers a range of macroeconomic scenarios in connection with the allowance estimation process. Within the various economic scenarios considered as of September 30, 2024, the quantitative estimate of the allowance for credit loss would increase by approximately $108.3 million under sole consideration of the most severe downside scenario. The quoted sensitivity calculation reflects the sensitivity of the modeled allowance estimate to macroeconomic forecast data, but is absent of qualitative overlays and other qualitative adjustments that are part of the quarterly reserving process and does not necessarily reflect the nature and extent of future changes in the allowance for reasons including increases or decreases in qualitative adjustments, changes in the risk profile and size of the portfolio, changes in the severity of the macroeconomic scenario and the range of scenarios under management consideration.