FARMERS & MERCHANTS BANCORP INC

Current report

Trade Policy Risk

Current report

The ongoing trade policies and tariff initiatives being pursued by the U.S. government under the administration of President Trump could present potential risks unique to the markets within which we operate. Many of our commercial borrowers operate in agriculture, food processing, and manufacturing; industries that are particularly sensitive to changes in trade policy. The imposition of tariffs on imported goods, the added potential for retaliatory tariffs by foreign governments, or other similar restrictions on international trade could increase costs for domestic manufacturers and consumers alike, as well as reduce demand abroad for U.S. exports, and disrupt supply chains. Any prolonged trade tensions could negatively impact the broader economic environment in the Midwest where the Bank operates, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending, lower economic growth, and decreased demand for other banking products and services. If these factors lead to financial strain on our borrowers, we may experience increased credit risk, higher loan delinquencies, and a potential decline in loan demand.

Current report

As a result, our financial performance, including credit quality and loan growth, could be adversely affected by these policy changes. While we actively monitor these developments and work closely with our agricultural customers, there is no assurance that we can fully mitigate the risks posed by tariff initiatives or other trade-related disruptions. These factors could materially affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Previous report

Liquidity Risk

Previous report

Liquidity measures the ability to meet current and future cash flow needs as they become due. The liquidity of a financial institution reflects its ability to meet loan requests, to accommodate possible outflows in deposits, and to take advantage of interest rate market opportunities. The ability of a financial institution to meet its current financial obligations is a function of its balance sheet structure, its ability to liquidate assets, and its access to alternative sources of funds. The bank failures in 2023 exemplify the potentially catastrophic results of the unexpected inability of insured depository institutions to obtain needed liquidity to satisfy deposit withdrawal requests, including how quickly such requests can accelerate once uninsured depositors lose confidence in an institution’s ability to satisfy its obligations to depositors. We continually strive to ensure our funding needs are met by maintaining a level of liquidity through asset and liability management. If we become unable to obtain funds when needed, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Previous report

Interest Rate Risk with Respect to the Value of Our Securities Portfolio

Previous report

As a result of inflationary pressures and the resulting rapid increases in interest rates over the prior two fiscal years, the trading value of previously issued government and other fixed income securities has declined significantly. These securities make up a majority of the securities portfolio of most banks in the U.S., including the Company’s, resulting in unrealized losses embedded in the held-to-maturity portion of U.S. banks’ securities portfolios. While the Company does not currently intend to sell these securities, if the Company were required to sell such securities to meet liquidity needs, it may incur losses, which could impair the Company’s capital, financial condition, and results of operations and require the Company to raise additional capital on unfavorable terms, thereby negatively impacting its profitability. While the Company has taken actions to maximize its funding sources, there is no guarantee that such actions will be successful or sufficient in the event of sudden liquidity needs.

Previous report

Uninsured Deposit Risk

Previous report

Uninsured deposits based on FDIC coverage as a percentage of total deposits was 20.9% as of September 30, 2024, and as of the same date, total uninsured deposits (includes public deposits with protection over FDIC) was 10.5%. The use of the financial network products, such as the Certificate of Deposit Account Registry (CDARS) and an Insured Cash Sweep which makes FDIC coverage available to larger depositors, contributes to the low uninsured percentage. Uninsured deposits historically have been viewed by the FDIC as less stable than insured deposits. According to statements made by the FDIC staff and the leadership of the federal banking agencies, customers with larger uninsured deposit account balances often are small- and mid-sized businesses that rely upon deposit funds for payment of operational expenses and, as a result, are more likely to closely monitor the financial condition and performance of their depository institutions. As a result, in the event of financial distress, uninsured depositors historically have been more likely to withdraw their deposits. If a significant portion of our deposits were to be withdrawn within a short period of time such that additional sources of funding would be required to meet withdrawal demands, we may be unable to obtain funding at favorable terms, which may have an adverse effect on our net interest margin. Obtaining adequate funding to meet our deposit obligations may be more challenging during periods of elevated prevailing interest rates, such as the present, and our ability to attract depositors during a time of actual or perceived distress or instability in the marketplace may be limited. Further, interest rates paid for non-deposit borrowings generally exceed the interest rates paid on deposits, and this spread may be exacerbated by higher prevailing interest rates.

Previous report

Recent Events Impacting the Financial Services Industry

Previous report

A heightened likelihood of rate changes is impacting the financial services industry as institutions may be impacted by a mismatch of the amount of assets versus liabilities on the balance sheet immediately repricing. Adding to the possible rate change is the complication of the length and effect of an inverted yield curve. The first rate change will assess the validity of assumptions in the institutions’ asset liability models.

Previous report

The outcome of the upcoming political races has the potential to cause disruption within the industry. Many regulatory regulations are currently in a limbo status and whose enactment or enforcement may or may not become effective depending on the results of the elections in the fourth quarter 2024.

Previous report

Climate Change Risk

Previous report

There is an increasing concern over the risks of climate change and related environmental sustainability matters. The physical risks of climate change include discrete events, such as flooding and wildfires, and longer-term shifts in climate patterns, such as extreme heat, sea level rise, and more frequent and prolonged drought. Under medium or longer-term scenarios, such events, if uninterrupted or unaddressed, could disrupt our operations or those of our customers or third parties on which we rely, including through direct damage to assets and indirect impacts from supply chain disruption and market volatility. While the timing and severity of climate change may not be entirely predictable and our risk management processes may not be effective in mitigating climate risk exposure, we continue to build capabilities to identify, assess, and manage climate risks.

Previous report

While our primary markets have seemingly been minimally impacted by climate change to date, the increasing unpredictability of severe weather events, primarily droughts and flooding, could have a significant impact on our agricultural customers; loans to which comprise approximately 14.1% of the Bank’s total loan portfolio.

Previous report

Global Economic and Geopolitical Instability and Inflationary Risks

Previous report

Geopolitical conditions, terrorist attacks, military conflicts, natural disasters, severe weather, widespread health emergencies or pandemics, information or cybersecurity incidents (including intrusion into or degradation or unavailability of systems or technology by cyberattacks), operational incidents and other catastrophic events can have a material adverse effect on our business. Political and social conditions, including actions upending geopolitical stability (such as from tensions involving China and the U.S., as well as continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine), fiscal and monetary policies (including developments related to the U.S. federal debt ceiling, budgetary issues and government shutdowns), trade wars and tariffs, labor shortages, regional or domestic hostilities, economic sanctions and the prospect or occurrence of more widespread conflicts could also negatively affect our business, operations and partners, consumer and business spending, including consumer spending patterns and business investment, and demand for credit.

Previous report

While the stock market continues to remain robust through the third quarter of 2024, certain indicators suggest that there could be looming trouble in the national and global economies related to increased fiscal deficits and the need for additional borrowing by the U.S. government to fund both its operations and to service its existing debt. In addition, data supplied by the Federal Reserve continues to show a systematic decline in consumer confidence in the U.S. since the beginning of 2024. Some of the basis for the current consumer sentiment is related to pressure on home values, primarily in the sunbelt states, as well as increasing concern over job security. While personal consumption has remained relatively strong on a national basis through August of 2024, many economists warn that a significant reduction in consumer spending may become a factor going into fiscal year 2025.