Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund
For the period ended Dec 31, 2024. Filed Feb 26, 2025.
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FY2024 · Filed Feb 26, 2025
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Item 1A. RISK FACTORS
An investment in Shares involves a high degree of risk. Investors should consider carefully all of the risks described below, together with the other information contained in this Report and the Fund’s prospectus dated August 26, 2024 (the“Prospectus”), before making a decision to invest in Shares. If any of the following risks occur, the business, financial condition and results of operations of the Fund may be adversely affected.
Summary of Risk Factors
The Fund’s trading of futures contracts takes place in very volatile markets.
The Fund is subject to fees and expenses in the aggregate amount of approximately 0.76% per annum and will be successful only if its annual returns from futures trading, plus its annual Treasury Income, Money Market Income and T-Bill ETF Income, exceed such fees and expenses.
Market Risks
The Shares are designed to reflect as closely as possible the changes, positive or negative, in the level of the Index, over time, through the Fund’s portfolio of exchange-traded Index Contracts. The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the portfolio, less the liabilities (including estimated accrued but unpaid expenses) of the Fund. The price of the Index Commodities may fluctuate widely. Several factors may affect the prices of the Index Commodities, including, but not limited to:
Global supply and demand of each of the Index Commodities, which may be influenced by such factors as forward selling by the various commodities producers, purchases made by the commodities’ producers to unwind their hedge positions and production and cost levels in the major markets of each of the Index Commodities;
A significant change in investor interest, including as a result of online campaigns or other activities targeting investments in an Index Commodity;
Weather and other environmental conditions;
Acts of God;
War or acts of terrorism; and
Possible Illiquid Markets May Exacerbate Losses.
Hamas' attack against Israel in October 2023 and the ensuing conflict, have had, and may continue to have, an impact on certain commodities markets and commodity futures markets. While this impact has been particularly pronounced in energy markets (such as natural gas and oil), the conflict has also disrupted certain global shipping and trade routes, which may have wide ranging impacts across commodity markets. For example, the Houthi movement, which controls parts of Yemen, launched a number of attacks on marine vessels in the Red Sea. The Red Sea is an important maritime route for international trade. As a result of these disruptions, companies have re-routed vessels around the Cape of Good Hope rather than transiting through the Suez Canal and/or the Red Sea. While a ceasefire agreement has been reached, there is no guarantee that the parties will continue to comply with the terms of the agreement and the agreement does not mean the conflict will be resolved. The possibility of a prolonged conflict between Hamas and Israel, and the potential escalation and/or expansion of the conflict in the surrounding areas and the involvement of other nations in such conflict, could further destabilize the Middle East region and introduce new uncertainties in global commodities markets, including, but not limited to, energy markets.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, various countries, including the United States, Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Germany, France, and Japan, as well as NATO and the European Union, issued broad-ranging economic sanctions against Russia and Belarus. Russia may take additional countermeasures or retaliatory actions (including cyberattacks), which could exacerbate negative consequences on global financial markets. The duration of ongoing hostilities and corresponding sanctions and related events cannot be predicted. Impacts from the conflict and related events may result in increased volatility in the value of Index Commodities and may have an adverse effect on the performance of the Fund and value of the Shares.
Pandemics and Other Public Health Emergencies, Could Disrupt the Global Economy and Adversely Impact the Fund’s Performance.
The Fund competes with other financial vehicles, including mutual funds, ETFs and other investment companies, other index tracking commodity pools, actively traded commodity pools, hedge funds, traditional debt and equity securities issued by companies in the commodities industry, other securities backed by or linked to commodities, and direct investments in the underlying commodities or commodity futures contracts. Market and financial conditions, and other conditions beyond the Managing Owner’s control, may make it more attractive to invest in other financial vehicles or to invest in such commodities directly, which could limit the market for the Shares and therefore reduce the liquidity of the Shares.
Futures Risks
The Fund’s Returns from Futures Trading Will Be Affected by Market Conditions When Replacing Expiring Futures Contracts With New Futures Contracts on Index Commodities.
The Fund’s returns from futures trading are called excess return, which is the combined return based on the spot prices of the Index Commodities and the roll yield from trading Index Contracts. Market conditions at the time the Fund replaces expiring Index Contracts with new Index Contracts –i.e., when Index Contracts are “rolled” – will affect the Fund’s roll yield. Those market conditions are referred to as backwardation and contango, which will generally affect the Fund’s roll yield as set forth below:
Super contango exists when the futures contracts for the month next to occur (e.g., the April 2025 futures contract available in March 2025) trade significantly lower than futures contracts with delivery in later months. Super contango typically occurs when the inventory space available to store the physical commodity has significantly decreased as a result of excess supply, meaning that a futures contract’s cost of carry (e.g., the cost of storing a physical commodity) has increased. The effects of rolling in a super contangoed market generally are more exaggerated than rolling in a contangoed market. Should an Index Contract experience super contango, the drag on returns may be exacerbated and ripple effects may impact the performance of futures contracts with later delivery months.
Index Risks
Tracking the Index requires trading of the Fund’s portfolio with a view to tracking the Index over time and is dependent upon the skills of the Managing Owner and its trading principals, among other factors. It is possible that the Fund’s performance may not fully replicate the changes in levels of the Index due to disruptions in the markets for the relevant Index Commodities, the imposition of position limits, or due to other extraordinary circumstances.
The Managing Owner may determine to invest in other futures contracts if at any time it is impractical, including in scenarios wherein the futures market for an Index Contract is thinly traded, or inefficient to gain full or partial exposure to an Index Commodity through the use of Index Contracts. These other futures contracts may or may not be based on an Index Commodity. When they are not, the Managing Owner may seek to select futures contracts that it reasonably believes tend to exhibit trading prices that correlate with an Index Contract.
As the Fund approaches or reaches position limits with respect to an Index Commodity, the Fund may commence investing in Index Contracts that reference other Index Commodities. In those circumstances, the Fund may also trade in futures contracts based on commodities other than Index Commodities that the Managing Owner reasonably believes tend to exhibit trading prices that correlate with an Index Contract.
There can be no guarantee that the Index or the underlying methodology is free from error. It is also possible that third parties may seek to manipulate the value of the Index or the Index Commodities which, if successful, would be likely to have an adverse effect on the Fund’s performance.
The Fund is not actively managed on the basis of judgments relating to economic, financial and market conditions with a view to obtaining positive results under all market conditions. Instead, the Managing Owner seeks to cause the NAV to track the performance of the Index during periods in which the Index is flat or declining as well as when the Index is rising. Therefore, under normal market conditions, if positions in any one or more of the Index Commodities are declining in value, the Fund will not close out such positions, except in connection with a change in the composition or weighting of the Index.
Fewer Representative Commodities May Result in Greater Index Volatility.
The Index Commodities are Gold and Silver. Other commodity indexes may contain a larger number of commodities than the Index. Accordingly, increased volatility in a single Index Commodity is expected to have a greater impact on the Index’s overall volatility than would likely be the case with increased volatility in a single commodity within a broader index. Because the Fund tracks the performance of the Index, your investment in the Fund will be exposed to the relatively greater impact on the Index of volatility in a single Index Commodity.
Regulatory Risks
The Index is composed of two Index Commodities, each of which is subject to position limits imposed by the CFTC (pursuant to the phased-in compliance schedule of the CFTC’s recent rulemaking) and/or the rules of futures exchanges on which Index Contracts are traded. The CFTC amended its position limits rules in October 2020. Pursuant to the amended rules, federal position limits apply to 25 physical delivery commodity futures contracts and options thereon, as well as to swaps that are economically equivalent to such contracts and to futures and options thereon that are directly or indirectly linked to the price of such contracts or to the same commodity underlying such contracts (e.g., cash-settled look-a-like futures). Under the amended framework, position limits (i) for 25 core referenced futures contracts (including corn, oats, wheat, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton, live cattle, rough rice, cocoa, coffee, frozen orange juice concentrate, sugar, gold, silver, copper, platinum, palladium, natural gas, crude oil, heating oil, and RBOB gasoline) are determined by the CFTC and (ii) for all other commodities are determined by the futures exchanges.
Position Aggregation. In general, a trader is required by CFTC or exchange rules, as applicable, to aggregate all positions in accounts as to which the trader has 10% or greater ownership or control. CFTC and exchange rules, as applicable, provide exemptions from this requirement. For example, a trader is not required to aggregate positions in multiple accounts that it owns or controls if that trader is able to satisfy the requirements of an exemption from aggregation of those accounts.
The Commodity Exchange Act requires an FCM to segregate all funds received from customers from such FCM’s proprietary assets. If the Commodity Broker fails to segregate customer assets as required, the assets of the Fund might not be fully protected in the event of the Commodity Broker’s distress, impairment or bankruptcy. Furthermore, in the event of the Commodity Broker’s distress, impairment or bankruptcy, the Fund could be delayed in recovering Fund assets, limited to recovering apro rata share of all available funds segregated on behalf of the Commodity Broker’s combined customer accounts or the Fund may not recover any assets at all, even though certain property specifically traceable to the Fund was held by the Commodity Broker.
Tax Risks
General Risks
An Insolvency Resulting from Another Series of the Trust or the Trust Itself May Have a Material Adverse Effect on the Fund.
The Fund is a series of a Delaware statutory trust. Pursuant to Delaware law, the organization of the Trust provides that the assets and liabilities of the Fund are separate from the assets and liabilities of the other series of the Trust, as well as the larger Trust itself. Though such organization may, under state law, protect the assets of the Fund in an insolvency action brought by the creditors of another series of the Trust, this may be insufficient to protect the assets of the Fund from such creditors in an insolvency action in federal court, or in a court in a foreign jurisdiction. Accordingly, an insolvency resulting from another series of the Trust or the Trust itself may have a material adverse effect on the Fund.
The Fund pays fees and expenses regardless of its investment performance. Such fees and expenses include asset-based fees of 0.75% per annum. Additional charges include brokerage fees of approximately 0.01% per annum in the aggregate and selling commissions. Selling commissions are not included in the Fund’s breakeven calculation. The sum of the Fund’s Treasury Income, Money Market Income and/or T-Bill ETF Income may not exceed its fees and expenses. If such income does not exceed its fees and expenses, in order to break even, the Fund’s futures trading activity will need to have a favorable performance that exceeds the difference between the sum of the Fund’s Treasury Income, Money Market Income and/or T-Bill ETF Income and its fees and expenses. If the Fund’s futures trading performance is not sufficiently favorable, the Fund’s expenses could deplete its assets over time. In such a scenario, the value of your Shares will decrease.
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