Conifer Holdings Inc

Current report

Our business is subject to risks and events that, if they occur, could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations and the trading price of our securities. During the nine months ended September 30, 2024, except as set forth below, our risk factors have not changed materially from those risk factors previously disclosed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 (the “2023 10-K”). You should carefully consider the risk factors discussed in Part I, “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in our 2023 10-K. The risks described below and in our 2023 10-K are not the only risks facing us. Additional risks and uncertainties not currently known to us or that we currently deem to be immaterial also may materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and/or operating results.

Current report

Operational Risks

Current report

Our actual incurred losses may be greater than our loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Current report

Insurance companies’ financial condition and results of operations depend upon their ability to accurately assess the potential losses and loss adjustment expenses under the terms of the insurance policies they underwrite. Reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability. Rather, reserves represent an estimate of what the expected ultimate settlement and administration of claims will cost, and the ultimate liability may be greater or less than the current estimate. In the insurance industry, there is always the risk that reserves may prove inadequate as it is possible for insurance companies to underestimate the cost of claims. There has been considerable adverse development reported by the Company in recent years.

Current report

We base our estimates on our assessment of known facts and circumstances, as well as estimates of future trends in claim severity, claim frequency, judicial theories of liability and other factors. These variables are affected by both internal and external events that could increase our exposure to losses, including changes in actuarial projections, claims handling procedures, inflation, severe weather, climate change, economic and judicial trends, and legislative changes. We continually monitor reserves using new information on reported claims and a variety of statistical techniques to update our current estimate. Our estimates could prove to be inadequate, and this underestimation could have a material adverse effect on our financial strength.

Current report

The uncertainties we encounter in establishing our loss reserves include:

Current report

For the majority of our policies, we are obligated to pay any covered loss that occurs while the policy is in force. Accordingly, claims may be reported and develop many years after a policy has lapsed;

Current report

Even when a claim is received, it may take considerable time to fully appreciate the extent of the covered loss suffered by the insured and, consequently, estimates of loss associated with specific claims can increase over time;

Current report

New theories of liability are enforced retroactively from time to time by courts;

Current report

Volatility in the financial markets, economic events, weather events and other external factors may result in an increase in the number of claims and the severity of the claims reported. In addition, elevated inflationary conditions would, among other things, drive loss costs to increase;

Current report

When we enter new lines of business, or encounter new theories of claims liability, we may encounter an increase in claims frequency and greater claims handling costs than we had anticipated; and

Current report

Estimation of IBNR losses is a complex and inherently uncertain process which involves a considerable degree of judgment and expertise, which adds to the overall difficulty of estimating loss reserves.

Current report

If any of our insurance reserves should prove to be inadequate for the reasons discussed above, or for any other reason, we will be required to increase reserves, resulting in a reduction in our net income and shareholders’ equity in the period in which the deficiency is identified. Such adverse development can result in the unplanned need for additional capital, which may need to be obtained through the sale of assets or additional issuance of common stock or preferred stock which could dilute current shareholder value.

Current report

Following the sale of Conifer Insurance Services (“CIS”), we distribute our insurance products through only two agents. There can be no assurance that such relationships will continue, or if they do continue, that the relationship will be on favorable terms to us.

Current report

Our distribution model has changed drastically since the sale of CIS on August 30, 2024. Our direct relationships with commercial retail and third party wholesale agencies are owned by CIS and our direct relationships with homeowners retail and third party wholesale agencies are owned by Sycamore Specialty Underwriters (“SSU”). Upon the sale of CIS and the sale of our 50% ownership interest in SSU on August 30, 2024, we no longer have any control or ability to direct relationships with the retail or third party wholesale agencies.

Current report

In addition, we already only receive a small amount of commercial business from CIS, and expect any remaining business in CIS to ultimately be transferred to another insurer. Our current plan is to write substantially only homeowners’ insurance going forward, and we will be relying entirely on just one agent for that premium channel. CIS and SSU have the full independent right to move their business to other insurers. They are not obligated to sell or promote our products and may sell or promote competitors’ insurance products in addition to our products.

Current report

Some of our competitors have financial strength ratings whereas we withdrew our participation from financial strength rating agencies, offer a larger variety of products, set lower prices for insurance coverage and/or offer higher commissions than we do. Therefore, even if SSU would like to use our Insurance Company Subsidiaries, SSU may not be able to continue to attract and retain independent agents to sell our insurance products. Even if the relationships do continue, they may not be on terms that are profitable for us. The termination of a relationship with one or more significant agents could result in lower premium revenue and could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations or business prospects.

Current report

We will no longer have non risk-bearing agency revenue and must rely almost entirely on insurance premium revenue generated from our Insurance Company Subsidiaries.

Current report

With the Sale of CIS, our only significant source of revenues will be from earned premiums in our Insurance Company Subsidiaries. This is at a time when we are significantly restricted by the amount of premiums we can write due to a lack of sufficient regulatory capital in our Insurance Company Subsidiaries (see Legal and Regulatory Risks). Our Insurance Company Subsidiaries are no longer rated by A.M. Best or Kroll (see Rating Agency Risks) which may impact their ability to sustain premium volume. With limited options for generating other revenue, there is a risk that insufficient premium volume will have an adverse impact on underwriting profits and our financial condition and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected.

Current report

We are now relying entirely on agency billed premiums which subjects us to their credit risk.

Current report

As of August 30, 2024, all of the business that we write is produced by agents who handle all of the billings and collections. Accordingly, all of our premiums are first collected directly by the agents and forwarded to our Insurance Company Subsidiaries. In certain jurisdictions, when the insured pays its policy premium to these agents for payment on behalf of our Insurance Company Subsidiaries, the premiums might be considered to have been paid under applicable insurance laws and regulations. Accordingly, the insured would no longer be liable to us for those amounts, whether or not we have actually received the premiums from that agent. Consequently, we assume a degree of credit risk associated with agents. There may be instances where agents collect premiums but do not remit them to us and we may be required to provide the coverage set forth in the policy despite the absence of premiums. If we are unable to collect premiums from agents, underwriting profits may decline and our financial condition and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected.

Current report

Significant staff reduction and heavy reliance on third party vendors increases operational risks and may adversely impact our results of operations, reporting abilities and reputation.

Current report

Approximately 67 of our 77 employees conveyed with the sale of CIS, including the entire underwriting, claims, and information technology teams. We now rely on services agreements for CIS, as a third party vendor, to manage our claims, policy issuance and collections, as well as maintaining the policy management and claims systems. Undergoing such a large change in operations and staff reduction could generate skill and resource limitations within the remaining internal staff. This could result in more significant operational errors and a diminished control environment.

Current report

We are exposed to many types of operational risk, including the risk of fraud by employees and outsiders, clerical and recordkeeping which can be heightened when third party vendors are heavily relied upon. Third parties with whom we do business, including vendors that provide services or security solutions for our operations, could be sources of operational and information security risk to us, including from breakdowns, failures, or capacity constraints of their own systems or employees. Any of these occurrences could diminish our ability to operate our business, or cause financial loss, potential liability to insureds, inability to secure insurance, reputational damage or regulatory intervention, which could materially adversely affect us.

Current report

An increased inflation rate or a period of sustained inflation may adversely impact our results of operations.

Current report

Inflation may negatively impact both interest rates and the amount we pay to settle claims. We take into account the effects of inflation when we set our prices; however, if we are unsuccessful in adequately accounting for inflation through our pricing and underwriting modifications, our results of operations may be negatively impacted. We may find that increasing our prices to address inflation results in a loss of business if the competition does not increase their prices commensurately. We also consider inflation when we estimate reserves for unpaid losses and LAE, because of the increase on our claims costs that is caused by inflation. While we attempt to mitigate the effects of inflation, the actual effects of inflation on results of operations are not known until claims are ultimately settled. In addition to general price inflation, we are also exposed to the upward trend in the judicial awards for damages.

Current report

Severe weather conditions and other catastrophes are inherently unpredictable and may have a material adverse effect on our financial results and financial condition.

Current report

Our insurance operations expose us to claims arising from unpredictable catastrophe events, such as earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, windstorms, floods and other severe events. We have incurred losses from catastrophe events in our history and we may incur significant losses from future catastrophe events. Significant losses from severe weather is not limited to catastrophes. A high frequency of typical convective storm activity over the course of a summer can generate just as many losses as one hurricane. The actual occurrence, frequency and magnitude of such events are uncertain. Over the past several years, changing weather patterns and climatic conditions, such as global warming, have added to the unpredictability and frequency of natural disasters in certain parts of the world, including the markets in which we operate. Climate change may increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. This effect has led to conditions in the ocean and atmosphere, including warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear that increase hurricane activity. Hurricane activity typically increases between June and November of each year, though the actual occurrence and magnitude of such events is uncertain. The occurrence of a natural disaster or other catastrophe loss could materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

Current report

The extent of losses from catastrophes is a function of both the frequency and severity of the insured events and the total amount of insured exposure in the areas affected. The frequency and severity of catastrophes are inherently unpredictable and the occurrence of one catastrophe does not make the occurrence of another catastrophe more or less likely. Increases in the replacement cost of insured property due to higher material and labor costs, increases in concentrations of insured property, the effects of inflation, and changes in cyclical weather patterns may increase the severity of claims from catastrophe events in the future. Claims from catastrophe events could reduce our earnings and cause substantial volatility in our results of operations for any fiscal quarter or year, which could materially adversely affect our financial condition, possibly to the extent of eliminating our total stockholders’ equity. Our ability to underwrite new insurance policies could also be materially adversely impacted as a result of corresponding reductions in our capital. In addition, a natural disaster could materially impact the financial condition of our policyholders, resulting in loss of premiums.

Current report

We may also find reinsurance costs to go up or general reinsurance capacity to be negatively affected following a single large catastrophe or multiple smaller events. Our inability to obtain reinsurance coverage at reasonable rates and in amounts adequate to mitigate the risks associated with severe weather conditions and other catastrophes could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.

Current report

Catastrophe models may not accurately predict future losses.

Current report

Along with other insurers in the industry, we use models developed by third-party vendors in assessing our exposure to catastrophe losses that assume various conditions and probability scenarios. However, these models do not necessarily accurately predict future losses or accurately measure losses currently incurred. Catastrophe models, which have been evolving since the early 1990s, use historical information about various catastrophes and detailed information about our business. While we use this information in connection with our pricing and risk management activities, there are limitations with respect to their usefulness in predicting losses in any reporting period. Examples of these limitations are significant variations in estimates between models and modelers and material increases and decreases in model results due to changes and refinements of the underlying data elements and assumptions. Such limitations lead to questionable predictive capability and post-event measurements that have not been well understood or proven to be sufficiently reliable. In addition, the models are not necessarily reflective of company or state-specific policy language, demand surge for labor and materials or loss settlement expenses, all of which are subject to wide variation by catastrophe. Because the occurrence and severity of catastrophes are inherently unpredictable and may vary significantly from year to year, historical results of operations may not be indicative of future results of operations.

Current report

Changes in our management structure and in senior leadership could affect our business and financial results.

Current report

As of August 30, 2024, Brian Roney, President, succeeded Nicholas Petcoff as our chief executive officer. Leadership transitions can be difficult to manage and may cause disruptions to our operations. A leadership transition may also increase the likelihood of turnover among our employees and result in changes in our business strategy, which may create uncertainty and negatively impact our ability to execute our business strategy quickly and effectively. Leadership transitions may also impact our relationships with customers and other market participants, and create uncertainty among investors, employees, and others concerning our future direction and performance. Any significant disruption, uncertainty or change in business strategy could adversely affect our business, operating results and financial condition.

Current report

Litigation and legal proceedings against our Insurance Company Subsidiaries could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and/or results of operations.

Current report

As an insurance holding company, our Insurance Company Subsidiaries are named as defendants in various legal actions in the ordinary course of business. We believe that the outcome of presently pending matters, individually and in the aggregate, will not have a material adverse effect on our consolidated financial position, operating results or liquidity. However, the outcomes of lawsuits cannot be predicted and, if determined adversely, could require us to pay significant damage amounts or to change aspects of our operations, which could have a material adverse effect on our financial results. In addition, a significant volume of customer complaints or litigation could adversely affect our brand and reputation, regardless of whether such allegations are valid or whether we are liable. Accordingly, we cannot predict with any certainty whether we will be involved in such litigation in the future or what impact such litigation would have on our business.

Current report

Our failure to accurately and timely pay claims could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Current report

We must accurately and timely evaluate and pay claims that are made under our policies. Many factors affect our ability to pay claims accurately and timely, including the training and experience of our claims representatives, our claims organization’s culture, our ability to develop or select and implement appropriate procedures and systems to support our claims functions and other factors. Our failure to pay claims accurately and timely could lead to regulatory and administrative actions or material litigation, undermine our reputation in the marketplace and materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

Current report

Our geographic concentration ties our performance to the business, economic, natural perils, man-made perils, catastrophes, severe weather and regulatory conditions within our most concentrated region.

Current report

Our revenues and profitability are subject to the prevailing regulatory, legal, economic, political, demographic, competitive, weather and other conditions in the principal states in which we do business. Changes in any of these conditions could make it less attractive for us to do business in such states and would have a more pronounced effect on us compared to companies that are more geographically diversified. In addition, our exposure to severe losses from localized perils, such as earthquakes, hurricanes, tropical storms, tornadoes, wind, ice storms, hail, fires, terrorism, riots and explosions, is increased in those areas where we have written significant numbers of insurance policies.

Previous report

There were no material changes to the risk factors disclosed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K (“Item 1A Risk Factors”) filed with the SEC on April 1, 2024.