MGIC INVESTMENT CORP

The accounting estimate described below requires significant judgments and estimates in the preparation of our consolidated financial statements.

The estimation of case loss reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires significant judgement by management. Changes to our estimates could result in a material impact to our consolidated results and financial position, even in a stable economic environment.

Case Reserves

Case reserves are established for estimated insurance losses when notices of delinquency on insured mortgage loans are received. Such loans are referred to as being in our delinquency inventory. For reporting purposes, we consider a loan delinquent when it is two or more payments past due and has not become current or resulted in a claim payment. Although the accounting standard, ASC 944, regarding accounting and reporting by insurance entities specifically excluded mortgage insurance from its guidance relating to loss reserves, we establish loss reserves using the general principles contained in the insurance standard. However, consistent with industry standards for mortgage insurers, we do not establish case loss reserves for future claims on insured loans which are not currently delinquent.

We establish reserves using estimated claim rates and claim severities in estimating the ultimate loss.

The estimated claim rates and claim severities are used to determine the amount we estimate will actually be paid on the delinquent loans as of the reserve date. If a policy is rescinded we do not expect that it will result in a claim payment and thus the rescission generally reduces the historical claim rate used in establishing reserves. In addition, if a loan cures its delinquency, including through a successful loan modification, the cure reduces the historical claim rate used in establishing reserves. To establish reserves, we utilize a reserving model that continually incorporates historical data into the estimated claim rate. The model also incorporates an estimate for severity. The severity is estimated using the historical percentage of our claims paid compared to our loan exposures, as well as the RIF of the loans currently in default. We do not utilize an explicit rescission rate in our reserving methodology, but rather our reserving methodology incorporates the effects rescission activity has had on our historical claim rate and claim severities. We review recent trends in the claim rate, claim severity, levels of defaults by geography and average loan exposure. As a result, the process to determine reserves does not include quantitative ranges of outcomes that are reasonably likely to occur.

The claim rates and claim severities are affected by external events, including actual economic conditions such as changes in unemployment rates, interest rates or housing values, pandemics and natural disasters. Our estimation process does not include a correlation between claim rates and claim severities to projected economic conditions such as changes in unemployment rates, interest rates or housing values. Our experience is that analysis of that nature would not produce reliable results as the change in one economic condition cannot be isolated to determine its specific effect on our ultimate paid losses because each economic condition is also influenced by other economic conditions. Additionally, the changes and interactions of these economic conditions are not likely homogeneous throughout the regions in which we conduct business. Each economic condition influences our ultimate paid losses differently, even if apparently similar in nature. Furthermore, changes in economic conditions may not necessarily be reflected in our loss development in the quarter or year in which the changes occur. Actual claim results generally lag changes in economic conditions by at least nine to twelve months.

Our estimate of loss reserves is sensitive to changes in claim rate and claim severity; it is possible that even a relatively small change in our estimated claim rate or claim severity could have a material impact on reserves and, correspondingly, on our consolidated results of operations even in a stable economic environment. For example, as of December 31, 2024, assuming all other factors remain constant, a $1,000 increase/decrease in the average claim severity reserve factor would change the reserve amount by approximately +/- $7 million. A one percentage point increase/decrease in the average claim rate reserve factor would change the reserve amount by approximately +/- $18 million.

Historically, it has not been uncommon for us to experience variability in the development of the loss reserves through the end of the following year at this level or higher, as shown by the historical development of our loss reserves in the table below:

(1)A negative number for a prior year indicates a redundancy of loss reserves. A positive number for a prior year indicates a deficiency of loss reserves.

See Note 8 – “Loss Reserves” to our consolidated financial statements for a discussion of recent loss development.