abrdn Gold ETF Trust

In this annual report, the term “ounces” refers to fine troy ounces.

Market Participants

The participants in the world gold market may be classified in the following sectors: the mining and producer sector, the banking sector, the official sector, the investment sector, and the manufacturing sector. A brief description of each follows.

Mining and Producer Sector

This group includes mining companies that specialize in gold and silver production, mining companies that produce gold as a by-product of other production (such as a copper or silver producer), scrap merchants and recyclers.

Banking Sector

Gold bullion banks provide a variety of services to the gold market and its participants, thereby facilitating interactions between other parties. Services provided by the gold bullion banking community include traditional banking products as well as mine financing, physical gold purchases and sales, hedging and risk management, inventory management for industrial users and consumers, and gold deposit and loan instruments.

The Official Sector

The official sector encompasses the activities of the various central banking operations of gold-holding countries. From 2009 to 2019, the European Central Bank and other central banks of Europe operated under a series of four Central Bank Gold Agreements (“CBGA”). The CBGA limited the amount of gold that these banks were allowed to sell for the duration of each agreement, helping to stabilize the gold market. The CBGA had the desired effect, and the gold market has become more balanced, eliminating the need for a formal agreement going forward. According to statistics provided by the World Gold Council, as of Q4 2023, central banks are estimated to hold approximately 36,213 tonnes (“tonne” refers to one metric tonne, which is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,151 troy ounces) of gold reserves, or approximately 17% of existing above-ground stocks.

The Investment Sector

This sector includes the investment and trading activities of both professional and private investors and speculators. These participants range from large hedge and mutual funds to day-traders on futures exchanges, and retail-level coin collectors.

The Manufacturing Sector

The fabrication and manufacturing sector represents all the commercial and industrial users of gold for whom gold is a daily part of their business. The jewelry industry is a large user of gold. Other industrial users of gold include the electronics and dental industries.

World Gold Supply and Demand 2014-2023 (in tonnes)

The following table sets forth a summary of the world gold supply and demand for the period from 2014 to 2023 and is based on information reported by the World Gold Council.

Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council

*This number captures demand in the OTC market (for which data is not readily available), changes to inventories on commodity exchanges, any unobserved changes in fabrication inventories and any statistical residual. It is the difference between total supply and gold demand.

The following are some of the main characteristics of the gold market illustrated by the table:

One factor which separates gold from other precious metals is that there are large above-ground stocks which can be quickly mobilized. As a result of gold’s liquidity, gold often acts more like a currency than a commodity.

Over the past ten years, (new) mine production of gold has experienced a modest rise of an average of 1.41% per annum. Of the three sources of supply, mine production accounted for 73.6% in 2023. Recycled gold volumes have ranged from 1,067 tonnes to 1,293 tonnes over the past 10 years.

On the demand side, jewelry is clearly the greatest source of demand. Industrial demand has fluctuated between 6.7% and 8.4% of total demand over the past 10 years. Exchange traded product inventory build had seen strong growth through 2012, followed by outflows in 2013 to 2015 as the price of gold fell by a cumulative 30% between 2013 and 2015. Exchange traded product inventory build has been positive each year from 2016 to 2020, but experienced net outflows in 2021 to 2023. During the 2013 price crash, retail coin and bar demand rose to a 10-year high as retail investors, especially from China, were enticed by the falling prices. Retail coin demand had tapered off into 2019 but has averaged 9.25% from 2020 to 2023. Demand from Central Banks and other institutions fluctuated between 8.8% and 14.8% from 2013 to 2019, before reaching a low of 6.9% in 2020. However, that figure has increased in each of the last three years, reaching a high of 23.4% in 2023.

Historical Chart of the Price of Gold

The price of gold is volatile and fluctuations are expected to have a direct impact on the value of the Shares. However, movements in the price of gold in the past are not a reliable indicator of future movements. Movements may be influenced by various factors, including announcements from central banks regarding a country’s reserve gold holdings, agreements among central banks, political uncertainties around the world, and economic concerns.

The following chart illustrates the movements in the price of an ounce of gold in U.S. Dollars from December 31, 2014 to December 31, 2024:

Source: Bloomberg, abrdn. Chart data from 12/31/2014 to 12/31/2024. Spot Gold Price = GOLDLNPM Index.

The following is a discussion of the movements in the price of gold illustrated by the table:

The price of gold tends to rise during periods of low real interest rates and high monetary expansion, as they are often associated with currency debasement and systemic financial failures. The price of gold peaked at $1,943.20 per ounce in January 2021 as the uncertainties regarding the pandemic drove prices higher. 2021 proved to be a volatile year for gold as major market events and continued pandemic uncertainty, coupled with new variants, allowed gold to remain in the investment picture during the year. Additionally, the trends of 3 years of investor outflows in global ETFs and net negative investor sentiment in gold futures positioning reversed in 2016 and continued through 2021. Continued low real interest rates, tepid economic growth, and concerns regarding the recovery of the pandemic were key tailwinds for gold that sparked a return of investor interest. 2022 proved to be another volatile year for gold as the price climbed as high as $2,039.05 per ounce in the weeks following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve coupled and a strengthening of the US Dollar saw ETF holders liquidate as the price of gold dropped as low as $1,628.75 per ounce on November 3, 2022. However, increased demand from central banks, along with the weakening of the U.S. Dollar, sparked a fourth quarter rally that saw the price of gold climb to $1,813.75 per ounce to close 2022.

Similarly in 2023, economic and geopolitical factors continued to drive volatility in the price of gold over the course of the year. While the central bank demand that sparked a fourth quarter rally remained strong throughout the year, a weaker US Dollar and a drop in US 10-Year Treasury Yields caused the price of gold to reach $1,932.45 per ounce on January 26, 2023. However, the disappointing Chinese economic recovery drove the price as low as $1,810.95 per ounce on February 24, 2023, before the US banking crisis increased the likelihood of US policy rate cuts and drove the spot price as high as $2,048.45 per ounce on April 13, 2023 as investors turned to gold in anticipation of lower interest rates. However, the subsequent interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in May contributed to the price of gold falling as low as $1,899.60 per ounce on June 29th, 2023. The price of gold continued to fluctuate throughout the third quarter as a weaker dollar and central bank purchasing drove the spot price back up to $1,976.10 per ounce on July 20, 2023, however the US Federal Reserve’s final interest rate hike of the year on July 26 increased the probability of a policy rate mistake given mixed economic news leading the price to close as low as $1,870.50 per ounce on September 29, 2023. The spot price of gold continued to fall at the start of the fourth quarter, reaching as low as $1,818.95 per ounce on October 4, 2023, before the US Treasury shifted issuance to short duration bonds, lowering 10-year yields. While treasury market yields moved lower, removing the risk of excessive policy rate tightening, tensions in the Middle East increased with the attacks by Hamas on Israeli targets and civilians escalating the ongoing conflict between the two entities. Subsequently, the spot price of gold climbed as high as $1,997.60 per ounce on October 30, 2023. The spot price of gold gave back some of its gains over the first half of November before speculation of potential interest rate cuts in the US and Chinese economic stimulus drove the spot price of gold to an all-time high of $2,078.40 per ounce on December 28, 2023.

In 2024, the spot price of gold was relatively flat to start the year as metals investors focused on hopes of economic stimulus out of China making a meaningful rise in demand in more cyclically exposed metals like copper and silver. This led to a continuation of the sharp reduction in gold owned by ETF investors into March, which moderated into June as it became clear the U.S Federal Reserve was going to need to cut interest rates in the Autumn. From July to October these investors added to positions helping support gold prices as central bank purchases continued albeit without the Peoples Bank of China which halted purchases between June and October. The primary motivator for central bank purchases of gold are as a foreign exchange reserves diversifier away from U.S Dollars and Treasuries at the margin. The Council of Foreign Relations notes a primary risk to emerging market economies comes from sanctions, tariffs and U.S. Dollar trading system bans on behest of western economies. The results of the U.S. election raise the prospects of sanctions, and tariffs and thus the motivation to continue reserve diversification with gold purchases.