JPMORGAN CHASE & CO

Market risk is the risk associated with the effect of changes in market factors such as interest and foreign exchange rates, equity and commodity prices, credit spreads or implied volatilities, on the value of assets and liabilities held for both the short and long term. Refer to Market Risk Management on pages 133-142 of JPMorganChase’s 2025 Form 10-K for a discussion of the Firm’s Market Risk Management organization, market risk measurement, risk monitoring and control, and predominant business activities that give rise to market risk.

Models used to measure market risk are inherently imprecise and are limited in their ability to measure certain risks or to predict losses. This imprecision may be heightened when sudden or severe shifts in market conditions occur. For additional discussion on model uncertainty refer to Estimations and Model Risk Management on page 153 of JPMorganChase’s 2025 Form 10-K.

Market Risk Management periodically reviews the Firm’s existing market risk measures to identify opportunities for enhancement, and to the extent appropriate, will calibrate those measures accordingly over time.

Value-at-risk

JPMorganChase utilizes value-at-risk (“VaR”), a statistical risk measure, to estimate the potential loss from adverse market moves in the current market environment. The Firm has a single VaR framework used as a basis for calculating Risk Management VaR and Regulatory VaR.

The Firm’s Risk Management VaR is calculated assuming a one-day holding period and an expected tail-loss methodology which approximates a 95% confidence level. For risk management purposes, the Firm believes this methodology provides a daily measure of risk that is closely aligned to risk management decisions made by the LOBs and Corporate and, along with other market risk measures, provides the appropriate information needed to respond to risk events. The Firm calculates separately a daily aggregated VaR in accordance with regulatory rules (“Regulatory VaR”), which is used to derive the Firm’s regulatory VaR-based capital requirements under Basel III.

The Firm’s VaR model calculations are periodically evaluated and enhanced in response to changes in the composition of the Firm’s portfolios, changes in market conditions, improvements in the Firm’s modeling techniques and measurements, and other factors. Such changes may affect historical comparisons of VaR results. Refer to Estimations and Model Risk Management on page 153 of JPMorganChase’s 2025 Form 10-K for information regarding model reviews and approvals.

Refer to page 135 of JPMorganChase’s 2025 Form 10-K for further information regarding VaR, including its inherent limitations, and the key differences between Risk Management VaR and Regulatory VaR. Refer to JPMorganChase’s Basel III Pillar 3 Regulatory Capital Disclosures reports, which are available on the Firm’s website, for additional information on Regulatory VaR and the other components of market risk regulatory capital for the Firm (e.g., VaR-based measure, stressed VaR-based measure and the respective backtesting). Refer to Other risk measures on pages 139–140 of JPMorganChase’s 2025 Form 10-K for further information regarding nonstatistical market risk measures used by the Firm.

The table below shows the results of the Firm’s Risk Management VaR measure using a 95% confidence level. VaR can vary significantly as positions change, market volatility fluctuates, and diversification benefits change.

(a)Divers ification benefit represents the difference between the portfolio VaR and the sum of its individual components. This reflects the non-additive nature of VaR due to imperfect correlation across LOBs, Corporate, and risk types. For maximum and minimum VaR, diversification benefit is not meaningful as the maximum and minimum VaR for each portfolio may have occurred on different trading days than the components.

(b)Includes the derivative CVA, hedges of the CVA and credit protection purchased against certain retained loans and lending-related commitments, which are reported in principal transactions revenue. This VaR does not include the retained loan portfolio, which is not reported at fair value.

(c)Includes credit protection purchased against certain retained loans and lending-related commitments. This VaR does not include the retained loan portfolio, which is not reported at fair value.

(d)In the first quarter of 2025, the elevated average and maximum VaR was due to a client-driven equity position that has since matured.

Effective April 1, 2025, the Firm refined the historical proxy time series inputs to one of its VaR models to more appropriately reflect the risk exposure from certain securitization warehousing loan positions. If this refined time series was effective at the beginning of the quarter presented, the average Total VaR and each of the components would have been lower by the amounts reported in the following table:

Quarter over quarter results

Average Total VaR for the three months ended March 31, 2026 increased by $2 million, when compared with December 31, 2025, driven by increases in the foreign exchange and fixed income risk types, predominantly offset by decreases in the commodities risk type, primarily associated with bullion.

Year over year results

Average total VaR for the three months ended March 31, 2026 decreased by $13 million compared with the same period in the prior year. Adjusted for the aforementioned refinement, average total VaR decreased by $8 million, driven by reduced exposure in the equities risk type and decreases in the commodities risk type associated with bullion, partially offset by increases in the fixed income risk type.

The following graph presents daily Risk Management VaR for the five trailing quarters. The movements in the first quarter of 2025 were due to a client-driven equity position that has since matured.

Daily Risk Management VaR

VaR backtesting

The Firm performs daily VaR model backtesting, which compares the daily Risk Management VaR results with the daily gains and losses that are utilized for VaR backtesting purposes. The gains and losses depicted in the chart below do not reflect the Firm’s reported revenue as they exclude certain components of total net revenue, such as those associated with the execution of new transactions (i.e., intraday client-driven trading and intraday risk management activities), fees, commissions, other valuation adjustments and net interest income. These excluded components of total net revenue may more than offset the backtesting gain or loss on a particular day. The definition of backtesting gains and losses above is consistent with the requirements for backtesting under Basel III capital rules.

A backtesting exception occurs when the daily backtesting loss exceeds the daily Risk Management VaR for the prior day. Under the Firm’s Risk Management VaR methodology, assuming current changes in market values are consistent with the historical changes used in the simulation, the Firm would expect to incur VaR backtesting exceptions five times every 100 trading days on average. The number of VaR backtesting exceptions observed can differ from the statistically expected number of backtesting exceptions if the current level of market volatility is materially different from the level of market volatility during the 12 months of historical data used in the VaR calculation.

For the 12 months ended March 31, 2026, the Firm posted backtesting gains on 179 of the 259 days, and observed 15 VaR backtesting exceptions. For the three months ended March 31, 2026, the Firm posted backtesting gains on 47 of the 63 days, and observed six VaR backtesting exceptions.

The following chart presents the distribution of Firmwide daily backtesting gains and losses for the trailing 12 months and three months ended March 31, 2026. The daily backtesting losses are displayed as a percentage of the corresponding daily Risk Management VaR. The count of days with backtesting losses are shown in aggregate, in fifty percentage point intervals. Backtesting exceptions are displayed within the intervals that are greater than one hundred percent. The results in the chart below differ from the results of backtesting disclosed in the Market Risk section of the Firm’s Basel III Pillar 3 Regulatory Capital Disclosures reports, which are based on Regulatory VaR applied to the Firm’s covered positions.

Distribution of Daily Backtesting Gains and Losses

Structural interest rate risk management

The effect of interest rate exposure on the Firm’s reported net income is important as interest rate risk represents one of the Firm’s significant market risks. Interest rate risk arises not only from trading activities which are included in VaR, but also from the Firm’s traditional banking activities, which include extension of loans and credit facilities, taking deposits, issuing debt, as well as the investment securities portfolio, and associated derivative instruments.

Refer to the table on page 134 of JPMorganChase’s 2025 Form 10-K for a summary by LOB and Corporate identifying positions included in earnings-at-risk.

Earnings-at-risk

One way that the Firm evaluates its structural interest rate risk is through earnings-at-risk. Earnings-at-risk estimates the Firm’s interest rate exposure for a given interest rate scenario. It is presented as a sensitivity to a baseline, which includes net interest income and certain interest rate sensitive fees. The baseline uses market interest rates and, in the case of deposits, pricing assumptions. The Firm conducts simulations of changes to this baseline for interest rate-sensitive assets and liabilities denominated in U.S. dollars and other currencies (“non-U.S. dollar” currencies). These simulations primarily include retained and held-for-sale loans, deposits, deposits with banks and financing activities, investment securities, long-term debt, related interest rate hedges, and funds transfer pricing of other positions in risk management VaR and other sensitivity-based measures as described on page 134 of JPMorganChase’s 2025 Form 10-K. These simulations also include hedges of non-U.S. dollar foreign exchange exposures arising from capital investments. Refer to non-U.S. dollar foreign exchange risk on page 142 of JPMorganChase’s 2025 Form 10-K for more information.

Earnings-at-risk scenarios estimate the potential change to a baseline, over the following 12 months utilizing multiple assumptions. These scenarios include a parallel shift involving changes to both short-term and long-term rates by an equal amount; a steeper yield curve involving holding short-term rates constant and increasing long-term rates; and a flatter yield curve involving increasing short-term rates and holding long-term rates constant or holding short-term rates constant and decreasing long-term rates. These scenarios consider many different factors, including:

•The impact on exposures as a result of instantaneous changes in interest rates from baseline rates.

•Forecasted balance sheet, as well as modeled prepayment and reinvestment behavior, but excluding assumptions about actions that could be taken by the Firm or its clients and customers in response to instantaneous rate changes. Mortgage prepayment assumptions are based on the interest rates used in the scenarios compared with underlying contractual rates, the time since origination, and other factors which are updated periodically based on historical experience. Deposit forecasts are a key assumption in the Firm’s earnings-at-risk. The baseline reflects certain assumptions relating to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet policy (e.g., quantitative tightening and usage at the Reverse Repurchase Facility) that require management judgment. The amount of deposits that the Firm holds at any given time may be influenced by Federal Reserve actions, as well as broader monetary conditions and competition for deposits.

•The pricing sensitivity of deposits, known as deposit betas, represent the amount by which deposit rates paid could change upon a given change in market interest rates. Actual deposit rates paid may differ from the modeled assumptions, primarily due to customer behavior and competition for deposits.

The Firm performs sensitivity analyses of the assumptions used in earnings-at-risk scenarios, including with respect to deposit betas and forecasts of deposit balances, both of which are especially significant in the case of consumer deposits. The results of these sensitivity analyses are reported to the CTC Risk Committee and the Board Risk Committee.

The Firm’s earnings-at-risk scenarios are periodically evaluated and enhanced in response to changes in the composition of the Firm’s balance sheet, changes in market conditions, improvements in the Firm’s simulation and other factors.

The Firm’s earnings-at-risk sensitivities are measures of the Firm’s interest rate exposure. The Firm’s actual net interest income for the rate changes presented may differ as the earnings-at-risk scenarios are modelled as instantaneous changes and exclude any actions that could be taken by the Firm or its clients or customers in response to rate changes. Other significant assumptions in the earnings-at-risk scenarios, including mortgage prepayments and deposit rates paid, may also differ from actual results. The Firm’s forecast for net interest income is included in the Firm’s outlook on page 8.

The Firm’s sensitivities are presented in the table below.

(a)Reflects the simultaneous shift of U.S. dollar and non-U.S. dollar rates, including hedges of non-U.S. dollar capital investments. Non-U.S. dollar sensitivities were insignificant.

The change in the Firm’s sensitivities as of March 31, 2026 compared to December 31, 2025 was primarily driven by the net impact of Treasury and CIO actions including an increase in investment securities, which adds duration, as well as the impact of higher rates. This was partially offset by the effects from changes in Firmwide deposits.

Economic value sensitivity

In addition to earnings-at-risk, which is measured as a sensitivity to a baseline of earnings over the next 12 months, the Firm also measures economic value sensitivity (“EVS”). EVS stress tests the longer-term economic value of equity by measuring the sensitivity of the Firm’s current balance sheet, primarily retained loans, deposits, debt and investment securities as well as related hedges, under various interest rate scenarios. The Firm's pricing and cash flow assumptions associated with deposits, as well as prepayment assumptions for loans and securities, are significant factors in the EVS measure. In accordance with the CTC interest rate risk management policy, the Firm has established limits on EVS as a percentage of TCE.

Certain assumptions used in the EVS measure may differ from those required in the fair value measurement note to the Consolidated Financial Statements. For example, certain assets and liabilities with no stated maturity, such as credit card receivables and deposits, have longer assumed durations in the EVS measure. Additional information on long-term debt and held to maturity investment securities is disclosed on page 97 in Note 2.

Other sensitivity-based measures

The Firm quantifies the market risk of certain debt and equity and funding-related exposures by assessing the potential impact on net revenue, other comprehensive income (“OCI”) and noninterest expense due to changes in relevant market variables. Refer to the predominant business activities that give rise to market risk on page 134 of JPMorganChase’s 2025 Form 10-K for additional information on the positions captured in other sensitivity-based measures.

The table below represents the potential impact to net revenue, OCI or noninterest expense for market risk-sensitive instruments that are not included in VaR or earnings-at-risk. Where appropriate, instruments used for hedging purposes are reported net of the positions being hedged. The sensitivities disclosed in the table below may not be representative of the actual gain or loss that would have been realized at March 31, 2026 and December 31, 2025, as the movement in market parameters across maturities may vary and are not intended to imply management’s expectation of future changes in these sensitivities.

(a)Excludes equity securities without readily determinable fair values that are measured under the measurement alternative. Refer to Note 2 for additional information.

(b)Impact recognized through net revenue.

(c)Impact recognized through noninterest expense.

(d)Impact recognized through OCI.