HORACE MANN EDUCATORS CORP DE

A catastrophe event, a series of multiple catastrophe events or a series of non-catastrophe severe weather events could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Underwriting results of property and casualty insurers are subject to weather and other conditions prevailing in an accident year. While one year may be relatively free of major weather or other disasters, not all of which are designated by the insurance industry as a catastrophe, another year may have numerous such events causing results for such a year to be materially worse than for previous years.

Our Property & Casualty insurance subsidiaries have experienced, and we anticipate that in the future they will continue to experience, catastrophe losses. A catastrophe event, a series of multiple catastrophe events or a series of non-catastrophe severe weather events could have a material adverse effect on the financial condition and results of operations of our insurance subsidiaries.

Various events can cause catastrophes, including hurricanes, windstorms, hail, severe winter weather, wildfires, earthquakes, explosions and terrorism. The frequency and severity of these catastrophes are inherently unpredictable. The extent of losses from a catastrophe is a function of both the total amount of insured exposures in the area affected by the event and the severity of the event. Although catastrophes can cause losses in a variety of property and casualty lines, most of the catastrophe-related claims of our insurance subsidiaries are related to property coverages. Our ability to provide accurate estimates of ultimate catastrophe losses is based on several factors, including:

•the proximity of the catastrophe occurrence date to the date of our estimate;

•potential inflation of property and auto repair costs in the affected area;

•supply chain interruptions resulting in cost increases, including availability of services and materials;

•the occurrence of multiple catastrophes in a geographic area over a relatively short period of time; and

•the outcome of litigation which may be filed against us by policyholders, state attorneys general and other parties relative to loss coverage disputes and loss settlement payments.

Based on 2024 direct premiums earned, 59.6% of the total annual premiums for our Property & Casualty business were for policies issued in the ten largest states in which the insurance subsidiaries write property and casualty coverage. Included in this top ten group are certain states which are considered to be more prone to catastrophe occurrences: California, Texas, North Carolina, Minnesota, Georgia, South Carolina, and Louisiana.

Our property and casualty loss reserves may not be adequate.

Our Property & Casualty insurance subsidiaries maintain loss reserves to provide for their estimated ultimate liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses with respect to reported and unreported claims incurred as of the end of each reporting date. If these loss reserves prove inadequate, a loss is recognized and measured by the amount of the shortfall and, as a result, the financial condition and results of operations of the insurance subsidiaries may be adversely affected, potentially affecting their ability to distribute cash to us.

Reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability. Reserves represent estimates, generally involving actuarial projections at a given time, of what the insurance subsidiaries expect the ultimate settlement and adjustment of claims will cost, net of salvage and subrogation. Estimates are based on assessments of known facts and circumstances, assumptions related to the ultimate cost to settle such claims, estimates of future trends in claims severity and frequency, changing judicial theories of liability and other factors. These variables are affected by both internal and external events, including changes in claims handling procedures, economic inflation, unpredictability of court decisions, plaintiffs' expanded theories of liability, risks inherent in major litigation and legislative changes. Many of these items are not directly quantifiable, particularly on a prospective basis. Significant reporting lags may exist between the occurrence of an insured event and the time it is reported. Our insurance subsidiaries adjust their reserve estimates regularly as experience develops and further claims are reported and settled.

While the rate of inflation has started to stabilize, the higher inflation over the past few years has significantly increased our loss costs in our auto and property businesses. It is possible that inflation could remain at elevated levels for a prolonged period, or increase from these high levels, which could in turn lead to further increases in our loss costs. The impact of inflation on loss costs could be more pronounced for those lines of business that are considered “longer tail,” such as auto liability, as they require a relatively long period of time to finalize and settle claims for a given accident year. Recent changes in the macroeconomic environment have impacted medical labor and materials costs, the potential persistency of which could result in future loss costs which are higher than our current expectations. The estimation of loss reserves may also be more difficult during extreme events, such as a pandemic, or during volatile or uncertain economic conditions, due to unexpected changes in behavior of claimants and policyholders, including an increase in fraudulent reporting of exposures and/or losses, reduced maintenance of insured properties, increased frequency of small claims or delays in the reporting or adjudication of claims, and supply chain constraints.

Due to the inherent uncertainty in estimating reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses, we cannot be certain that the ultimate liability will not exceed amounts reserved, with a resulting adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Our legacy commercial lines exposure could encounter adjustments to loss reserve estimates.

Estimating loss reserves for legacy commercial lines policies issued as early as the 1960s is inherently uncertain. Claims arising out of commercial lines policies can take years, or even decades, to emerge and be resolved. Uncertainty arises from various factors, including changes in legal and regulatory environments, evolving judicial interpretations, medical cost inflation, and emerging litigation trends such as social inflation. Additionally, our assumptions regarding claim frequency, severity, and development patterns may prove inaccurate, leading to reserve deficiencies or redundancies.

Actual experience differing significantly from our life pricing and reserving assumptions could negatively affect our results of operations and financial condition.

The profitability of our supplemental insurance, life insurance, and annuity products depends significantly upon the extent to which our actual experience is consistent with the assumptions used in setting prices for our products and establishing liabilities for our future policy benefits and claims. The premiums we charge and the liabilities we hold for future policy benefits are based on assumptions reflecting several factors, including the amount of premiums we will receive in the future, rate of return on assets we purchase, expected claims, mortality, morbidity, lapse rates and expenses. In addition, for our supplemental products, historical results may not be indicative of future performance due to, among other things, changes in our mix of business, regulatory actions or changes in legal doctrine impacting our products or lines of business, or any number of economic cyclical effects including inflation.

Due to the nature of the underlying risks and the degree of uncertainty associated with the determination of the liabilities for unpaid policy benefits and claims, we cannot precisely determine the amounts we will ultimately pay to settle these liabilities, the timing of such payments, or whether the assets supporting the liabilities, together with future premium, will be sufficient to satisfy the liabilities. As a result, we may experience volatility in the level of our profitability and our reserves from period to period. To the extent that actual experience is less favorable than our underlying assumptions, we could be required to increase our liabilities, which my harm our financial strength and reduce our profitability.

A large-scale pandemic, the occurrence of terrorism or military actions may have an adverse effect on our business.

A large-scale pandemic, the occurrence of terrorism or military and other actions may result in loss of life, property damage, and disruptions to commerce and reduced economic activity. Some of the assets in our investment portfolio may be adversely affected by declines in the equity markets, changes in interest rates, reduced liquidity and economic activity caused by a large-scale pandemic. Additionally, a large-scale pandemic or terrorist act could have a material effect on sales, liquidity and operating results.

The effects of a global pandemic on the U.S. economy, our customers, our agents, our employees, our investments and our communities, as well as any preventative or protective actions that we, our employees and agency force, our third-party service providers and suppliers, or governments may take to mitigate the impact of a global pandemic could have an adverse effect on our ability to conduct business and on our financial condition and results of operations. Impacts to our business have been and could continue to be widespread and may result in the following:

•employees contracting effects from a global pandemic;

•increased competition in hiring and retaining employees and agents;

•sustained lack of access to schools and educators that could materially impact our sales and premium volumes;

•public school systems facing budget constraints due to the economic impacts of the pandemic that could result in educator layoffs;

•unprecedented volatility in financial markets that could materially affect our investment portfolio valuations and returns as well as our ability to generate targeted spreads on indexed products;

•regulatory mandates and/or legislative changes, including premium grace periods and premium credits;

•changes in frequency and/or severity of claims;

•supply chain interruptions resulting in cost increases, including availability of services and materials;

•increased credit risk;

•business disruption for insurance agents who market and sell our insurance products; and,

•business disruptions to third parties at which we outsource certain business functions to or on which we rely for technology.

The full extent to which pandemics or terrorist acts could affect the global economy, the financial markets and our business, our financial condition and our results of operations will depend on future developments and factors that cannot be predicted.

Climate change may adversely affect our financial position, results of operations and cash flows.

Climate change presents risk to us and there are concerns that the increased frequency, severity and geographic spread of weather-related catastrophes and other losses, as well as time of year of occurrence are indicative of changing weather patterns, whether as a result of climate-warming trends (global climate change) caused by human activities or otherwise, which could cause such events to persist. Increased weather-related catastrophes could lead to higher overall losses, which we may not be able to recoup, particularly in a highly regulated and competitive environment, and higher reinsurance costs. Certain catastrophe models assume an increase in frequency and severity of certain weather or other events, which could result in a disproportionate impact on insurers with certain geographic concentrations of risk. This could also likely increase the risks of writing property insurance in coastal areas or areas susceptible to wildfires or hail and wind activity, particularly in jurisdictions that restrict pricing and underwriting flexibility. The threat of rising sea levels or other catastrophe losses as a result of global climate change may also cause property values in coastal or such other communities to decrease, reducing the total amount of insurance coverage that is required.

In the short term, extreme weather conditions cause financial impacts and disruptions in our daily Property & Casualty operations. We have experienced millions of dollars in losses from catastrophes such as hurricanes, wildfires, wind, and thunderstorms. Catastrophes can also impact a property and casualty insurance company's claims and claim adjustment expenses incurred.

In addition, global climate change could have an impact on our fixed maturity securities and limited partnership portfolios, resulting in realized and unrealized losses in future periods that could have a material adverse effect on our financial position, results of operations and cash flows. It is not possible to foresee which, if any, assets, industries or markets may be materially and adversely affected, nor is it possible to foresee the magnitude of such effect.

Further, it is also possible that the legal, regulatory and social responses to climate change could have an adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. In 2022, the SEC proposed a new disclosure rule that would require public companies to disclose on several climate-related factors, including climate-related risk management and greenhouse gas emissions, among others. In March 2024, the SEC adopted final rules requiring public companies to disclose climate-related risks, greenhouse gas emissions, and financial impacts of climate-related events. However, enforcement was stayed in April 2024 due to legal challenges questioning the SEC's authority. As of November 2024, the rules remain on hold pending litigation, with the outcome expected to shape the future of climate-related disclosure requirements. The legal proceedings are expected to continue into 2025. We expect that changes in these laws, regulations and proposals could negatively impact our business, including by increasing our legal, compliance and information technology costs. For additional impacts from the regulatory environment, see Part I - Item 1A - Risk Factors - 'Legal, statutory and regulatory developments could adversely impact our business by increasing costs or making our business less profitable."

Cybersecurity breaches could have an adverse effect on our business and reputation.

Cybersecurity threats and incidents have increased in recent years in frequency, levels of persistence, sophistication and intensity, and we may be subject to heightened cyber-related risks. Our business depends on the proper functioning and availability of our information technology platform, including communications and data processing systems, our proprietary systems, and systems of our third-party service providers. We have implemented and maintain what we believe to be reasonable security measures, but we cannot guarantee that the controls and procedures we have in place to protect or recover our respective systems and the information stored on such systems will be effective, successful or sufficiently rapid to avoid harm to our business. Moreover, while we generally perform cybersecurity due diligence on our key service providers, we cannot ensure the cybersecurity measures they take will be sufficient to protect any information we share with them. Due to applicable laws, regulations, rules, standards and contractual obligations, we may be held responsible for cyber-attacks, security breaches or other similar incidents attributed to our service providers as they relate to the information we share with them.

Cybersecurity threats are evolving in nature and becoming increasingly difficult to detect, and may come from a variety of sources, including organized criminal groups, “hacktivists,” terrorists, and nation state-supported actors. These threats include, among other things, computer viruses, worms, malware, ransomware, denial of service attacks, defective software, credential stuffing, social engineering, phishing attacks, human error, fraud, theft, or improper access by employees or service providers, and other similar threats. Any cybersecurity incident, including system failure, cyber-attacks, security breaches, disruption by malware or other damage, with respect to our or our service providers’ information technology systems, could interrupt or delay our operations, result in a violation of applicable cybersecurity, privacy, data protection or other laws, regulations, rules, standards or contractual obligations, damage our reputation, cause a loss of customers or expose sensitive customer data, give rise to civil litigation, injunctions, damages, monetary fines or other penalties, subject us to additional regulatory scrutiny or notification obligations, and/or increase our compliance costs, any of which could adversely affect our business, financial conditions and results of operations.

We may not be able to anticipate all cyber-attacks, security breaches or other similar incidents, detect or react to such incidents in a timely manner, or adequately remediate any such incident. In addition, recent disclosure requirements add additional risk that bad actors might use the information with malicious intent, exacerbating the impacts of a breach. While management is not aware of any cyber-attack, security breach or other similar incident that has had a material effect on our operations, there can be no assurances that such an incident that could have a material impact on us will not occur in the future.

Further, the cybersecurity, privacy and data protection regulatory environment is evolving, and it is likely that the costs of complying with new or developing regulatory requirements will increase. For example, we operate in a number of jurisdictions with strict cybersecurity, privacy, data protection and other related laws, regulations, rules and standards, which could be violated in the event of a significant cyber-attack, security breach or other similar incident affecting personal, proprietary or confidential information or in the event of noncompliance by our personnel with such obligations.

We cannot ensure that any limitations of liability provisions in our agreements with clients, service providers and other third parties with which we do business would be enforceable or adequate or otherwise protect us from any liabilities or damages with respect to any claim in connection with a cyber-attack, security breach or other similar incident. In addition, while we maintain insurance that would mitigate the financial loss under such scenarios, providing what we believe to be appropriate policy limits, terms and conditions, we cannot guarantee that our insurance coverage will be adequate for all financial and non-financial consequences from a cybersecurity event, that insurance will continue to be available to us on economically reasonable terms, or at all, or that our insurer will not deny coverage as to any future claim.

Successful execution of our business growth strategy is dependent on effective implementation of new or enhanced technology systems and applications.

Our ability to effectively execute our business growth strategy and leverage potential economies of scale is dependent on our ability to provide the requisite technology components for that strategy. Our ability to replace or supplement dated, legacy business systems — such as our Life & Retirement and Property & Casualty policy administrative systems, as well as our financial system — with more flexible, maintainable, and customer accessible solutions will be necessary to achieve our plans. The inherent difficulty in replacing and/or modernizing these older technologies, coupled with our limited experience in these endeavors, presents an increased risk of failing to deliver these technology solutions in a cost effective and timely manner. Our scale will require us to develop innovative solutions to address these challenges, including consideration of "software as a service" arrangements and other third-party based information technology capabilities. More modern approaches to software development and utilization of third-party vendors can augment our internal capacity for these implementations but may not adequately reduce the operational risks of timely and cost-effective delivery.

Loss of key vendor relationships could affect our operations.

We increasingly rely on services and products provided by a number of vendors in the U.S. and abroad. These include, for example, vendors of computer hardware and software, including on-demand software, and vendors of services such as investment management advisement, third-party administrators of our supplemental group benefit products, information technology services — such as those associated with policy administrative systems — and delivery services for customer policy-level communications. In the event that one or more of our vendors suffers a bankruptcy or otherwise becomes unable to continue to provide products or services, we may suffer operational difficulties and financial losses.

Our ability to attract, develop, engage, and retain top talent, maintain optimal staffing levels, and foster/sustain a highly inclusive and engaging culture contributes to our success.

Competition from within the insurance industry and from other industries, including the technology sector, for qualified employees with highly specialized knowledge in areas such as underwriting, data and analytics, technology and e-commerce, has often been intense and we have experienced increased competition in hiring and retaining employees.

Factors that affect our ability to attract and retain such employees include:

•competitive total rewards; including compensation and benefits;

•robust training and development programs;

•reputation as a successful business with a culture of fair hiring, and of training and promoting qualified employees; and,

•recognition and responsiveness to changing trends (i.e., remote/hybrid work arrangements) and other circumstances that affect employees.

The unexpected loss of key personnel could have a material adverse impact on our business because of the loss of their skills, knowledge of our products and offerings and years of industry experience and, in some cases, the difficulty of promptly finding qualified replacement personnel. The risks to attracting and retaining the necessary talent may be exacerbated by recent labor constraints and inflationary pressures on employee wages and benefits.