Oscar Health, Inc.

Regulatory Developments and Trends

Our operations are subject to comprehensive and detailed federal, state, and local laws and regulations, which continue to rapidly evolve and change. Developments related to the regulatory regimes under which we operate have in the past impacted, and are expected to continue to impact, our results of operations. The following regulatory developments have impacted our operations during the periods presented in the financial statements contained elsewhere in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, or are expected to impact our results of operations in future periods.

The ACA

The ACA established significant subsidies to support the purchase of health insurance by individuals, in the form of advanced premium tax credits (“APTCs”), available through Health Insurance Marketplaces. The American Rescue Plan Act (“ARPA”) increased the size of APTCs for 2021 and 2022, and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 renewed the enhanced APTCs for three years through the end of 2025. If Congress does not take action, the enhanced APTCs will expire at the end of 2025. If the enhanced APTCs are not renewed, insurance coverage could become unaffordable for certain individuals.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (“CMS”) is increasingly focused on improving integrity in the Health Insurance Marketplace eligibility and enrollment process, and we expect this focus to continue. During the second half of 2024, CMS enacted new measures to respond to increases in unauthorized changes in consumer enrollments by agents and brokers and to reduce consumer burdens related to unauthorized enrollments. While these measures are important to prevent unauthorized enrollments, they may also make it more difficult for individuals to complete valid enrollments in new plans, switch from one plan to another, or obtain APTCs. In addition, on June 25, 2025, CMS issued a final rule that creates new processes to confirm member eligibility for APTCs, including a shortened timeframe for members to reconcile eligibility for APTCs to their tax returns, as well as other requirements related to ACA plan enrollment, including shorter open enrollment periods and the suspension of certain special enrollment periods (the “Program Integrity Rules”). The Program Integrity Rules become effective on August 25, 2025, with some provisions that will take effect in 2026 and 2027. Furthermore, on July 4, 2025, the President signed into law the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (the “OBBBA”) which, among other relevant matters, limits the eligibility of APTCs for certain populations, and requires additional verification procedures to confirm member eligibility for APTCs.

The implementation of the Program Integrity Rules, the OBBBA, and the discontinuation of the enhanced APTCs (if not renewed at the end of 2025), will likely reduce overall participation in the Health Insurance Marketplaces, and any resulting market contraction could negatively impact market morbidity. For additional details on how these factors may impact Oscar, see “Risk Factors-Most Material Risks to Us-Our success and ability to grow our business depend in part on retaining and expanding our member base. If we fail to add new members or retain current members, or manage our membership growth appropriately to meet our business objectives, our business, revenue, operating results, and financial condition could be harmed” and“Risk Factors–Most Material Risks to Us–Failure to accurately estimate our incurred medical expenses or effectively manage our medical costs or related administrative costs could negatively affect our financial position, results of operations, and cash flows” in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and“Risk Factors–Most Material Risks to Us–Any changes to the ACA and its regulations could materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition” and“Business–Government Regulation–Ongoing Requirements and Changes to the ACA” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024.

Medicaid redeterminations began on April 1, 2023 and CMS announced a Special Enrollment Period (“SEP”) that began March 31, 2023 and ended November 30, 2024 to facilitate enrollment in the ACA by individuals who lost Medicaid coverage under the redetermination process. While CMS announced in 2024 that all unwinding-related renewals for beneficiaries enrolled in Medicaid or the Children's Health Insurance Program (“CHIP”) must be completed no later than December 31, 2025, our understanding is that the majority of states substantially completed their unwinding processes in 2024. We believe these Medicaid redeterminations have previously contributed to increases in our membership, however, we anticipate that any future impact on our membership will not be as significant as the membership growth we previously experienced. We believe that members who have enrolled in the ACA through the Medicaid redetermination process are higher utilizers of care and have increased the overall morbidity of the Health Insurance Marketplace. For additional details, see “Risk Factors–Most Material Risks to Us–Failure to accurately estimate our incurred medical expenses or effectively manage our medical costs or related administrative costs could negatively affect our financial position, results of operations, and cash flows” in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and “Business–Government Regulation–Ongoing Requirements and Changes to the ACA” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024.

Proposed Tariffs

The Trump administration has indicated that new tariffs may be imposed on a variety of products relevant to our business, including certain pharmaceutical products and ingredients and medical devices and supplies imported into the United States. If such tariffs are imposed, the potential impact could include, among other things, higher costs for medical providers and facilities, higher pharmaceutical prices, higher costs of medical devices, and supplies and shortages of certain medicines and medical supplies. Shortages in medicines and supplies may also impact the health of our members, which in turn may result in higher medical costs. The unprecedented nature of these types of tariffs, as well as uncertainty around their implementation, could impact our ability to accurately estimate and effectively manage the impact on our medical expenses, which in turn could adversely affect our results of operations and financial position. For additional details, see“Risk Factors-Most Material Risks to Us-Failure to accurately estimate our incurred medical expenses or effectively manage our medical costs or related administrative costs could negatively affect our financial position, results of operations, and cash flows”in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.

SEP Market Dynamics Developments and Trends

SEP or other market dynamics that drive enrollment and/or mix changes throughout the year may impact the per member levels of premiums, claims, and/or risk adjustment transfers. During the year ended December 31, 2024, the increase in our membership was due in part to an increase in member enrollments through SEP which impacted our MLR. Higher SEP growth in certain markets throughout 2024 may have contributed to the increase in our risk transfer payable for the year ended December 31, 2024 and the six months ended June 30, 2025.

Members

Our membership is measured as of a particular point in time. Membership may change due to the pricing of, and benefits offered under, our plans both relative to our competitors and considered on a stand-alone basis, our expansion into or exiting of certain markets, and may vary throughout the year due to disenrollments, SEP, and other market dynamics that are in effect such as Medicaid redeterminations, enhancements, reductions or eliminations of APTCs, other legislative or regulatory actions, such as recent CMS initiatives to improve the integrity in the ACA eligibility and enrollment process, pre-enrollment verification procedures required by OBBBA, or other factors that cause the overall market to grow or decline.

Risk Adjustment

The risk adjustment programs in the markets we serve are administered federally by CMS and are designed to mitigate the potential impact of adverse selection and provide stability for health insurers. Under this program, each plan is assigned a risk score based upon demographic information and current year claims information related to its members. The risk score is used to adjust plan revenue to reflect the relative risk of the plan's enrolled population. We reevaluate our risk adjustment transfer estimates as new information and market data becomes available, until we receive the final reporting from CMS in later periods, up to twelve months in arrears. In July 2025 the Company received third-party reports, based on claims data through April 2025, providing estimates of the market risk score (a measure of morbidity) for the states where we participate in the ACA. As a result of this new data, the Company significantly increased its estimate of the risk adjustment transfer as of June 30, 2025.

Our risk transfer estimates are subject to a high degree of estimation and variability, and are affected by the relative risk of our members, and in the case of ACA, that of other insurers. The data that we rely upon to calculate these estimates includes data received from independent third parties. In addition, the data may be incomplete, can vary considerably from period to period, requires considerable judgment in interpretation, lacks context, and provides limited insight. Moreover, our risk transfer estimates are subject to change due to factors outside of our control, such as changes in legislation, regulations, regulatory enforcement, enrollment in government health plans, inflation, market size, market morbidity, the actions of our competitors, and other uncertainties. There is a higher degree of uncertainty associated with estimates of risk adjustment transfers earlier in the policy year or, in the case of SEP driven enrollment, throughout the policy year, resulting from the fact that risk scores are based on lagged claim data. There is additional uncertainty for both markets and blocks of business that experience outsized growth, compounded by the lack of credible experience data on the newly enrolling population, including SEP driven enrollees and new members moving from one government program to another. Furthermore, there is also uncertainty associated with changes in other carriers operations, which may impact the ultimate degree of market-level risk. Actual risk adjustment calculations and transfers have in the past materially differed, and could materially differ in the future, from our assumptions.

Claims Incurred

Our medical expenses are impacted by unit costs and utilization, as well as seasonal effects on medical costs, such as the utilization of deductibles and out-of-pocket maximums over the course of the policy year, which shift more costs to us in the second half of the year as we pay a higher proportion of covered claims costs, and the number of days and holidays in a given period. Our medical and pharmacy costs can also exhibit seasonality depending on selection effects or changes in the risk profile of our membership and the proportion of our membership that is new in the calendar year. The emergence of medical and pharmacy claims is influenced by the aforementioned drivers, and further mix shifts may continue to alter claims incurred patterns in future periods.

Seasonality

Our business is generally affected by the seasonal patterns of our member enrollment, medical expenses, and health plan mix shift and product design. SEP or other market dynamics that drive enrollment and/or mix changes throughout the year may impact the per member levels of premiums, claims, and/or risk adjustment transfers.

Reinsurance

We believe our reinsurance agreements help us achieve important goals for our business, including risk management and capital efficiency. Our reinsurance agreements are contracted under two different types of arrangements: quota share reinsurance contracts and excess of loss (“XOL”) reinsurance contracts. In quota share reinsurance, the reinsurer agrees to assume a specified percentage of the ceding company’s losses in exchange for a corresponding percentage of premiums. In XOL reinsurance, the reinsurer agrees to assume all or a portion of the ceding company’s losses in excess of a specified amount. Under XOL reinsurance, the premium payable to the reinsurer is negotiated by the parties based on losses on an individual member in a given calendar year and their assessment of the amount of risk being ceded to the reinsurer. In the case of federal and state-run reinsurance programs, no reinsurance premiums are paid. The reinsurance agreements do not relieve us of our primary medical claims incurred obligations. Refer to“Note 9 - Reinsurance” included elsewhere in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for a description of the accounting methods used to record our quota share reinsurance arrangements.