Athene Holding Ltd

Economic and Market Conditions

As a leading financial services company specializing in retirement services, we are affected by the condition of global financial markets and the economy. Price fluctuations within equity, credit, commodity and foreign exchange markets, as well as interest rates and global inflation, which may be volatile and mixed across geographies, can significantly impact the performance of our business, including, but not limited to, the valuation of investments, and related income we may recognize.

Adverse economic conditions may result from domestic and global economic and political developments, including plateauing or decreasing economic growth and business activity, civil unrest, geopolitical tensions or military action, such as the armed conflicts in the Middle East and between Ukraine and Russia, and corresponding sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and other countries, and new or evolving legal and regulatory requirements on business investment, hiring, migration, labor supply and global supply chains.

We carefully monitor economic and market conditions that could potentially give rise to global market volatility and affect our business operations, investment portfolios and derivatives, which includes global inflation. US inflation eased in 2024 but the Consumer Price Index remains above the US Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual US inflation rate decreased modestly to 3.0% as of June 30, 2024, compared to 3.5% as of March 31, 2024. The US Federal Reserve finished the quarter with a benchmark interest rate target range of 5.25% to 5.50%, unchanged from its July 2023 meeting.

Equity market performance was strong during the second quarter of 2024. In the US, the S&P 500 Index increased by 3.9% during the second quarter, following an increase of 10.2% in the first quarter of 2024. In terms of economic conditions in the US, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the second quarter of 2024, following an increase of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2024. As of July 2024, the International Monetary Fund estimated that the US economy will expand by 2.6% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US unemployment rate increased to 4.1% as of June 30, 2024, compared to 3.8% as of March 31, 2024. Oil finished the second quarter of 2024 down 2.0% from the first quarter of 2024.

Foreign exchange rates can materially impact the valuations of our investments and liabilities that are denominated in currencies other than the US dollar. The US dollar strengthened in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the euro and Japanese yen. Relative to the US dollar, the euro depreciated 0.7% in the second quarter of 2024, after depreciating 2.3% in the first quarter of 2024. Relative to the US dollar, the Japanese yen depreciated 5.9% in the second quarter of 2024, after depreciating 6.9% in the first quarter of 2024. We generally undertake hedging activities to eliminate or mitigate foreign exchange currency risk.

Interest Rate Environment

Rates increased during the second quarter of 2024 with the US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.36% compared to 4.20% at the end of the first quarter of 2024. The US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield curves remain inverted.

Our investment portfolio consists predominantly of fixed maturity investments. See–Investment Portfolio. If prevailing interest rates were to rise, we believe the yield on our new investment purchases may also rise and our investment income from floating rate investments would increase, while the value of our existing investments may decline. If prevailing interest rates were to decline significantly, the yield on our new investment purchases may decline and our investment income from floating rate investments would decrease, while the value of our existing investments may increase.

We address interest rate risk through managing the duration of the liabilities we source with assets we acquire through asset liability management (ALM) modeling. As part of our investment strategy, we purchase floating rate investments, which we expect would perform well in a rising interest rate environment and which we expect would underperform in a declining rate environment. We manage our interest rate risk in a declining rate environment through hedging activity or the issuance of additional floating rate liabilities to lower our overall net floating rate position. As of June 30, 2024, our net invested asset portfolio included $45.5 billion of floating rate investments, or 20% of our net invested assets, and our net reserve liabilities included $30.3 billion of floating rate liabilities at notional, or 13% of our net invested assets, resulting in $15.2 billion of net floating rate assets, or 7% of our net invested assets.

If prevailing interest rates were to rise, we believe our products would be more attractive to consumers and our sales would likely increase. If prevailing interest rates were to decline, it is likely that our products would be less attractive to consumers and our sales would likely decrease. In periods of prolonged low interest rates, the net investment spread may be negatively impacted by reduced investment income to the extent that we are unable to adequately reduce policyholder crediting rates due to policyholder guarantees in the form of minimum crediting rates or otherwise due to market conditions. See Note 7 – Long-duration Contracts to the condensed consolidated financial statements for policyholder account balances by range of guaranteed minimum crediting rates and the related distance to those respective guaranteed minimums. The policyholder account balances represent deferred annuities, funding agreements and other investment-type products. A significant majority of our deferred annuity products have crediting rates that we may reset annually upon renewal, following the expiration of the current guaranteed period. While we have the contractual ability to lower these crediting rates to the guaranteed minimum levels, our willingness to do so may be limited by competitive pressures. Our funding agreements and other investment-type products, as well as our remaining liabilities associated with immediate annuities, pension group annuity obligations and life contracts, provide us little to no discretionary ability to change the rates of interest payable to the respective policyholder or institution.

See Part I—Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risks in this report and Part II—Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risks in our 2023 Annual Report, which include a discussion regarding interest rate and other significant risks and our strategies for managing these risks.

Demographics

Over the next four decades, the retirement-age population is expected to experience unprecedented growth. Technological advances and improvements in healthcare are projected to continue to contribute to increasing average life expectancy, and aging individuals must be prepared to fund retirement periods that will last longer than ever before. Further, many working households in the US do not have adequate retirement savings. As a tool for addressing the unmet need for retirement planning, we believe that many Americans have begun to look to tax-efficient savings products with low-risk or guaranteed return features and potential equity market upside. Our tax-efficient savings products are well positioned to meet this increasing customer demand.

Competition

We operate in highly competitive markets. We face a variety of large and small industry participants, including diversified financial institutions, insurance and reinsurance companies and private equity firms. These companies compete in one form or another for the growing pool of retirement assets driven by a number of external factors such as the continued aging of the population and the reduction in safety nets provided by governments and private employers. In the markets in which we operate, scale and the ability to provide value-added services and build long-term relationships are important factors to compete effectively. We believe that our leading presence in the retirement market, diverse range of capabilities and broad distribution network uniquely position us to effectively serve consumers’ increasing demand for retirement solutions, particularly in the fixed annuity market.

According to the Life Insurance and Market Research Association (LIMRA), total annuity market sales in the US were $106.7 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2024, a 13.4% increase from the same time period in 2023, as higher interest rates resulted in continued growth in the US annuity market. In the total annuity market, for the three months ended March 31, 2024 (the most recent period for which specific market share data is available), we were the largest provider of annuities based on sales of $9.7 billion, translating to a 9.1% market share. For the three months ended March 31, 2023, we were the largest provider of annuities based on sales of $8.6 billion, translating to a 9.2% market share.

According to LIMRA, total fixed annuity market sales in the US were $78.5 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2024, a 10.8% increase from the same time period in 2023. In the total fixed annuity market, for the three months ended March 31, 2024 (the most recent period for which specific market share data is available), we were the largest provider of fixed annuities based on sales of $9.4 billion, translating to a 12.0% market share. For the three months ended March 31, 2023, we were the largest provider of fixed annuities based on sales of $8.4 billion, translating to an 11.9% market share.

According to LIMRA, total fixed indexed annuity market sales in the US were $28.6 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2024, a 23.8% increase from the same time period in 2023. For the three months ended March 31, 2024 (the most recent period for which specific market share data is available), we were the largest provider of FIAs based on sales of $4.2 billion, translating to a 14.5% market share. For the three months ended March 31, 2023, we were the largest provider of FIAs based on sales of $2.5 billion, translating to a 10.8% market share.

According to LIMRA, total registered indexed linked annuity (RILA) market sales in the US were $14.5 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2024, a 39.6% increase from the same time period in 2023. For the three months ended March 31, 2024 (the most recent period for which specific market share data is available), we were the tenth largest provider of RILAs based on sales of $291 million, translating to a 2.0% market share. For the three months ended March 31, 2023, we were the tenth largest provider of RILAs based on sales of $217 million, translating to a 2.1% market share. We believe RILAs represent a significant growth opportunity for Athene.