World Gold Trust
For the period ended Sep 30, 2024. Filed Nov 25, 2024.
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FY2024 · Filed Nov 25, 2024
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The Gold Industry
Gold Supply and Demand
Gold is a physical asset that is accumulated rather than consumed. As a result, virtually all the gold that has ever been mined still exists today in one form or another. The following table is a summary of the world gold supply and demand for the past 5 years. It is based on information reported inGold Focus 20241.
World Gold Supply and Demand (2019-2023)
| Tonnes | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUPPLY | |||||
| Mine Production | 3,599 | 3,484 | 3,576 | 3,634 | 3,646 |
| Recycling | 1,276 | 1,293 | 1,136 | 1,140 | 1,239 |
| Net Hedging Supply | 6 | — | — | — | 59 |
| Total Supply | 4,880 | 4,777 | 4,712 | 4,774 | 4,945 |
| DEMAND | |||||
| Jewelry Fabrication | 2,152 | 1,324 | 2,230 | 2,196 | 2,194 |
| Industrial Demand | 333 | 309 | 337 | 315 | 305 |
| Net Physical Investment | 849 | 899 | 1,181 | 1,213 | 1,203 |
| Net Hedging Demand | — | 39 | 7 | 9 | — |
| Net Official Sector Buying | 605 | 255 | 450 | 1,082 | 1,030 |
| Total Demand | 3,939 | 2,826 | 4,205 | 4,815 | 4,732 |
| Market Balance | 942 | 1,950 | 507 | (41) | 212 |
| Net Investment in ETPs | 404 | 893 | (189) | (110) | (244) |
| Market Balance less ETPs | 538 | 1,058 | 695 | 68 | 456 |
| Gold Price (US$/oz, London) | 1,393 | 1,770 | 1,799 | 1,800 | 1,941 |
Source: Gold Focus 2024
Sources of Gold Supply
Based on data fromGold Focus 2024, gold supply averaged 4,818 tonnes per year between 2019 and 2023. Sources of gold supply include both mine production and recycled above-ground stocks and, to a lesser extent, producer net hedging. The largest portion of gold supplied to the market is from mine production, which averaged approximately 3,588 tonnes per year from 2019 through 2023. The second largest source of annual gold supply is recycling gold, which is gold that has been recovered from jewelry and other fabricated products and converted back into marketable gold. Recycled gold averaged approximately 1,217 tonnes annually between 2019 through 2023.
Sources of Gold Demand
Based on data fromGold Focus 2024, gold demand averaged 4,103 tonnes per year between 2019 and 2023. Gold demand generally comes from four sources: jewelry, industry (including medical applications), investment and the official sector (including central banks and supranational organizations). The largest source of demand comes from jewelry fabrication, which accounted for approximately 49% of the identifiable demand from 2019 through 2023 followed by net physical investment, which represents identifiable investment demand, which accounted for approximately 26% of the demand.
| 1 | Gold Focus 2024 is published by Metals Focus, Ltd. which is a precious metals research consultancy based in London. Metals Focus Data Ltd., an affiliate of the Sponsor, provides the supply and demand data to Metals Focus, Ltd. When used in this report “tonne” refers to one metric tonne, which is equivalent to 1,000 kilograms or 32,151 troy ounces. |
Gold demand is widely dispersed throughout the world with significant contributions from India and China. In many countries there are seasonal fluctuations in the levels of demand for gold—especially jewelry. However, as a result of variations in the timing of seasons throughout the world, seasonal fluctuations in demand do not appear to have a significant impact on the global gold price.
Between 2019 and 2023, according toGold Focus 2024, central bank purchases averaged 684 tonnes. The prominence given by market commentators to this activity coupled with the total amount of gold held by the official sector has resulted in this area being one of the more visible shifts in the gold market.
Operation of the Gold Bullion Market
The global trade in gold consists of over-the-counter (“OTC”) transactions in spot, forwards, and options and other derivatives, together with exchange-traded futures and options.
Global Over-the-Counter Market
The OTC market trades on a continuous basis and accounts for most global gold trading. Market makers and participants in the OTC market trade with each other and their clients on a principal-to-principal basis. All risks and issues of credit are between the parties directly involved in the transaction. The three products relevant to LBMA market making are Spot (S), Forwards (F) and Options (O). There are eleven LBMA Market Makers who provide the service in one, two or all three products 2.
| Member | Membership Type | Spot (S) | Forwards (F) | Options (O) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citibank N A | Full Market Makers | x | x | x |
| Goldman Sachs International | Full Market Makers | x | x | x |
| HSBC | Full Market Makers | x | x | x |
| JP Morgan Chase Bank | Full Market Makers | x | x | x |
| Morgan Stanley & Co International Ltd | Full Market Makers | x | x | x |
| UBS AG | Full Market Makers | x | x | x |
| BNP Paribas SA | Market Makers | x | ||
| ICBC Standard Bank Plc | Market Makers | x | ||
| Merrill Lynch International | Market Makers | x | x | |
| Standard Chartered Bank | Market Makers | x | x | |
| Toronto-Dominion Bank | Market Makers | x | ||
The OTC market provides a relatively flexible market in term of quotes, price, size, destinations for delivery and other factors. Bullion dealers customize transactions to meet their clients’ requirements. The OTC market has no formal structure and no open-outcry meeting place.
The main centers of the OTC market are London, New York and Zurich. Mining companies, central banks, manufacturers of jewelry and industrial products, together with investors and speculators, tend to transact their business through one of these centers. Centers such as Dubai and several cities in the Far East also transact substantial OTC market business. Bullion dealers have offices around the world and most of the world’s major bullion dealers are either members or associate members of the LBMA.
In the OTC market, the standard size of gold trades ranges between 5,000 and 10,000 ounces. Bid-offer spreads are typically $0.50 per ounce. Transaction costs in the OTC market are negotiable between the parties and therefore vary widely, with some dealers willing to offer clients competitive prices for larger volumes, although this will vary according to the dealer, the client and market conditions. Cost indicators can be obtained from various information service providers as well as dealers.
| 2 | www.lbma.org.uk/aboutmembership |
Liquidity in the OTC market can vary from time to time during the course of the 24-hour trading day. Fluctuations in liquidity are reflected in adjustments to dealing spreads—the difference between a dealer’s “buy” and “sell” prices. The period of greatest liquidity in the gold market generally occurs at the time of day when trading in the European time zones overlaps with trading in the United States, which is when OTC market trading in London, New York and other centers coincides with futures and options trading on the Commodity Exchange Inc. (the “COMEX”).
The London Bullion Market
Although the market for physical gold is global, most OTC market trades are cleared through London. In addition to coordinating market activities, the LBMA acts as the principal point of contact between the market and its regulators. A primary function of the LBMA is its involvement in the promotion of refining standards by maintenance of the “Good Delivery Lists,” which are the lists of LBMA accredited melters and assayers of gold. The LBMA also coordinates market clearing and vaulting, promotes good trading practices and develops standard documentation.
The term “loco London” refers to gold bars physically held in London that meet the specifications for weight, dimensions, fineness (or purity), identifying marks (including the assay stamp of an LBMA acceptable refiner) and appearance set forth in “The Good Delivery Rules” published by the LBMA. Gold bars meeting these requirements are known as “London Good Delivery Bars.” The unit of trade in London is the troy ounce, whose conversion between grams is: 1,000 grams = 32.1507465 troy ounces and 1 troy ounce = 31.1034768 grams. A London Good Delivery Bar is acceptable for delivery in settlement of a transaction on the OTC market. Typically referred to as 400- ounce bars, a London Good Delivery Bar must contain between 350 and 430 fine troy ounces of gold, with a minimum fineness (or purity) of 995 parts per 1,000 (99.5%), be of good appearance and be easy to handle and stack. The fine gold content of a gold bar is calculated by multiplying the gross weight of the bar (expressed in units of 0.025 troy ounces) by the fineness of the bar.
LBMA Gold Price
The LBMA Gold Price is determined twice daily during London trading hours through an auction which provides reference gold prices for that day’s trading. The LBMA Gold Price was initiated on March 20, 2015 and replaced the London PM Gold Fix. The auction that determines the LBMA Gold Price is a physically settled, electronic and tradeable auction, with the ability to settle trades in U.S. dollars, euros or British pounds. The IBA provides the auction platform and methodology as well as the overall administration and governance for the LBMA Gold Price. Many long-term contracts are expected to be priced on the basis of either the morning (AM) or afternoon (PM) LBMA Gold Price, and many market participants are expected to refer to one or the other of these prices when looking for a basis for valuations.
Participants in the IBA auction process submit anonymous bids and offers which are published on screen and in real-time. Throughout the auction process, aggregated gold bids and offers are updated in real-time with the imbalance calculated and the price updated every 45 seconds until the buy and sell orders are matched. When the net volume of all participants falls within a pre-determined tolerance, the auction is deemed complete and the applicable LBMA Gold Price is published. Information about the auction process (such as aggregated bid and offer volumes) will be immediately available after the auction on the IBA’s website.
The Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”) in the U.K. regulates the LBMA Gold Price.
Futures Exchanges
Although GLDM does not invest in gold futures, information about the gold futures market is relevant as such markets are a source of liquidity for the overall market for gold and impact the price of gold.
The most significant gold futures exchange is the COMEX, part of the CME Group. It began to offer trading in gold futures contracts in 1974, and for most of the period since that date, it has been the largest exchange in the world for trading precious metals futures and options. The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (the “TOCOM”) is another significant futures exchange and has been trading gold since 1982. Trading on these exchanges is based on fixed delivery dates and transaction sizes for the futures and options contracts traded. Trading costs are negotiable. As a matter of practice, only a small percentage of the futures market turnover ever comes to physical delivery of the gold represented by the contracts traded. Both exchanges permit trading on margin. Margin trading can add to the speculative risk involved given the potential for margin calls if the price moves against the contract holder. Both the COMEX and the TOCOM operate through a central clearance system, and in each case, the exchange acts as a counterparty for each member for clearing purposes. Other commodity exchanges include, the Multi Commodity Exchange of India, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, ICE Futures US (the “ICE”), and the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange. The ICE and CME Group are members of the Intermarket Surveillance Group.
Market Regulation
The global gold markets are overseen and regulated by both governmental and self-regulatory organizations. In addition, certain trade associations have established rules and protocols for market practices and participants.
Movements in the Price of Gold
The following chart provides historical background on the price of gold. The chart illustrates movements in the price of gold in U.S. dollars per ounce over the period from the day the Shares began trading on the NYSE on June 26, 2018 to September 30, 2024, and is based on the LBMA Gold Price PM.
Daily Gold Price–** June** 26, 2018–** September 30, 2024**
LBMA Gold Price PM USD
Responsibly Sourced Gold
The LBMA’s Responsible Sourcing Programme (the “Programme”) is mandatory for all Good Delivery refiners trading with the London bullion market. The LBMA established the Programme to consolidate, strengthen and formalize the existing standards of the LBMA Good Delivery refiners’ due diligence practices with the intent to protect the integrity of the global supply chain for the wholesale precious metals markets. The Programme includes measures to combat money laundering, terrorist financing and human rights abuses globally.
The Responsible Gold Guidance (the “Guidance”) is the specific document that underpins the Programme. All LBMA Good Delivery refiners are required to implement the LBMA’s Responsible Sourcing Guidance, which comprises the Guidance, and obtain annual independent assurance on their publicly available compliance reporting. Failure to appropriately adhere to the Guidance may result in a refiner being removed from the Good Delivery List, following the LBMA’s incident review process.
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