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GREENLIGHT CAPITAL RE LTD

For the period ended Sep 30, 2024. Filed Nov 4, 2024.

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About this filing

A company's report for each of its first three quarters. The financial statements are not audited. It shows how the business has moved since the last annual report, and what management says changed.

Sep 30, 2024 · Filed Nov 4, 2024

GLRE$16.37+1.5%Stored close · as of Nov 10, 2026

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Consolidated Results of Operations

The table below summarizes our consolidated operating results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023:

Three months ended September 30Nine months ended September 30
2024202320242023
Underwriting revenue
Gross premiums written$168,346$183,074$554,579$524,472
Gross premiums ceded(26,598)(14,789)(64,611)(35,740)
Net premiums written141,748168,285489,968488,732
Change in net unearned premium reserves10,136(5,175)(18,150)(43,030)
Net premiums earned$151,884$163,110$471,818$445,702
Underwriting related expenses
Net loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred:
Current year$98,820$100,143$305,467$273,570
Prior year (1)(5,654)(3,300)(943)10,502
Net loss and loss adjustment expenses incurred93,16596,843304,524284,072
Acquisition costs46,16246,933138,226126,702
Underwriting expenses6,0734,63918,22314,046
Deposit interest expense (income), net3772781,020645
Net underwriting income (2)$6,107$14,417$9,825$20,237
Income (loss) from investment in Solasglas$19,844$(1,853)$42,422$27,791
Net investment income8,2446,95824,61124,705
Total investment income$28,088$5,105$67,033$52,496
Corporate expenses$4,253$3,266$13,334$13,820
Foreign exchange losses (gains)(5,826)1,999(3,245)(7,661)
Other income, net(2,210)(706)(9,969)(5,738)
Interest expense2,0181,4574,8272,977
Income tax expense723291,677111
Net income$35,237$13,477$70,234$69,224
Earnings per share:
Basic$1.03$0.40$2.05$2.03
Diluted$1.01$0.39$2.02$1.99
Underwriting ratios:
Loss ratio - current year65.0%61.4%64.7%61.4%
Loss ratio - prior year(3.7)%(2.0)%(0.2)%2.4%
Loss ratio61.3%59.4%64.5%63.8%
Acquisition cost ratio30.4%28.8%29.3%28.4%
Composite ratio91.7%88.2%93.8%92.2%
Underwriting expense ratio4.2%3.0%4.1%3.3%
Combined ratio95.9%91.2%97.9%95.5%

1 The net financial impact associated with changes in the estimate of losses incurred in prior years, which incorporates earned reinstatement premiums assumed and ceded, adjustments to assumed and ceded acquisition costs, and deposit interest income and expense, was an income of $4.6 million and $1.8 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively, and a loss of $1.1 million and $12.2 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively.

2 Net underwriting income is a non-GAAP financial measure. See “Key Financial Measures and Non-GAAP Measures” above for discussion and reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

The following provides further details on the significant variances for Q3 2024 compared to Q3 2023 and for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 (“YTD 2024”) compared to the same period in 2023 (“YTD 2023”).

Overview

Three months ended September 30, 2024

Fully diluted book value per share increased by $1.07 per share, or 6.1%, to $18.72 per share from $17.65 per share at June 30, 2024. Basic book value per share increased by $1.10 per share, or 6.1%, to $19.05 per share from $17.95 per share at June 30, 2024.

Net income was $35.2 million for Q3 2024, compared to net income of $13.5 million reported for Q3 2023.

The developments that most significantly affected our financial performance during Q3 2024, compared to Q3 2023, are summarized below:

Underwriting income: Decreased by $8.3 million due to an increase of 4.7 percentage points to our combined ratio on lower net premiums earned. The increase in our combined ratio was driven by the increase in loss ratio, acquisition cost ratio, and underwriting expense ratio. While the attritional loss ratio for our underwriting portfolio and current year CAT losses were higher in the current quarter than in Q3 2023, this was offset partially by improved prior year loss development. Current year CAT losses contributed 9.3% to our combined ratio, compared to 8.1% in Q3 2023. For further information on CAT losses and prior year loss development, refer to Note 7 -Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves of the Q3 2024 Financials.

Investment income: Increased by $23.0 million primarily driven by our investment in Solasglas, which reported a gain of $19.8 million during Q3 2024, compared to a loss of $1.9 million during Q3 2023. Solasglas generated a net return of 5.2% for Q3 2024 compared to a net return of (0.6)% for Q3 2023.

Corporate expense: Increased by $1.0 million mainly due to an increase in personnel costs, overhead costs, and technology investment to support the business growth we experienced in the last two years.

Foreign exchange gains (losses): $5.8 million foreign exchange gains for Q3 2024, compared to $2.0 million foreign exchange losses in Q3 2023, driven mainly by the strengthening of the pound sterling against the U.S. dollar in Q3 2024.

Other income, net: Increased by $1.5 million due to higher investment income generated on funds withheld by third party Lloyd’s syndicates, reported on a quarterly lag basis.

Nine months ended September 30, 2024

Fully diluted book value per share increased by $1.98 per share, or 11.8%, to $18.72 per share from 16.74 per share at December 31, 2023. Basic book value per share increased by $2.18 per share, or 12.9%, to $19.05 per share from 16.87 per share at December 31, 2023.

Net income was $70.2 million for YTD 2024, compared to net income of $69.2 million reported for YTD 2023.

The developments that most significantly affected our financial performance during YTD 2024, compared to YTD 2023, are summarized below:

Underwriting income: Decreased by $10.4 million due to 2.4 percentage points increase in our combined ratio, offset partially by an increase in net premiums earned. The increase in our combined ratio was driven by the increase in loss ratio, acquisition cost ratio, and underwriting expense ratio. While the current year CAT losses contributed 8.5 percentage points to our combined ratio, compared to 5.1 percentage points for YTD 2023, this was offset partially by improved prior year loss development. For further information on CAT losses and prior year loss development, refer to Note 7 -Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves of the Q3 2024 Financials.

Investment income: Increased by $14.5 million primarily driven by our investment in Solasglas, which reported a gain of $42.4 million during YTD 2024, compared to a gain of $27.8 million during the equivalent period in 2023. Solasglas generated a net return of 11.9% for YTD 2024, compared to a net return of 9.1% for YTD 2023.

Corporate expense: Decreased by $0.5 million mainly due to non-recurring severance costs included in YTD 2023 and lower outside legal costs following the hiring of our new General Counsel in April 2023. This was partially offset by the increase in other personnel and overhead costs as noted for Q3 2024.

Foreign exchange gains (losses): $3.2 million foreign exchange gains for YTD 2024, compared to $7.7 million foreign exchange gains for YTD 2023, driven mainly by a stronger pound sterling movement against the U.S. dollar in YTD 2023.

Other income, net: Increased by $4.2 million due to stronger investment income generated on funds withheld by third party Lloyd’s syndicates, reported on a quarterly lag basis.

Underwriting Results by Segment

The following provides a further discussion of our underwriting results for our Property & Casualty (Re)insurance operating segment for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023.

Gross Premiums Written

Details of gross premiums written are provided in the following table:

Three months ended September 30 · Nine months ended September 30
2024 · 2023 · 2024 · 2023
Property$13,6258.1%$32,94018.0%$61,57811.1%$94,66018.0%
Casualty92,12454.7108,96459.5279,11850.3284,56054.3
Other62,59737.241,17022.5213,88338.6145,25227.7
Total$168,346100.0%$183,074100.0%$554,579100.0%$524,472100.0%

As a result of our underwriting philosophy, the total premiums we write and the mix of premiums between property, casualty, and other business, may vary significantly from period to period depending on the market opportunities we identify.

Our Q3 2024 gross premiums written decreased by $14.7 million, or 8.0%, compared to the equivalent 2023 period.

The following table provides a further analysis of this overall decrease:

Gross Premiums Written
Three months ended September 30, 2024
Increase (decrease) ($ in millions)% changeExplanation
Property$(19.3)(58.6)%Driven predominantly by the non-renewal of a U.S. homeowners’ property treaty on January 1st and a net reduction to estimated ultimate gross premiums for certain treaties.
Casualty$(16.8)(15.5)%Mainly due to the following: •General Liability by $3.2 million, or 10.3%, primarily due to net reduction to estimated ultimate gross premiums for certain deals, coupled with a decrease in our line share for certain non-proportional treaty and quota-share treaties. This was partially offset by favorable rate changes on renewed business and new business.•Multiline by $8.4 million, or 12.3%, driven mainly by non-renewed FAL business on January 1st which contributed $8.9 million to the change in the quarter, partially offset by net growth in premiums written from existing FAL business.•Workers’ Compensation by 3.5 million, or 79.1%, due to timing of renewal for an excess of loss treaty, coupled with the non-renewal of quota share treaties in 2022 a portion of which was written in 2023.•Professional Liability by $1.6 million, or 98.0%, primarily due to non-renewal of certain quota-share treaties.
Other$21.452.0%Driven predominantly by new business in our Marine and Energy class. This was partially offset by $5.2 million, or 30.4%, decrease in our Financial class due to lower premium volume from our surety and transactional liability business.

Our YTD 2024 gross premiums written increased by $30.1 million, or 5.7%, compared to the equivalent 2023 period.

The following table provides a further analysis of this overall increase:

Gross Premiums Written
Nine months ended September 30, 2024
Increase (decrease) ($ in millions)% changeExplanation
Property$(33.1)(34.9)%Same trends as noted for Q3 2024.
Casualty$(5.4)(1.9)%Same trends as noted for Q3 2024, except for General Liability, which increased by $4.1 million, or 5.1%, driven by favorable rate changes in 2024, coupled with growth from 2023 quota share treaties and new business.General Liability and Multi-line classes accounted for 30% and 62%, respectively, of total Casualty, compared to 28% and 62%, respectively, in the same period in 2023.
Other$68.647.2%Driven predominantly by new business in our Marine and Energy class, including Lloyd’s whole account excess of loss treaties. The Financial class also grew as a result of new non-proportional mortgage and financial multiline treaties, partially offset by lower premium volume from our surety and transactional liability business.

Premiums Ceded

For Q3 2024, premiums ceded were $26.6 million, or 15.8% of gross premiums written, compared to $14.8 million, or 8.1% of gross premiums written, for the same quarter in 2023. For YTD 2024, premiums ceded were $64.6 million, or 11.7% of gross premiums written, compared to $35.7 million, or 6.8% of gross premiums written, for YTD 2023.

The increase in both periods was primarily due to the purchase of additional retrocessional coverage to manage our overall exposure to Aviation and Marine and Energy in light of growth in these classes of business during 2024 and to reinstate certain retro excess-of-loss treaties in which the full coverage was presumed exhausted primarily from the Baltimore Bridge loss event in Q1 2024. Additionally, we had an increase in quota share retrocessions for Other Specialty business due to growth from inward premiums.

Net Premiums Written

Details of net premiums written are provided in the following table:

Three months ended September 30 · Nine months ended September 30
2024 · 2023 · 2024 · 2023
Property$9,8196.9%$24,77114.7%$47,8789.8%$77,39715.8%
Casualty84,13459.4103,54261.5261,01553.3275,57856.4
Other47,79533.739,97223.8181,07537.0135,75727.8
Total$141,748100.0%$168,285100.0%$489,968100.0%$488,732100.0%

For Q3 2024 and YTD 2024, net premiums written decreased by $26.5 million, or 15.8%, and increased by $1.2 million or 0.3%, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2023. The movement in net premiums written resulted from the changes in gross premiums written and ceded during the periods as previously noted.

Net Premiums Earned

Details of net premiums earned are provided in the following table:

Three months ended September 30 · Nine months ended September 30
2024 · 2023 · 2024 · 2023
Property$19,13412.6%$24,36214.9%$60,61012.8%$63,85414.3%
Casualty83,07954.793,51457.3263,87255.9259,07558.1
Other49,67132.745,23427.8147,33631.2122,77327.6
Total$151,884100.0%$163,110100.0%$471,818100.0%$445,702100.0%

Net premiums earned for Q3 2024 and YTD 2024, decreased by $11.2 million or 6.9%, and increased by $26.1 million or 5.9%, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2023. The change in net premiums earned is primarily a function of the amount and timing of net premiums written during the current and prior periods.

Loss and LAE Incurred, Net

The components of the loss ratio were as follows:

Three months ended September 30Nine months ended September 30
20242023Increase / (decrease) in loss ratio points20242023Increase / (decrease) in loss ratio points
Current accident year loss ratio65.0%61.4%3.664.7%61.4%3.3
Prior year reserve development ratio(3.7)%(2.0)%(1.7)(0.2)%2.4%(2.6)
Loss ratio61.3%59.4%1.964.5%63.8%0.7

For Q3 2024 and YTD 2024, our total loss ratio increased by 1.9 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2023.

Current accident year loss ratio increased by 3.6 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points for Q3 2024 and YTD 2024, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2023, driven mainly by 1.2 points and 1.9 points increase in CAT losses, respectively, coupled with a change in business mix with higher attritional loss ratio.

For Q3 2024 and YTD 2024, prior year favorable loss development improved by 1.7 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2023. Refer to Note 7 for further details on prior year loss development.

Details of net losses incurred by line of business are provided in the following table:

Three months ended September 30 · Nine months ended September 30
2024 · 2023 · 2024 · 2023
Property$21,50623.1%$13,18213.6%$54,63917.9%$52,11418.4%
Casualty43,79947.063,04465.1162,39753.3173,69061.1
Other27,86029.920,61721.387,48828.758,26820.5
Total$93,165100.0%$96,843100.0%$304,524100.0%$284,072100.0%

The below table summarizes the loss ratios by line of business:

Three months ended September 30Nine months ended September 30
20242023Increase / (decrease) in loss ratio points20242023Increase / (decrease) in loss ratio points
Property112.4%54.1%58.390.1%81.6%8.5
Casualty52.767.4(14.7)61.567.0(5.5)
Other56.145.610.559.447.511.9
Total61.3%59.4%1.964.5%63.8%0.7

The following provides further details on the change in Q3 2024 vs. Q3 2023.

Net Losses Incurred
Three months ended September 30, 2024
Increase / (decrease) in loss ratio points
Property58.3Driven by 63.3 points of higher current year CAT loss events mainly from Hurricane Helene and additional severe U.S. convective storms. This was partially offset by favorable prior year loss development.
Casualty(14.7)Driven mainly by $7.6 million of prior year favorable loss development, compared to $8.6 million of prior year adverse loss development in Q3 2023, which contributed 18.3 points improvement to the overall decrease in loss ratio. The Q3 2024 prior year favorable loss development was mainly from our general liability class (2020-2022 underwriting years); whereas for the same period in 2023, the adverse loss development was related to legacy motor, workers’ compensation and professional liability program.
Other10.5Driven by $2.4 million of prior year adverse loss development, compared to $9.7 million of prior year favorable loss development in Q3 2023, which contributed 26.2 points to the overall increase in loss ratio. The Q3 2024 prior year adverse loss development was mainly from marine and energy business across multiple years (2020-2023); whereas for the same period in 2023, the favorable loss development was related mainly to marine and energy, cyber, and group medical classes. Offsetting the above increase, non-natural CAT losses were 12.7 points lower in the current period compared to the prior year period.

The following provides further details on the change in YTD 2024 vs. YTD 2023.

Net Losses Incurred
Nine months ended September 30, 2024
Increase / (decrease) in loss ratio points
Property8.5Driven by 11.5 points of higher current year CAT loss events. For the YTD 2024, these were driven mainly by the Baltimore Bridge collapse, Hurricane Helene, and U.S. tornados (including severe convective storms), whereas for YTD 2023 the CAT losses were driven mainly by the Turkey earthquake, New Zealand Cyclone Gabrielle, and U.S. tornados (including severe convective storms).Additionally, we recognized $4.5 million of prior year adverse loss development relating primarily to the U.S. severe convective storms in 2023, compared to $1.1 million of prior year favorable loss development in YTD 2023. This contributed 10.9 points to the increase in loss ratio.The above was partially offset by the change in business mix, with Commercial Property accounting for 73% of total premium earned, compared to 48% in the prior period. This class has a lower attritional loss rate than for Personal Property and Motor classes of business.
Casualty(5.5)Due to $0.4 million of prior year favorable loss development compared to $22.3 million of prior year adverse loss development in YTD 2023, which contributed 8.2 points improvement to the overall decrease in loss ratio. The YTD 2023 prior year adverse loss development was related to same classes as previously noted for Q3 2023. Additionally, the lack of CAT losses associated with this line of business in YTD 2024 also contributed to the overall reduction in loss ratio.
Other11.9Due to the lower prior year favorable loss development compared to Q3 2023, which contributed 5.0 points to the overall increase in loss ratio. For YTD 2024, the prior year favorable loss development of $5.1 million was driven primarily by our mortgage, cyber, and energy classes; whereas in YTD 2023 the prior year favorable loss development was related to the same classes as previously noted for Q3 2023.Additionally, the overall loss ratio increased by 5.1 points due to higher CAT losses compared to prior year period. The increase in CAT losses was driven mainly by the Baltimore bridge collapse in Q1 2024.

Acquisition Costs, Net

For Q3 2024 and YTD 2024, our total acquisition costs decreased by 1.6% to $46.2 million, and increased by 9.1% to $138.2 million, respectively, compared to the same periods in 2023. The YTD 2024 increase was mainly due to growth in net premiums earned. The acquisition cost ratios by line of business were as follows:

Three months ended September 30Nine months ended September 30
20242023Increase / (decrease) in acquisition cost ratio points20242023Increase / (decrease) in acquisition cost ratio points
Property19.9%17.7%2.2%17.1%18.5%(1.4)%
Casualty34.031.92.132.631.01.6
Other28.428.20.228.328.20.1
Total30.4%28.8%1.6%29.3%28.4%0.9%

The following provides further details on the change in Q3 2024 vs. Q3 2023.

Change in Acquisition Cost Ratios
Three months ended September 30, 2024
Increase / (decrease) in acquisition cost ratio pointsExplanation
Property2.2Driven mainly by the profit commission associated with a significant quota share treaty in our Commercial Property class.
Casualty2.1Primarily due to higher than previously estimated acquisition costs for certain 2023 and 2024 FAL business within our Multi-line class. This was partially offset primarily by a lower acquisition cost ratio for General Liability, driven mainly by a reduction in profit commission for a significant Innovation quota share treaty.
Other0.2No significant change.

The following provides further details on the change in YTD 2024 vs. YTD 2023.

Change in Acquisition Cost Ratios
Nine months ended September 30, 2024
Increase / (decrease) in acquisition cost ratio pointsExplanation
Property(1.4)Driven mainly by the change in business mix where we have reduced the premium volume in our Personal Property class as result of not renewing a large U.S. homeowners’ property quota share treaty. This treaty had a higher acquisition cost ratio than our Commercial Property business.
Casualty1.6Same trends as noted for Q3 2024, coupled with the change in business mix. The increase was partially offset by lower acquisition costs from the Motor Liability class due to a higher proportion of excess of loss treaties, which have lower ceding commission rate than quota share reinsurance treaties, in addition to the lower acquisition cost ratio from the General Liability class as noted for Q3 2024.
Other0.1No significant change.

Ratio Analysis

The following table provides our underwriting ratios by line of business for the respective periods:

Three months ended September 30 · Three months ended September 30
20242023
PropertyCasualtyOtherTotalPropertyCasualtyOtherTotal
Loss ratio112.4%52.7%56.1%61.3%54.1%67.4%45.6%59.4%
Acquisition cost ratio19.934.028.430.417.731.928.228.8
Composite ratio132.3%86.7%84.5%91.7%71.8%99.3%73.8%88.2%
Underwriting expense ratio4.23.0
Combined ratio95.9%91.2%

Our combined ratio increased by 4.7 percentage points for the current quarter compared to Q3 2023 driven by higher loss ratio, acquisition cost ratio and underwriting expense ratio. The underwriting expense ratio increased primarily due to an increase in fixed underwriting expenses - see G&A Expenses below.

Nine months ended September 30 · Nine months ended September 30
20242023
PropertyCasualtyOtherTotalPropertyCasualtyOtherTotal
Loss ratio90.1%61.5%59.4%64.5%81.6%67.0%47.5%63.8%
Acquisition cost ratio17.132.628.329.318.531.028.228.4
Composite ratio107.2%94.1%87.7%93.8%100.1%98.0%75.7%92.2%
Underwriting expense ratio4.13.3
Combined ratio97.9%95.5%

Our combined ratio increased by 2.4 percentage points for YTD 2024 compared to same period in 2023 for same reason as noted for Q3 2024.

General and Administrative (“G&A”) Expenses

The breakdown of our G&A expenses between underwriting and corporate functions was as follows:

Three months ended September 30Nine months ended September 30
2024202320242023
Underwriting expenses$6,073$4,639$18,223$14,046
Corporate expenses4,2533,26613,33413,820
General and administrative expenses$10,326$7,905$31,557$27,866

G&A increased by 30.6% for Q3 2024, compared to Q3 2023. The increase was driven by:

Underwriting expenses: Increased by $1.4 million or 30.9%, predominantly due to an increase in headcount to drive business growth, coupled with an increase in professional fees, office expenses, and outsourced services relating to underwriting activities.

Corporate expenses: Increased by $1.0 million or 30.2%, predominantly due to an increase in personnel costs, including share-based compensation costs, coupled with an increase in professional fees and office overhead costs, including information technology systems and support.

G&A increased by 13.2% for YTD 2024, compared to same period in 2023. The increase was driven by:

Underwriting expenses: Increased by $4.2 million or 29.7%, for the same reason as noted for Q3 2024. Further, YTD 2023 included a bad debt charge of $0.6 million, with no bad debt charge during YTD 2024.

Corporate expenses: Decreased by $0.5 million or 3.5%, driven mainly by non-recurring severance costs included in YTD 2023 and lower outside legal costs following the hiring of our new General Counsel in April 2023. This was partially offset by an increase in personnel costs, including share-based compensation costs, and office overhead costs.

Total Investment Income

A summary of our total investment income is as follows:

Three months ended September 30Nine months ended September 30
2024202320242023
Interest and dividend income, net of withholding taxes and other expenses8,2449,513$24,935$27,004
Net realized and unrealized gains on other investments (see Note 4)—(2,555)(324)(2,299)
Net investment-related income$8,244$6,958$24,611$24,705
Share of Solasglas' net income (loss) (see Note 3)19,844(1,853)42,42227,791
Total investment income$28,088$5,105$67,033$52,496

Net investment-related income

Our net investment-related income increased by 18.5% compared to Q3 2023, and by a nominal change compared to YTD 2023, mainly driven by lower net realized and unrealized gains (losses) from our Innovation portfolio. This was partially offset by the decrease in interest income earned from restricted cash and cash equivalents mainly due to the decrease in the outstanding collateral balance during both periods.

Share of Solasglas’ net income

For Q3 2024 and YTD 2024, Solasglas reported a net gain of 5.2% and 11.9%, respectively, compared to a net loss of 0.6% and a net gain of 9.1% for Q3 2023 and YTD 2023, respectively. The following table provides a breakdown of the gross and net investment return for Solasglas.

Three months ended September 30Nine months ended September 30
2024202320242023
Long portfolio gains (losses)9.9%(4.1)%13.8%22.8%
Short portfolio gains (losses)(5.0)1.7(3.5)(12.8)
Macro gains (losses)1.22.84.12.6
Other income and expenses 1(0.4)(1.0)(1.2)(2.5)
Gross investment return5.7%(0.6)%13.2%10.1%
Net investment return 15.2%(0.6)%11.9%9.1%

1 “Other income and expenses” excludes performance compensation but includes management fees. “Net investment return” incorporates both of these amounts. For further information about management fees and performance compensation, refer to Note 3.

For Q3 2024, the significant contributors to Solasglas’ investment return were long positions in Green Brick Partners (GRBK), gold, and Solvay (Belgium: SOLB). The largest detractors were a short basket to hedge home building exposure, equity index hedges, and a separate housing-related, single-name short position.

For YTD 2024, the significant contributors to Solasglas’ investment return were long positions in GRBK, gold, and SOLB. The largest detractors were long positions in ODP Corporation (ODP), Brighthouse Financial (BHF) and a single-name short position.

Each month, we post on our website (www.greenlightre.com) the returns from our investment in Solasglas.

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The text of this filing, as the company filed it with the SEC, without its images or exhibits. This is not investment advice.