PACKAGING CORP OF AMERICA

Trade publications reported North American industry-wide corrugated products shipments were down (1.8%) in 2025, compared to 2024. Reported industry containerboard production decreased (4.5%) compared to 2024, and reported industry containerboard inventories at the end of 2025 were approximately 2.8 million tons, up 1.3% compared to 2024. Reported containerboard export shipments decreased (11.4%) compared to 2024. In February 2025, index prices increased $40 per ton for linerboard and for corrugating medium.

The market for communication papers competes heavily with electronic data transmission and document storage alternatives. Increasing shifts to these alternatives have reduced usage of traditional print media and communication papers. Trade publications reported North American uncoated freesheet paper shipments decreased (9.6%) in 2025, compared to 2024. Average prices reported by a trade publication for cut size office papers were higher by $47 per ton, or 3.3%, in 2025 compared to 2024. Reported index prices increased $30 per ton for cut size office papers and for offset printing papers in February 2025 and $10 per ton in April 2025.

Outlook

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, in our Packaging segment, we expect higher per-day volume in our legacy corrugated products plants over last year, reflecting improving demand, though shipment volume is seasonally slower than the fourth quarter and we experienced some disruption in shipments from weather events earlier in the quarter. We will produce less containerboard than the fourth quarter with two fewer operating days in the first quarter, a scheduled maintenance outage at our Counce, TN mill and lower production at the reconfigured Wallula, WA mill. Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices will be higher with an improved corrugated product mix throughout the quarter and we expect to benefit slightly from our previously announced containerboard price increases beginning in March. Export volume is expected to be slightly higher and prices are expected to be flat to slightly down. In the Paper segment, we forecast slightly lower volume with two less mill operating days and prices and mix to be slightly lower. With the exception of fiber prices, we expect price inflation across most of our direct, indirect and fixed operating and converting costs. In addition, wood, energy, and chemical costs will also increase due to winter conditions negatively impacting usages and yields for these items. Our cost structure will begin to benefit from the Wallula reconfiguration late in the first quarter. Labor and benefits costs will be higher due to timing-related items that occur at the beginning of a new year for annual increases, the restart of payroll taxes, and share-based compensation expenses. Freight will be slightly higher and we expect slightly lower depreciation expense. Scheduled outage expenses will be lower and we assume a lower corporate tax rate. Considering these items, we expect first quarter earnings to be lower than the fourth quarter of 2025.