METLIFE INC

Our outlook reflects continued uncertainty around inflation and unemployment in 2026. We expect the U.S. dollar to remain relatively stable in 2026 compared to 2025.

Based on the forward yield curve as of December 31, 2025, we expect long-term interest rates to moderately rise in 2026 with the yield curve steepening, as short-term interest rates decline. We believe that our investment portfolio is highly diversified and positioned to perform well in a variety of economic scenarios. See “— Industry Trends — Impact of Market Interest Rates” for discussion of the mitigating actions the Company has taken to reduce interest rate sensitivity, as market interest rates are a key driver of our results.

As of December 31, 2025, we had $3.6 billion of cash and liquid assets at the holding companies which is within our $3.0 billion to $4.0 billion holding company cash target. In 2026, we expect to maintain this holding company cash target. We also returned a total of approximately $4.4 billion to shareholders in 2025, and we remain on track to generate approximately $25.0 billion in free cash flow over the five-year period of 2025 to 2029.

Our continued capital stress testing and longstanding commitment to liquidity position us to withstand a variety of economic conditions. We do not expect any material liquidity deficiencies, and we expect to remain able to comply with the financial covenants of our credit agreements. See “— Liquidity and Capital Resources.” We will continue reviewing accounting estimates, asset valuations and various financial scenarios for capital and liquidity implications. See “— Investments — Current Environment” and “Risk Factors” for additional information.

Assuming (i) interest rates follow the observable forward yield curves as of December 31, 2025, including a 10-year U.S. Treasury rate of 4.40% at December 31, 2026, (ii) S&P 500 equity index annual return of 5%, and (iii) private equity annual returns of 9% in 2026 which would contribute to $1.6 billion (pre-tax) of total estimated variable investment income for full year 2026; we expect to maintain the two-year average annual ratio of free cash flow to adjusted earnings, excluding total notable items, at 65% to 75%.

Further, based on the aforementioned assumptions, we are maintaining our near-term annual targets for (i) adjusted return on equity, excluding total notable items, of 15%-17%, and (ii) double-digit adjusted earnings per share growth, excluding total notable items.

Based on our continued focus on expense discipline and our overall efficiency mindset, we are committed to achieving a direct expense ratio target, excluding total notable items related to direct expenses and pension risk transfers, of (i) 12.1% for 2026 and (ii) 11.3% in 2029.

Furthermore, we also remain fully committed to our New Frontier strategy, which was introduced at our December 2024 Investor Day.

Our outlook relies on the accuracy of our assumptions about future economic and business conditions, which can be affected by known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. We continually review our assumptions, implement mitigation plans, and take precautions. We may revise our outlook as we obtain more information regarding economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other events, and the impact of these events on our business operations, investment portfolio, derivatives, financial results and financial condition.