METLIFE INC
For the period ended Dec 31, 2023. Filed Feb 16, 2024.
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FY2023 · Filed Feb 16, 2024
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Industry Trends
We continue to be impacted by the changing global financial and economic environment that has been affecting the industry.
Financial and Economic Environment
Our business and results of operations are materially affected by conditions in the global financial markets and the economy generally due to our market presence in numerous countries, our large investment portfolio and the sensitivity of our insurance liabilities and derivatives to changing market factors.
We are closely monitoring political and economic conditions that might contribute to global market volatility and impact our business operations, investment portfolio and derivatives, such as global inflation, supply chain disruptions, acts of war and banking sector volatility. We are also monitoring the imposition of tariffs, sanctions or other barriers to international trade, changes to international trade agreements, and their potential impacts on our business, results of operations and financial condition. See “— Impact of Market Interest Rates — Effects of Inflation,” and “— Investments — Current Environment.”
Governments and central banks around the world are using fiscal and monetary policies to address uncertain economic conditions. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee took various actions in 2023 to promote economic stability and combat inflation, including raising interest rates, although rates have remained steady over the last few months, reflecting lower inflation. The European Central Bank and Bank of England have been taking similar actions. In contrast, the Bank of Japan (“BoJ”) has mostly kept its monetary policy settings on hold, reflecting a more cautious view on growth and inflation. The Japanese yen has weakened against the U.S. dollar as monetary policy divergence has widened between the BoJ and the Federal Reserve Board.
Impact of Market Interest Rates
Market interest rates are a key driver of our results. Increases and decreases in such rates, as well as extended periods of stagnation, may impact our business and investments in various ways.
Effects of Inflation
Management believes that while inflation has not had a material effect on the Company’s consolidated results of operations, except insofar as inflation may affect interest rates, both rising interest rates and inflation will have a neutral to modest impact on our business. See “— Impact of a Rising Interest Rate Environment” and “— Interest Rate Scenarios.”
An increase in inflation could affect our business in several ways. In our group life and disability businesses, premiums increase as compensation levels of our customers’ employees increase. However, during inflationary periods with rising interest rates, the value of fixed income investments falls which could increase realized and unrealized losses, resulting in additional deferred tax assets that may not be realizable. Inflation also increases expenses for labor and other costs, potentially putting pressure on profitability if such costs cannot be passed through in our product prices. Prolonged and elevated inflation could adversely affect the financial markets and the economy generally, and dispelling it may require governments to pursue a restrictive fiscal and monetary policy, which could constrain overall economic activity, inhibit revenue growth and reduce the number of attractive investment opportunities.
Impact of a Sustained Low Interest Rate Environment
Sustained periods of low U.S. interest rates may cause us to:
Reduce the difference between interest credited to policyholders and interest earned on supporting assets (“gross margin”);
Reinvest investment proceeds in lower yielding assets and experience higher frequency prepayment or redemption of assets in our portfolio;
Increase our reserves related to policy liabilities and potentially impair intangible assets;
Reduce interest expense, change pension and other post-retirement benefit calculations, and change derivative cash flows and market values;
Change our product offerings, design features, crediting rates and sales mix; and
Experience changing policyholder behavior, including surrender or withdrawal activity.
For additional discussion on gross margin and interest rate assumptions, as well as the potential impact of low interest rates, see “— Results of Operations — Consolidated Results — Year Ended December 31, 2023 Compared with the Year Ended December 31, 2022 — Actuarial Assumption Review;” “Risk Factors — Economic Environment and Capital Markets Risks — We May Face Difficult Economic Conditions — Interest Rate Risks;” “Risk Factors — Business Risks — We May Be Required to Impair VOBA, VODA or VOCRA;” “Risk Factors — Business Risks — We May Be Required to Recognize an Impairment of Our Goodwill or Other Long-Lived Assets or to Establish a Valuation Allowance Against Our Deferred Income Tax Assets;” and “Risk Factors — Business Risks — We May Face Volatility, Higher Risk Management Costs, and Increased Counterparty Risk Due to Guarantees Within Certain of Our Products.”
Impact of a Rising Interest Rate Environment
Periods of rising U.S. interest rates may cause us to:
Reinvest investment proceeds in higher yielding assets and experience lower frequency prepayment or redemption of assets in our portfolio;
Decrease the value of our reserves related to policy liabilities;
Increase interest expense, change pension and other post-retirement benefit calculations, and change derivative cash flows and market values; and
Change our product offerings, design features, crediting rates and sales mix.
For additional discussion on the potential impact of rising interest rates, see “Risk Factors — Investment Risks — We May Change Our Securities and Investments Valuation, or Take Allowances and Impairments on Our Investments, or Change Our Methodologies, Estimations, and Assumptions.”
Management Actions
To manage the impact of a changing U.S. interest rate environment, we maintain diversification across products, distribution channels, and geographies while proactively evaluating interest rate and product strategies. In addition, we apply disciplined asset/liability management (“ALM”) strategies, including the use of derivatives. Our ability to take such actions may be limited by competition, regulatory approval requirements, or minimum crediting rate guarantees and may not match the timing or magnitude of interest rate changes.
In addition to proactive management strategies, businesses within our Latin America, EMEA, and Asia (exclusive of our Japan business) segments help manage impacts to our consolidated results given their limited U.S. interest rate sensitivity.
For additional discussion on interest rate risk management and our ability to change interest crediting rates or dividend scales, see “Risk Factors — Economic Environment and Capital Markets Risks — We May Face Difficult Economic Conditions — Interest Rate Risks;” “— Risk Management;” and “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk — Management of Market Risk Exposures,” as well as Notes 5 and 6 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Interest Rate Scenarios
To illustrate our sensitivity to U.S. interest rates, we compared the outcome of two hypothetical interest rate environments (the “Declining Interest Rate Scenario” and “Rising Interest Rate Scenario”) relative to our baseline economic assumptions (the “Base Scenario”) through 2026.
The Declining Interest Rate Scenario assumes U.S. interest rates for all maturities decline immediately on January 1, 2024 by 50 basis points compared to the Base Scenario through 2026. The Rising Interest Rate Scenario assumes U.S. interest rates rise immediately on January 1, 2024 by 50 basis points through 2026. Other than changing U.S. interest rates through 2026, all other economic assumptions are equivalent in the Base Scenario, Declining Interest Rate Scenario and Rising Interest Rate Scenario.
The following table compares the most relevant interest rate assumptions for the dates indicated:
| Years Ended December 31, | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |||||||
| Base Scenario | Declining Interest Rate Scenario | Rising Interest Rate Scenario | Base Scenario | Declining Interest Rate Scenario | Rising Interest Rate Scenario | Base Scenario | Declining Interest Rate Scenario | Rising Interest Rate Scenario | |
| SOFR | 3.99% | 3.49% | 4.49% | 3.08% | 2.58% | 3.58% | 3.03% | 2.53% | 3.53% |
| 10-year U.S. Treasury | 3.84% | 3.34% | 4.34% | 3.93% | 3.43% | 4.43% | 4.04% | 3.54% | 4.54% |
| 30-year U.S. Treasury | 3.97% | 3.47% | 4.47% | 3.97% | 3.47% | 4.47% | 3.99% | 3.49% | 4.49% |
Hypothetical Impact to Net Derivative Gains (Losses), Market Risk Benefit Remeasurement (Gains) Losses and Adjusted Earnings
We estimate a net favorable impact to net derivative gains (losses) for 2024 through 2026 for the hypothetical Declining Interest Rate Scenario. We hold significant positions in long-duration receive-fixed U.S. interest rate swaps, which are most sensitive to the 10-year and 30-year swap rates, to hedge reinvestment risk. We estimate a net unfavorable impact to net derivative gains (losses) for 2024 through 2026 for the hypothetical Rising Interest Rate Scenario.
We estimate a net unfavorable impact to market risk benefit remeasurement (gains) losses for 2024 through 2026 for the hypothetical Declining Interest Rate Scenario. Under the hypothetical Declining Interest Rate Scenario, we expect the market risk benefit (“MRB”) reserves to increase due to discounting the future cash flows at a lower rate. We estimate a net favorable impact to market risk benefit remeasurement (gains) losses for 2024 through 2026 for the hypothetical Rising Interest Rate Scenario. Under the hypothetical Rising Interest Rate Scenario, we expect the MRB reserves to decrease due to discounting the future cash flows at a higher rate.
We estimate a net unfavorable impact to consolidated adjusted earnings for 2024 through 2026 for the hypothetical Declining Interest Rate Scenario. The negative impact of reinvesting cash flows in lower yielding assets is partially offset by lowering interest crediting rates and dividend scales on products, and additional derivative income. We estimate a net favorable impact to consolidated adjusted earnings for 2024 through 2026 for the hypothetical Rising Interest Rate Scenario. The positive impact of reinvesting cash flows in higher yielding assets is partially offset by increased interest crediting rates and dividend scales on products and lower derivative income.
The following table summarizes the hypothetical impact on net derivative gains (losses), market risk benefit remeasurement (gains) losses and adjusted earnings for certain of our segments, as well as Corporate & Other, for the Declining Interest Rate Scenario:
| Years Ended December 31, | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| (In millions, net of income tax) | |||
| Revenues | |||
| Net Derivative Gains (Losses) | $292 | $(50) | $(23) |
| Expenses | |||
| Market Risk Benefit Remeasurement (Gains) Losses | $545 | $(7) | $(10) |
| Adjusted Earnings | |||
| Group Benefits | $3 | $(12) | $(24) |
| RIS | (26) | (20) | (18) |
| Asia (Japan only) | (10) | (24) | (36) |
| MetLife Holdings | (15) | (23) | (41) |
| Corporate & Other | (2) | (17) | (25) |
| Total Adjusted Earnings Impact | $(50) | $(96) | $(144) |
The following table summarizes the hypothetical impact on net derivative gains (losses), market risk benefit remeasurement (gains) losses and adjusted earnings for certain of our segments, as well as Corporate & Other, for the Rising Interest Rate Scenario:
| Years Ended December 31, | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| (In millions, net of income tax) | |||
| Revenues | |||
| Net Derivative Gains (Losses) | $(177) | $25 | $8 |
| Expenses | |||
| Market Risk Benefit Remeasurement (Gains) Losses | $(466) | $7 | $10 |
| Adjusted Earnings | |||
| Group Benefits | $(3) | $12 | $24 |
| RIS | 24 | 21 | 20 |
| Asia (Japan only) | 10 | 24 | 38 |
| MetLife Holdings | 28 | 26 | 41 |
| Corporate & Other | 5 | 19 | 25 |
| Total Adjusted Earnings Impact | $64 | $102 | $148 |
Segments and Corporate & Other
The primary drivers impacting certain of our segments, as well as Corporate & Other, in the hypothetical interest rate scenarios are summarized below. Our Latin America, EMEA, and Asia (exclusive of our Japan business) segments are excluded given their limited U.S. interest rate sensitivity. For additional information regarding account values subject to minimum crediting rate guarantees, the maturity profile of fixed maturity securities available-for-sale (“AFS”), and the yield on invested assets, see “— Investments,” and Notes 5 and 11 of the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Declining Interest Rate Scenario. Our group life insurance products are primarily renewable term policies. This provides repricing flexibility to mitigate the negative impact of reinvesting in lower yielding assets.
Our retained asset accounts experience gross margin compression due to minimum crediting rate guarantees. Additionally, we experience gross margin compression from our disability policy claim reserves for which crediting rates cannot be reduced. We use interest rate derivatives to mitigate gross margin compression for both products.
Gross margin compression is limited for our group disability products, which are generally renewable term policies allowing for crediting rate adjustments at renewal based on the retrospective experience rating and the prevailing interest rate assumptions.
Rising Interest Rate Scenario. We reinvest our cash flows from our group insurance products in higher yielding assets, mitigating the impact of (i) higher interest crediting rates on, primarily, our retained asset accounts, and (ii) lower income from our derivative positions used to mitigate low interest rate margin compression.
Retirement and Income Solutions
This business contains both short- and long-duration products consisting of capital market products, pension risk transfers, structured settlements, and other benefit funding products.
The two hypothetical interest rate scenarios do not assume any additional ALM actions we may take to preserve margins.
Declining Interest Rate Scenario. A significant portion of short-duration products are managed on a floating rate basis, which mitigates gross margin compression. Our long-duration products have very predictable cash flows and we use both interest rate derivatives and asset/liability duration matching to mitigate gross margin compression. These mitigating strategies partially offset the negative impact of reinvesting in lower yielding assets. Based on our investment portfolios and expected cash flows, only a small portion of invested assets are subject to reinvestment risk through 2026.
Rising Interest Rate Scenario. Our long-duration products, which have very predictable cash flows, benefit from reinvesting in higher yielding assets, which is partially offset by the negative impact of lower income from derivative positions designed to protect against a low interest rate environment. A significant portion of our short-duration products are managed on a floating rate basis. The negative impact of higher crediting rates on these short-duration products is partially offset by higher income from derivative positions designed to protect against a rising interest rate environment.
Asia (Japan Only)
Declining Interest Rate Scenario. Our Japan business offers traditional life insurance and accident & health products, many of which are U.S. dollar denominated. We experience gross margin compression to the extent our investment portfolios are U.S. interest rate sensitive and we are unable to offset the impact by lowering interest crediting rates. Additionally, we manage interest rate risk on our life products through a combination of product design features and ALM strategies.
Our Japan business also offers U.S. dollar denominated annuities which are predominantly single premium products with crediting rates set upon issuance. This allows for tightly managing product ALM, cash flows and net spreads, which mitigates interest rate risk.
Rising Interest Rate Scenario. For U.S. dollar denominated products, higher reinvestment rates on cash flows from these products more than offset the negative impacts of (i) higher interest crediting rates on such products, and (ii) lower income from derivative positions designed to protect against a low interest rate environment.
Declining Interest Rate Scenario. Our interest rate sensitive life products include traditional and universal life products. Since most of our traditional life insurance is participating, we can mitigate gross margin compression by adjusting the applicable dividend scale. For our universal life products, we manage interest rate risk through a combination of product design features and ALM strategies, including the use of interest rate derivatives. Although we are able to mitigate gross margin compression by lowering interest crediting rates on certain in-force universal life policies, these actions may be partially offset by increased liabilities for policies with secondary guarantees.
Our annuity products can experience gross margin compression primarily from deferred annuities with minimum crediting rate guarantees. While most of these contracts are either at or slightly above their minimum crediting rate, we use interest rate derivatives to manage the gross margin compression risk.
Our long-term care business experiences gross margin compression as we cannot reduce interest crediting rates for established claim reserves. Long-term care policies are guaranteed renewable, and rates may be adjusted on a class basis with regulatory approval to reflect emerging experience. We review the discount rate assumptions and other assumptions associated with our long-term care claim reserves no less frequently than annually and, with respect to interest rates, set the discount rate based on the prevailing interest rate environment.
Our retained asset accounts experience gross margin compression due to minimum crediting rate guarantees. Most of these accounts are at their minimum crediting rates and therefore we use interest rate derivatives to mitigate gross margin compression.
Based on our investment portfolios and cash flow estimates, approximately 6% of our invested assets each year are subject to reinvestment risk through 2026.
Rising Interest Rate Scenario. Higher reinvestment rates on cash flows, over time, more than offset the negative impacts of (i) higher interest crediting rates, and (ii) lower income from derivative positions designed to protect against a low interest rate environment.
Corporate & Other contains the surplus investment portfolios used to fund capital and liquidity needs, certain reinsurance agreements, collateral financing arrangements, and our outstanding debt and preferred securities. For purposes of the two hypothetical interest rate scenarios, the impact on pension and postretirement plan expenses is included within Corporate & Other and not allocated across segments.
Declining Interest Rate Scenario. The negative impact of reinvesting in lower yielding assets, over time, more than offsets the positive impact of lower interest expense on debt, preferred stock dividends and lower pension expense. Although low interest rates result in pension and other postretirement benefit liabilities increasing, the impact is more than offset by the corresponding returns on fixed income investments and results in lower expenses.
Rising Interest Rate Scenario. The positive impact of reinvesting in higher yielding assets, over time, more than offsets the negative impact of higher interest expense on debt, preferred stock dividends and higher pension expense. Although higher interest rates result in pension and other postretirement benefit liabilities decreasing, the impact is more than offset by the corresponding returns on fixed income investments and results in higher expenses.
Competitive Pressures
The life insurance industry remains highly competitive. See “Business — Competition.” Product development is focused on differentiation leading to more intense competition with respect to product features and services. Certain of the industry’s products can be quite homogeneous and subject to intense price competition. Cost reduction efforts are a priority for industry players, with benefits resulting in price adjustments to favor customers and reinvestment capacity. Larger companies have the ability to invest in brand equity, product development, technology optimization, risk management, and innovation, which are among the fundamentals for sustained profitable growth in the life insurance industry. Insurers are focused on their core businesses, specifically in markets where they can achieve scale. Insurers are increasingly seeking alternative sources of revenue; there is a focus on monetization of assets, fee-based services, and opportunities to offer comprehensive solutions, which include providing value-added services along with traditional products. Financial strength and flexibility and technology modernization are prerequisites for sustainable growth in the life insurance industry. Larger market participants tend to have the capacity to invest in analytics, distribution, and information technology and have the ability to leverage the capabilities of new digital entrants. There is a shift in distribution from proprietary to third-party models in mature markets, due to the lower cost structure. Evolving customer expectations are having a significant impact on the competitive environment as insurers strive to offer the superior customer service demanded by an increasingly sophisticated industry client base. Rising demands from stakeholders to address ESG issues have resulted in insurers expanding their sustainability efforts. Legislative and other changes affecting the regulatory environment can also affect the competitive environment within the life insurance industry and within the broader financial services industry. See “Business — Regulation.” In addition to financial strength, technological efficiency and organizational agility, we believe that the ability to adapt to changes in the competitive environment as a result of global market volatility, changing interest rates and uncertain economic conditions is a significant differentiator to success in the life insurance industry and the broader financial services industry, and we are well positioned to compete in this environment.
Regulatory Developments
In the U.S., our life insurance companies are regulated primarily at the state level, with some products and services also subject to federal regulation. As life insurers introduce new and often more complex products, regulators refine capital requirements and introduce new reserving standards for the life insurance industry. Laws and regulations recently adopted or currently under review can potentially impact the statutory reserve and capital requirements of the industry. Regulators have also undertaken market and sales practices reviews of several markets or products, including equity-indexed annuities, variable annuities and group products. See “Business — Regulation,” “Risk Factors — Economic Environment and Capital Markets Risks — Our Statutory Life Insurance Reserve Financings Costs May Increase, and We May Find Limited Market Capacity for New Financings” and “Risk Factors — Regulatory and Legal Risks — Changes in Laws or Regulation, or in Supervisory and Enforcement Policies, May Reduce Our Profitability, Limit Our Growth, or Otherwise Adversely Affect Us.”
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