METLIFE INC

Our outlook reflects continued uncertainty around inflation and unemployment in 2024. We expect the U.S. dollar to stabilize around current levels.

Based on the forward yield curve as of December 31, 2023, we expect long-term interest rates to remain largely unchanged in 2024 with the yield curve steepening, as short-term interest rates decline. We believe that our investment portfolio is highly diversified and positioned to perform well in a variety of economic scenarios. See “— Industry Trends — Impact of Market Interest Rates” for discussion of the mitigating actions the Company has taken to reduce interest rate sensitivity, as market interest rates are a key driver of our results.

As of December 31, 2023, we had $5.2 billion of cash and liquid assets at the holding companies which is above the high end of our $3.0 billion to $4.0 billion holding company cash target. In 2024, we expect to maintain this holding company cash target.

Our continued capital stress testing and longstanding commitment to liquidity position us to withstand a variety of economic conditions. We do not expect any material liquidity deficiencies, and we expect to remain able to comply with the financial covenants of our credit agreements. See “— Liquidity and Capital Resources.” We will continue reviewing accounting estimates, asset valuations and various financial scenarios for capital and liquidity implications. See “— Investments — Current Environment” and “Risk Factors” for additional information.

Assuming (i) interest rates following the observable forward yield curves as of December 31, 2023, including a 10-year U.S. Treasury rate of 3.84% at December 31, 2024, (ii) S&P 500 equity index annual return of 5% over the near-term, and (iii) private equity annual returns between 7% to 10% over the near-term which is below our long-term historical returns of 12% and assumes continued pressure in the first quarter of 2024 before trending higher; we expect to maintain the two-year average annual ratio of free cash flow to adjusted earnings, excluding total notable items, at 65% to 75%.

Further, based on the aforementioned assumptions, we are maintaining our target for adjusted return on equity, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income (“AOCI”) other than foreign currency translation adjustments (“FCTA”) and total notable items, of 13% to 15% over the near-term. Lastly, we expect to exceed our goals to generate approximately $20.0 billion of free cash flow and make available an additional $1.0 billion to invest in growth and innovation, over the time period of 2020 through 2024.

Based on our continued focus on expense discipline, building capacity to reinvest in growth initiatives and our overall efficiency mindset, we are lowering our full year direct expense ratio target, excluding total notable items related to direct expenses and pension risk transfers, from 12.6% to 12.3% over the near-term.

Our outlook relies on the accuracy of our assumptions about future economic and business conditions, which can be affected by known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. We continually review our assumptions, implement mitigation plans, and take precautions. We may revise our outlook as we obtain more information regarding economic conditions, regulatory changes, and other events, and the impact of these events on our business operations, investment portfolio, derivatives, financial results and financial condition.