Invesco DB Energy Fund
For the period ended Dec 31, 2023. Filed Feb 23, 2024.
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FY2023 · Filed Feb 23, 2024
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Item 1A. RISK FACTORS
The Fund’s trading of futures contracts takes place in very volatile markets. In the past, oil markets have experienced extreme volatility. For example, the WTI futures contract for May 2020 physical delivery reached negative prices on April 20, 2020. If an Index Contract currently held by the Fund, or any other futures contract held by the Fund at a future date, were to reach a negative price, investors in the Fund could lose a significant portion of, or their entire, investment.
Market Risks
Weather and other environmental conditions;
Acts of God;
War or acts of terrorism; and
Investing in Oil Markets Has Unique Risks, As Demonstrated in 2020.
The oil markets are characterized by extreme volatility. As the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic-related price volatility was realized by various sectors of the financial and commodity markets, unusual developments in the crude oil markets occurred. A collapse of demand for fuel following government restrictions on travel created an oversupply of crude oil production that rapidly filled most available oil storage facilities. As a result, in April 2020 crude oil futures contracts traded below zero for the first time in history. Similar storage shortages may occur in the future. The oversupply of oil may arise due to a number of different factors, including: (i) disruptions in oil pipelines and other means to get oil out of storage and delivered to refineries (as might occur due to infrastructure deterioration, work stoppages, or weather/disaster); (ii) investor demand for futures contracts as an investment opportunity driving increased production; or (iii) potential U.S. government intervention (in the form of grants or other aid) to keep oil producers, and the workers they employ, in service. If an Index Contract held by the Fund were to reach a negative price, investors in the Fund could lose a significant portion of, or their entire, investment.
Factors that may affect the demand for crude oil and, therefore, its price include technological improvements in energy efficiency; seasonal weather patterns, including those associated with heating and cooling; increased competitiveness of alternative energy sources; changes in technology or consumer preferences that alter fuel choices, such as preferences for electric and alternative-fueled vehicles; and remote working and government lockdowns resulting from pandemics.
Supply-related factors may affect crude oil prices. For example, increased supply from the development of new oil supply sources and technologies to enhance recovery from existing sources tends to reduce crude oil prices to the extent that such supply increases are not offset by commensurate growth in demand, and increases in industry refining or petrochemical manufacturing capacity may impact the supply of crude oil. World oil supply levels can also be affected by factors that reduce available supplies, such as adherence by member countries to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (“OPEC”) production quotas and the occurrence of wars, hostile actions, natural disasters, disruptions in competitors’ operations, or unexpected unavailability of distribution channels that may disrupt supplies. Technological change can also alter the relative costs for companies in the petroleum industry to find, produce, and refine oil and to manufacture petrochemicals, which in turn may affect the supply of and demand for oil.
Futures contract prices have a high degree of volatility and are subject to rapid and substantial changes. Consequently, there is a risk that the value of your investment in the Fund could decrease significantly due to rapid and substantial changes in the prices of futures contracts held by the Fund. The Index’s average annual volatility is 24.92%. Average annual volatility is the average of the Index’s volatility each year since its inception. Yearly volatility is the relative rate at which the price of the Index moves up and down, found by calculating the annualized standard deviation of the daily change in price for each business day in the given year. However, the average annual volatility should not be interpreted as the most-likely outcome. As demonstrated during the unprecedented market conditions in 2020, volatility in certain futures contracts may spike significantly during periods of global economic and social stress. At such times, if the Fund holds a futures contract that experiences the full impact of such market stresses, the volatility of its investments could greatly surpass the Index’s average annual volatility.
Possible Illiquid Markets May Exacerbate Losses.
Trading on Futures Exchanges Outside the United States Is Not Subject to U.S. Regulation.
Trading on futures exchanges located outside the United States is not regulated by any United States governmental agency and may involve certain risks not applicable to trading on U.S. exchanges, including different or diminished investor protections. If the Fund trades contracts denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars, the Fund will be exposed to the risk of adverse exchange-rate movements between the dollar and the currencies in which those contracts are denominated.
In addition, trading on non-U.S. exchanges is subject to the risks presented by exchange controls, expropriation, increased tax burdens and exposure to local economic declines and political instability, among other factors. An adverse development with respect to any of these factors could reduce the profit or increase the loss earned on the Fund’s trades on non-U.S. exchanges.
Futures Risks
Index Risks
The Index Commodities are RBOB Gasoline, Ultra-Low Sulphur Diesel, Brent Crude Oil, Light Sweet Crude Oil, and Natural Gas. Other commodity indexes may contain a larger number of commodities than the Index. Accordingly, increased volatility in a single Index Commodity is expected to have a greater impact on the Index’s overall volatility than would likely be the case with increased volatility in a single commodity within a broader index. Because the Fund tracks the performance of the Index, your investment in the Fund will be exposed to the relatively greater impact on the Index of volatility in a single Index Commodity.
Regulatory Risks
The Index is composed of five Index Commodities, which are all subject to position limits imposed by the rules of the CFTC and/or futures exchanges on which the futures contracts for the applicable Index Commodities are traded. The CFTC amended its position limits rules in October 2020. Pursuant to the amended rules, federal position limits apply to 25 physical delivery commodity futures contracts and options thereon, as well as to swaps that are economically equivalent to such contracts and to futures and options thereon that are directly or indirectly linked to the price of such contracts or to the same commodity underlying such contracts (e.g., cash-settled look-a-like futures). Under the amended framework, position limits (i) for 25 core referenced futures contracts (including corn, oats, wheat, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton, live cattle, rough rice, cocoa, coffee, frozen orange juice concentrate, sugar, gold, silver, copper, platinum, palladium, natural gas, crude oil, Ultra-Low Sulphur Diesel, and RBOB gasoline) are determined by the CFTC and (ii) for all other commodities are determined by the futures exchanges.
Since coming into effect on January 3, 2018, Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (“MiFID II”), as implemented in national laws and regulations, requires the competent authorities of member states in the European Union (“EU”) and United Kingdom (“UK”) to impose position limits on certain commodity derivatives contracts which are applicable to any person, whether or not based in the EU or UK. Pursuant to laws and regulations that implemented MiFID II in the UK, the UK regulatory agency, the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”), has established position limits applicable to aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc commodity derivative contracts traded on the London Metal Exchange (“LME”). LME may also impose accountability levels in certain contracts, where further directions in respect of those positions can then be required. If the Fund were to trade commodity derivatives contracts on other exchanges in the EU or the UK, position limits may apply to such trading activity pursuant to MiFID II as implemented in the relevant national laws and regulations. On January 31, 2020, the UK formally withdrew from the EU (known as “Brexit”) and, after a transition period, left the EU single market and customs union under the terms of a new trade agreement on December 31, 2020. The agreement governs the new relationship between the UK and EU with respect to trading goods and services, but critical aspects of the relationship remain unresolved and subject to further negotiation and agreement. The complete impact of the new agreement, as well as the full scope and nature of the consequences of the exit, are not at this time known and are unlikely to be known for a significant period of time. Any UK firm that was trading derivatives in EU markets using a MiFID passport prior to the conclusion of the transition period will no longer be able to use that MiFID II passport to do so and instead would need to look to any MiFID II third country regime to access the EU market or establish a MiFID II compliant EU branch or subsidiary. The loss of MiFID II passports by UK-based firms could adversely affect the Fund’s ability to trade derivatives in EU markets through UK-based firms.
Governmental and regulatory changes or actions may have unexpected or adverse consequences on particular markets, transactions, or investments, which may adversely impact the Fund and impair how it is managed. Policy and legislative changes in the United States and in other countries affect many aspects of financial regulation, and may in some instances contribute to decreased liquidity, increased costs and increased volatility in the financial markets. The impact of these changes on the markets, and the practical implications for market participants, may not be fully known for some time.
Tax Risks
General Risks
Lack of Independent Advisers Representing Investors.
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