INVESCO DB BASE METALS FUND
For the period ended Dec 31, 2023. Filed Feb 23, 2024.
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FY2023 · Filed Feb 23, 2024
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Item 1A. RISK FACTORS
Summary of Risk Factors
The Fund is subject to fees and expenses in the aggregate amount of approximately 0.77% per annum and will be successful only if its annual returns from futures trading, plus its annual Treasury Income, Money Market Income and T-Bill ETF Income, exceed such fees and expenses.
Certain potential conflicts of interest exist between the Managing Owner, the Commodity Broker (as defined herein) and their affiliates and the Fund’s Shareholders. Although the Managing Owner attempts to monitor for conflicts, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, for the Managing Owner to ensure that the conflicts will not, in fact, result in adverse consequences to the Fund and the Shareholders.
Market Risks
Weather and other environmental conditions;
Acts of God;
War or acts of terrorism; and
Possible Illiquid Markets May Exacerbate Losses.
Futures positions cannot always be liquidated at the desired price. It is difficult to execute a trade at a specific price when there is a relatively small volume of buy and sell orders in a market. A market disruption, such as when foreign governments may take or be subject to political actions which disrupt the markets in their currencies or major commodities exports, can also make it difficult to liquidate a position.
Trading on Futures Exchanges Outside the United States Is Not Subject to U.S. Regulation.
Trading on futures exchanges located outside the United States is not regulated by any United States governmental agency and may involve certain risks not applicable to trading on U.S. exchanges, including different or diminished investor protections. If the Fund trades contracts denominated in currencies other than U.S. dollars, the Fund will be exposed to the risk of adverse exchange-rate movements between the dollar and the currencies in which those contracts are denominated.
In addition, trading on non-U.S. exchanges is subject to the risks presented by exchange controls, expropriation, increased tax burdens and exposure to local economic declines and political instability, among other factors. An adverse development with respect to any of these factors could reduce the profit or increase the loss earned on the Fund’s trades on non-U.S. exchanges.
The commodity futures markets may be subject to temporary distortions due to various factors, including lack of liquidity, congestion, disorderly closing periods, manipulation and disruptive conduct, limitations on deliverable supplies, excessive speculation, government regulation and intervention, technical and operational or system failures, nuclear accidents, terrorism, riots and acts of God.
Futures Risks
“Initial” or “original” margin is the minimum amount of funds that must be deposited by a futures trader with his commodity broker in order to initiate futures trading or to maintain an open position in futures contracts. “Maintenance” margin is the amount (generally less than initial margin) to which a trader’s account may decline before he must deliver additional margin. A margin deposit is like a cash performance bond. It helps assure the futures trader’s performance of the futures contract that the trader purchases or sells. Futures contracts are customarily bought and sold on margin that represents a very small percentage (ranging upward from less than 2%) of the purchase price of the underlying commodity being traded. Because of such low margins, price fluctuations occurring in the futures markets may create profits and losses that are greater, in relation to the amount invested, than are customary in other forms of investments. The minimum amount of margin required in connection with a particular futures contract is set from time to time by the exchange on which such contract is traded, and may be modified from time to time by the exchange during the term of the contract. With respect to the Managing Owner’s trading, only the Managing Owner, and not the Fund or its Shareholders personally, will be subject to margin calls.
The Fund’s returns from futures trading are called excess return, which is the combined return based on the spot prices of the Index Commodities and the roll yield from trading Index Contracts. Market conditions at the time the Fund replaces expiring Index Contracts with new Index Contracts –i.e., when Index Contracts are “rolled” – will affect the Fund’s roll yield. Those market conditions are referred to as backwardation and contango, which will generally affect the Fund’s roll yield as set forth below:
Index Risks
The Fund is not actively managed on the basis of judgments relating to economic, financial and market conditions with a view to obtaining positive results under all market conditions. Instead, the Managing Owner seeks to cause the NAV to track the performance of the Index during periods in which the Index is flat or declining as well as when the Index is rising. Therefore, under normal market conditions, if positions in any one or more of the Index Commodities are declining in value, the Fund will not close out such positions, except in connection with a change in the composition or weighting of the Index.
The Index Commodities are Aluminum, Zinc and Copper – Grade A. Other commodity indexes may contain a larger number of commodities than the Index. Accordingly, increased volatility in a single Index Commodity is expected to have a greater impact on the Index’s overall volatility than would likely be the case with increased volatility in a single commodity within a broader index. Because the Fund tracks the performance of the Index, your investment in the Fund will be exposed to the relatively greater impact on the Index of volatility in a single Index Commodity.
Regulatory Risks
The Index is composed of three Index Commodities, each of which is subject to position limits imposed by the rules of futures exchanges on which Index Contracts are traded. The CFTC amended its position limits rules in October 2020. Pursuant to the amended rules, federal position limits apply to 25 physical delivery commodity futures contracts and options thereon, as well as to referenced contracts, including swaps that are economically equivalent to such contracts and to futures and options thereon that are directly or indirectly linked to the price of such contracts or to the same commodity underlying such contracts (e.g., cash-settled look-a-like futures). Under the amended framework, position limits (i) for 25 core referenced futures contracts (including corn, oats, wheat, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton, live cattle, rough rice, cocoa, coffee, frozen orange juice concentrate, sugar, gold, silver, copper, platinum, palladium, natural gas, crude oil, heating oil, and RBOB gasoline) are determined by the CFTC and (ii) for all other commodities are determined by the futures exchanges. The amended position limits rules include in the position limits regime certain contracts offered by a foreign board of trade (“FBOT”), requiring market participants to include their positions in referenced contracts that are executed on or subject to the rules of an FBOT if the positions are held in referenced contracts that settle to (“linked to”) a referenced contract on a designated contract market, and the FBOT allows direct access to its trading system for participants located in the United States.
Since coming into effect on January 3, 2018, Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (“MiFID II”), as implemented in national laws and regulations, requires the competent authorities of member states in the European Union (“EU”) and United Kingdom (“UK”) to impose position limits on certain commodity derivatives contracts which are applicable to any person, whether or not based in the EU or UK. Pursuant to laws and regulations that implemented MiFID II in the UK, the UK regulatory agency, the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”), has established position limits applicable to aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc commodity derivative contracts traded on the London Metal Exchange (“LME”). LME may also impose accountability levels in certain contracts, where further directions in respect of those positions can then be required. If the Fund were to trade commodity derivatives contracts on other exchanges in the EU or the UK, position limits may apply to such trading activity pursuant to MiFID II as implemented in the relevant national laws and regulations. On January 31, 2020, the UK formally withdrew from the EU (known as “Brexit”) and, after a transition period, left the EU single market and customs union under the terms of a new trade agreement on December 31, 2020. The agreement governs the new relationship between the UK and EU with respect to trading goods and services, but critical aspects of the relationship remain unresolved and subject to further negotiation and agreement. The complete impact of the new agreement, as well as the full scope and nature of the consequences of the exit, are not at this time known and are unlikely to be known for a significant period of time. Any UK firm that was trading derivatives in EU markets using a MiFID passport prior to the conclusion of the transition period will no longer be able to use that MiFID II passport to do so and instead would need to look to any MiFID II third country regime to access the EU market or establish a MiFID II compliant EU branch or subsidiary. The loss of MiFID II passports by UK-based firms could adversely affect the Fund’s ability to trade derivatives in EU markets through UK-based firms.
Tax Risks
General Risks
It is generally expected that the public trading price per Share will track the NAV per Share closely over time. The relationship between the public trading price per Share and the NAV per Share depends, to a considerable degree, on the ability of Authorized Participants or their clients or customers to purchase and redeem Creation Units in the ordinary course. If the process for creating or redeeming Shares is impaired for any reason, Authorized Participants and their clients or customers may not be able to purchase and redeem Creation Units or, even if possible, may choose not to do so. The inability to purchase and redeem Creation Units, or the partial impairment of the ability to purchase and redeem Creation Units, could result in Shares trading at a premium or discount to the NAV of the Fund. Such a premium or discount could be significant, depending upon the nature or duration of the impairment.
The Managing Owner may, in its discretion, suspend the right of redemption or postpone the redemption order settlement date with respect to Creation Units for (1) any period during which an emergency exists as a result of which the redemption distribution is not reasonably practicable, or (2) such other period as the Managing Owner determines to be necessary for the protection of the Shareholders. In addition, the Fund will reject a redemption order if the order is not in proper form as described in the Participant Agreement with the Authorized Participant, or if the fulfillment of the order, in the opinion of the Fund’s counsel, might be unlawful. Any such postponement, suspension or rejection could adversely affect a redeeming Authorized Participant. For example, the resulting delay may adversely affect the value of the Authorized Participant’s redemption proceeds if the NAV of the Fund declines during the period of delay. The Fund disclaims any liability for any loss or damage that may result from any such suspension or postponement.
Lack of Independent Advisers Representing Investors.
It is ultimately within the discretion of the Managing Owner whether it will continue to operate and advise the Fund. The Managing Owner may withdraw from the Fund upon 120 days’ prior written notice to all Shareholders and the Trustee, which would cause the Fund to terminate unless a substitute managing owner was obtained. Shareholders owning 50% or more of the Shares have the power to terminate the Fund. If it is so exercised, investors who may wish to continue to invest in a vehicle that tracks the Fund’s Index will have to find another vehicle, and may not be able to find another vehicle that offers the same features as the Fund. See “Description of the Shares; Certain Material Terms of the Trust Agreement – Termination Events” in the Fund’s Prospectus for a summary of termination events. Such detrimental developments could cause you to liquidate your investments and upset the overall maturity and timing of your investment portfolio. In addition, Shareholders could receive less from the sale of the Fund’s assets in the event of its liquidation and termination than amounts that could be realized from sales of those assets other than in the case of a liquidation and termination. If the registrations with the CFTC or memberships in the NFA of the Managing Owner or the Commodity Broker were revoked or suspended, such entity would no longer be able to provide services to the Fund.
Cyber attacks may also be carried out in a manner that does not require gaining unauthorized access, such as causing denial-of-service attacks on websites. Cyber security failures or breaches of the Fund’s third party service providers (including, but not limited to, the Index Sponsor, the Administrator and the Transfer Agent) or money market mutual funds and T-Bill ETFs in which the Fund invests, have the ability to cause disruptions and impact business operations, potentially resulting in financial losses, the inability of
Shareholders or Authorized Participants to transact business in Shares and Creation Units respectively, violations of applicable privacy and other laws, regulatory fines, penalties, reputational damage, reimbursement or other compensation costs, and/or additional compliance costs. In addition, substantial costs may be incurred in order to prevent any cyber incidents in the future. The Fund and its Shareholders could be negatively impacted as a result.
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