ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD

We have large aggregate exposures to natural and man-made catastrophic events, pandemic events like COVID-19 and severe economic events. Natural catastrophes can be caused by various events, including hurricanes, floods, windstorms, earthquakes, hailstorms, tornadoes, explosions, severe winter weather, fires, droughts and other natural disasters. Man-made catastrophic events may include acts of war, acts of terrorism and political instability. Catastrophes can also cause losses in non-property business such as mortgage insurance, workers’ compensation or general liability. In addition to the nature of property business, we believe that economic and geographic trends affecting insured property, including inflation, property value appreciation and geographic concentration, tend to generally increase the size of losses from catastrophic events over time.

Our models employ both proprietary and vendor-based systems and include cross-line correlations for property, marine, offshore energy, aviation, workers compensation and personal accident. We seek to limit the probable maximum pre-tax loss to a specific level for severe catastrophic events. Currently, we seek to limit our 1-in-250 year return period net probable maximum loss from a severe catastrophic event in any geographic zone to approximately 25% of tangible shareholders’ equity available to Arch (total shareholders’

equity available to Arch less goodwill and intangible assets). We reserve the right to change this threshold at any time.

Based on in-force exposure estimated as of July 1, 2024, our modeled peak zone catastrophe exposure was a windstorm affecting the Florida Tri-County regions, with a net probable maximum pre-tax loss of $1.6 billion, or 8% of tangible shareholders’ equity available to Arch, followed by windstorms affecting the Northeastern U.S. regions and the Gulf of Mexico with net probable maximum pre-tax losses of $1.4 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively. Our exposures to other perils, such as U.S. earthquake and international events, were less than the exposures arising from U.S. windstorms and hurricanes. As of July 1, 2024, our modeled peak zone earthquake exposure (San Francisco earthquake) represented approximately 58% of our peak zone catastrophe exposure, and our modeled peak zone international exposure (Germany windstorm) was substantially less than both our peak zone windstorm and earthquake exposures.

We also have significant exposure to losses due to mortgage defaults resulting from severe economic events in the future. For our U.S. mortgage insurance business, we have developed a proprietary risk model (“Realistic Disaster Scenario” or “RDS”) that simulates the maximum loss resulting from a severe economic downturn impacting the housing market. The RDS models the collective impact of adverse conditions for key economic indicators, the most significant of which is a decline in home prices. The RDS model projects paths of future home prices, unemployment rates, income levels and interest rates and assumes correlation across states and geographic regions. The resulting future performance of our in-force portfolio is then estimated under the economic stress scenario, reflecting loan and borrower information.

Currently, we seek to limit our modeled RDS loss from a severe economic event to approximately 25% of tangible shareholders’ equity available to Arch. We reserve the right to change this threshold at any time. Based on in-force exposure estimated as of July 1, 2024, our modeled RDS loss was approximately $1.3 billion, or 6% of tangible shareholders’ equity available to Arch.

Net probable maximum loss estimates are net of expected reinsurance recoveries, before income tax and before excess reinsurance reinstatement premiums. RDS loss estimates are net of expected reinsurance recoveries and before income tax. Catastrophe loss estimates are reflective of the zone indicated and not the entire portfolio. Since hurricanes and windstorms can affect more than one zone and make multiple landfalls, our catastrophe loss estimates include clash estimates from other zones. Our catastrophe loss estimates and RDS loss estimates do not represent our maximum exposures and it is highly likely that our actual incurred losses would vary materially from the modeled estimates. There can be no assurances that we will not suffer pre-tax losses greater than

25% of our tangible shareholders’ equity from one or more catastrophic events or severe economic events due to several factors. These factors include the inherent uncertainties in estimating the frequency and severity of such events and the margin of error in making such determinations resulting from potential inaccuracies and inadequacies in the data provided by clients and brokers, the modeling techniques and the application of such techniques or as a result of a decision to change the percentage of shareholders' equity exposed to a single catastrophic event or severe economic event. In addition, actual losses may increase if our reinsurers fail to meet their obligations to us or the reinsurance protections purchased by us are exhausted or are otherwise unavailable. See “Risk Factors—Risks Relating to Our Industry” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Catastrophic Events and Severe Economic Events” in our 2023 Form 10-K.

MARKET SENSITIVE INSTRUMENTS AND RISK MANAGEMENT

In accordance with the SEC’s Financial Reporting Release No. 48, we performed a sensitivity analysis to determine the effects that market risk exposures could have on the future earnings, fair values or cash flows of our financial instruments as of June 30, 2024. Market risk represents the risk of changes in the fair value of a financial instrument and is comprised of several components, including liquidity, basis and price risks.

An analysis of material changes in market risk exposures at June 30, 2024 that affect the quantitative and qualitative disclosures presented in our 2023 Form 10-K (see section captioned “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Market Sensitive Instruments and Risk Management”) were as follows:

Investment Market Risk

Fixed Income Securities. We invest in interest rate sensitive securities, primarily debt securities. We consider the effect of interest rate movements on the fair value of our fixed maturities, short-term investments and certain of our other investments, equity securities and investment funds accounted for using the equity method which invest in fixed income securities (collectively, “Fixed Income Securities”) and the corresponding change in unrealized appreciation. As interest rates rise, the fair value of our Fixed Income Securities falls, and the converse is also true. Based on historical observations, there is a low probability that all interest rate yield curves would shift in the same direction at the same time. Furthermore, at times interest rate movements in certain credit sectors exhibit a much lower correlation to changes in U.S. Treasury yields. Accordingly, the actual effect of interest rate movements may differ materially from the amounts set forth in the following tables.

The following table summarizes the effect that an immediate, parallel shift in the interest rate yield curve would have had on our Fixed Income Securities:

In addition, we consider the effect of credit spread movements on the market value of our Fixed Income Securities and the corresponding change in unrealized value. As credit spreads widen, the fair value of our Fixed Income Securities falls, and the converse is also true. In periods where the spreads on our Fixed Income Securities are much higher than their historical average due to short-term market dislocations, a parallel shift in credit spread levels would result in a much more pronounced change in unrealized value.

The following table summarizes the effect that an immediate, parallel shift in credit spreads in a static interest rate environment would have had on our Fixed Income Securities:

Another method that attempts to measure portfolio risk is Value-at-Risk (“VaR”). VaR measures the worst expected loss under normal market conditions over a specific time interval at a given confidence level. The 1-year 95th percentile parametric VaR reported herein estimates that 95% of the time, the portfolio loss in a one-year horizon would be less than or equal to the calculated number, stated as a percentage of the measured portfolio’s initial value. The VaR is a variance-covariance based estimate, based on linear sensitivities of a portfolio to a broad set of systematic market risk factors and idiosyncratic risk factors mapped to the portfolio exposures. The relationships between the risk factors are estimated using historical data, and the most recent data points are generally given more weight. As of June 30, 2024, our portfolio’s 95th percentile VaR was estimated to be 6.5%, compared to an estimated 7.8% at December 31, 2023. In periods where the volatility of the risk factors mapped to our portfolio’s exposures is higher due to market conditions, the resulting VaR is higher than in other periods.

Equity Securities. At June 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the fair value of our investments in equity securities and certain investments accounted for using the equity method with underlying equity strategies totaled $1.2 billion and $1.0 billion, respectively. These investments are exposed to price risk, which is the potential loss arising from decreases in fair value. An immediate hypothetical 10% decline in the value of each position would reduce the fair value of such investments by approximately $125 million and $101 million at June 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively, and would have decreased book value per share by approximately $0.33 and $0.27, respectively. An immediate hypothetical 10% increase in the value of each position would increase the fair value of such investments by approximately $125 million and $101 million at June 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively, and would have increased book value per share by approximately $0.33 and $0.27, respectively.

Investment-Related Derivatives. At June 30, 2024, the notional value of all derivative instruments (excluding foreign currency forward contracts which are included in the foreign currency exchange risk analysis below) was $3.8 billion, compared to $4.2 billion at December 31, 2023. If the underlying exposure of each investment-related derivative held at June 30, 2024 depreciated by 100 basis points, it would have resulted in a reduction in net income of approximately $38 million, and a decrease in book value per share of approximately $0.10 per share, compared to $42 million and $0.11 per share, respectively, on investment-related derivatives held at December 31, 2023. If the underlying exposure of each investment-related derivative held at June 30, 2024 appreciated by 100 basis points, it would have resulted in an increase in net income of approximately $38 million, and an increase in book value per share of approximately $0.10 per share, compared to $42 million and $0.11 per share, respectively, on investment-related derivatives held at December 31, 2023. Seenote 9, “Derivative Instruments,” to our consolidated financial statements for additional disclosures concerning derivatives.

For further discussion on investment activity, please refer to “Financial Condition—Investable Assets.”

Foreign Currency Exchange Risk

Foreign currency rate risk is the potential change in value, income and cash flow arising from adverse changes in foreign currency exchange rates. Through our subsidiaries and branches located in various foreign countries, we conduct our insurance and reinsurance operations in a variety of local currencies other than the U.S. Dollar. We generally hold investments in foreign currencies which are intended to mitigate our exposure to foreign currency fluctuations in our net insurance liabilities. We may also utilize foreign currency forward contracts and currency options as part of our investment strategy. Seenote 9, “Derivative Instruments,” to our consolidated financial statements for additional information.

The following table provides a summary of our net foreign currency exchange exposures, as well as foreign currency derivatives in place to manage these exposures:

(1) Represents capital contributions held in the foreign currencies of our operating units.

(2) Represents the net notional value of outstanding foreign currency forward contracts.

Although we generally attempt to match the currency of our projected liabilities with investments in the same currencies, from time to time we may elect to over or underweight one or more currencies, which could increase our exposure to foreign currency fluctuations and increase the volatility of our shareholders’ equity. Historical observations indicate a low probability that all foreign currency exchange rates would shift against the U.S. Dollar in the same direction and at the same time and, accordingly, the actual effect of foreign currency rate movements may differ materially from the amounts set forth above. For further discussion on foreign exchange activity, please refer to “Results of Operations.”

Effects of Inflation

General economic inflation has increased in recent quarters and may continue to remain at elevated levels for an extended period of time. The potential also exists, after a catastrophe loss or pandemic events like COVID-19, for the development of inflationary pressures in a local economy. This may have a material effect on the adequacy of our reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses, especially in longer-tailed lines of business, and on the market value of our investment portfolio through rising interest rates. The anticipated effects of inflation are considered in our pricing models, reserving processes and exposure management, across all lines of business and types of loss including natural catastrophe events. The actual effects of inflation on our results cannot be accurately known until claims are ultimately settled and will vary by the specific type of inflation affecting each line of business.