Chubb Ltd

We actively monitor and manage our catastrophe risk accumulation around the world from natural perils, which includes setting risk limits based on probable maximum loss (PML) and purchasing catastrophe reinsurance to ensure sufficient liquidity and capital to meet the expectations of regulators, rating agencies, and policyholders, and to provide shareholders with an appropriate risk-adjusted return. Chubb uses internal and external data together with sophisticated, analytical catastrophe loss and risk modeling techniques to ensure an appropriate understanding of risk, including diversification and correlation effects, across different product lines and territories. The table below presents our modeled pre-tax estimates of natural catastrophe PML, net of reinsurance, at March 31, 2025, and does not represent our expected catastrophe losses for any one year.

(1)Worldwide aggregate includes modeled losses arising from tropical cyclones, convective storms, earthquakes, wildfires, and inland floods, and excludes "non-modeled" perils such as man-made and other catastrophe risks including pandemic.

(2)U.S. hurricane modeled losses include losses from wind, storm-surge, and related precipitation-induced flooding.

(3)California earthquake modeled losses include the fire-following sub-peril.

The PML for worldwide and key U.S. peril regions are based on our in-force portfolio at January 1, 2025, and reflect the April 1, 2025, reinsurance program, as well as inuring reinsurance protection coverage. Refer to the Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance section for more information. These estimates assume that reinsurance recoverable is fully collectible.

According to the model, for the 1-in-100 return period scenario, there is a one percent chance that our pre-tax annual aggregate losses incurred in any year from U.S. hurricane events could be in excess of $3,864 million (or 5.9 percent of total Chubb shareholders’ equity at March 31, 2025).

The above estimates of Chubb’s loss profile are inherently uncertain for many reasons, including the following:

•While the use of third-party modeling packages to simulate potential catastrophe losses is prevalent within the insurance industry, the models are reliant upon significant meteorology, seismology, and engineering assumptions to estimate catastrophe losses. In particular, modeled catastrophe events are not always a representation of actual events and ensuing additional loss potential;

•There is no universal standard in the preparation of insured data for use in the models, the running of the modeling software, and interpretation of loss output. These loss estimates do not represent our potential maximum exposures and it is highly likely that our actual incurred losses would vary materially from the modeled estimates;

•The potential effects of climate change add to modeling complexity; and

•Changing climate conditions could impact our exposure to natural catastrophe risks. Published studies by leading government, academic, and professional organizations combined with extensive research by Chubb climate scientists reveal the potential for increases in the frequency and severity of key natural perils such as tropical cyclones, inland flood, and wildfire. To understand the potential impacts on the Chubb portfolio, we have conducted stress tests on our peak exposure zone, namely in the U.S., using parameters outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2021 report. These parameters consider the impacts of climate change and the resulting climate peril impacts over a timescale relevant to our business. The tests are conducted by adjusting our baseline view of risk for the perils of hurricane, inland flood, and wildfire in the U.S. to reflect increases in frequency and severity across the modeled domains for each of these perils. Based on these tests against the Chubb portfolio we do not expect material impacts to our baseline PMLs from climate change through December 31, 2025. These tests reflect current exposures only and exclude potentially mitigating factors such as changes to building codes, public or private risk mitigation, regulation, and public policy.

Refer to Item 7 in our 2024 Form 10-K for more information on man-made and other catastrophes.