Chubb Ltd

We actively monitor and manage our catastrophe risk accumulation around the world from natural perils, which includes setting risk limits based on probable maximum loss (PML) and purchasing catastrophe reinsurance to ensure sufficient liquidity and capital to meet the expectations of regulators, rating agencies, and policyholders, and to provide shareholders with an appropriate risk-adjusted return. Chubb uses internal and external data together with sophisticated, analytical catastrophe loss and risk modeling techniques to ensure an appropriate understanding of risk, including diversification and correlation effects, across different product lines and territories. The table below presents our modeled pre-tax estimates of natural catastrophe PML, net of reinsurance, at December 31, 2024, and does not represent our expected catastrophe losses for any one year.

(1) Worldwide aggregate includes modeled losses arising from tropical cyclones, convective storms, earthquakes, wildfires, and inland floodsand excludes "non-modeled" perils such as man-made and other catastrophe risks including pandemic.

(2) U.S. hurricane modeled losses include losses from wind, storm-surge, and related precipitation-induced flooding.

(3) California earthquake modeled losses include the fire-following sub-peril.

The PML for worldwide and key U.S. peril regions are based on our in-force portfolio at October 1, 2024, and reflect the September 1, 2024, reinsurance program as well as inuring reinsurance protection coverage. As of April 1, 2024, we increased retention in North America by $500 million and increased limits by $1.7 billion. On August 31, 2024, a $500 million catastrophe treaty covering named windstorms and earthquakes within Northeast States expired and was not renewed. Refer to the Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance section for more information. These estimates assume that reinsurance recoverable is fully collectible.

According to the model, for the 1-in-100 return period scenario, there is a one percent chance that our pre-tax annual aggregate losses incurred in any year from U.S. hurricane events could be in excess of $3,831 million (or 6.0 percent of total Chubb shareholders’ equity at December 31, 2024). Effective March 31, 2024, our worldwide and U.S. Hurricane PMLs reflect the latest North Atlantic hurricane vulnerability model.

The above estimates of Chubb’s loss profile are inherently uncertain for many reasons, including the following:

•While the use of third-party modeling packages to simulate potential catastrophe losses is prevalent within the insurance industry, the models are reliant upon significant meteorology, seismology, and engineering assumptions to estimate catastrophe losses. In particular, modeled catastrophe events are not always a representation of actual events and ensuing additional loss potential;

•There is no universal standard in the preparation of insured data for use in the models, the running of the modeling software, and interpretation of loss output. These loss estimates do not represent our potential maximum exposures and it is highly likely that our actual incurred losses would vary materially from the modeled estimates;

•The potential effects of climate change add to modeling complexity; and

•Changing climate conditions could impact our exposure to natural catastrophe risks. Published studies by leading government, academic, and professional organizations combined with extensive research by Chubb climate scientists reveal the potential for increases in the frequency and severity of key natural perils such as tropical cyclones, inland flood, and wildfire. To understand the potential impacts on the Chubb portfolio, we have conducted stress tests on our peak exposure zone, namely in the U.S., using parameters outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2021 report. These parameters consider the impacts of climate change and the resulting climate peril impacts over a timescale relevant to our business. The tests are conducted by adjusting our baseline view of risk for the perils of hurricane, inland flood, and wildfire in the U.S. to reflect increases in frequency and severity across the modeled domains for each of these perils. Based on these tests against the Chubb portfolio we do not expect material impacts to our baseline

PMLs from climate change through December 31, 2025. These tests reflect current exposures only and exclude potentially mitigating factors such as changes to building codes, public or private risk mitigation, regulation, and public policy.

Man-made and other catastrophes

We have substantial exposure to losses resulting from man-made catastrophes including terrorism, cyber-attack, financial events, and other catastrophe events, including pandemics. These events are inherently unpredictable and could impact a variety of our businesses, including commercial and personal lines, life insurance, A&H, and reinsurance products. Our losses from these events could be substantial.

Terrorism

We offer terrorism coverage in the U.S. and in many other countries through various insurance products. We actively monitor terrorism risk and manage exposures through set risk limits based on modeled losses from certain terrorism attack scenarios, the purchase of reinsurance, and the reliance on government-sponsored terrorism reinsurance programs. In the U.S., certain protections of our terrorism exposure are provided through the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2019 (TRIPRA). In 2024, TRIPRA covers 81 percent of insured losses above a deductible, estimated to be approximately $3.2 billion. Refer to “Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Program” for information on our reinsurance protection purchased. At our largest exposure location in the U.S., our maximum modeled losses from a 10-ton truck-bomb explosion are estimated to be $2.4 billion pre-tax based on the exposures, net of reinsurance and TRIPRA, as of December 31, 2024.

Cyber Insurance

While frequency and severity trends are being managed through long-standing underwriting strategies, the potential catastrophe risk that aggregation of cyber exposures presents to insurers is unique and unprecedented. In contrast with natural catastrophe risks, catastrophic cyber event scenarios are not bound by time or geography. Further, catastrophic cyber perils do not have well-established definitions or fundamental physical properties. For these reasons, catastrophic cyber events have the inherent potential for significant economic loss. Although cyber risk does not represent a material component of our net premiums written and we engage in significant risk mitigation through our underwriting and use of reinsurance, we are exposed to material losses in the event of a systemic cyber-attack.

Financial Risk

The consequences of adverse global or regional market and economic conditions may affect our investment portfolio. Our investment portfolio is subject to credit or default risk and may also be less liquid in times of economic weakness or market disruptions. Our investments are subject to market risks and risks inherent in individual securities. Our investment performance is highly sensitive to many factors, including interest rates, inflation, monetary and fiscal policies, and domestic and international political conditions. The volatility of our losses may force us to liquidate securities, which may cause us to incur capital losses. Realized and unrealized losses in our investment portfolio would reduce our book value, and if significant, can affect our ability to conduct business.

Moreover, we have substantial exposure to insurance products which are sensitive to certain system-wide financial conditions, such as our financial lines, surety, political risk, involuntary loss of employment (outside U.S.), and trade credit products. These products tend to be characterized by infrequent but potentially high severity losses. The majority of our exposure in these products may be impacted by an adverse economic climate such as an economic recession or depression. If the financial condition of these insureds were adversely affected by the economy or otherwise, we may experience an increase in filed claims and may incur high severity losses, which could have an adverse effect on our results of operations. We monitor credit exposures to single counterparties and to sectors of interest from sources across our operations (e.g. investments, insurance products, reinsurance recoverable, bank deposits, letters of credit) and establish guidelines for credit risk exposure at the counterparty level. Our net income may be volatile because certain variable annuity reinsurance products sold expose us to fair value liability changes that are directly affected by market and other factors and assumptions.

Pandemic

An outbreak of pandemic disease, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, could have a materially adverse effect on our results of operations. The vast majority of our property and liability coverages do not provide coverage for pandemic claims. However, we are subject to the potential of aggregation of loss from coverages provided in our life, A&H, and workers' compensation portfolios. We assess our direct pandemic exposure using stress scenarios that consider mortality, morbidity, and other causes of insured loss such as trip cancellation. Our assessment also incorporates the impact of a severe economic downturn which, as stated above under Financial Risk, includes an adverse impact to our investment portfolio and to our insurance products sensitive to certain system-wide financial conditions.