Chubb Ltd

10. Market risk benefits

Our reinsurance programs covering variable annuity guarantees, comprising guaranteed living benefits (GLB) and guaranteed minimum death benefits (GMDB), meet the definition of Market risk benefits (MRB). The following table presents a roll-forward of MRB:

(1)The net amount at risk is defined as the present value of future claim payments assuming policy account values and guaranteed values are fixed at the valuation date, and reinsurance coverage ends at the earlier of the maturity of the underlying variable annuity policy or the reinsurance treaty. No withdrawals, lapses, and mortality improvements are assumed in the projection. GLB-related risks contain conservative mortality and annuitization assumptions.

Excluded from the table above are MRB gains (losses) of $(134) million and $(89) million for the three months ended March 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively, reported in the Consolidated statements of operations, relating to the market risk benefits' economic hedge and other net cash flows. There is no reinsurance recoverable associated with our liability for MRB.

For MRB, Chubb estimates fair value using an internal valuation model which includes a number of factors including interest rates, equity markets, credit risk, current account value, market volatility, expected annuitization rates and other policyholder behavior, and changes in policyholder mortality. All reinsurance treaties contain claim limits, which are also factored into the valuation model.

(1)The weighted-average lapse and annuitization rates are determined by weighting each treaty's rates by the MRB contract's fair value.

The most significant policyholder behavior assumptions include lapse rates for MRBs, and GLB annuitization rates. Assumptions regarding lapse rates and GLB annuitization rates differ by treaty, but the underlying methodologies to determine rates applied to each treaty are comparable.

A lapse rate is the percentage of in-force policies surrendered in a given calendar year. All else equal, as lapse rates increase, ultimate claim payments will decrease.

The GLB annuitization rate is the percentage of policies for which the policyholder will elect to annuitize using the guaranteed benefit provided under the GLB. All else equal, as GLB annuitization rates increase, ultimate claim payments will increase, subject to treaty claim limits.

The effect of changes in key market factors on assumed lapse and annuitization rates reflect emerging trends using data available from cedants. For treaties with limited experience, rates are established by blending the experience with data received from other ceding companies. The model and related assumptions are regularly re-evaluated by management and enhanced, as appropriate, based upon additional experience obtained related to policyholder behavior and availability of updated information such as market conditions, market participant assumptions, and demographics of in-force annuities. For detailed information on our lapse and annuitization rate assumptions, refer to Note 11 to the Consolidated Financial Statements of our 2023 Form 10-K.