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MORGAN STANLEY

For the period ended Mar 31, 2024. Filed May 3, 2024.

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About this filing

A company's report for each of its first three quarters. The financial statements are not audited. It shows how the business has moved since the last annual report, and what management says changed.

Mar 31, 2024 · Filed May 3, 2024

MS$187.10+3.1%Stored close · as of Nov 9, 2026

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Contents

Market Risk

Market risk refers to the risk that a change in the level of one or more market prices, rates, spreads, indices, volatilities, correlations or other market factors, such as market liquidity, will result in losses for a position or portfolio. Generally, we incur market risk as a result of trading, investing and client facilitation activities, principally within the Institutional Securities business segment where the substantial majority of our VaR for market risk exposures is generated. In addition, we incur non-trading market risk, principally within the Wealth Management and Investment Management business segments. The Wealth Management business segment primarily incurs non-trading market risk (including interest rate risk) from lending and deposit-taking activities. The Investment Management business segment primarily incurs non-trading market risk from capital investments in its funds. For a further discussion of market risk, see “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Risk—Market Risk” in the 2023 Form 10-K.

Trading Risks

We have exposures to a wide range of risks related to interest rates and credit spreads, equity prices, foreign exchange rates and commodity prices as well as the associated implied volatilities, correlations and spreads of the global markets in which we conduct our trading activities.

The statistical technique known as VaR is one of the tools we use to measure, monitor and review the market risk exposures of our trading portfolios.

For information regarding our primary risk exposures and market risk management, VaR methodology, assumptions and limitations, see “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Risk—Market Risk—Trading Risks” in the 2023 Form 10-K.

95%/One-Day Management VaR for the Trading Portfolio

Three Months Ended
March 31, 2024
$ in millions · Period End · Average · High1 · Low1
Interest rate and credit spread$40$40$52$27
Equity price23212417
Foreign exchange rate89156
Commodity price18131810
Less: Diversification benefit2(36)(35)N/AN/A
Primary Risk Categories$53$48$58$38
Credit Portfolio25242522
Less: Diversification benefit2(18)(18)N/AN/A
Total Management VaR$60$54$62$43
Three Months Ended
December 31, 2023
$ in millions · Period End · Average · High1 · Low1
Interest rate and credit spread$29$31$39$27
Equity price19223815
Foreign exchange rate67145
Commodity price11132010
Less: Diversification benefit2(27)(35)N/AN/A
Primary Risk Categories$38$38$45$33
Credit Portfolio25222519
Less: Diversification benefit2(22)(14)N/AN/A
Total Management VaR$41$46$54$41
  1. The high and low VaR values for the Total Management VaR and each of the component VaRs might have occurred on different days during the quarter, and, therefore, the diversification benefit is not an applicable measure.

  2. Diversification benefit equals the difference between the total VaR and the sum of the component VaRs. This benefit arises because the simulated one-day losses for each of the components occur on different days. Similar diversification benefits are also are taken into account within each component.

Average Total Management VaR and average Management VaR for the Primary Risk Categories increased from the three months ended December 31, 2023, primarily driven by increased exposure in the interest rate and credit spread risk category.

Distribution of VaR Statistics and Net Revenues

We evaluate the reasonableness of our VaR model by comparing the potential declines in portfolio values generated by the model with corresponding actual trading results for the Firm, as well as individual business units. For days where losses exceed the VaR statistic, we examine the drivers of trading losses to evaluate the VaR model’s accuracy. There were 2 trading loss days in the current quarter, none of which exceeded 95% Total Management VaR.

26March 2024 Form 10-Q

Table of Contents

Risk Disclosures

Daily 95%/One-Day Total Management VaR for the Current Quarter

Daily Net Trading Revenues for the Current Quarter

Daily net trading revenues include profits and losses from Interest rate and credit spread, Equity price, Foreign exchange rate, Commodity price, and Credit Portfolio positions and intraday trading activities for our trading businesses. Certain items such as fees, commissions, net interest income and counterparty default risk are excluded from daily net trading revenues and the VaR model. Revenues required for Regulatory VaR backtesting further exclude intraday trading.

Non-Trading Risks

We believe that sensitivity analysis is an appropriate representation of our non-trading risks. The following sensitivity analyses cover substantially all of the non-trading risk in our portfolio.

Credit Spread Risk Sensitivity 1

$ in millionsAtMarch 31,2024AtDecember 31,2023
Derivatives$5$6
Borrowings carried at fair value4948
  1. Amounts represent the potential gain for each 1 bps widening of our credit spread.

The Wealth Management business segment reflects a substantial portion of our non-trading interest rate risk. Net interest income in the Wealth Management business segment primarily consists of interest income earned on non-trading assets held, including loans and investment securities, as well as margin and other lending on non-bank entities and interest expense incurred on non-trading liabilities, primarily deposits.

Wealth Management Net Interest Income Sensitivity Analysis

$ in millionsAtMarch 31,2024AtDecember 31,2023
Basis point change
+100$561$585
-100(590)(609)

The previous table presents an analysis of selected instantaneous upward and downward parallel interest rate shocks (subject to a floor of zero percent in the downward scenario) on net interest income over the next 12 months for our Wealth Management business segment. These shocks are applied to our 12-month forecast for our Wealth Management business segment, which incorporates market expectations of interest rates, our forecasted business activity and deposit forecasts, which include assumptions around client behavior.

We do not manage to any single rate scenario but rather manage net interest income in our Wealth Management business segment across a range of possible outcomes, including non-parallel rate change scenarios. The sensitivity analysis assumes that we take no action in response to these scenarios, assumes there are no changes in other macroeconomic variables normally correlated with changes in interest rates and includes subjective assumptions regarding customer and market re-pricing behavior and other factors.

Our Wealth Management business segment balance sheet is asset sensitive, given assets reprice faster than liabilities, resulting in higher net interest income in increasing interest rate scenarios. The level of interest rates may impact the amount of deposits held at the Firm, given competition for deposits from other institutions and alternative cash-equivalent products available to depositors. Further, the level of interest rates could also impact client demand for loans.

March 2024 Form 10-Q27

Table of Contents

Risk Disclosures

Net interest income sensitivity to interest rates at March 31, 2024 was relatively unchanged from December 31, 2023.

Investments Sensitivity, Including Related Carried Interest

Loss from 10% Decline
$ in millionsAtMarch 31,2024AtDecember 31,2023
Investments related to Investment Management activities$528$481
Other investments:
MUMSS129134
Other Firm investments408399

We have exposure to public and private companies through direct investments, as well as through funds that invest in these assets. These investments are predominantly equity positions with long investment horizons, a portion of which is for business facilitation purposes. The market risk related to these investments is measured by estimating the potential reduction in net revenues associated with a reasonably possible 10% decline in investment values and related impact on performance-based income, as applicable.

Investments sensitivity changed between March 31, 2024 and December 31. 2023. Investment sensitivity increased due to new investments in public funds within the Investment Management segment.

Asset Management Revenue Sensitivity

Certain asset management revenues in the Wealth Management and Investment Management business segments are derived from management fees, which are based on fee-based client assets in Wealth Management or AUM in Investment Management (together, “client holdings”). The assets underlying client holdings are primarily composed of equity, fixed income and alternative investments and are sensitive to changes in related markets. These revenues depend on multiple factors including, but not limited to, the level and duration of a market increase or decline, price volatility, the geographic and industry mix of client assets, and client behavior such as the rate and magnitude of client investments and redemptions. Therefore, overall revenues may not correlate completely with changes in the related markets.

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