RADIAN GROUP INC

Our success depends on our ability to assess and manage our mortgage insurance underwriting risks; the mortgage insurance premiums we charge may not be adequate to compensate us for our liability for losses and the amount of capital we are required to hold against our insured mortgage risks. We expect to incur losses for future mortgage defaults beyond what we have reserved for in our financial statements.

The estimates and expectations we use to establish premium rates in our mortgage insurance business are based on assumptions made at the time our insurance is written. Our mortgage insurance premium rates are based on, among other items, our expectations about competitive and economic conditions and our cost of capital, as well as a broad range of other factors and risk attributes that we consider in developing our assumptions about the credit performance of the loans we insure and the economic benefits we expect to receive from our insurance policies. Our assumptions may ultimately prove to be inaccurate, especially in a period of high market volatility and economic uncertainty, or if there is a change in law or the GSEs’ business practices that alter the performance of the loans we have insured in ways that are inconsistent with our assumptions, including the amount of premium we expect to receive from such insurance. The premium structure we apply is subject to approval by state regulatory agencies, which can delay or limit our ability to increase our premiums if further filings or approvals are necessary to institute pricing adjustments.

If the risk underlying a mortgage loan that we have insured develops more adversely than we anticipated, we generally cannot increase the premium rates on this in-force business, cancel coverage or elect not to renew coverage to mitigate the effects of such adverse developments. Similarly, we cannot adjust our premiums if the amount of capital we are required to hold against our insured risks increases from the amount we were required to hold at the time a policy was written or if the premiums we expected to receive from such insurance are less than anticipated, whether due to a change in the GSEs’ business practices or otherwise. As a result, if we are unable to compensate for or offset the increased capital requirements in

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other ways, the returns on our business may be lower than we assumed or expected. Our premiums earned and the associated investment income on those premiums may ultimately prove to be inadequate to compensate for the losses that we may incur and may not provide an adequate return on capital that may be required. As a result, our results of operations and financial condition could be negatively impacted.

From time to time, we change the processes we use to underwrite loans, including by automating certain underwriting processes and relying on information and processes of the GSEs. For example: we rely on information provided to us by lenders that was obtained from automated income verification tools in lieu of requiring traditional income documentation; we also accept GSE appraisal waivers for certain refinance loans that may or may not require an onsite inspection of the property; and for certain purchase transactions, we accept desktop appraisals, when permitted by the GSEs, where the appraiser relies on data obtained from alternative methods or sources to identify property characteristics and condition and does not complete a current inspection of the subject property. Our acceptance of automated processes, valuation alternatives, and verification tools, may produce results that differ from the results that would have been determined using our prior processes and methods, which could affect our pricing and risk assessment. We also continue to further automate our underwriting processes to incorporate risk-informed decision making, and it is possible that our automated processes result in our insuring loans that we would not otherwise have insured under our prior processes or would have insured at a different premium rate.

Additionally, in accordance with industry practice, we generally do not establish reserves in our mortgage insurance business until we are notified that a borrower has failed to make at least two monthly payments when due. Because our mortgage insurance reserving does not account for the impact of future losses that we expect to incur with respect to performing (non-defaulted) loans, our obligation for ultimate losses that we expect to incur at any period end is not reflected in our financial statements, except if a premium deficiency exists. A premium deficiency reserve would be recorded if the present value of expected future losses and expenses exceeds the present value of expected future premiums and already established loss reserves on the applicable loans. As future defaults are not reflected in our mortgage insurance loss reserves, our loss reserves could increase significantly in future periods if we experience a high volume of new defaults in future periods, which would negatively impact our results of operations and financial condition.

If the estimates we use in establishing mortgage insurance loss reserves are incorrect, we may be required to take unexpected charges to income, which could adversely affect our results of operations.

We establish loss reserves in our mortgage insurance business to provide for the estimated cost of future claims on defaulted loans. Setting our loss reserves requires significant judgment by management with respect to the likelihood, magnitude and timing of each potential loss. The models, assumptions and estimates we use to establish loss reserves may not prove to be accurate, especially in the event of an extended economic downturn or a period of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Because claims paid may be substantially different than our loss reserves, our loss reserves may be insufficient to satisfy the full amount of claims that we ultimately have to pay. In the past, changes to our loss reserve estimates have impacted, and could again in the future impact, our results of operations and financial condition.

High levels of defaults and delays in foreclosures could delay our receipt of claims, resulting in an increase in the period of time that a loan remains in our inventory of defaulted mortgage loans, and as a result, the Claim Severity. Generally, foreclosure delays do not stop the accrual of interest or affect other expenses on a loan, and unless a loan is cured during such delay, once title to the property ultimately is obtained and a claim is filed, our paid claim amount may include additional interest and expenses, increasing the Claim Severity. Although the rate of new defaults has largely returned to pre-pandemic levels and many pandemic-related defaulted loans have cured, a portion of the defaulted loans in our insured portfolio remain in COVID-19 mortgage forbearance programs. It is difficult to predict whether these loans will cure, including through modification, when forbearance ends or how many of these loans will result in a claim.

If our loss reserve estimates are inadequate, we may be required to increase our reserves, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

Our Loss Mitigation Activity could negatively impact our customer relationships.

As part of our claims management process, we pursue opportunities to mitigate losses both before and after we receive claims, including processes to ensure claims are valid.

Our Loss Mitigation Activities and claims paying practices have in the past resulted in disputes with certain of our customers and in some cases, damaged our relationships with customers, resulting in a loss of business. While these past disputes have been resolved, a risk remains that our Loss Mitigation Activities or claims paying practices could in the future have a negative impact on our relationships with customers or potential customers. Further, disputes with our customers that are not resolved could result in arbitration or judicial proceedings, requiring significant legal expenses. To the extent that past or future Loss Mitigation Activities or our claims paying practices impact our customer relationships, it could result in the potential loss of business and our competitive position could be adversely affected, which could negatively impact our results of operations.

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Reinsurance may not be available, affordable or adequate to protect us against losses.

We use reinsurance as a capital and risk management tool. We have distributed risk through traditional quota share and excess-of-loss reinsurance arrangements, as well as to investors through the capital markets using mortgage insurance-linked notes transactions.

The availability and cost of reinsurance are subject to market conditions beyond our control, including reinsurer and investor demand for mortgage credit. No assurance can be given that reinsurance will remain available to us in amounts that we consider sufficient and at rates and upon terms that we consider acceptable. Accordingly, we may be forced to incur additional expenses for reinsurance or may not be able to obtain sufficient reinsurance on acceptable terms, which could cause us to increase the amount of risk we retain, and negatively affect our ability to mitigate losses in our portfolio, the returns we are able to achieve on the business we write and our ability to write future business. Further, reinsurance does not relieve us of our direct liability to policyholders; therefore, if the reinsurer is unable or unwilling to meet its obligations to us, we remain liable to make claims payments to our policyholders. As a result, our reinsurance arrangements do not fully eliminate our obligation to pay claims, and we have assumed counterparty credit risk with respect to our inability to recover amounts due from reinsurers.

We use reinsurance to manage Radian Guaranty’s capital position under the PMIERs financial requirements. Among other benefits, our risk distribution transactions have collectively reduced our required capital, including by significantly reducing our Required Minimum Assets under the PMIERs. The initial and ongoing credit that we receive under the PMIERs financial requirements for these risk distribution transactions is subject to the periodic review of the GSEs and could be influenced by the ERCF, which, in its current form, significantly increases the capital requirements for the GSEs and provides the GSEs with a reduced amount of credit for their own credit risk transfer activities. See “Changes in the charters, business practices or role of the GSEs in the U.S. housing finance market generally, could significantly impact our businesses.” If the GSEs revise the PMIERs in the future to align with the final form of the ERCF, such alignment could reduce the credit that Radian Guaranty receives for reinsurance under the PMIERs, which could negatively impact our strategic approach to risk management and risk distribution.

If we are unable to obtain sufficient reinsurance on acceptable terms or to collect amounts due from our reinsurers, or if we receive less PMIERs capital relief for our reinsurance transactions, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

If the length of time that our mortgage insurance policies remain in force declines, it could result in a decrease in our future revenues.

Most of our primary IIF consists of policies for which we expect to receive premiums in the future, typically through Monthly Premium Policies, and as a result, a significant portion of our earned premiums are derived from insurance that was written in prior years. The percentage of our insurance certificates that remain in force for a specified period of time, which we refer to as the Persistency Rate, is a significant driver of our future revenues, with a lower overall Persistency Rate generally reducing our future revenues. As a result, the ultimate profitability of our mortgage insurance business is affected by mortgage prepayment speeds for the loans that we insure.

Factors affecting the length of time that our insurance remains in force include:

■prevailing mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage rates on our IIF, which affects the incentive for borrowers to refinance (i.e., lower current interest rates make it more attractive for borrowers to refinance and receive a lower interest rate);

■the current amount of equity that borrowers have in the homes underlying our IIF:

▪borrowers with significant equity in their homes may refinance their loans without the need for mortgage insurance;

▪the HPA requires servicers to cancel mortgage insurance when a borrower’s LTV ratio meets or is scheduled to meet certain levels, generally based on the original value of the home and subject to various conditions; and

▪the GSEs’ mortgage insurance cancellation guidelines, which apply more broadly than the HPA, allow for cancellation of mortgage insurance, at the borrowers’ request, based on the home’s current value if certain LTV and seasoning requirements are met and the borrowers have an acceptable payment history. Higher home price appreciation increases the likelihood of borrowers reaching the cancellation thresholds, which could negatively impact persistency. For more information about the GSEs’ guidelines and business practices and how they may change, see “Changes in the charters, business practices or role of the GSEs in the U.S. housing finance market generally, could significantly impact our businesses.”

■the credit policies of certain lenders, which impact the ability of homeowners to refinance loans; and

■economic conditions that can affect a borrower’s decision to pay off a mortgage earlier than required, including the strength of the housing market, which impacts a borrower’s prospects for selling their existing home and finding a suitable and affordable new home.

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If these or other factors cause a decrease in the length of time that our Recurring Premium Policies, for which we expect to receive premiums in the future, remain in force, our future revenues could be negatively impacted, which could negatively impact our results of operations and financial condition.

Our delegated underwriting program may subject our mortgage insurance business to unanticipated claims.

In our mortgage insurance business, we approve lenders to underwrite mortgage insurance applications based on our mortgage insurance underwriting guidelines. Each lender participating in the delegated underwriting program must be approved by our risk management group, and once we accept a lender into our delegated underwriting program, we allow the lenders to underwrite mortgage insurance applications based on our underwriting guidelines. While we have systems and processes to monitor whether certain aspects of our guidelines are being followed, under this program, a lender could commit us to insure a material number of loans with unacceptable risk profiles before we discover the problem and are able to terminate that lender’s delegated underwriting authority or pursue other rights that may be available to us, such as our rights to rescind coverage or deny claims.

Our mortgage insurance business faces intense competition.

The U.S. mortgage insurance industry is highly competitive. Our competitors primarily include other private mortgage insurers and governmental agencies, principally the FHA and VA.

We currently compete with other private mortgage insurers that are eligible to write business for the GSEs primarily on the basis of price, underwriting guidelines, overall service, customer relationships, perceived financial strength (including comparative credit ratings) and reputation. For more information about our competitive environment, including pricing competition, see “Item 1. Business—Competition.”

Pricing strategies continue to evolve in the mortgage insurance industry. In recent years, mortgage insurers generally have transitioned from a predominantly standard rate-card-based pricing model to the use of proprietary, “black box” pricing frameworks that use a spectrum of filed rates to allow for formulaic, risk-based pricing based on multiple loan, borrower and property attributes that may be quickly adjusted within certain parameters. The use of these granular risk-based pricing methodologies has contributed to a pricing environment that is more dynamic with more frequent pricing changes that can be implemented quickly, as well as an overall reduction in pricing transparency. As a result, we may not be aware of rate changes in the industry until we observe that our volume of NIW has changed. Further, in addition to “black box” pricing, industry pricing practices in recent years have also included an increased use of customized rate plans for certain customers, pursuant to which rates may be awarded to customers for only a limited period of time. The evolution of pricing strategies throughout the industry has resulted in greater volatility in our NIW and a reduction in industry pricing, including our pricing, due to the heightened competition inherent in the use of these pricing tools as compared to prior periods when standard rate cards were most prevalent.

Pricing has become the predominant competitive market factor for private mortgage insurance and an increasing number of customers are making their choice of mortgage insurance providers primarily based on the lowest price available for any particular loan. Our approach to pricing is customer-centric and flexible, as we offer a spectrum of risk-based pricing solutions for our customers that are designed to be balanced with our objectives for managing our volume of NIW and the risk/return profile of our insured portfolio. Although we believe we are well-positioned to compete effectively, our pricing strategy may not be successful and we may lose business to other competitors.

Increased pricing competition has lowered the premium yield of our insured portfolio over time as older vintage insured loans with higher premium rates run-off and have been replaced with insured loans with premium rates that generally have been lower. It is possible that pricing competition could further intensify, which could result in a decrease in our projected returns. Our increased use of reinsurance over the past several years has helped to mitigate the negative effect of declining premium rates on our expected returns. However, reinsurance may not always be available or available on terms attractive to us. See “Reinsurance may not be available, affordable or adequate to protect us against losses.”

We also compete with governmental entities, such as the FHA and VA, primarily on the basis of loan limits, pricing, credit guidelines, loss mitigation practices and terms of our insurance policies such as the ability to terminate private mortgage insurance, subject to conditions, as compared to the life-of-loan requirement under FHA policies. These governmental entities typically do not have the same capital requirements or business objectives that we and other private mortgage insurance companies have, and therefore, may have greater financial flexibility or different motivations with respect to pricing that could put us at a competitive disadvantage. In February 2023, the FHA announced a 0.30% reduction in its annual mortgage insurance premium for most new borrowers. This pricing change and other potential future changes in pricing by these governmental entities, or to the terms and conditions of their mortgage insurance or other credit enhancement products, could negatively impact our ability to compete in that market effectively, which could have an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and operating results. See “Item 1. Business—Regulation—Federal Regulation—Housing Finance Reform and the GSEs’ Business Practices” for further discussion of factors that could impact the FHA’s competitive position relative to private mortgage insurance.

In addition, as market conditions change, alternatives to private mortgage insurance may become more prevalent, which could reduce the demand for private mortgage insurance in its traditional form. For example, alternatives to private mortgage insurance could include: investors using risk mitigation and credit risk transfer techniques other than private mortgage

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insurance (or accepting credit risk without credit enhancement); lenders and other investors holding mortgages in portfolio and self-insuring; and/or lenders originating mortgages using “piggyback” structures to avoid private mortgage insurance. See “Changes in the charters, business practices or role of the GSEs in the U.S. housing finance market generally, could significantly impact our businesses” for risks related to changes in the GSEs’ business practices that could impact our competitive position, including the use of alternatives to traditional mortgage insurance to satisfy their charter requirements related to credit risk.

The competitive environment is extremely challenging given the multitude of factors discussed above. This environment, as well as potential further changes to this evolving environment, could negatively impact our franchise value, business prospects, results of operations and financial condition.

Our NIW and franchise value could decline if we lose business from significant customers.

Our mortgage insurance business depends on our relationships with our customers. Lending customers may decide to write business only with a limited number of mortgage insurers or only with certain mortgage insurers, based on their views with respect to an insurer’s pricing levels and pricing delivery methods, service levels, underwriting guidelines, loss mitigation practices, information security and other compliance programs, financial strength or other factors. Our customers place insurance with us directly on mortgage loans they originate, and they also do business with us indirectly through purchases of mortgage loans that already have our mortgage insurance coverage. Our relationships with our customers may influence both the amount of business they conduct with us directly and their willingness to continue to consider us as an approved mortgage insurance provider for loans that they purchase. For risk management purposes, our lending customers may choose to diversify the mortgage insurers with which they do business which could have a negative impact on our NIW if it results in a market share loss that we are unable to mitigate through volume from new customers or through increases in volume with existing customers.

Further, industry pricing practices in recent years have resulted in greater volatility in the volume we may receive from any particular customer as we may retain, gain or lose customers’ loan volume based solely on the competitiveness of our pricing levels, regardless of other factors such as service levels, underwriting guidelines, loss mitigation practices or financial strength. See “Our mortgage insurance business faces intense competition.”

Finally, we currently offer and may offer in the future products that could be viewed as competitive to products offered by certain of our customers, which could influence a customer’s decision as to whether to do business with us. Loss of a significant customer could result in a loss of market share and negatively impact our results of operations and financial condition.

The current financial strength ratings assigned to our mortgage insurance subsidiaries could weaken our competitive position and potential downgrades by rating agencies to these ratings and the ratings assigned to Radian Group could adversely affect the Company.

Radian Guaranty has been assigned a rating of A3 by Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s”), a rating of A- by S&P Global Ratings (“S&P”) and a rating of A- by Fitch Ratings, Inc. (“Fitch”). Radian Group has been assigned a rating of Baa3 by Moody’s, BBB- by S&P and BBB- by Fitch.

We do not believe our ratings have a material effect on our relationships with existing customers currently. However, if financial strength ratings become a more prominent consideration for lenders, we may be competitively disadvantaged by customers choosing to do business with private mortgage insurers that have higher financial strength ratings. In addition, while the current PMIERs do not include a specific ratings requirement with respect to eligibility, failure to maintain a rating for Radian Guaranty that is acceptable to the GSEs could impact Radian Guaranty’s eligibility status under the PMIERs. Further, a downgrade in our financial strength ratings could result in increased scrutiny of our financial condition by the GSEs and/or our customers, potentially resulting in a decrease in the amount of our NIW.

We believe that financial strength ratings would represent a significant consideration for participants should they seek to secure credit enhancement in the non-GSE mortgage market, which includes most non-QM loans. If the non-GSE market once again becomes receptive to the benefits of private mortgage insurance, our ability to successfully insure loans in this market could depend on our ability to secure higher ratings for our mortgage insurance subsidiaries. In addition, if legislative or regulatory changes were to alter the current state of the housing finance industry such that the GSEs no longer operate in their current capacity, we may be forced to compete in a new marketplace in which financial strength ratings may play a greater role.

The rating agencies continually review the financial strength ratings assigned to Radian Group and its mortgage insurance subsidiaries, and the ratings are subject to change. Financial strength ratings are important to maintaining confidence in our mortgage insurance and in our competitive position. Downgrades to the ratings of our mortgage insurance subsidiaries and/or Radian Group could adversely affect our cost of funds, liquidity, access to capital markets and competitive position. A downgrade in Radian Guaranty’s financial strength rating could result in increased scrutiny by the GSEs and our customers, potentially impacting our NIW. If we are unable to compete effectively in the current or any future markets as a result of the financial strength ratings assigned to our mortgage insurance subsidiaries, the franchise value and future prospects for our mortgage insurance business could be negatively affected.

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Our business depends, in part, on effective and reliable loan servicing.

We depend on third-party servicing of the loans that we insure. Dependable servicing is necessary for timely billing and premium payments to us and effective loss mitigation opportunities for delinquent or near-delinquent mortgage loans. Servicers are required to comply with a multitude of legal and regulatory requirements, procedures and standards for servicing residential mortgages, such as the CFPB’s mortgage servicing rules. While these requirements are intended to ensure a high level of servicing performance, they also impose a high cost of compliance on servicers that may impact their financial condition and their operating effectiveness. For example, the various servicing-related requirements imposed by the CARES Act, the GSEs, the FHA, CFPB and other federal and state governmental and regulatory bodies and agencies to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortgage borrowers heightened the burdens placed on servicers.

While servicing standards and processes have strengthened since the great financial crisis in 2008, challenging economic and market conditions or periods of economic stress and high mortgage defaults make it more difficult for servicers to effectively service the mortgage loans that we insure, which could reduce their loss mitigation efforts that could help limit our losses. Further, an increase in delinquent loans may result in liquidity issues for servicers. When a mortgage loan that is collateral for a mortgage-backed security becomes delinquent, the servicer is usually required to continue to pay principal and interest to the RMBS investors, generally for four months, even though the servicer is not receiving payments from borrowers. This may cause liquidity issues, especially for non-bank servicers because they do not have the same sources of liquidity that bank servicers have. A transfer of servicing resulting from liquidity issues, may increase the operational burden on servicers, cause a disruption in the servicing of delinquent loans and reduce servicers’ abilities to undertake loss mitigation efforts that could help limit our losses.

Information with respect to the mortgage loans we insure is based in large part on information reported to us by third parties, including the servicers and originators of the mortgage loans, and information provided may be subject to lapses or inaccuracies in reporting from such third parties. In many cases, we may not be aware that information reported to us is incorrect until such time as a claim is made against us under the relevant insurance policy. We may not receive monthly information from servicers for single premium policies, and may not be aware that the mortgage loans insured by such policies have been repaid. We periodically attempt to determine if coverage is still in force on such policies by asking the last servicer of record or through the periodic reconciliation of loan information with certain servicers. It may be possible that our reports continue to reflect, as active, policies on mortgage loans that have been repaid. If we experience a disruption in the servicing of mortgage loans covered by our insurance policies or a failure by servicers to appropriately report the status of a loan, this could impact the amount of assets Radian Guaranty is required to hold under the PMIERs or ultimately contribute to a rise in claims among those loans, which could negatively impact our business, financial condition and operating results.

Under the terms of our Master Policies in place since 2014, mortgage insurance premiums are not required to be paid following an event of default. However, if a defaulted loan then cures and becomes current, all mortgage insurance premiums must also be brought current for our insurance coverage to continue, including all premiums that were not paid during the period following the event of default and through the date of cure. Because premiums must be brought current upon a cure, mortgage servicers typically continue to pay mortgage insurance premiums while loans remain in default, understanding that Radian Guaranty will refund these premiums if the loans fail to cure and ultimately go to claim. If we fail to receive mortgage insurance premiums following mortgage defaults, Radian Guaranty’s cash flow could be materially reduced, potentially requiring Radian Guaranty to liquidate investments at a loss to pay future claims or otherwise requiring us to alter our investment strategy.

We face risks associated with our contract underwriting business.

We provide third-party contract underwriting services for our mortgage insurance customers. Generally, we offer limited indemnification to our contract underwriting customers. In addition to indemnification, we typically have limited loss mitigation defenses available to us for loans that we have underwritten through our contract underwriting services. As a consequence, our results of operations could be negatively impacted if we are required to indemnify our customers for material underwriting errors in our contract underwriting services.

A decrease in the volume of mortgage originations could result in fewer opportunities for us to write new mortgage insurance business and conduct our homegenius businesses.

The amount of new mortgage insurance business we write and real estate transactions we support through our homegenius business depends, among other things, on a steady flow of low down payment mortgages that require private mortgage insurance and on the volume of real estate transactions that benefit from our services or products. The volume of mortgage originations is impacted by macroeconomic conditions and specific events that impact the housing finance and real estate markets, most of which are beyond our control, including housing prices, inflationary pressures, unemployment levels, interest rate changes, the availability of credit, other national and regional economic conditions and geopolitical events. In “Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations,” see “Overview—Current Operating Environment” and “Key Factors Affecting Our Results—Mortgage Insurance.” Factors affecting the volume of low down payment mortgages include:

■the health and stability of the financial services industry;

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■restrictions on mortgage credit due to changes in lender underwriting standards, capital requirements affecting lenders, regulatory requirements and the health of the private securitization market;

■mortgage interest rates;

■the health of the domestic economy generally, including in particular unemployment levels and the degree of consumer confidence, as well as specific conditions in regional and local economies;

■housing supply and affordability;

■tax laws and policies and their impact on, among other things, deductions for mortgage insurance premiums, mortgage interest payments and real estate taxes;

■demographic trends, including the rate of household formation;

■the rate of home price appreciation;

■government housing policy encouraging affordability and accessibility of mortgage loans, in particular to first-time homebuyers; and

■the practices of the GSEs, including the extent to which the guaranty fees, loan level price adjustments, credit underwriting guidelines and other business terms provided by the GSEs affect the cost of mortgages and lenders’ willingness to extend credit for low down payment mortgages.

As the overall volume of new mortgage originations declines, we are subject to increased competition and we could experience a reduced opportunity to write new insurance business and provide our homegenius products and services, which could negatively affect our business prospects, results of operations and financial condition.

We are exposed to risks associated with our homegenius businesses that could negatively affect our results of operations and financial condition.

Our homegenius businesses expose us to certain risks that may negatively affect our results of operations and financial condition, including, among others, the following:

■Our homegenius businesses are heavily focused on digital products and services, including proprietary platforms as a service solutions, that depend on our ability to develop, launch and implement new and innovative technologies and digital solutions. As a result, this business is particularly exposed to: challenges associated with new and rapidly evolving technologies and business environments; the long sales cycle associated with, and customer acceptance of, our digital product and service offerings; the costs associated with the development and launch of these technologies and products; our ability to successfully integrate new technologies into our existing systems; and the risk that our digital product and services offerings fail to operate as expected or planned or expose us to additional cybersecurity or third-party risks;

■Our homegenius businesses depend on our relationships with our customers. Our homegenius revenue currently is dependent on a limited number of large customers that represent a significant proportion of our homegenius total revenues. The loss or reduction of business from one or more of these significant customers could adversely affect the level of our homegenius revenues. In addition, Radian Guaranty does business with many of these significant customers. In the event of a dispute between a significant customer and either of our business segments, the overall customer relationship for Radian could be negatively impacted;

■Due to the transactional nature of our business, our homegenius segment revenues are subject to fluctuation from period to period and are difficult to predict;

■The services we offer through our homegenius businesses are influenced by the level of overall activity in the mortgage, real estate and mortgage finance markets generally. When real estate transaction volumes decline, as occurred during 2023, we are likely to experience less demand for our real estate and title services;

■homegenius Real Estate is a licensed real estate brokerage and provides real estate brokerage services in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. As a licensed real estate brokerage, homegenius Real Estate receives residential real estate information from various multiple listing services. homegenius Real Estate receives this information, which it uses in its business to provide real estate services (e.g., home search and brokering real estate transactions) and provide valuation products and services that comprise many of our homegenius product offerings, pursuant to the terms of agreements with the multiple listing service (“MLS”) providers. If these agreements were to terminate or homegenius Real Estate otherwise were to lose access to this information, it could negatively impact homegenius Real Estate’s ability to conduct its business and our future real estate strategies. In addition to MLS data, we depend on access to data from a variety of other external sources to maintain our databases and grow our businesses. If we were to lose access to one or more of these data sources, the quality, pricing and availability of our homegenius products and services may be negatively impacted;

■By their nature, title claims are often complex, vary greatly in dollar amounts and are affected by economic and market conditions and the legal environment existing at the time of settlement of the claims. Estimating future title loss payments is difficult because of the complex nature of title claims, the long periods of time over which claims are administered and paid, significantly varying dollar amounts of individual claims and other factors. From time to time, we could experience

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large losses or an overall worsening of our loss payment experience in regard to the frequency or severity of claims that require us to record additional charges to our claims loss reserve. These loss events are unpredictable and may require us to increase our title loss reserves and could adversely affect the financial performance of our homegenius segment; and

■Our homegenius businesses operate in a highly competitive environment. Our competitors vary in size and in the scope and breadth of the services they offer, and many have substantial resources. We expect that the markets in which we compete will continue to attract new competitors, technologies and products that are designed to disrupt traditional business models. There can be no assurance that our homegenius businesses will be able to compete successfully.

Any of these factors could negatively affect our homegenius businesses and could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.

We rely upon proprietary technology and information, and if we are unable to protect our intellectual property rights, it could have a material adverse effect on us.

Our success depends, in part, upon our intellectual property rights. We rely primarily on a combination of copyrights, trade secrets, trademarks, nondisclosure and other contractual restrictions on copying, distributing and creating derivative products to protect our proprietary technology and information. This protection is limited, and our intellectual property could be used by others without our consent. In addition, although we have patents pending and may file future patent applications, patents may not be issued, and, if issued may not prevent the development of competitive products. Any infringement, disclosure, loss, invalidity of or failure to protect our intellectual property could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. Moreover, litigation may be necessary to enforce or protect our intellectual property rights, to protect our trade secrets or to determine the validity and scope of the proprietary rights of others. Such litigation could be time-consuming, result in substantial costs and diversion of resources and could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations.

We face risks associated with our mortgage conduit business.

Our mortgage conduit business is conducted through Radian Mortgage Capital, which acquires and aggregates residential mortgage loans with the intention of then selling the loans directly to mortgage investors or distributing them into the capital markets through private label securitizations. To date, Radian Mortgage Capital has only executed the distribution of loans through sales to mortgage investors. Subject to market conditions, Radian Mortgage Capital also expects to distribute the loans into the capital markets through private label securitizations in the future. Radian Mortgage Capital finances its acquisition of residential mortgage loans primarily by utilizing short-term uncommitted debt under the Master Repurchase Agreements. Radian Mortgage Capital is the master servicer for the loans it acquires and has engaged a subservicer to manage the day-to-day servicing operations for its acquired mortgage loan portfolio. As a result of our mortgage conduit business, we are exposed to certain risks that may negatively affect our results of operations and financial condition, including, among others, the following:

■Potential breaches of the financial and other covenants under our Master Repurchase Agreements could result in our being required to immediately repay all outstanding amounts borrowed under these facilities and these facilities being unavailable to use for future financing needs, as well as potentially triggering cross-defaults under other debt agreements.

■Interest rate fluctuations can negatively impact our mortgage conduit business.

▪Changes in interest rates and other factors could cause the cost of financing a mortgage asset to exceed the income generated by that mortgage asset. An increase in interest rates generally increases the overall cost to finance our acquisitions of mortgage loans and reduces the fair value of mortgage loans pledged as collateral for our payment obligations.

▪We have an interest rate risk hedging program and seek to hedge interest rate risks associated with our acquisition and temporary retention of mortgage assets; however, changes in interest rates, securities spreads and other factors could cause net losses on the mortgage assets and our hedge position. Given the uncertainty of future market conditions, there can be no assurance that our hedging activity will be fully effective.

■Under our Master Repurchase Agreements we pledge mortgage assets as security for our payment obligations, and these agreements contain margin requirements that require us to pledge additional collateral if the value of previously pledged collateral declines below certain levels. Therefore, if the value of the collateral decreases below certain levels, we could be required to satisfy a margin call under the Master Repurchase Agreements. In addition, certain of our hedges are also subject to margin calls. As the conduit business grows, any of these margin calls could have a material adverse effect on Radian Mortgage Capital’s liquidity position and could require Radian Group to satisfy the margin requirements pursuant to its guarantee of Radian Mortgage Capital’s obligations under the Master Repurchase Agreements or through capital contributions to Radian Mortgage Capital, which could impact Radian Group’s available liquidity. See “Our sources of liquidity may be insufficient to fund our obligations.”

■If the secondary markets for mortgages or for residential mortgage-backed securities experiences any significant disruption or illiquidity, we might be unable to sell our mortgage assets in a timely manner or at anticipated prices, and we

Table of ContentsGlossaryPart I. Item 1A. Risk Factors

may be forced to hold and finance a larger inventory of mortgage assets than we anticipate, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, liquidity and results of operations.

■Because we do not originate residential loans, the growth of our mortgage conduit business may be limited if mortgage loans generally are not available for purchase. Mortgage loan originations fluctuate from period to period, and a reduced volume of loan originations that satisfy our acquisition guidelines may make it difficult for us to acquire loans.

■When we purchase mortgage loans, representations and warranties are made to us by sellers regarding, among other things, certain characteristics of those mortgage loans, which we seek to verify through underwriting and due diligence. When we sell mortgage loans, we make similar representations and warranties to purchasers. Losses could result if representations or warranties we make to purchasers are inaccurate, including representations or warranties made in reliance on inaccurate representations or warranties that are made to us.

■We rely on a third-party service provider to service the mortgage loans for which we hold the right to service and serve as the master servicer. Our reliance on this third-party servicer exposes us to certain risks, including the risk that the subservicer may not properly service the loan in compliance with applicable laws and regulations or the contractual provisions governing their subservicing role, in which case we may be held liable for the subservicer’s improper acts or omissions. Failure to take steps to ensure that third-party servicers are servicing the loans we acquire appropriately could expose us to penalties or other claims or enforcement actions that could negatively impact our business prospects, results of operations and financial condition.

■Under the Investment Company Act of 1940, an investment company is required to register with the SEC and is subject to extensive restrictive regulations relating to, among other things, operating methods, management, capital structure, dividends, and transactions with affiliates. We intend to conduct our businesses and operations so that Radian Mortgage Capital is not required to register as an investment company under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Failure to continue to qualify for exemption from the Investment Company Act of 1940 could result in significant restrictions on our business activities, prohibitions from engaging in certain business activities and subject us to burdensome compliance requirements and have a material adverse effect on our business prospects, results of operations and financial condition.

If the models used in our businesses are inaccurate, it could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

We employ proprietary and third-party models for a wide range of purposes, including, among others, the following: projecting losses, premiums, expenses, and returns; pricing products; estimating reserves; evaluating risk; determining internal capital requirements; and performing stress testing. These models rely on estimates, projections and assumptions that are inherently uncertain and may not always operate as intended. This can be especially true when extraordinary events occur such as periods of extreme inflation, pandemics, or environmental disasters related to changing climatic conditions. In addition, our models are being continuously updated over time. Changes in models or model assumptions could lead to material changes in our future expectations, returns, or financial results. The models we employ are complex, which could increase our risk of error in their design, implementation, or use. Also, the associated data, assumptions and calculations that we input into our models may not always be correct or accurate and the controls we have in place to mitigate these risks may not be effective in all cases. The risks related to our models may increase when we change assumptions, methodologies, or modeling platforms. Moreover, we may use information we receive through enhancements to refine or otherwise change existing assumptions and/or methodologies.

Actual or perceived instability in the financial services industry or non-performance by financial institutions or transactional counterparties could materially impact our business.

We routinely execute transactions with counterparties in the financial services industry, including commercial banks, brokers and dealers, investment banks, reinsurers, and our customers. Many of these transactions expose us to credit risk and losses in the event of a default by a counterparty or customer. Any such losses could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Limited liquidity, defaults, non-performance or other adverse developments that affect financial institutions, transactional counterparties or other companies in the financial services industry with which we do business, or concerns or rumors about the possibility of such events, have in the past and may in the future lead to market-wide liquidity problems. Such conditions may negatively impact our results and/or financial condition. While we are unable to predict the full impact of these conditions, they may lead to among other things: disruption to the mortgage market, delayed access to deposits or other financial assets; losses of deposits in excess of federally-insured levels; reduced access to, or increased costs associated with, funding sources and other credit arrangements adequate to finance our current or future operations; increased regulatory pressure; the inability of our counterparties and/or customers to meet their obligations to us; economic downturn; and rising unemployment levels.