RADIAN GROUP INC

Table of ContentsGlossaryPart II. Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Key Factors Affecting Our Results

The following sections discuss certain key drivers affecting our Mortgage Insurance and homegenius businesses, as well as other key factors affecting our results.

NIW and Related Drivers

NIW increases our IIF and our premiums written and earned. NIW is affected by the overall size of the mortgage origination market, the penetration percentage of private mortgage insurance into the overall mortgage origination market and our market share of the private mortgage insurance market.

The overall mortgage origination market is influenced by macroeconomic factors such as household formation, household composition, home affordability, interest rates, housing markets in general (which are subject to seasonality), credit availability and the impact of various legislative and regulatory actions that may influence the housing and mortgage finance industries.

The penetration percentage of private mortgage insurance is mainly influenced by: (i) the competitiveness of private mortgage insurance for GSE conforming loans compared to FHA and VA insured loans and (ii) the relative percentage of mortgage originations that are for purchased homes versus refinances. We believe, for example, that given current pricing levels, which are subject to change, the generally better execution available through the GSEs for borrowers with higher FICO scores and lender preferences are factors that currently provide a competitive advantage for private mortgage insurers. See “Mortgage Insurance Portfolio—New Insurance Written.”

Private mortgage insurance penetration in the insurable market has generally been higher on new mortgages for purchased homes than on the refinance of existing mortgages, because average LTVs are typically higher on home purchases, and therefore, these lower down payment loans are more likely to require mortgage insurance. Radian Guaranty’s share of the private mortgage insurance market is influenced by competition in that market. See “Item 1. Business—Competition.”

For a historical perspective on key market drivers, see the charts entitled “Mortgage origination market” and “Private mortgage insurance penetration of mortgage origination market” in “Mortgage Insurance Portfolio—New Insurance Written.”

IIF and Related Drivers

Our IIF is one of the primary drivers of our future premiums that we expect to earn over time. Although not reflected in the current period financial statements, nor in our reported book value, we expect our IIF to generate substantial earnings in future periods due to the high credit quality of our current mortgage insurance portfolio and our expectations for future Persistency Rates.

The ultimate profitability of our mortgage insurance business is affected by the impact of mortgage prepayment speeds on the mix of business we write. The measure for assessing the impact of policy cancellations on our IIF is our Persistency Rate, defined as the percentage of IIF that remains in force over a period of time. Assuming all other factors remain constant, over the life of the policies, prepayment speeds have an inverse impact on IIF and the expected revenue from our Monthly Premium Policies. Slower loan prepayment speeds, demonstrated by a higher Persistency Rate, result in more IIF remaining in place, providing increased revenue from Monthly Premium Policies over time as premium payments continue. Earlier than anticipated loan prepayments, demonstrated by a lower Persistency Rate, reduce IIF and the revenue from our Monthly Premium Policies. Among other factors, prepayment speeds may be affected by changes in interest rates and other macroeconomic factors. A rising interest rate environment generally will reduce refinancing activity and result in lower prepayments, whereas a declining interest rate environment generally will increase the level of refinancing activity and therefore increase prepayments.

In contrast to Monthly Premium Policies, when Single Premium Policies are canceled by the insured because the loan has been paid off or otherwise, we accelerate the recognition of any remaining unearned premiums, net of any refunds that may be owed to the borrower. Although these cancellations reduce IIF, assuming all other factors remain constant, the profitability of our Single Premium business increases when Persistency Rates are lower. As a result, we believe that writing a mix of Single Premium Policies and Monthly Premium Policies has the potential to moderate the overall impact on our results if actual prepayment speeds are significantly different from expectations. However, the impact of this moderating effect may be affected by the amount of reinsurance we obtain on portions of our portfolio, with the Single Premium QSR Program currently reducing the proportion of retained Single Premium Policies in our portfolio.

At December 31, 2023, approximately 89% of our total Primary Mortgage RIF are Monthly and Other Recurring Premium Policies. Based on the current composition of our mortgage insurance portfolio, with Monthly Premium Policies comprising a larger proportion of our total portfolio than Single Premium Policies, an increase in IIF generally has a corresponding positive impact on premiums earned, while a decrease in IIF generally has a corresponding negative impact on premiums earned.

Table of ContentsGlossaryPart II. Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Cancellations of our insurance policies as a result of prepayments and other reductions of IIF, such as Rescissions of coverage and claims paid, generally have a negative effect on premiums earned over time. See “Mortgage Insurance Portfolio—Insurance and Risk in Force” for more information about the levels and characteristics of our IIF.

Premiums

The premium rates we charge for our insurance are based on a number of borrower, loan and property characteristics. The mortgage insurance industry is highly competitive and private mortgage insurers compete with each other and with the FHA and VA with respect to price and other factors.

Our pricing is risk-based and is intended to generally align with the capital requirements under the PMIERs, while also considering pricing trends within the private mortgage insurance industry among other factors. As a result, our pricing is expected to generate relatively consistent returns across the credit spectrum. In developing our pricing strategies, we monitor various competitive and economic factors while seeking to maximize the long-term economic value of our portfolio by balancing credit risk, lender and geographic concentration risk, profitability and volume considerations, and aim to achieve an overall risk-adjusted rate of return on capital given our modeled performance expectations. Our actual portfolio returns will depend on a number of factors, including economic conditions, the mix of NIW that we are able to write, our pricing, the amount of reinsurance we use and the level of capital we hold, including amounts that may be in excess of minimum PMIERs financial and statutory capital requirements.

Our pricing actions gradually affect our results over time, as existing IIF cancels and is replaced with NIW at current pricing. See “Mortgage Insurance Portfolio—New Insurance Written” and “Liquidity and Capital Resources—Mortgage Insurance” for additional information.

As described above, premiums on our mortgage insurance products are generally paid either on an installment basis, pursuant to Monthly Premium Policies, or in a single payment at the time of loan origination, pursuant to Single Premium Policies. See “Item 1. Business—Mortgage Insurance—Pricing—Primary Mortgage Insurance Premiums.” As discussed above, the ultimate profitability of Single Premium Policies may be higher or lower than expected due to the impact of prepayment speeds. See “IIF and Related Drivers” above.

Monthly Premium Policies typically provide a level monthly premium for the first 10 years of the policy, followed by a lower level monthly premium thereafter. Generally, a borrower is able to cancel the policy when the LTV reaches 80% of the original value, and the servicer is required to review the policy for automatic cancellation on the date the LTV is scheduled to reach 78% of the original value. As a result, the volume of loans that remain insured after 10 years and would be subject to the premium reset is generally not material in relation to the total loans originated. However, to the extent the volume of loans resetting from year to year varies significantly, the trend in earned premiums may also vary.

Losses

Incurred losses represent the estimated future claim payments on newly defaulted insured loans as well as any change in our claim estimates for existing defaults, including changes in our estimates with respect to the frequency, magnitude and timing of anticipated losses on defaulted loans. Other factors influencing incurred losses include:

■The mix of credit characteristics in our total direct RIF (e.g., loans with higher risk characteristics, or loans with layered risk that combine multiple higher-risk attributes within the same loan, generally result in more delinquencies and claims). See “Mortgage Insurance Portfolio—Insurance and Risk in Force;”

■The average loan size (relatively higher priced properties with larger average loan amounts may result in higher incurred losses);

■The percentage of coverage on insured loans (higher percentages of insurance coverage generally correlate with higher incurred losses) and the presence of structural mitigants such as deductibles or stop losses;

■Changes in housing values (declines in housing values generally make it more difficult for borrowers to sell a home to avoid default or for the property to be sold to mitigate a claim, and also may negatively affect a borrower’s willingness to continue to make mortgage payments when the home value is less than the mortgage balance; conversely, increases in housing values tend to reduce the level of defaults as well as make it more likely that foreclosures will result in the loan being satisfied);

■The distribution of claims over the life cycle of a portfolio (historically, claims are relatively low during the first two years after a loan is originated and then increase over a period of several years before declining; however, several factors can impact and change this cycle, including the economic environment, the quality of the underwriting of the loan, characteristics of the mortgage loan, the credit profile of the borrower, housing prices and unemployment rates); and

■Our ability to mitigate potential losses through Rescissions, Claim Denials, cancellations and Claim Curtailments on claims submitted to us. In “Item 1A. Risk Factors,” see “Our Loss Mitigation Activity could negatively impact our customer relationships.”

Table of ContentsGlossaryPart II. Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Risk Distribution

We use third-party reinsurance in our mortgage insurance business to manage capital and risk in an effort to optimize the amounts and types of capital and risk distribution deployed against insured risk. We have distributed risk through traditional quota share and excess-of-loss reinsurance arrangements, as well as to investors through the capital markets using mortgage insurance-linked notes transactions. See “IIF and Related Drivers” above.

When we enter into a quota share reinsurance agreement, the reinsurer receives a premium and, in exchange, agrees to insure an agreed upon portion of incurred losses. These arrangements reduce our earned premiums but also reduce our net RIF, which provides capital relief, including under the PMIERs financial requirements. In addition, our incurred losses are reduced by any incurred losses ceded in accordance with the reinsurance agreement, which reduces the volatility of our provision for losses in certain stressed economic environments, and we often receive ceding commissions from the reinsurer as part of the transaction, which, in turn, reduce our reported operating expenses and policy acquisition costs.

Our XOL Program accesses reinsurance coverage through traditional excess-of-loss reinsurance arrangements, as well as through the capital markets through the Eagle Re Issuers’ mortgage insurance-linked notes transactions. Our XOL Program reduces our earned premiums, but also reduces our net RIF and PMIERs financial requirements, and potentially our incurred losses, which are allocated in accordance with the structure of the transaction. The Eagle Re Issuers are special purpose VIEs that are not consolidated in our consolidated financial statements because we do not have the unilateral power to direct those activities that are significant to their economic performance.

See Note 8 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for more information about our reinsurance arrangements, including the total assets and liabilities of the Eagle Re Issuers.

Investment Income

Investment income is determined primarily by the investment balances held and the average yield on our overall investment portfolio.

Other Operating Expenses

Our other operating expenses include salaries and other base employee costs, variable and share-based incentive compensation and other general operating expenses, such as fees for professional and consulting services, software, rent and depreciation, among other costs. Employee related expenses are driven by our headcount, which can fluctuate due to the amount of our NIW and IIF, as well as our plans for other business initiatives. Our other operating expenses may also fluctuate due to the impact of performance on our incentive compensation programs, as a result of our pay-for-performance approach to compensation that is based on the level of achievement of both short-term and long-term goals.

These operating expenses are reported net of ceding commissions associated with our QSR Program. As a result, changes to our QSR Program and the amount of our ceded premiums earned also can impact our other operating expenses.

Premiums

We earn net premiums on title insurance through Radian Title Insurance. Demand for title insurance may be impacted by general marketplace competition in the real estate title industry, coupled with housing market related conditions such as new home sales, the sizes of the real estate purchase and refinance markets and interest rate fluctuations.

Services Revenue

Our homegenius segment is dependent upon overall activity in the mortgage finance and real estate markets, as well as market receptivity to the products we offer. Due, in part, to the transactional nature of the business, revenues for our homegenius segment are subject to fluctuations from period to period, including seasonal fluctuations that reflect the activities in these markets. Sales volume is also affected by the number of competing companies and alternative products offered in the market. We believe the diversity of services we offer has the potential to produce fee income from the homegenius segment throughout various mortgage finance environments and economic cycles, although market conditions can significantly impact the mix and amount of fee income we generate in any particular period. See “Item 1. Business—homegenius—Overview” for more information on our homegenius services.

The homegenius segment is dependent on a limited number of large customers that represent a significant portion of its revenues. Generally, our contracts do not contain volume commitments and may be terminated by clients at any time. While access to Radian Guaranty’s mortgage insurance customer base provides additional opportunities to expand the homegenius segment’s existing customers, an unexpected loss of a major customer could significantly impact the level of homegenius revenue.

Table of ContentsGlossaryPart II. Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Our homegenius revenue is primarily generated under fixed-price contracts. Under fixed-price contracts, we agree to perform the specified services and deliverables for a predetermined per-unit price. To the extent our actual direct and allocated indirect costs decrease or increase from the estimates upon which the price was negotiated, we will generate more or less profit, respectively, or could incur a loss. See Note 2 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for more information on revenue recognition policies for our homegenius segment.

Cost of Services

Our cost of services is primarily affected by our level of services revenue and the number of employees providing products and services for our homegenius businesses. Our cost of services primarily consists of employee compensation and related payroll benefits, and to a lesser extent, other costs of providing services such as travel and related expenses incurred in providing client services, costs paid to outside vendors, data acquisition costs and other costs to maintain software platforms that directly support our businesses. The level of these costs may fluctuate as market rates of compensation change, or if there is decreased availability or a loss of qualified employees.

Operating Expenses

Our operating expenses primarily consist of salaries and benefits not classified as cost of services because they are related to employees, such as sales and corporate employees, who are not directly involved in providing client services. Operating expenses also include other selling, general and administrative expenses, depreciation and allocations of corporate general and administrative expenses.

See “Item 1. Business—homegenius—Overview” and Note 1 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information regarding the homegenius segment.

Net Gains (Losses) on Investments and Other Financial Instruments

In addition, net gains (losses) on investments and other financial instruments also may impact our consolidated results in the ordinary course. The recognition of realized investment gains or losses can vary significantly across periods, as the activity is highly discretionary based on the timing of individual securities sales due to such factors as market opportunities, our tax and capital profile and overall market cycles. Unrealized gains and losses arise primarily from changes in the market value of our investments that are classified as trading or equity securities, as well as changes in the value of mortgage loans held by Radian Mortgage Capital. These valuation adjustments may not necessarily result in realized economic gains or losses.