MGIC INVESTMENT CORP

MORTGAGE ORIGINATIONS

Our NIW is affected by the total mortgage originations, the percentage of total mortgage originations using PMI, and our market share within the PMI industry.

The total amount of mortgage originations is generally influenced by the level of new and existing home sales, interest rates, the percentage of homes purchased for cash, and the level of refinance activity. PMI market share of total mortgage originations is influenced by the mix of purchase and refinance originations. PMI market share is also impacted by the market share of total originations of the FHA, VA, USDA, and other alternatives to mortgage insurance, including GSE programs that may reduce or eliminate the demand for mortgage insurance.

Total mortgage originations in 2023, as compared to 2022, reflects higher interest rates and home prices, contributing to a decrease in home purchase activity in 2023. Total mortgage originations are forecasted to be higher in 2024, in comparison to 2023. Both purchase and refinance markets are forecasted to increase in 2024 when compared to estimates for 2023.

E - Estimated, F- Forecast

Source: Fannie Mae and MBA estimates/forecasts as of January 2024. Amounts represent the average of all sources.

The total estimated mortgage insurance volume is shown below.

MORTGAGE INSURANCE INDUSTRY

We compete against five other private mortgage insurers, as well as government mortgage insurance programs, including those offered by the FHA, VA, and USDA. Refer to"Overview - Business Environment - Competition" for a discussion of our competitive position.

PMI's market share is primarily impacted by competition from government mortgage insurance programs. The PMI industry's market share in 2023 decreased compared to the market share in 2022.

MGIC's estimated market share within the PMI industry is shown in the table below. Our risk-based pricing engine, MiQ, allows for frequent granular pricing changes including those to address our view of emerging and evolving market conditions and risk. Additional discussion of the competitive landscape of the industry refer to"Overview - Business Environment - Competition" and additional discussion of pricing practices refer to "Overview - Business Environment - Pricing Practices"

NEW INSURANCE WRITTEN

The following tables provide information about loan characteristics associated with our NIW.

The percentage of our NIW with DTI ratios over 45% and LTVs over 95% will fluctuate based on the mortgage conditions that could include the percentage of NIW from purchase transactions, changes in home prices, changes in mortgage rates, and GSE activities.

We consider a variety of loan characteristics when accessing the risk of a loan. The following tables provides information about loans with one or more of the following characteristics associated with our NIW: LTV ratios greater than 95%, mortgages with borrowers having FICO scores below 680, including those with borrowers having FICO scores of 620-679, and mortgages with borrowers having DTI ratios greater than 45%, each attribute as determined at the time of loan origination.

IIF AND RIF

Our IIF was flat in 2023, compared to 2022. Our IIF increased 7.6% in 2022 as NIW was partially offset by cancellations. Cancellation activity is impacted by refinancing activity, policies cancelled when borrowers achieve the required amount of home equity, and cancellations due to claim payment. Refinancing activity has historically been affected by the level of mortgage interest rates and the level of home price appreciation. Cancellations generally move inversely to the change in the direction of interest rates, although they generally lag a change in direction.

Annual Persistency. Our annual persistency at December 31, 2023 was 86.1% compared to 82.2% at December 31, 2022. Since 2018, our annual persistency ranged from a high of 86.3% at September 30, 2023 to a low of 60.7% at March 31, 2021. Our persistency rate is primarily affected by the level of current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates on our IIF, which affects the vulnerability of the IIF to refinancing; and the current amount of equity that borrowers have in the homes underlying our IIF.

CREDIT PROFILE OF OUR PRIMARY RIF

Our 2009 and later books possess significantly improved risk characteristics when compared to our 2005-2008 books. Modification and refinance programs, such as HAMP and HARP, which expired at the end of 2016 and 2018, respectively, but have been replaced by other GSE modification programs, make outstanding loans more affordable to borrowers with the goal of reducing the number of foreclosures. As of December 31, 2023, modifications accounted for approximately 3.6% of our total primary RIF, compared to 4.2% at December 31, 2022. Loans associated with 87.3% of all our modifications were current as of December 31, 2023. For additional information on the composition of our primary RIF see "Business - Our Products and Services"

The composition of our primary RIF by policy year as of December 31, 2023 and 2022 is shown below:

POOL AND OTHER INSURANCE

MGIC has written no new pool insurance since 2008, however, for a variety of reasons, including responding to capital market alternatives to private mortgage insurance and customer demands, MGIC may write pool risk in the future. Our direct pool RIF was $256 million ($186 million on pool policies with aggregate loss limits and $70 million on pool policies without aggregate loss limits) at December 31, 2023 compared to $276 million ($196 million on pool policies with aggregate loss limits and $80 million on pool policies without aggregate loss limits) at December 31, 2022. If claim payments associated with a specific pool reach the aggregate loss limit, the remaining IIF within the pool would be cancelled and any remaining defaults under the pool would be removed from our default inventory.

In connection with the GSEs' CRT programs, an insurance subsidiary of MGIC provides insurance and reinsurance covering portions of the credit risk related to certain reference pools of mortgages acquired by the GSEs. Our RIF, as reported to us, related to these programs was approximately $310 million and $226 million as of December 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively.