HARTFORD FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP INC
For the period ended Dec 31, 2023. Filed Feb 23, 2024.
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FY2023 · Filed Feb 23, 2024
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Critical Accounting Estimates
The preparation of financial statements in conformity with U.S. GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results could differ, and in the past have differed, from those estimates.
The Company has identified the following estimates as critical in that they involve a higher degree of judgment and are subject to a significant degree of variability:
property and casualty insurance product reserves, net of reinsurance;
group benefit LTD reserves, net of reinsurance;
evaluation of goodwill for impairment;
valuation of investments and derivative instruments including evaluation of credit losses on fixed maturities, AFS and ACL on mortgage loans; and
contingencies relating to corporate litigation and regulatory matters.
In developing these estimates management makes subjective and complex judgments that are inherently uncertain and subject to material change as facts and circumstances develop. Although variability is inherent in these estimates, management believes the amounts provided are appropriate based upon the facts available upon compilation of the financial statements. Certain of these estimates are particularly sensitive to market conditions, and deterioration and/or volatility in the worldwide debt or equity markets could have a material impact on the Consolidated Financial Statements.
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|PROPERTY & CASUALTY INSURANCE PRODUCT RESERVES, NET OF REINSURANCE
Loss and LAE Reserves, Net of Reinsurance as of December 31, 2023
| Commercial Lines | Personal Lines | Property & CasualtyOther Operations | Total Property &Casualty Insurance | % Total Reserves-net | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workers’ compensation | $12,212 | $— | $— | $12,212 | 44.7% |
| General liability | 5,168 | — | — | 5,168 | 18.9% |
| Marine | 295 | — | — | 295 | 1.1% |
| Package business [1] | 2,281 | — | — | 2,281 | 8.3% |
| Commercial property | 540 | — | — | 540 | 2.0% |
| Automobile liability | 1,351 | 1,572 | — | 2,923 | 10.7% |
| Automobile physical damage | 25 | 84 | — | 109 | 0.4% |
| Professional liability | 1,449 | — | — | 1,449 | 5.3% |
| Bond | 458 | — | — | 458 | 1.7% |
| Homeowners | — | 372 | — | 372 | 1.3% |
| Asbestos and environmental | 84 | 8 | 248 | 340 | 1.2% |
| Assumed reinsurance | 562 | — | 76 | 638 | 2.3% |
| All other | 157 | 4 | 402 | 563 | 2.1% |
| Total reserves-net | 24,582 | 2,040 | 726 | 27,348 | 100.0% |
| Reinsurance and other recoverables | 4,599 | 28 | 2,069 | 6,696 | |
| Total reserves-gross | $29,181 | $2,068 | $2,795 | $34,044 |
[1]Commercial Lines policy packages that include property and general liability coverages are generally referred to as the package line of business.
P&C Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves, Net of Reinsurance, by Segment as of December 31, 2023
For descriptions of the coverages provided under the lines of business shown above, see Part I - Item1, Business.
Overview of Reserving for Property and Casualty Insurance Claims
It typically takes many months or years to pay claims incurred under a property and casualty insurance product; accordingly, the Company must establish reserves at the time the loss is incurred. Most of the Company’s policies provide for occurrence-based coverage where the loss is incurred when a claim event happens like an automobile accident, house or building fire or injury to an employee under a workers’ compensation policy. Some of the Company's policies, mostly for directors and officers insurance and errors and omissions insurance, are claims-made policies where the loss is incurred in the period the claim event is reported to the Company even if the loss event itself occurred in an earlier period.
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves provide for the estimated ultimate costs of paying claims under insurance policies written by the Company, less amounts paid to date. These reserves include estimates for both claims that have been reported and those that have not yet been reported, and include estimates of all expenses associated with processing and settling these claims. Case reserves are established by a claims handler on each individual claim and are adjusted as new information becomes known during the course of handling the claim. Incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) reserves represent the difference between the estimated ultimate cost of all claims and the actual loss and loss adjustment expenses reported to the
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Company by claimants to date (“reported losses”). Reported losses represent cumulative loss and loss adjustment expenses paid plus case reserves for outstanding reported claims. For most lines, Company actuaries evaluate the total reserves (IBNR and case reserves) on an accident year basis. An accident year is the calendar year in which a loss is incurred, or, in the case of claims-made policies, the calendar year in which a loss is reported. For certain lines acquired from the Navigators Group book of business, total reserves are evaluated on a policy year basis and then converted to accident year. A policy year is the calendar year in which a policy incepts.
Factors that Change Reserve Estimates-Reserve estimates can change over time because of unexpected changes in the external environment. Higher than expected inflation in claim costs, such as with medical care, hospital care, automobile parts, wages and home and building repair, would cause claims to settle for more than they are initially reserved. Changes in the economy can cause an increase or decrease in the number of reported claims (claim frequency). For example, an improving economy could result in more automobile miles driven and a higher number of automobile reported claims, or a change in economic conditions can lead to more or fewer workers’ compensation reported claims. An increase in the number or percentage of claims litigated can increase the average settlement amount per claim (claim severity). Changes in the judicial environment can affect interpretations of damages and how policy coverage applies which could increase or decrease claim severity. Over time, judges or juries in certain jurisdictions may be more inclined to determine liability and award damages. New legislation can also change how damages are defined or change the statutes of limitations for the filing of civil suits, resulting in greater claim frequency or severity. In addition, new types of injuries may arise from exposures not contemplated when the policies were written. Past examples include pharmaceutical products, silica, lead paint, sexual molestation and sexual abuse and construction defects. Additionally, social inflationary pressures, such as increased litigation funding and aggressive tactics by plaintiff attorneys, can introduce the risk of potentially increasing jury awards and an increase in the percentage of litigated claims impacting both general liability and automobile claim frequency and severity.
Reserve estimates can also change over time because of changes in internal Company operations. A delay or acceleration in handling claims may signal a need to increase or reduce reserves from what was initially estimated. New lines of business may have loss development patterns that are not well established. Changes in the geographic mix of business, changes in the mix of business by industry and changes in the mix of business by policy limit or deductible can increase the risk that losses will ultimately develop differently than the loss development patterns assumed in our reserving. In addition, changes in the quality of risk selection in underwriting and changes in interpretations of policy language could increase or decrease ultimate losses from what was assumed in establishing the reserves.
In the case of assumed reinsurance, all of the above risks apply. The Company assumes property and casualty risks from other insurance companies as part of its Global Re business and from certain pools and associations. Global Re, which is a part of the global specialty business, mostly assumes property, casualty and specialty risks. Changesin the case reserving and reporting
patterns of insurance companies ceding to The Hartford can create additional uncertainty in estimating the reserves. Due to the inherent complexity of the assumptions used, final claim settlements may vary significantly from the present estimates of direct and assumed reserves, particularly when those settlements may not occur until well into the future.
Reinsurance Recoverables-Through both facultative and treaty reinsurance agreements, the Company cedes a share of the risks it has underwritten to other insurance companies. The Company records reinsurance recoverables for losses and loss adjustment expenses ceded to its reinsurers representing the anticipated recovery from reinsurers of unpaid claims, including IBNR.
The Company estimates the portion of losses and loss adjustment expenses to be ceded based on the terms of any applicable facultative and treaty reinsurance, including an estimate of IBNR for losses that will ultimately be ceded.
The Company provides an allowance for uncollectible reinsurance, reflecting management’s best estimate of reinsurance cessions that may be uncollectible in the future due to reinsurers’ unwillingness or inability to pay. The allowance for uncollectible reinsurance comprises an ACL and an allowance for disputed balances. The ACL primarily considers the credit quality of the Company's reinsurers while the allowance for disputes considers recent outcomes in arbitration and litigation in disputes between reinsurers and cedants and recent commutation activity between reinsurers and cedants that may signal how the Company’s own reinsurance claims may settle. Where its reinsurance contracts permit, the Company secures reinsurance recoverables with various forms of collateral, including irrevocable letters of credit, secured trusts, funds held accounts and group-wide offsets. The allowance for uncollectible reinsurance was $100 as of December 31, 2023, comprised of $46 related to Commercial Lines, $1 related to Personal Lines and $53 related to Property & Casualty Other Operations.
The Company’s estimate of reinsurance recoverables, net of an allowance for uncollectible reinsurance, is subject to similar risks and uncertainties as the estimate of the gross reserve for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses for direct and assumed exposures.
Review of Reserve Adequacy-The Hartford regularly reviews the appropriateness of reserve levels at the line of business or more detailed level, taking into consideration the variety of trends that impact the ultimate settlement of claims. For Property & Casualty Other Operations, asbestos and environmental (“Run-off A&E”) reserves are reviewed by type of event rather than by line of business.
Reserve adjustments, which may be material, are reflected in the operating results of the period in which the adjustment is determined to be necessary. In the judgment of management, information currently available has been properly considered in establishing the reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses and in recording the reinsurance recoverables for ceded unpaid losses.
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Reserving Methodology
The following is a discussion of the reserving methods used for the Company's property and casualty lines of business other than asbestos and environmental.
Reserves are set by line of business within the operating segments. A single line of business may be written in more than one segment. Lines of business for which reported losses emerge over a long period of time are referred to as long-tail lines of business. Lines of business for which reported losses emerge more quickly are referred to as short-tail lines of business. The Company’s shortest-tail lines of business are homeowners, commercial property, marine property and automobile physical damage. The longest tail lines of business include workers’ compensation, general liability, professional liability and assumed reinsurance. For short-tail lines of business, emergence of paid losses and case reserves is credible and likely indicative of ultimate losses. For long-tail lines of business, emergence of paid losses and case reserves is less credible in the early periods after a given accident year and, accordingly, may not be indicative of ultimate losses.
Use of Actuarial Methods and Judgments-The Company’s reserving actuaries regularly review reserves for both current and prior accident years using the most current claim data. A variety of actuarial methods and judgments are used for most lines of business to arrive at selections of estimated ultimate losses and loss adjustment expenses. New methods may be added for specific lines over time to inform these selections where appropriate. The reserve selections incorporate input, as appropriate, from claims personnel, pricing actuaries and operating management about reported loss cost trends and other factors that could affect the reserve estimates. Some reserves are reviewed fully each quarter, including loss and loss adjustment expense reserves for commercial property, homeowners, personal automobile, and most workers’ compensation lines. Other reserves, including commercial automobile, marine, package business, and most general liability and professional liability lines, are reviewed semi-annually. Certain additional reserves are also reviewed semi-annually or annually, including reserves for losses incurred in accident years older than twelve years for Personal Lines and older than twenty years for Commercial Lines, as well as reserves for bond, assumed reinsurance, latent exposures such as construction defects, and ULAE. For reserves that are reviewed semi-annually or annually, management monitors the emergence of paid and reported losses in the intervening quarters and, if warranted, performs a reserve review to determine whether the reserve estimate should change.
An expected loss ratio "ELR" is used in initially recording the reserves for both short-tail and long-tail lines of business. This ELR is determined by starting with the average loss ratio of recent prior accident years and adjusting that ratio for the effect of expected changes to earned pricing, loss frequency and severity, mix of business, ceded reinsurance and other factors. For short-tail lines, IBNR for the current accident year is initially recorded as the product of the ELR for the period, earned premium for the period and the proportion of losses expected to be reported in future calendar periods for the current accident
period. For long-tailed lines, IBNR for the current accident year is initially recorded as the product of the ELR for the period and the earned premium for the period, less reported losses for the period.
As losses emerge or develop in periods subsequent to a given accident year, reserving actuaries use other methods to estimate ultimate unpaid losses in addition to the ELR method. These primarily include paid and reported loss development methods, frequency/severity techniques and the Bornhuetter-Ferguson method (a combination of the ELR method with the paid development or reported development method). Within any one line of business, the methods that are given more weight vary based primarily on the maturity of the accident year, the mix of business and the particular internal and external influences impacting the claims experience or the methods. The output of the reserve reviews are reserve estimates representing a range of actuarial indications.
Reserve Discounting-Most of the Company’s property and casualty insurance product reserves are not discounted. However, the Company has discounted liabilities funded through structured settlements and has discounted a portion of workers’ compensation reserves that have a fixed and determinable payment stream. For further discussion of these discounted liabilities, see Note 1 - Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
Differences Between GAAP and Statutory Basis Reserves-As of December 31, 2023 and 2022, U.S. property and casualty insurance product reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance recoverables, reported under U.S. GAAP were approximately $1.6 billion lower than net reserves reported on a statutory basis, primarily due to reinsurance recoverables on two adverse development cover reinsurance agreements that are recorded as a reduction of other liabilities under statutory accounting. For further discussion of these adverse development cover reinsurance agreements, see Note 1 - Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. Excluding the effect of these retroactive reinsurance agreements, U.S. property and casualty insurance product reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance recoverables, reported under U.S. GAAP were approximately equal to net reserves reported on a statutory basis.
Reserving Methods by Line of Business-Apart from Run-off A&E which is discussed in the following section on Property & Casualty Other Operations, below is a general discussion of which reserving methods are preferred by line of business. Because the actuarial estimates are generated at a much finer level of detail than line of business (e.g., by distribution channel, coverage, accident period), other methods than those described for the line of business may also be employed for a coverage and accident year within a line of business. Also, as circumstances change, the methods that are given more weight will change.
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Preferred Reserving Methods by Line of Business
| Commercial property, homeowners and automobile physical damage | These short-tailed lines are relatively fast-developing and paid and reported development techniques are used. These methods use historical data to generate paid and reported loss development patterns, which are then applied to cumulative paid and reported losses by accident period to estimate ultimate losses. In addition to paid and reported development methods, for the most immature accident months, the Company uses frequency/severity techniques and methods that incorporate the initial expected loss ratio ("ELR"). The advantage of frequency/severity techniques is that frequency estimates are generally more stable and external information can be used to supplement internal data in estimating average severity. In personal lines automobile physical damage, the Company also considers gross loss, salvage and subrogation estimates to project net ultimate losses for recent accident periods. |
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| Personal automobile liability | For personal automobile liability, and bodily injury in particular, in addition to traditional paid and reported development methods, the Company relies on frequency/severity techniques and the initial ELR. The Company generally uses the reported development method for older accident years and a combination of reported development, frequency/severity and the initial ELR for more recent accident years. For older accident periods, reported losses are a good indicator of ultimate losses given the high percentage of ultimate losses reported to date. For more recent periods, where there is more uncertainty and a higher percentage of open and unreported claims, putting some reliance on frequency/severity and initial expectations is prudent. The Company supplements these standard actuarial methods with a comprehensive review of claims diagnostics such as attorney representation, litigation, settlement rates, large loss impacts, and case reserve adequacy. Through reviewing the standard actuarial methods and claims diagnostics, a loss estimate can be calculated that considers these results and the age of the accident year that is being estimated. |
| Commercial automobile liability | The Company performs a variety of techniques, including the paid and reported development methods and frequency/severity techniques. For older, more mature accident years, the Company primarily uses reported development techniques. For more recent accident years, the Company relies on several methods that incorporate ELR, reported loss development, paid loss development, and frequency/severity. |
| Professional liability | Reported and paid loss development patterns for this line tend to be volatile. Therefore, the Company typically supplements the ELR method and paid and reported development methods with others such as individual claim reviews and frequency and severity techniques. |
| General liability, bond and large deductible workers’ compensation | For these long-tailed lines of business, the Company generally relies on the ELR and paid and reported development techniques. The Company generally weights these techniques together, relying more heavily on the ELR method at early ages of development and shifting more weight onto paid and reported development methods as an accident year matures. The Company also uses various frequency/severity methods aimed at capturing large loss development and in some bond lines individual claim reviews are used. |
| Workers’ compensation | Workers’ compensation is the Company’s single largest reserve line of business and a wide range of methods are used. Due to the long-tailed nature of workers' compensation, the selection of methods is driven by ELR methods for recent accident years and then, as an accident year matures, shifting first to Bornhuetter-Ferguson and frequency/severity methods, then to paid and reported development methods, and finally to methods that are responsive to the inventory of open claims. Across these techniques, there are adjustments related to changes in emergence patterns across years, projections of future cost inflation, and outlier claims. |
| Marine | For marine liability, the Company generally relies on the ELR, Bornhuetter-Ferguson, and reported development techniques. The Company generally weights these techniques together, relying more heavily on the ELR method at early ages of development and then shifts towards Bornhuetter-Ferguson and then more towards the reported development method as an accident year matures. For marine property segments, the Company relies on Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods for early development ages then shifts to reported development techniques. |
| Assumed reinsurance and all other | Standard methods, such as ELR, Bornhuetter-Ferguson and reported development techniques are applied. These methods are informed by underlying treaty analyses supporting the ELRs, and cedant data will often inform the loss development patterns. In some instances, reserve indications may also be influenced by information gained from claims and underwriting audits. Policy quarter and policy year loss reserve estimates are then converted to an accident year basis. |
| Allocated loss adjustment expenses ("ALAE") | For some lines of business (e.g., professional liability, assumed reinsurance, and the acquired Navigators Group book of business), ALAE and losses are analyzed together. For most lines of business, however, ALAE is analyzed separately, using paid development techniques and a ratio of paid ALAE to paid loss applied to loss reserves to estimate unpaid ALAE. |
| Unallocated loss adjustment expenses ("ULAE") | ULAE is analyzed separately from loss and ALAE. For most lines of business, future ULAE costs to be paid are projected based on a claim projection method that applies an expected claim handling cost per unit to projected claims, leveraging the anticipated claim closure pattern and the ratio of paid ULAE to paid loss applied to estimated unpaid losses. For some lines, a simplified paid-to-paid approach is used. |
The recorded reserve for losses and loss adjustment expenses represents the Company's best estimate of the ultimate settlement amount of unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses. In applying judgment, the best estimate is selected after considering the estimates derived from a number of actuarial methods, giving more weight to those methods deemed more predictive of ultimate unpaid losses and loss
adjustment expenses. The Company does not produce a statistical range or confidence interval of reserve estimates and, since reserving methods with more credibility are given greater weight, the selected best estimate may differ from the mid-point of the various estimates produced by the actuarial methods used.
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Assumptions used in arriving at the selected actuarial indications consider a number of factors, including the immaturity of emerged claims in recent accident years, emerging trends in the recent past, and the level of volatility within each line of business.
Adjustments to reserves for prior accident years are referred to as “prior accident year development”. Increases in previous estimates of ultimate loss costs are referred to as either an increase in prior accident year reserves or as unfavorable reserve development. Decreases in previous estimates of ultimate loss costs are referred to as either a decrease in prior accident year reserves or as favorable reserve development. Reserve development can influence the comparability of year over year underwriting results.
For a discussion of changes to reserve estimates recorded in 2023, see Note 11 - Reserve for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
Current Trends Contributing to Reserve Uncertainty
The Hartford is a multi-line company in the property and casualty insurance business. The Hartford is, therefore, subject to reserve uncertainty stemming from changes in loss trends and other conditions which could become material at any point in time. As market conditions and loss trends develop, management must assess whether those conditions constitute a long-term trend that should result in a reserving action (i.e., increasing or decreasing reserves).
General liability-Within Commercial Lines and Property & Casualty Other Operations, the Company has exposure to general liability claims, including from bodily injury, property damage and product liability. Reserves for these exposures can be particularly difficult to estimate due to the long development pattern and uncertainty about how cases will settle. In particular, the Company has exposure to bodily injury claims that arise from long-term or continuous exposure to harmful products or substances. Examples include, but are not limited to, pharmaceutical products, silica, talcum powder, per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances ("PFAS"), head injuries and lead paint. The Company also has exposure to claims from construction defects, where property damage or bodily injury from negligent construction is alleged. In addition, the Company has exposure to claims asserted against religious institutions, and other organizations relating to sexual molestation and sexual abuse. For information related to the Company's settlement agreement with the Boy Scouts of America ("BSA"), see Note 11 - Reserve for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. State “reviver” statutes, extending statutes of limitations for certain sexual molestation and sexual abuse claims, could result in additional litigation or could result in unexpected sexual molestation and sexual abuse losses. Such exposures may involve potentially long latency periods and may implicate coverage in multiple policy periods, which can raise complex coverage issues with significant effects on the ultimate scope of coverage. Such exposures may also be impacted by insured bankruptcies. These factors make reserves for such claims more uncertain than other bodily injury or property damage claims. With regard to these exposures, the Company monitors
trends in litigation, the external environment including legislation, the similarities to other mass torts and the potential impact on the Company’s reserves. The Company also monitors the effects of social inflation, and the impact of increased litigation funding and aggressive trial tactics by plaintiff attorneys, that can introduce the risk of potentially increasing jury awards and an increase in the percentage of litigated claims. Additionally, uncertainty in estimated claim severity causes reserve variability, including the effect of changes in internal claim handling and case reserving practices.
Workers’ compensation- Included in both small commercial and middle & large commercial, workers’ compensation is the Company’s single biggest line of business, and the property and casualty line of business with the longest pattern of loss emergence. To the extent that patterns in the frequency of settlement payments deviate from historical patterns, loss reserve estimates would be less reliable. Medical costs make up approximately 50% of workers’ compensation payments. As such, reserve estimates for workers’ compensation are particularly sensitive to changes in medical inflation, the changing use of medical care procedures and changes in state legislative and regulatory environments. In addition, changes in the economic environment could reduce the ability of an injured worker to return to work and thus lengthen the time a worker receives disability benefits. In National Accounts, reserves for large deductible workers’ compensation insurance require estimating losses attributable to the deductible amount that will be paid by the insured; if such losses are not paid by the insured due to financial difficulties, the Company is contractually liable.
Commercial Lines automobile-Uncertainty in estimated claim severity causes reserve variability for commercial automobile losses including reserve variability due to changes in internal claim handling and case reserving practices as well as due to changes in the external environment, including but not limited to the impacts of social inflation mentioned in the general liability section above and many of the same drivers detailed in the personal automobile section below.
Directors' and officers' insurance-Uncertainty regarding the number and severity of security class action suits can result in reserve volatility for directors' and officers' insurance claims. Additionally, the Company’s exposure to losses under directors’ and officers’ insurance policies, both domestically and internationally, is primarily in excess layers, making estimates of loss more complex.
Personal Lines automobile-While claims emerge over relatively shorter periods, estimates can still vary due to a number of factors, including uncertain estimates of frequency and severity trends. Severity trends are affected by changes in internal claim handling and case reserving practices as well as by changes in the external environment, such as due to inflation in labor and materials because of supply chain disruptions affecting repair costs. Severity trends can also be impacted by social inflation whereby increased litigation funding and aggressive trial tactics by plaintiff attorneys can introduce the risk of potentially increasing jury awards and an increase in the percentage of litigated claims. Changes in claim practices increase the uncertainty in the interpretation of case reserve data, which increases the uncertainty in recorded reserve levels. Severity trends have increased in recent accident years, in part
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driven by more expensive parts associated with new automobile technology and increased attorney representation, causing additional uncertainty about the reliability of past patterns. In addition, the introduction of new products and class plans can lead to a different mix of business by type of insured than the Company experienced in the past. Changes in mix increase the uncertainty of the reserve projections since historical data and reporting patterns may not be applicable to the new business.
Assumed reinsurance-While pricing and reserving processes can be challenging and idiosyncratic for insurance companies, the inherent uncertainties of setting prices and estimating such reserves are even greater for the reinsurer. This is primarily due to the longer time between the date of an occurrence and the reporting of claims to the reinsurer, the diversity of development patterns among different types of reinsurance treaties or contracts, the necessary reliance on the ceding companies for information regarding reported claims and differing pricing and reserving practices among ceding companies. In addition, trends that have affected development of liabilities in the past may not necessarily occur or impact liability development in the same manner or to the same degree in the future. As a result, actual losses and LAE may deviate, perhaps substantially, from the expected estimates.
International business- In addition to several of the line-specific trends listed above, international business may have additional uncertainty due to geopolitical, foreign currency, and trade dispute risks.
Catastrophes- Within Commercial Lines and Personal Lines, the Company is exposed to losses from catastrophe events, primarily for damage to property. Reserves for hurricanes, tropical storms, tornado/hail, wildfires, earthquakes and other catastrophe events are subject to significant uncertainty about the number and average severity of claims arising from those events, particularly in cases where the event occurs near the end of a financial reporting period when there is limited information about the extent of damages. For example, after a catastrophe event, it may take a period of time before we are able to access the impacted areas limiting the ability of our claims adjusting staff to inspect losses, make estimates and determine the damages that are covered by the policy. To estimate catastrophe losses, we consider information from claim notices received to date, third party data, visual images of the affected area where we have exposures and our own historical experience of loss reporting patterns for similar events.
Impact of Key Assumptions on Reserves
As stated above, the Company’s practice is to estimate reserves using a variety of methods, assumptions and data elements within its reserve estimation. The Company does not use statistical loss distributions or confidence levels in the process of determining its reserve estimate and, as a result, does not disclose reserve ranges.
Across most lines of business, the most important reserve assumptions are future loss development factors applied to paid or reported losses to date. The trend in loss cost frequency and severity is also a key assumption, particularly in the most recent accident years, where loss development factors are less credible.
The following discussion discloses possible variation from current estimates of loss reserves due to a change in certain key indicators of potential losses. For automobile liability lines in both Personal Lines and Commercial Lines, the key indicator is the annual loss cost trend, particularly the severity trend component of loss costs. For workers’ compensation and general liability, loss development patterns are a key indicator, particularly for more mature accident years. For workers’ compensation, paid loss development patterns have been impacted by medical cost inflation and other changes in loss cost trends. For general liability, incurred loss development patterns have been impacted by, among other things, emergence of new types of claims (e.g., PFAS claims) and a shift in the mixture between smaller, more routine claims and larger, more complex claims.
Each of the impacts described below is estimated individually, without consideration for any correlation among key indicators or among lines of business. Therefore, it would be inappropriate to take each of the amounts described below and add them together in an attempt to estimate volatility for the Company’s reserves in total. For any one reserving line of business, the estimated variation in reserves due to changes in key indicators is a reasonable estimate of potential reserve development that may occur in the future, likely over a period of several calendar years. The variation discussed is not meant to be a worst-case scenario, and, therefore, it is possible that future variation may be more than the amounts discussed below. Moreover, the variation discussed does not represent a statistical range of potential reserve outcomes, and factors exist beyond the key indicators considered which have the potential to drive additional variation to the Company's reserves.
| Possible Change in Key Indicator | Reserves, Net of Reinsurance December 31, 2023 | Estimated Range of Potential Reserve Development | |
| Personal AutomobileLiability | +/-2.5 points to the annual assumed change in loss cost severity for the two most recent accident years | $1.6 billion | +/- $80M |
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| Commercial Automobile Liability | +/- 2.5 points to the annual assumed change in loss cost severity for the two most recent accident years | $1.4 billion | +/- $40M |
| Workers' Compensation | 2% change in paid loss development patterns | $12.2 billion | +/- $400M |
| General Liability | 8% change in reported loss development patterns | $5.2 billion | +/- $600M |
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Reserving for Asbestos and Environmental Claims
How A&E Reserves are Set- The process for establishing reserves for asbestos and environmental claims first involves estimating the required reserves gross of ceded reinsurance and then estimating reinsurance recoverables.
In establishing reserves for gross asbestos claims, the Company evaluates its insureds’ estimated liabilities for such claims by examining exposures for individual insureds and assessing how coverage applies. The Company considers a variety of factors, including the jurisdictions where underlying claims have been brought, past, pending and anticipated future claim activity, the level of plaintiff demands, disease mix, past settlement values of similar claims, dismissal rates, allocated loss adjustment expense, and potential impact of other defendants being in bankruptcy.
Similarly, the Company reviews exposures to establish gross environmental reserves. The Company considers several factors in estimating environmental liabilities, including historical values of similar claims, the number of sites involved, the insureds’ alleged activities at each site, the alleged environmental damage, the respective shares of liability of potentially responsible parties, the appropriateness and cost of remediation, the nature of governmental enforcement activities or mandated remediation efforts and potential impact of other defendants being in bankruptcy.
After evaluating its insureds’ probable liabilities for asbestos and/or environmental claims, the Company evaluates the insurance coverage in place for such claims. The Company considers its insureds’ total available insurance coverage, including the coverage issued by the Company. The Company also considers relevant judicial interpretations of policy language, the nature of how policy limits are enforced on multi-year policies and applicable coverage defenses or determinations, if any.
The estimated liabilities of insureds and the Company’s exposure to the insureds depends heavily on an analysis of the relevant legal issues and litigation environment. This analysis is conducted by the Company’s lawyers and is subject to applicable privileges.
For both asbestos and environmental reserves, the Company also analyzes its historical paid and reported losses and expenses year by year, to assess any emerging trends, fluctuations or characteristics suggested by the aggregate paid and reported activity. The historical losses and expenses are analyzed on both a direct basis and net of reinsurance.
Once the gross ultimate exposure for indemnity and allocated loss adjustment expense is determined for its insureds by each policy year, the Company calculates its ceded reinsurance
recoverables based on any applicable facultative and treaty reinsurance and the Company’s experience with reinsurance collections. See the section that follows entitled A&E Adverse Development Cover that discusses the impact the reinsurance agreement with NICO may have on future adverse development of asbestos and environmental reserves, if any.
Uncertainties Regarding Adequacy of A&E Reserves-A number of factors affect the variability of estimates for gross asbestos and environmental reserves including assumptions with respect to the frequency of claims, the average severity of those claims settled with payment, the dismissal rate of claims with no payment, resolution of coverage disputes with our policyholders and the expense to indemnity ratio. Reserve estimates for gross asbestos and environmental reserves are subject to greater variability than reserve estimates for more traditional exposures.
The process of estimating asbestos and environmental reserves remains subject to a wide variety of uncertainties, which are detailed in Note 15 - Commitments and Contingencies of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. The Company believes that its current asbestos and environmental reserves are appropriate. Future developments could continue to cause the Company to change its estimates of its gross asbestos and environmental reserves. Losses ceded under the adverse development cover ("A&E ADC") with NICO in excess of the ceded premium paid of $650 have resulted in a deferred gain resulting in a timing difference between when gross reserves are increased and when reinsurance recoveries are recognized. This timing difference results in a charge to net income until such periods when the recoveries are recognized. Consistent with past practice, the Company will continue to monitor its reserves in Property & Casualty Other Operations regularly, including its annual reviews of asbestos liabilities, reinsurance recoverables, the allowance for uncollectible reinsurance, and environmental liabilities. Where future developments indicate, we will make appropriate adjustments to the reserves at that time.
Total P&C Insurance Product Reserves Development
In the opinion of management, based upon the known facts and current law, the reserves recorded for the Company’s property and casualty insurance products at December 31, 2023 represent the Company’s best estimate of its ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses. However, because of the significant uncertainties surrounding reserves, it is possible that management’s estimate of the ultimate liabilities for these claims may change in the future and that the required adjustment to currently recorded reserves could be material to the Company’s results of operations or liquidity.
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Rollforward of Property and Casualty Insurance Product Liabilities for Unpaid Losses and LAE for the Year Ended December 31, 2023
| Commercial Lines | Personal Lines | Property & Casualty Other Operations | Total Property & Casualty Insurance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, gross | $28,453 | $1,857 | $2,773 | $33,083 |
| Reinsurance and other recoverables | 4,574 | 28 | 1,863 | 6,465 |
| Beginning liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net | 23,879 | 1,829 | 910 | 26,618 |
| Provision for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | ||||
| Current accident year before catastrophes | 6,575 | 2,287 | — | 8,862 |
| Current accident year ("CAY") catastrophes | 436 | 240 | — | 676 |
| Prior accident year development ("PYD") | (225) | 11 | 224 | 10 |
| Total provision for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | 6,786 | 2,538 | 224 | 9,548 |
| Change in deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance included in the provision for the period but reflected in other liabilities | — | — | (194) | (194) |
| Payments [1] | (6,101) | (2,327) | (214) | (8,642) |
| Foreign currency adjustment | 18 | — | — | 18 |
| Ending liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net | 24,582 | 2,040 | 726 | 27,348 |
| Reinsurance and other recoverables | 4,599 | 28 | 2,069 | 6,696 |
| Ending liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, gross | $29,181 | $2,068 | $2,795 | $34,044 |
| Earned premiums and fee income | $11,682 | $3,117 | ||
| Loss and loss expense paid ratio [2] | 52.2 | 74.7 | ||
| Loss and loss expense incurred ratio | 58.3 | 82.2 | ||
| Prior accident year development (pts) [3] | (1.9) | 0.4 | ||
[1]Includes the $787 settlement paid to the BSA on April 20, 2023. For further information, see "Settlement Agreement with Boy Scouts of America" in Note 11 - Reserve for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
[2]The “loss and loss expense paid ratio” represents the ratio of paid losses and loss adjustment expenses to earned premiums and fee income.
[3]“Prior accident year development (pts)” represents the ratio of prior accident year development to earned premiums.
| Current Accident Year Catastrophe Losses for the Year Ended December 31, 2023, Net of Reinsurance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Lines | Personal Lines | Total | |
| Wind and hail | $278 | $214 | $492 |
| Winter storms | 68 | 15 | 83 |
| Hurricanes and tropical storms | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| Wildfires | 3 | 8 | 11 |
| Other international | 6 | — | 6 |
| Catastrophes before assumed reinsurance | 365 | 240 | 605 |
| Global assumed reinsurance business [1] | 71 | — | 71 |
| Total catastrophe losses | $436 | $240 | $676 |
[1]Catastrophe losses incurred on global assumed reinsurance business are not covered under the Company's aggregate property catastrophe treaty. For further information on the treaty, refer to Enterprise Risk Management — Insurance Risk section of this MD&A.
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| Unfavorable (Favorable) Prior Accident Year Development for the Year Ended December 31, 2023 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Lines | Personal Lines | Property & Casualty Other Operations | Total Property & Casualty Insurance | |
| Workers’ compensation | $(236) | $— | $— | $(236) |
| Workers’ compensation discount accretion | 42 | — | — | 42 |
| General liability | 41 | — | — | 41 |
| Marine | (2) | — | — | (2) |
| Package business | (24) | — | — | (24) |
| Commercial property | (7) | — | — | (7) |
| Professional liability | (2) | — | — | (2) |
| Bond | (27) | — | — | (27) |
| Assumed reinsurance | 34 | — | — | 34 |
| Automobile liability | 20 | — | — | 20 |
| Homeowners | — | (6) | — | (6) |
| Net asbestos and environmental reserves [1] | — | — | — | — |
| Catastrophes | (83) | (4) | — | (87) |
| Uncollectible reinsurance | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| Other reserve re-estimates, net [2] | 12 | 20 | 25 | 57 |
| Prior accident year development before change in deferred gain | (225) | 11 | 30 | (184) |
| Change in deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance included in other liabilities [1] | — | — | 194 | 194 |
| Total prior accident year development | $(225) | $11 | $224 | $10 |
[1]The year ended December 31, 2023 included $194 of adverse development on net asbestos and environmental reserves that was ceded to NICO but for which the Company recorded a deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance.
[2]Other reserve re-estimates for the year ended December 31, 2023 includes a$22 increase in personal automobile physical damage reserves.
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Rollforward of Property and Casualty Insurance Product Liabilities for Unpaid Losses and LAE for the Year Ended December 31, 2022
| Commercial Lines | Personal Lines | Property & Casualty Other Operations | Total Property & Casualty Insurance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, gross | $26,906 | $1,844 | $2,699 | $31,449 |
| Reinsurance and other recoverables | 4,480 | 37 | 1,564 | 6,081 |
| Beginning liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net | 22,426 | 1,807 | 1,135 | 25,368 |
| Provision for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | ||||
| Current accident year before catastrophes | 5,959 | 1,969 | — | 7,928 |
| Current accident year catastrophes | 441 | 208 | — | 649 |
| Prior accident year development | (231) | (13) | 280 | 36 |
| Total provision for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | 6,169 | 2,164 | 280 | 8,613 |
| Change in deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance included inother liabilities | — | — | (229) | (229) |
| Payments | (4,684) | (2,142) | (276) | (7,102) |
| Foreign currency adjustment | (32) | — | — | (32) |
| Ending liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net | 23,879 | 1,829 | 910 | 26,618 |
| Reinsurance and other recoverables | 4,574 | 28 | 1,863 | 6,465 |
| Ending liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, gross | $28,453 | $1,857 | $2,773 | $33,083 |
| Earned premiums and fee income | $10,610 | $2,979 | ||
| Loss and loss expense paid ratio [1] | 44.1 | 71.9 | ||
| Loss and loss expense incurred ratio | 58.4 | 73.4 | ||
| Prior accident year development (pts) [2] | (2.2) | (0.4) | ||
[1]The “loss and loss expense paid ratio” represents the ratio of paid losses and loss adjustment expenses to earned premiums and fee income.
[2]“Prior accident year development (pts)” represents the ratio of prior accident year development to earned premiums.
| Current Accident Year Catastrophe Losses for the Year Ended December 31, 2022, Net of Reinsurance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Lines | Personal Lines | Total | |
| Wind and hail | $107 | $104 | $211 |
| Winter storms [1] | 163 | 21 | 184 |
| Hurricanes and Tropical Storms [2] | 74 | 80 | 154 |
| Wildfires | — | 3 | 3 |
| Ukraine conflict [3] | 23 | — | 23 |
| Other international | 1 | — | 1 |
| Catastrophes before assumed reinsurance | 368 | 208 | 576 |
| Global assumed reinsurance business [1] [2] [3] | 73 | — | 73 |
| Total catastrophe losses | $441 | $208 | $649 |
[1]Includes losses from Winter Storm Elliott of $167, including $3 in the global assumed reinsurance business. Gross losses from Winter Storm Elliott of $202 were partially offset by a $35 reinsurance recoverable since, under a per occurrence property catastrophe treaty layer covering losses from earthquakes and named storms other than hurricanes and tropical storms, the Company is able to cede 70% of up to $250 in excess of a $100 attachment point subject to a $50 annual aggregate deductible.
[2]Includes losses from Hurricane Ian of $186, net of reinsurance, including $35 of hurricane losses in the global assumed reinsurance business.
[3]Total catastrophe losses resulting from the Ukraine conflict were $27, net of reinsurance, including $4 within global assumed reinsurance, all in the first quarter, which included exposures under political violence and terrorism policies, including aviation war, as well as credit and political risk insurance policies.
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| Unfavorable (Favorable) Prior Accident Year Development for the Year Ended December 31, 2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Lines | Personal Lines | Property & Casualty Other Operations | Total Property & Casualty Insurance | |
| Workers’ compensation | $(204) | $— | $— | $(204) |
| Workers’ compensation discount accretion | 36 | — | — | 36 |
| General liability | 25 | — | 31 | 56 |
| Marine | 2 | — | — | 2 |
| Package business | (39) | — | — | (39) |
| Commercial property | (11) | — | — | (11) |
| Professional liability | (11) | — | — | (11) |
| Bond | (32) | — | — | (32) |
| Assumed reinsurance | 19 | — | — | 19 |
| Automobile liability | 38 | (14) | — | 24 |
| Homeowners | — | (1) | — | (1) |
| Net asbestos and environmental reserves [1] | — | — | — | — |
| Catastrophes | (60) | (2) | — | (62) |
| Uncollectible reinsurance | (1) | (2) | 6 | 3 |
| Other reserve re-estimates, net | 7 | 6 | 14 | 27 |
| Prior accident year development before change in deferred gain | (231) | (13) | 51 | (193) |
| Change in deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance included in other liabilities [1] | — | — | 229 | 229 |
| Total prior accident year development | $(231) | $(13) | $280 | $36 |
[1]The year ended December 31, 2022 included $229 of adverse development on net asbestos and environmental reserves that was ceded to NICO but for which the Company recorded a deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance.
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Rollforward of Property and Casualty Insurance Product Liabilities for Unpaid Losses and LAE for the Year Ended December 31, 2021
| Commercial Lines | Personal Lines | Property & Casualty Other Operations | Total Property & Casualty Insurance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, gross | $25,058 | $1,836 | $2,728 | $29,622 |
| Reinsurance and other recoverables | 4,271 | 28 | 1,426 | 5,725 |
| Beginning liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net | 20,787 | 1,808 | 1,302 | 23,897 |
| Provision for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | ||||
| Current accident year before catastrophes | 5,407 | 1,840 | — | 7,247 |
| Current accident year catastrophes | 496 | 168 | — | 664 |
| Prior accident year development [1] | 141 | (144) | 202 | 199 |
| Total provision for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses | 6,044 | 1,864 | 202 | 8,110 |
| Change in deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance included inother liabilities [1] | (91) | — | (155) | (246) |
| Payments | (4,316) | (1,865) | (214) | (6,395) |
| Foreign currency adjustment | 2 | — | — | 2 |
| Ending liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net | 22,426 | 1,807 | 1,135 | 25,368 |
| Reinsurance and other recoverables | 4,480 | 37 | 1,564 | 6,081 |
| Ending liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, gross | $26,906 | $1,844 | $2,699 | $31,449 |
| Earned premiums and fee income | $9,575 | $2,986 | ||
| Loss and loss expense paid ratio [2] | 45.1 | 62.5 | ||
| Loss and loss expense incurred ratio | 63.4 | 63.1 | ||
| Prior accident year development (pts) [3] | 1.5 | (4.9) | ||
[1]Prior accident year development does not include the benefit of a portion of losses ceded under the Navigators and A&E ADCs which, under retroactive reinsurance accounting, is deferred and is recognized over the period the ceded losses are recovered in cash from NICO. For additional information regarding the two adverse development cover reinsurance agreements, refer to Note 11 - Reserve for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
[2]The “loss and loss expense paid ratio” represents the ratio of paid losses and loss adjustment expenses to earned premiums and fee income.
[3]“Prior accident year development (pts)” represents the ratio of prior accident year development to earned premiums.
| Current Accident Year Catastrophe Losses for the Year Ended December 31, 2021, Net of Reinsurance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Lines | Personal Lines | Total | |
| Wind and hail | $157 | $94 | $251 |
| Winter storms [1] | 151 | 18 | 169 |
| Hurricanes and Tropical Storms | 151 | 43 | 194 |
| Wildfires | 9 | 23 | 32 |
| Losses ceded to the aggregate catastrophe treaty [2] | (29) | (10) | (39) |
| Catastrophes before assumed reinsurance | 439 | 168 | 607 |
| Global assumed reinsurance business [3] | 57 | — | 57 |
| Total catastrophe losses | $496 | $168 | $664 |
[1]Includes catastrophe losses from the February winter storms in Texas and other areas within Commercial Lines and Personal Lines of $206 and $24, respectively, gross of reinsurance, and $151 and $18, respectively, net of reinsurance under the Company's per occurrence property catastrophe treaty covering events other than earthquakes and named hurricanes and tropical storms. The reinsurance covers 70% of up to $250 of losses in excess of $100 from such events occurring within a seven day time period, subject to a $50 annual aggregate deductible. These recoveries do not inure to the benefit of the aggregate property catastrophe treaty reinsurers. For further information on the treaty, refer to Enterprise Risk Management — Insurance Risk section of this MD&A.
[2]For further information on the aggregate catastrophe treaty, refer to Enterprise Risk Management — Insurance Risk section of this MD&A.
[3]Catastrophe losses incurred on global assumed reinsurance business are not covered under the Company's aggregate property catastrophe treaty. For further information on the treaty, refer to Enterprise Risk Management — Insurance Risk section of this MD&A.
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| Unfavorable (Favorable) Prior Accident Year Development for the Year Ended December 31, 2021 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Lines | Personal Lines | Property & Casualty Other Operations | Total Property & Casualty Insurance | |
| Workers’ compensation | $(190) | $— | $— | $(190) |
| Workers’ compensation discount accretion | 35 | — | — | 35 |
| General liability | 454 | — | — | 454 |
| Marine | 1 | — | — | 1 |
| Package business | (91) | — | — | (91) |
| Commercial property | (26) | — | — | (26) |
| Professional liability | (2) | — | — | (2) |
| Bond | (26) | — | — | (26) |
| Assumed reinsurance | (6) | — | — | (6) |
| Automobile liability | 9 | (90) | — | (81) |
| Homeowners | — | 3 | — | 3 |
| Net asbestos and environmental reserves | — | — | — | — |
| Catastrophes | (97) | (57) | — | (154) |
| Uncollectible reinsurance | (5) | — | (1) | (6) |
| Other reserve re-estimates, net | (6) | — | 48 | 42 |
| Total prior accident year development | 50 | (144) | 47 | (47) |
| Change in deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance included in other liabilities | 91 | — | 155 | 246 |
| Total prior accident year development | $141 | $(144) | $202 | $199 |
For discussion of the factors contributing to unfavorable (favorable) for the prior accident year reserve development 2023, 2022, and 2021 periods, refer to Note 11 - Reserve for Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
|PROPERTY & CASUALTY OTHER OPERATIONS
Net reserves and reserve activity in Property & Casualty Other Operations are categorized and reported as asbestos, environmental, and “all other”. The “all other” category of reserves covers a wide range of insurance and assumed reinsurance coverages, including, but not limited to, potential liability for construction defects, lead paint, silica, pharmaceutical products, head injuries, sexual molestation and sexual abuse and other long-tail liabilities. In addition to various insurance and assumed reinsurance exposures, "all other" includes unallocated loss adjustment expense reserves. "All other" also includes the Company’s allowance for uncollectible reinsurance. When the Company commutes a ceded reinsurance contract or settles a ceded reinsurance dispute, net reserves for the related cause of loss (including asbestos, environmental or all other) are increased for the portion of the
allowance for uncollectible reinsurance attributable to that commutation or settlement.
Asbestos and Environmental Reserves
The vast majority of the Company's exposure to A&E relates to policy coverages provided prior to 1986 and is reported within the P&C Other Operations segment (“Run-off A&E”). In addition, since 1986 the Company has written asbestos and environmental exposures under general liability policies and pollution liability under homeowners policies, which are reported in the Commercial Lines and Personal Lines segments, respectively.
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Run-off A&E Summary as of December 31, 2023
| Asbestos · Environmental · Total Run-off A&E | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross | ||||||
| Direct | $1,364 | $400 | $1,764 | |||
| Assumed Reinsurance | 448 | 62 | 510 | |||
| Total | 1,812 | 462 | 2,274 | |||
| Ceded- other than NICO | (475) | (75) | (550) | |||
| Total net reserves, before ceded losses to NICO | $1,337 | $387 | 1,724 | |||
| Ceded - NICO A&E ADC "Run-off" [1] | (1,476) | |||||
| Net | $248 | |||||
[1]Including $1,476 of ceded losses for Run-off A&E and a $38 reduction in ceded losses for Commercial Lines and Personal Lines, cumulative net incurred losses of $1,438 have been ceded to NICO under an adverse development cover reinsurance agreement. See the section that follows entitled A&E Adverse Development Cover for additional information.
Rollforward of Run-off A&E Losses and LAE
| Asbestos | Environmental | Total Run-off A&E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning net reserves before reinsurance recoverable from NICO | $1,298 | $374 | $1,672 |
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred before ceding to NICO A&E ADC | 156 | 38 | 194 |
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses paid | (120) | (25) | (145) |
| Reclassification of allowance for uncollectible reinsurance [1] | 3 | — | 3 |
| Ending net reserves before reinsurance recoverable from NICO | $1,337 | $387 | 1,724 |
| Reinsurance recoverable from NICO A&E ADC | (1,476) | ||
| Ending net reserves | $248 | ||
| Beginning net reserves before reinsurance recoverable from NICO | $1,263 | $394 | $1,657 |
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred before ceding to NICO A&E ADC | 161 | 68 | 229 |
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses paid | (128) | (89) | (217) |
| Reclassification of allowance for uncollectible reinsurance [1] | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Ending net reserves before reinsurance recoverable from NICO | $1,298 | $374 | 1,672 |
| Reinsurance recoverable from NICO A&E ADC | (1,282) | ||
| Ending net reserves | $390 | ||
| Beginning net reserves before reinsurance recoverable from NICO | $1,268 | $419 | $1,687 |
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses incurred before ceding to NICO A&E ADC | 104 | 51 | 155 |
| Losses and loss adjustment expenses paid | (112) | (76) | (188) |
| Reclassification of allowance for uncollectible reinsurance [1] | 3 | — | 3 |
| Ending net reserves before reinsurance recoverable from NICO | $1,263 | $394 | 1,657 |
| Reinsurance recoverable from NICO A&E ADC | (1,053) | ||
| Ending liability — net | $604 |
[1]Related to the reclassification of an allowance for uncollectible reinsurance from the "all other" category of P&C Other Operations reserves.
A&E Adverse Development Cover
Effective December 31, 2016, the Company entered into an A&E ADC reinsurance agreement with NICO to reduce uncertainty about potential adverse development. Under the A&E ADC, the Company paid a reinsurance premium of $650 for NICO to assume adverse net loss and allocated loss adjustment expense reserve development up to $1.5 billion above the Company’s existing net A&E reserves as of December 31, 2016 of approximately $1.7 billion, including both Run-off A&E and A&E reserves in Commercial Lines and Personal Lines. The $650 reinsurance premium was placed in a
collateral trust account as security for NICO’s claim payment obligations to the Company. The Company has retained the risk of collection on amounts due from other third-party reinsurers and continues to be responsible for claims handling and other administrative services, subject to certain conditions. The A&E ADC covers substantially all the Company’s A&E reserve development up to the reinsurance limit.
Under retroactive reinsurance accounting, net adverse A&E reserve development after December 31, 2016 results in an offsetting reinsurance recoverable up to the $1.5 billion limit. Cumulative ceded losses up to the $650 reinsurance
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premium paid have been recognized as a dollar-for-dollar offset to direct losses incurred. Cumulative ceded losses exceeding the $650 reinsurance premium paid have resulted in a deferred gain. As of December 31, 2023, the Company has incurred a cumulative $1,438 in adverse development on A&E reserves that have been ceded under the A&E ADC treaty with NICO, including $1,476 for Run-off A&E reserves, partially offset by a $38 reduction for A&E reserves in Commercial Lines and Personal Lines. As such, $62 of coverage is available for future adverse net reserve development, if any. As a result, the Company has recorded a $788 deferred gain within other liabilities, representing the difference between the reinsurance recoverable of $1,438 and ceded premium paid of $650. The deferred gain is recognized over the claim settlement period in the proportion of the amount of cumulative ceded losses collected from the reinsurer to the estimated ultimate reinsurance recoveries. Consequently, until periods when the deferred gain is recognized as a benefit to earnings, cumulative adverse development of asbestos and environmental claims will result in charges against earnings, which may be significant.
Net and Gross Survival Ratios
Net and gross survival ratios are a measure of the quotient of the carried reserves divided by average annual payments (net of reinsurance and on a gross basis) and is an indication of the number of years that carried reserves would last (i.e., survive) if future annual payments were consistent with the calculated historical average.
Since December 31, 2016, asbestos and environmental net reserves have been declining since all adverse development has been ceded to NICO, up to a limit of $1.5 billion, and the deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance has been recorded within other liabilities rather than in net loss and loss adjustment expense reserves. Recoveries from NICO will not be collected until the Company has cumulative loss payments of more than the attachment point of $1.7 billion which was based on the carrying value of net reserves as of December 31, 2016. Accordingly, the payment of losses without any current collection of recoveries from NICO has reduced the Company’s net loss reserves which decreases the net survival ratios such that, unadjusted, the net survival ratios would not be representative of the true number of years of average loss payments covered by the reserves. Therefore, the net survival ratios presented in the table below are calculated before considering the effect of the A&E ADC reinsurance agreement but net of other reinsurance in place.
Net and Gross Survival Ratios
| Asbestos | Environmental | |
|---|---|---|
| One year net survival ratio | 11.1 | 15.5 |
| Three year net survival ratio | 11.1 | 6.1 |
| One year gross survival ratio | 10.6 | 19.3 |
| Three year gross survival ratio | 11.1 | 5.8 |
Run-off A&E Paid and Incurred Losses and LAE Development
| Asbestos | Environmental | Total A&E | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paid Losses & LAE | Incurred Losses & LAE | Paid Losses & LAE | Incurred Losses & LAE | Paid Losses & LAE | Incurred Losses & LAE | |
| Gross | $171 | $206 | $24 | $49 | $195 | $255 |
| Ceded- other than NICO | (51) | (50) | 1 | (11) | (50) | (61) |
| Net - Gross of ADC | $120 | $156 | $25 | $38 | 145 | 194 |
| Ceded - NICO A&E ADC | — | (194) | ||||
| Net | $145 | $— | ||||
| Gross | $160 | $227 | $106 | $80 | $266 | $307 |
| Ceded- other than NICO | (32) | (66) | (17) | (12) | (49) | (78) |
| Net - Gross of ADC | $128 | $161 | $89 | $68 | 217 | 229 |
| Ceded - NICO A&E ADC | — | (229) | ||||
| Net | $217 | $— | ||||
| Gross | $157 | $148 | $109 | $55 | $266 | $203 |
| Ceded- other than NICO | (45) | (44) | (33) | (4) | (78) | (48) |
| Net - Gross of ADC | $112 | $104 | $76 | $51 | 188 | 155 |
| Ceded - NICO A&E ADC | — | (155) | ||||
| Net | $188 | $— | ||||
Annual Reserve Reviews
Review of Asbestos and Environmental Reserves
The Company performs its regular comprehensive annual review of asbestos and environmental reserves in the fourth quarter, including both Run-off A&E (P&C Other Operations) and
asbestos and environmental reserves included in Commercial Lines and Personal Lines. As part of the evaluation of asbestos and environmental reserves in the fourth quarter of 2023, the Company reviewed all of its open direct domestic insurance accounts exposed to asbestos and environmental liability, as well as assumed reinsurance accounts.
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2023 comprehensive annual reviews
As a result of the 2023 fourth quarter review, the Company increased asbestos reserves before NICO reinsurance by $156 in P&C Other Operations, primarily driven by an increase in the Company’s share of liability due to insolvencies and cost sharing agreements, an increase in claim settlement rates, as well as higher defense costs. The increase in asbestos reserves was offset by a $156 reinsurance recoverable under the NICO treaty.
As a result of the 2023 fourth quarter review, the Company increased environmental reserves before NICO reinsurance by $38 in P&C Other Operations, primarily due to higher severity on recently emerged accounts, higher environmental site cleanup and monitoring costs, including increased estimates of liability for PFAS exposures, and higher legal expenses. The increase in environmental reserves was offset by a $38 reinsurance recoverable under the NICO treaty.
The total $194 increase in asbestos and environmental reserves in P&C Other Operations was offset by a $194 reinsurance recoverable under the NICO treaty. Since cumulative losses ceded to the A&E ADC exceed the $650 of ceded premium paid, the Company recognized a $194 increase in deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance, resulting in the Company recording a charge to earnings of $194 in 2023.
2022 comprehensive annual reviews
As a result of the 2022 fourth quarter review, the Company increased estimated asbestos reserves before NICO reinsurance by $162, including $161 in P&C Other Operations, primarily driven by an increase in the Company’s share of liability due to insolvencies and cost sharing agreements, an increase in claim settlement rates, and higher claim settlement values and defense costs. The increase in asbestos reserves was offset by a $162 reinsurance recoverable under the NICO treaty.
As a result of the 2022 fourth quarter review, the Company increased estimated environmental reserves before NICO reinsurance by $67, including $68 in P&C Other Operations, primarily due to increased estimates of liability for PFAS exposure, the resolution of one large mining account, higher environmental site cleanup and monitoring costs, and higher legal expenses. The increase in environmental reserves was offset by a $67 reinsurance recoverable under the NICO treaty.
The total $229 increase in asbestos and environmental reserves in P&C Other Operations was offset by a $229 reinsurance recoverable under the NICO treaty. Since cumulative losses ceded to the A&E ADC exceed the $650 of ceded premium paid, the Company recognized a $229 increase in deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance, resulting in the Company recording a charge to earnings of $229 in 2022.
For information regarding the 2021 comprehensive annual review, refer to Part 2, Item 7, Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations in The Hartford’s 2022 Form 10-K Annual Report.
Review of "All Other" Reserves in Property & Casualty Other Operations
Prior year development on all other reserves resulted in increases of $30, $51 and $47, respectively for calendar years 2023, 2022 and 2021. Included in the 2023 adverse reserve development was an increase in ULAE reserves, primarily due to an increase in expected aggregate claim handling costs associated with asbestos and environmental claims.
The Company provides an allowance for uncollectible reinsurance, reflecting management’s best estimate of reinsurance cessions that may be uncollectible in the future due to reinsurers’ unwillingness or inability to pay. In performing its assessment, the Company evaluates the collectibility of the reinsurance recoverables and the adequacy of the allowance for uncollectible reinsurance associated with older, long-term casualty liabilities reported in Property & Casualty Other Operations. In conducting these evaluations, the Company used its most recent detailed evaluations of ceded liabilities reported in the segment. The Company analyzed the overall credit quality of the Company’s reinsurers, recent trends in arbitration and litigation outcomes in disputes between cedants and reinsurers, and recent developments in commutation activity between reinsurers and cedants. As of 2023, 2022, and 2021 the allowance for uncollectible reinsurance for Property & Casualty Other Operations totaled $53, $56 and $53, respectively. Due to the inherent uncertainties as to collection and the length of time before reinsurance recoverables become due, particularly for older, long-term casualty liabilities, it is possible that future adjustments to the Company’s reinsurance recoverables, net of the allowance, could be required.
|IMPACT OF RE-ESTIMATES ON PROPERTY & CASUALTY INSURANCE PRODUCT RESERVES
Estimating property and casualty insurance product reserves uses a variety of methods, assumptions and data elements. Ultimate losses may vary materially from the current estimates. Many factors can contribute to these variations and the need to change the previous estimate of required reserve levels. Prior accident year reserve development is generally due to the emergence of additional facts that were not known or anticipated at the time of the prior reserve estimate and/or due to changes in interpretations of information and trends.
The table below shows the range of annual reserve re-estimates experienced by The Hartford over the past ten years. The range of prior accident year development shown in the table below is net of losses ceded, including losses ceded under two adverse
development cover reinsurance agreements with NICO that are accounted for as a deferred gain on retroactive reinsurance. The amount of prior accident year development (as shown in the reserve rollforward) for a given calendar year is expressed as a percent of the beginning calendar year reserves, net of reinsurance. The ranges presented are significantly influenced by the facts and circumstances of each particular year and by the fact that only the last ten years are included in the range. Accordingly, these percentages are not intended to be a prediction of the range of possible future variability. For further discussion of the potential for variability in recorded loss reserves, see Preferred Reserving Methods by Line of Business and Impact of Key Assumptions on Reserves sections.
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Range of Prior Accident Year Unfavorable (Favorable) Development for the Ten Years Ended December 31, 2023
| Commercial Lines | Personal Lines | Property & Casualty Other Operations | Total Property & Casualty [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual range of prior accident year unfavorable (favorable) development for the ten years ended December 31, 2023 | (1.3%) - 0.4% | (20.5%) - 8.3% | 0.9% - 9.8% | (1.9%) - 2.4% |
[1]Excluding the reserve increases for asbestos and environmental reserves, over the past ten years, reserve re-estimates for total property and casualty insurance ranged from (1.9%) to 1.0%.
The potential variability of the Company’s property and casualty insurance product reserves would normally be expected to vary by segment and the types of loss exposures insured by those segments. Illustrative factors influencing the potential reserve variability for each of the segments are discussed under Critical Accounting Estimates for Property & Casualty Insurance
Product Reserves and Asbestos and Environmental Reserves. See the section entitled Property & Casualty Other Operations, Annual Reserve Reviews about the impact that the A&E ADC retroactive reinsurance agreement with NICO has on net reserve changes of asbestos and environmental reserves.
|GROUP BENEFIT LTD RESERVES, NET OF REINSURANCE
The Company establishes reserves for group life and accident & health contracts, including long-term disability coverage, for both reported claims and claims related to insured events that the Company estimates have been incurred but have not yet been reported. As long-term disability reserves are long-tail claim liabilities, they are discounted because the payment pattern and the ultimate costs are reasonably fixed and determinable on an individual claim basis. The Company held $6,619 and $6,535 of LTD unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance, as of December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.
Reserving Methodology
How Reserves are Set -A Disabled Life Reserve ("DLR") is calculated for each LTD claim. The DLR for each claim is the expected present value of all future benefit payments starting with the known monthly gross benefit which is reduced for estimates of the expected claim recovery due to return to work or claimant death, offsets from other income including offsets from Social Security benefits, and discounting where the discount rate is tied to expected investment yield at the time the claim is incurred. Estimated future benefit payments represent the monthly income benefit that is paid until recovery, death or expiration of benefits. Claim recoveries are estimated based on claim characteristics such as age and diagnosis and represent an estimate of benefits that will terminate, generally as a result of the claimant returning to work or being deemed able to return to work. For claims recently closed due to recovery, a portion of the DLR is retained for the possibility that the claim reopens upon further evidence of disability. In addition, a reserve for estimated unpaid claim expenses is included in the DLR.
The DLR also includes a liability for potential payments to pending claimants beyond the elimination period who have not yet been approved for LTD. In these cases, the present value of future benefits is reduced for the likelihood of claim denial based on Company experience.
Estimates for IBNR claims are made by applying completion factors to expected emerged experience by line of business. Included within IBNR are bulk reserves for claims reported but still within the waiting period until benefits are paid, typically 3 or 6 months depending on the contract. Completion factors are
derived from standard actuarial techniques using triangles that display historical claim count emergence by incurral month. These estimates are reviewed for reasonableness and are adjusted for current trends and other factors expected to cause a change in claim emergence. The reserves include an estimate of unpaid claim expenses, including a provision for the cost of initial set-up of the claim once reported.
For all products, including LTD, there is a period generally ranging from two to twelve months, depending on the product and line of business, where emerged claims for an incurral year are not yet credible enough to be a basis for estimating reserves. In these cases, the ultimate loss is estimated using earned premium multiplied by an expected loss ratio based on pricing assumptions of claim incidence, claim severity, and earned pricing adjusted for emerging trends as needed.
Impact of Key Assumptions on Reserves
The key assumptions affecting long-term disability, which is the largest reserve within Group Benefits, include:
Discount Rate -The discount rate is the interest rate at which expected future claim cash flows are discounted to determine the present value. A higher selected discount rate results in a lower reserve. If the discount rate is higher than our future investment returns, our invested assets will not earn enough investment income to cover the discount accretion on our claim reserves which would negatively affect our profits. For each incurral year, the discount rates are estimated based on investment yields expected to be earned net of investment expenses. The incurral year is the year in which the claim is incurred and the estimated settlement pattern is determined. Once established, discount rates for each incurral year are unchanged except that LTD reserves assumed from the acquisition of Aetna's U.S. group life and disability business are all discounted using rates as of the November 1, 2017 acquisition date. The weighted average discount rate on LTD reserves was 3.2% and 3.2% in 2023 and 2022, respectively. Had the discount rate for each incurral year been 10 basis points lower at the time they were established, our LTD unpaid
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loss and loss adjustment expense reserves would be higher by $30, before tax, as of December 31, 2023.
Claim Termination Rates (inclusive of mortality, recoveries, and expiration of benefits) -Claim termination rates are an estimate of the rate at which claimants will cease receiving benefits during a given calendar year. Terminations result from a number of factors, including death, recoveries and expiration of benefits. The probability that benefits will terminate in each future month for each claim is estimated using a predictive model that uses past Company experience, contract provisions, job characteristics and other claimant-specific characteristics such as diagnosis, time since disability began, and age. Actual claim termination experience will vary from period to period. Over the past 10 years, claim termination rates for a single incurral year have generally increased and have ranged from 4% below to 13% above current assumptions over that time period. For a single recent incurral year (such as 2023), a one percent decrease in our assumption for LTD claim termination rates would increase our reserves by $13. For all incurral years combined, as of
December 31, 2023, a one percent decrease in our assumption for our LTD claim termination rates would increase our Group Benefits unpaid losses and loss adjustment expense reserves by $27.
Current Trends Contributing to Reserve Uncertainty
We have observed delays in the Social Security Administration’s processing of disability claims, which reduces or slows down the recognition of offsets to claimant benefits. If we have a downturn in the economy and/or in employment levels, we could experience an increase in claim incidence on long-term disability claims.
By investing in fixed income securities of similar duration to our liabilities, we hedge our interest rate exposure over a three year period at the time we price and sell long-term disability policies given average three year rate guarantees. Our weighted average discount rate assumption for the 2023 incurral year is up from that of the 2022 incurral year.
|EVALUATION OF GOODWILL FOR IMPAIRMENT
Goodwill balances are reviewed for impairment at least annually, or more frequently if events occur or circumstances change that would indicate that a triggering event for a potential impairment has occurred. The recognition and measurement of goodwill impairment is based on the excess of the carrying value of the reporting unit over its estimated fair value, up to the amount of the reporting unit’s goodwill.
The estimated fair value of each reporting unit incorporates multiple inputs into discounted cash flow calculations including assumptions that market participants would make in valuing the reporting unit. Assumptions include levels of economic capital, future business growth, earnings projections, assets under management for Hartford Funds and the weighted average cost of capital used for purposes of discounting. Decreases in business growth, decreases in earnings projections and
increases in the weighted average cost of capital will all cause a reporting unit’s fair value to decrease, increasing the possibility of impairment.
A reporting unit is defined as an operating segment or one level below an operating segment. The Company’s reporting units for which goodwill has been allocated consist of Commercial Lines, Personal Lines, Group Benefits and Hartford Funds.
The annual goodwill assessment for the reporting units was completed as of October 31, 2023, and resulted in no write-downs of goodwill for the year ended December 31, 2023. All reporting units passed the annual impairment test with a significant margin. For information on goodwill see Note 10 - Goodwill & Other Intangible Assets of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
|VALUATION OF INVESTMENTS AND DERIVATIVE INSTRUMENTS
Fixed Maturities, Equity Securities, Short-term Investments, and Derivatives
The Company generally determines fair values using valuation techniques that use prices, rates, and other relevant information evident from market transactions involving identical or similar instruments. Valuation techniques also include, where appropriate, estimates of future cash flows that are converted into a single discounted amount using current market expectations. The Company uses a "waterfall" approach comprised of the following pricing sources which are listed in priority order: quoted prices, prices from third-party pricing services, internal matrix pricing, and independent broker quotes. The fair values of derivative instruments are determined primarily using a discounted cash flow model or option model technique and incorporate counterparty credit risk. In some cases, quoted market prices for exchange-traded transactions and transactions cleared through central clearing houses ("OTC-cleared") may be used and in other cases independent
broker quotes may be used. For further discussion, see the Fixed Maturities, Equity Securities, Short-term Investments and Derivatives section in Note 4 - Fair Value Measurements of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
Evaluation of Credit Losses on Fixed Maturities, AFS and ACL on Mortgage Loans
Each quarter, a committee of investment and accounting professionals evaluates investments to determine if a credit loss is present for fixed maturities, AFS or an ACL is required for mortgage loans. This evaluation is a quantitative and qualitative process, which is subject to risks and uncertainties. For further discussion of the accounting policies, see the Significant Investment Accounting Policies Section in Note 1 - Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. For a discussion of credit losses recorded, see the Credit Losses on Fixed Maturities, AFS and Intent-to-Sell Impairments and ACL on Mortgage Loans
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sections within the Investment Portfolio Risks and Risk Management section of the MD&A.
|CONTINGENCIES RELATING TO CORPORATE LITIGATION AND REGULATORY MATTERS
Management evaluates each contingent matter separately. A loss is recorded if probable and reasonably estimable. Management establishes reserves for these contingencies at its “best estimate,” or, if no one number within the range of possible losses is more probable than any other, the Company records an estimated reserve at the low end of the range of losses.
The Company has a quarterly monitoring process involving legal and accounting professionals. Legal personnel first identify outstanding corporate litigation and regulatory matters posing a reasonable possibility of loss. These matters are then jointly reviewed by accounting and legal personnel to evaluate the facts and changes since the last review in order to determine if a provision for loss should be recorded or adjusted, the amount that should be recorded, and the appropriate disclosure. The outcomes of certain contingencies currently being evaluated by
the Company, which relate to corporate litigation and regulatory matters, are inherently difficult to predict, and the reserves that have been established for the estimated settlement amounts are subject to significant changes. Management expects that the ultimate liability, if any, with respect to such lawsuits, after consideration of provisions made for estimated losses, will not be material to the consolidated financial condition of the Company. In view of the uncertainties regarding the outcome of these matters, as well as the tax-deductibility of payments, it is possible that the ultimate cost to the Company of these matters could exceed the reserve by an amount that would have a material adverse effect on the Company’s consolidated results of operations or liquidity in a particular quarterly or annual period.
The text of this filing, as the company filed it with the SEC, without its images or exhibits. This is not investment advice.