AES CORP

During 2024 and beyond, we expect to face the following challenges at certain of our businesses. Management expects that improved operating performance at certain businesses, growth from new businesses, and global cost reduction initiatives may lessen or offset their impact. If these favorable effects do not occur, or if the challenges described below and elsewhere in this section impact us more significantly than we currently anticipate, or if volatile foreign currencies and commodities move more unfavorably, then these adverse factors (or other adverse factors unknown to us) may have a material impact on our operating margin, net income attributable to The AES Corporation and cash flows. We continue to monitor our operations and address challenges as they arise. For the risk factors related to our business, see Item 1.—Business and Item 1A.—Risk Factors of this Form 10-K.

Operational

Trade Restrictions and Supply Chain— On March 29, 2022, the U.S. Department of Commerce (“Commerce”) announced the initiation of an investigation into whether imports into the U.S. of solar cells and panels imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam (“Southeast Asia”) are circumventing antidumping and countervailing duty (“AD/CVD”) orders on solar cells and panels from China. This investigation resulted in significant systemic disruptions to the import of solar cells and panels from Southeast Asia. On June 6, 2022, President Biden issued a Proclamation waiving any circumvention duties on imported solar cells and panels from Southeast Asia that result from this investigation for a 24-month period ending June 6, 2024. Suppliers resumed importing cells and panels from Southeast Asia into the U.S. pursuant to a Commerce certification regime implementing the Proclamation.

On December 2, 2022, Commerce issued country-wide affirmative preliminary determinations that circumvention had occurred in each of the four Southeast Asian countries. Commerce also evaluated numerous individual companies and issued preliminary determinations that circumvention had occurred with respect to many but not all of these companies. Additionally, Commerce issued a preliminary determination that circumvention would not be deemed to occur for any solar cells and panels imported from the four countries if the wafers were manufactured outside of China or if no more than two out of six specifically identified components were produced in China. On August 18, 2023, Commerce issued its final determinations on the matter and affirmed its preliminary findings in most respects. Additionally, Commerce found that three of the specific companies it investigated were not circumventing.

On December 29, 2023, Auxin Solar and Concept Clean Energy filed a lawsuit with the U.S. Court of International Trade, challenging certain aspects of the final rule promulgated by Commerce to implement the Proclamation. The lawsuit specifically challenges Commerce’s decisions not to suspend the final disposition of certain entries of imported solar cells and panels from Southeast Asia made prior to June 6, 2024, and not to collect AD/CVD deposits with respect to those entries. The Department of Justice has responded by filing a motion to dismiss the lawsuit.

Additionally, the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (“UFLPA”) seeks to block the import of products made with forced labor in certain areas of China and may lead to certain suppliers being blocked from importing solar cells and panels to the U.S. While this has impacted the U.S. market, AES has managed this issue without significant impact to our projects. Further disruptions may impact our suppliers’ ability or willingness to meet their contractual agreements or to continue to supply cells or panels into the U.S. market on terms that we deem satisfactory.

The impact of any additional adverse Commerce determinations or other tariff disputes or litigation, the impact of the UFLPA, potential future disruptions to the solar panel supply chain and their effect on AES’ U.S. solar project development and construction activities remain uncertain. AES will continue to monitor developments and take prudent steps towards maintaining a robust supply chain for our renewables projects.

We have contracted and secured our expected requirements for solar panels for U.S. projects targeted to achieve commercial operations in 2024.

Operational Sensitivity to Dry Hydrological Conditions — Our hydroelectric generation facilities are sensitive to changes in the weather, particularly the level of water inflows into generation facilities. In the past, dry hydrological conditions in Panama, Brazil, Colombia and Chile have presented challenges for our businesses in these markets. Low rainfall and water inflows have caused reservoir levels to be below historical levels, reduced generation output, and increased prices for electricity. If our hydroelectric generation facilities cannot generate sufficient energy to meet contractual arrangements, we may need to purchase energy to fulfill our obligations, which could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations. As a mitigation measure, AES has invested in thermal, wind, and solar generation assets, which have a complementary profile to hydroelectric plants. These plants are expected to have a higher generation in low hydrology scenarios, which allows them to generate additional revenues from the spot that offset purchases on the hydroelectric side.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ("NOAA"), El Niño conditions are observed and forecasted through the beginning of Q2 of 2024. Hydrological conditions thereafter are uncertain, but indications suggest either a return to normalized patterns or an emergence of La Niña for the remainder of 2024. In Panama, consistent with expected El Niño impacts, local hydrological forecasts indicate below historical average inflows persisting into Q2 of 2024, which could impact our results of operations. AES reduced its total generation exposure in Panama to dry hydrological conditions through investments in such complementary assets as the Colon LNG power facility, which commenced operations in 2018, the Penonome Wind Farm, and solar projects, providing a stable and independent diversified energy supply during periods of drought or when hydroelectric generation is limited. In Panama, the La Niña phenomenon in contrast to El Niño typically means wetter conditions than average, although local system impacts may vary due to other factors. Higher hydrology may result in energy surpluses after covering the contracted hydro positions, available to be sold in the spot market after fulfilling contract obligations.

In Brazil, El Niño generally means more rainfall in the South and higher temperatures in the central region of the country, as seen in the last quarter of 2023, while La Niña results in more rainfall in the North, drier conditions in the South and milder temperatures in the central region, which could result in lower demand. Current system reservoir levels are high which supports continued lower spot prices through 2024 mitigating hydrological risk – lower prices limit external thermal generation which, if dispatched, could impact demand for the AES hydro generation. In Colombia, El Niño is characterized by drought and may result in higher spot prices. Lower overall AES Chivor hydrology may result in increased spot price energy exposure to cover contracted positions. The basin where AES Chivor is located typically experiences wet conditions from June through September in contrast with the broader system, which can result in additional energy available to sell in the spot market after fulfilling contract obligations as experienced earlier in 2023. La Niña in Colombia is characterized by more rainfall possibly leading to a decrease in spot prices. However, during La Niña impacts vary and the basin where Chivor is located may experience drier conditions than the system, notably between June and September. In Chile, the primary driver for AES’ hydro assets is snowpack volumes. Lower snowpack, together with reduced rainfall in the system, could increase both spot prices and energy purchase volumes required to meet contracted positions.

The exact behavior pattern and strength of El Niño and the potential evolution towards La Niña cannot be definitively known at this time and therefore the impacts could vary from those described above, and may include impacts to our businesses beyond hydrology, including with respect to power generation from other renewable sources of energy and demand. Even if rainfall and water inflows return to or exceed historical averages, in some cases high market prices and low generation could persist until reservoir levels are fully recovered. Further, investments made in thermal, wind, and solar power generation may benefit from uncontracted spot sales at higher market prices. Our thermal assets in Panama may alternatively be impacted by low dispatch due to low market prices in the event of a La Niña. Impacts may be material to our results of operations.

Macroeconomic and Political

The macroeconomic and political environments in some countries where our subsidiaries conduct business have changed during 2023. This could result in significant impacts to tax laws and environmental and energy policies. Additionally, we operate in multiple countries and as such are subject to volatility in exchange rates at the subsidiary level. See Item 7A.—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk for further information.

Argentina — The recent election of President Javier Milei on December 10, 2023, marks a pivotal moment in Argentina's economic landscape. The entering administration issued Decree No. 55/23, signaling a commitment to total economic deregulation. This decree declares a state of emergency in the power sector, tariff revisions for electric power and natural gas transport and distribution, and a broader proposal for sector-wide reform.

President Milei also proposed a new bill, currently under review by Congress, that seeks to overhaul the energy regulatory framework. Emphasizing deregulation, the bill opens avenues for privatization of state-owned energy companies. These proposed changes may have a profound impact on the sector, influencing our operations and financial results. It is not yet possible to predict the impact of these regulations in our consolidated results of operations, cash flows, and financial condition.

Inflation Reduction Act and U.S. Renewable Energy Tax Credits — The Inflation Reduction Act (the “IRA”) was signed into law in the United States. The IRA includes provisions that are expected to benefit the U.S. clean energy industry, including increases, extensions, direct transfers and/or new tax credits for onshore and offshore wind, solar, storage and hydrogen projects. We expect that the extension of the current solar investment tax credits ("ITCs"), as well as higher credits available for projects that satisfy wage and apprenticeship requirements, will increase demand for our renewables products.

Our U.S. renewables business has a 51 GW pipeline that we intend to utilize to continue to grow our business, and these changes in tax policy are supportive of this strategy. We account for U.S. renewables projects according to U.S. GAAP, which, when partnering with tax-equity investors to monetize tax benefits, utilizes the HLBV method. This method recognizes the tax-credit value that is transferred to tax equity investors at the time of its creation, which for projects utilizing the investment tax credit begins in the quarter the project is placed in service. For projects utilizing the production tax credit, this value is recognized over 10 years as the facility produces energy.

The IRA also allows us to directly transfer investment tax credits to unrelated tax credit buyers. We account for the transfer proceeds as tax benefit throughout the year the renewables project is placed in service.

In 2023, we realized $611 million of earnings from Tax Attributes, comprised of $593 million from the Renewables SBU and $18 million from the Utilities SBU. In 2024, we expect an increase in Tax Attributes earned by our U.S. renewables business in line with the growth in that business. Based on construction schedules, a significant portion of these earnings will be realized in the fourth quarter.

The implementation of the IRA requires substantial guidance from the U.S. Department of Treasury and other government agencies. While some of that guidance remains pending, there will be uncertainty with respect to the implementation of certain provisions of the IRA.

Global Tax— The macroeconomic and political environments in the U.S. and in some countries where our subsidiaries conduct business have changed during 2022 and 2023. This could result in significant impacts to future tax law. In the U.S., the IRA includes a 15% corporate alternative minimum tax based on adjusted financial statement income. Additional guidance is expected to be issued in 2024.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, the European Commission adopted an amended Directive on Pillar 2 establishing a global minimum tax at a 15% rate. The adoption requires EU Member States to transpose the Directive into their respective national laws by December 31, 2023 for the rules to come into effect as of January 1, 2024. During 2023, the Netherlands, Bulgaria and Vietnam adopted legislation to implement Pillar 2 effective as of January 1, 2024. We will continue to monitor the issuance of draft legislation in other non-EU countries where the Company operates that are considering Pillar 2 amendments. The impact to the Company remains unknown but may be material.

Inflation— In the markets in which we operate, there have been higher rates of inflation recently. While most of our contracts in our international businesses are indexed to inflation, in general, our U.S.-based generation contracts are not indexed to inflation. If inflation continues to increase in our markets, it may increase our expenses that we may not be able to pass through to customers. It may also increase the costs of some of our development projects that could negatively impact their competitiveness. Our utility businesses do allow for recovering of operations and maintenance costs through the regulatory process, which may have timing impacts on recovery.

Interest Rates— In the U.S. and other markets in which we operate, there has been a rise in interest rates during 2021 through 2023, and interest rates are expected to remain volatile in the near term. As discussed in Item 7A.—Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk, although most of our existing corporate and subsidiary debt is at fixed rates, an increase in interest rates can have several impacts on our business. For any existing debt under floating rate structures and any future debt refinancings, rising interest rates will increase future financing costs. In most cases in which we have floating rate debt, our revenues serving this debt are indexed to inflation which helps mitigate the impact of rising rates. For future debt refinancings, AES actively manages a hedging program to reduce uncertainty and exposure to future interest rates. For new business, higher interest rates increase the financing costs for new projects under development and which have not yet secured financing.

AES typically seeks to incorporate expected financing costs into our new PPA pricing such that we maintain our target investment returns, but higher financing costs may negatively impact our returns or the competitiveness of some of our development projects. Additionally, we typically seek to enter into interest rate hedges shortly after signing PPAs to mitigate the risk of rising interest rates prior to securing long-term financing.

Puerto Rico — Our subsidiaries in Puerto Rico have long-term PPAs with state-owned PREPA, which has been facing economic challenges that could result in a material adverse effect on our business in Puerto Rico. Despite the Title III protection, PREPA has been making substantially all of its payments to the generators in line with historical payment patterns.

The Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (“PROMESA”) was enacted to create a structure for exercising federal oversight over the fiscal affairs of U.S. territories and created procedures for adjusting debt accumulated by the Puerto Rico government and, potentially, other territories (“Title III”). PROMESA also expedites the approval of key energy projects and other critical projects in Puerto Rico.

PROMESA allowed for the establishment of an Oversight Board with broad powers of budgetary and financial control over Puerto Rico. The Oversight Board filed for bankruptcy on behalf of PREPA under Title III in July 2017. As a result of the bankruptcy filing, AES Puerto Rico and AES Ilumina’s non-recourse debt of $143 million and $25 million, respectively, continue to be in technical default and are classified as current as of December 31, 2023. The non-recourse debt at AES Puerto Rico is also in payment default.

On April 12, 2022, a mediation team was appointed to prepare the plan to resolve the PREPA Title III case and related proceedings. A disclosure statement hearing was held on April 28, 2023. The mediation was extended through August 4, 2023. On November 14, 2023, the Judge presiding over the case approved the supplemental disclosure statement for PREPA’s Fourth Modified Third Amended Title III Plan of Adjustment. The

confirmation trial is still scheduled to begin March 4, 2024.

Earlier this year, AES Puerto Rico took certain measures to address identified liquidity challenges. On July 6, 2023, PREPA agreed to the release of funds in the escrow account guaranteeing AES Puerto Rico’s obligations under the Power Purchase and Operating Agreement (“PPOA”) in order to provide additional liquidity for the business. AES Puerto Rico continues to work with PREPA and its noteholders on these liquidity challenges. During Q4 2023, a restructuring support agreement was executed by AES Puerto Rico and its noteholders and a PPOA amendment was approved by PREPA. These agreements require Puerto Rico Energy Bureau ("PREB") approval to become effective. On February 2, 2024 a resolution was issued by PREB approving the PPOA amendment subject to the incorporation of certain additional terms and conditions. The Company expects the PPOA amendment and restructuring support agreement to become effective during the first quarter of 2024.

Despite these challenges and considering the information available as of the filing date, management believes the carrying amount of our long-lived assets at AES Puerto Rico of $76 million is recoverable as of December 31, 2023.

Mexico Migration and Wheeling Tariffs— The interconnection agreements for TEP and TEG under the self-supply energy regime in Mexico expire in March and April 2024, respectively. Consequently, TEG and TEP are required to migrate into the new energy regime established by the Electricity Industry Law of 2021 (“LIE”) and to execute new interconnection agreements prior to the expiration of the current interconnection agreements. In February and September 2022, respectively, TEG and TEP made formal requests to the Mexican Comision Reguladora de Energia (“CRE”) to update the projects’ permits and allow them to migrate into the LIE (“Migration Requests”).

In discussions with TEG and TEP, CRE has stated that it will not allow migration into the LIE unless the projects withdraw their respective legal challenges to certain laws, including RES/894/2020 (“Resolution 894”), which attempts to increase the wheeling tariffs paid by TEG and TEP to CFE. The increase is currently estimated to be over $90 million for the relevant period (July 2020 through March 2024). TEG and TEP have informed CRE that the agency is not entitled to reject the Migration Requests because of the legal challenges. In February 2024, the Collegiate Court ruled in favor of TEG and TEP on their challenge to Resolution 894. Nevertheless, later in February 2024, CRE denied TEG's Migration Request. TEG has formally requested that CRE issue a new permit. If CRE does not issue a new permit and if TEG cannot enter into a new interconnection agreement, TEG will not be allowed to operate after its current interconnection agreement expires. CRE is expected to determine TEP's Migration Request in the near future, but we cannot predict the outcome of that determination.

TEG and TEP will take all necessary regulatory and legal steps to protect their interests. Furthermore, if TEG and TEP are ever required to pay increased wheeling tariffs, TEG and TEP will seek to enforce their respective contractual rights to pass-through the increases to their respective offtakers. However, there are no assurances that TEG and TEP will be successful in these efforts. The inability to migrate into the LIE and/or the inability to pass-through wheeling tariff increases could have a material adverse impact on our results of operations.