AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC

Ambac's Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. This section highlights accounting estimates management views as critical because they are most important to the portrayal of the Company's financial condition; and require management to make difficult and subjective judgments regarding matters that are inherently uncertain and subject to change. These estimates are evaluated on an on-going basis considering historical developments, political events,

market conditions, industry trends and other information. There can be no assurance that actual results will conform to estimates and that reported results of operations will not be materially adversely affected by the need to make future accounting adjustments to reflect changes in these estimates from time to time.

Management has identified the following critical accounting policies and estimates: (i) valuation of specialty property and casualty losses and loss adjustment expense reserves, (ii) valuation of financial guarantee loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, and (iii) business combinations including identification and valuation of intangible assets. Management has discussed each of these critical accounting policies and estimates with the Audit Committee, including the reasons why they are considered critical and how current and anticipated future events impact those determinations. Additional information about these policies can be found in Note 2. Basis of Presentation and Significant Accounting Policies to the Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 in this Form 10-K.

Valuation of Specialty Property and Casualty Losses and Loss Expense Reserves

The specialty property and casualty insurance segment consist of Everspan-affiliated carriers. Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves represent management's estimate of the ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses for claims that have been reported and claims that have been incurred, but not yet reported ("IBNR") as of the balance sheet date.

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves by line of business were as follows as of December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023:

(1) Unallocated loss adjustment expenses.

(2) Includes $35,146 and $0 total loss and loss expense reserves on a gross and net of reinsurance basis related to legacy liabilities obtained from the acquisitions of Providence Washington Insurance Company, Greenwood Insurance Company and Consolidated Specialty Insurance Company. All legacy liabilities remain obligations of affiliates of the sellers through reinsurance and contractual indemnities.

(1) Unallocated loss adjustment expenses.

(2) Includes $43,751 and $0 total loss and loss expense reserves on a gross and net of reinsurance basis related to legacy liabilities obtained from the acquisitions of Providence Washington Insurance Company, Greenwood Insurance Company, Consolidated National Insurance Company and Consolidated Specialty Insurance Company. All legacy liabilities remain obligations of affiliates of the sellers through reinsurance and contractual indemnities.

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves, evaluated at a program and line of business level, are estimated based upon experience and using a variety of actuarial methods and are subject to the impact of future changes in factors such as claim severity and frequency, underwriting and claims practices, changes in social and economic conditions including the impact of inflation, legal and judicial developments, medical cost trends and upward trends in damage awards. The key assumptions used to arrive at the best estimate of loss reserves are the expected loss ratios and loss development factors representing reported and paid loss emergence patterns. Our actuarial methods may also rely on external data, such as industry loss ratios, loss development factors, or trend factors. The initial estimate for an accident year is generally based on an exposure-based method using the loss ratio projection method. The loss ratio projection method develops an initial estimate of ultimate claims and claim adjustment expenses for an accident year by multiplying earned premium for the accident year by a projected loss ratio. The projected loss ratio is determined by analyzing prior period experience, and adjusting for loss cost trends, rate level differences, mix of business changes and industry loss ratios and other known or observed factors influencing the accident year relative to prior accident years.

The loss and loss adjustment expense reserves estimate may be based on a judgmental weighting of estimates produced from multiple estimation and analysis methods considered. The method(s) selected and weighted are those that are believed to produce the most accurate estimate at that particular evaluation date. The following estimation and analysis methods are principally used by the Company’s engaged independent actuarial specialists to estimate the ultimate cost of loss and loss adjustment expenses. These estimation and analysis methods are typically referred to as conventional actuarial methods.

•The paid loss development method assumes that the future change (positive or negative) in cumulative paid losses for a given cohort of claims will occur in a stable, predictable pattern from year-to-year, consistent with the pattern observed in past cohorts.

•The case incurred development method is the same as the paid loss development method, but is based on cumulative case-incurred losses rather than paid losses.

•The Bornhuetter-Ferguson method uses an initial estimate of ultimate losses for a given product line reserve component, typically expressed as a ratio to earned premium. The method assumes that the ratio of additional claim activity to earned premium for that component is relatively stable and predictable over time and that actual claim activity to date is not a credible predictor of further activity for that component. The method is used most often for more recent accident years where claim data is sparse and/or volatile, with a transition to other methods as the underlying claim data becomes more voluminous and therefore more credible.

The actuarial results provide a range of estimated losses by program and line of business including a low, central and high estimate of losses and loss expenses. Management typically selects the respective midpoint loss ratio between the actuarial determined central and high estimate for its active programs and lines of business for each respective accident year when recording loss and loss adjustment expense reserves. Beginning December 31, 2024, management decided to set loss reserves for programs that are in runoff at the high end of the respective actuarial loss ranges, given these program can experience greater loss volatility than active programs.

Since the reserves are based on estimates, the ultimate liability may be more or less than such reserves. Ambac's actuarial evaluation at December 31, 2024 provided a range of losses incurred. Losses at the low end of the range would be below our recorded gross and net loss expense reserves by approximately $33,400 and $6,900, respectively at December 31, 2024, and losses at the high end of the range would exceed our recorded gross and net loss and loss adjustment expense reserve by approximately $4,500 and $1,000, respectively at December 31, 2024. This range reflects low and high reasonable reserve estimates determined after using judgment to adjust the methods, factors, and assumptions selected within the internal reserve review. This approach produces a range of reasonable reserve estimates but does not represent a distribution of all possible outcomes.

Additionally, changes in assumptions such as loss development patterns and expected loss ratios can result in variability in actuarial estimates.

•For the loss development pattern we considered the impact of the reported incurred losses developing faster or slower than expected in our projections. For every 1.0% slower or faster the losses develop, we would expected our net indicated reserves to increase or decrease, respectively, by approximately 0.8%. If our reported loss development pattern was 5% slower, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 4% higher. If our reported loss development pattern was 5% faster, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 4% lower.

•For the expected losses we utilize industry benchmark loss ratios and internal pricing loss ratios applied to earned premium. For every 1.0% higher or lower the expected losses are, we would expected our net indicated reserves to increase or decrease by approximately 0.55%. If our expected losses were 5% higher, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 3% higher. If our expected losses were 5% lower, the net indicated reserves would be approximately 3% lower.

Consequently, final outcomes may be greater or less than the estimates. The extent of the range and variability of loss and loss adjustment expense reserves could be further impacted by future changes in factors discussed above. See “Risk Factors” in Part I, Item 1A in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Valuation of Legacy Financial Guarantee Losses and Loss Expense Reserves (including Subrogation Recoverables)

The legacy financial guarantee ("LFG") business includes the activities of AAC and its wholly owned subsidiaries, including Ambac UK, and are reported as discontinued operations in the Consolidated Financial Statements. Refer to Note 5. Discontinued Operations to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for a discussion of the pending sale of these entities to the Buyer. As a result of the pending sale, the LFG loss and loss adjustment expense reserves and subrogation recoverable assets (collectively defined as "loss reserves") discussed in this section are reported within liabilities held-for-sale and assets-held-for sale, respectively, on the consolidated balance sheet.

A loss reserve is recorded on the balance sheet on a policy-by-policy basis at the present value ("PV") of expected net claim cash outflows or expected net recovery cash inflows, discounted at risk-free rates. The estimate for future net cash flows considers the likelihood of all possible outcomes that may occur from missed principal and/or interest payments on the insured obligation. This estimate also considers future recoveries related to contractual or subrogation-related cash flows.

The evaluation process for expected future net cash flows is subject to estimates and judgments regarding the probability of default by the issuer of the insured security, the probability of negotiation or settlement outcomes (which may include commutation, litigation and other settlements, and/or a refinancing), the probability of restructuring outcomes (which may include payment moratoriums, debt haircuts and/or subsequent recoveries) and the expected loss severity of credits for each insurance contract.

As the probability of default for an individual credit increases and/or the severity of loss given a default increases, our loss reserve for that insured obligation will also increase. Political, economic, environmental, credit or other unforeseen events could have an adverse impact on default probabilities and loss severities. The loss reserves for many transactions are derived from the issuer’s creditworthiness. For public finance issuers, loss reserves will consider not only creditworthiness, but also political dynamics and economic status and prospects. The loss reserves for transactions which have no direct issuer support, such as most structured finance exposures, including RMBS and student loan exposures, are derived from the default activity and the estimated loss given default of the underlying collateral supporting the transactions. In addition, many transactions have a combination of issuer/entity and collateral support. Loss

reserves reflect our assessment of the transaction’s overall structure, support and expected performance. Loss reserve volatility will be a direct result of the credit performance of our insured portfolio, including the number, size, bond types and quality of credits included in our loss reserves; our ability to execute workout strategies and commutations; economic and market conditions; and management's judgments with regards to the current performance and future developments within the insured portfolio. The number and severity of credits included in our loss reserves depend to a large extent on transaction specific attributes, but will generally increase during periods of economic stress and decline during periods of economic prosperity. Reinsurance contracts may mitigate future loss reserve volatility. While Ambac currently has minimal exposure ceded to reinsurers on financial guarantee credits with loss reserves, the existing reinsurance contracts would reduce future volatility to the extent loss reserves are established on those risks ceded to reinsurers. Loss reserve volatility will also be materially impacted by changes in interest rates from period to period.

The table below indicates the gross par outstanding and gross loss reserves (including loss expenses) related to policies in Ambac’s Financial Guarantee loss and loss adjustment expense reserves at December 31, 2024 and 2023:

See Note 5. Discontinued Operation to the Consolidated Financial Statements, included in Part II, Item 8 in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for a description of the cash flow and statistical methodologies used to develop loss reserves. The majority of our large loss reserves utilize the cash flow method of reserving. Various cash flow scenarios are developed to represent the range of possible outcomes and resultant future claim payments and timing. Scenarios and probabilities of each are adjusted regularly to reflect changes in status, outlook and our analysis and views. Significant judgment is used to develop the cash flow assumptions and related probabilities, and there can be no certainty that the scenarios or probabilities will not deviate materially from ultimate outcomes.

•In some cases, such as RMBS and student loans, cash flow projections include the modeling of a securitization's cash flows to determine the resources available to pay debt service on our insured obligations. During 2023, Ambac revised the model it uses to project RMBS collateral losses considering the seasoning of our RMBS exposure and management’s view that the most relevant determinant of prospective collateral performance is borrower payment status (e.g., loan status being current, delinquent, foreclosure, REO, etc.). Key assumptions impacting student loan cash flow models include projected loan defaults, recoveries and interest rates. During 2023, we revised our approach to projecting future defaults to both reflect the student loan collateral's seasoning and generally stable performance.

•In other cases, such as many public finance exposures, we consider the issuer's overall ability and willingness to pay as it relates to the existing fiscal, economic, legal, restructuring and/or political framework relevant to a particular exposure or group of exposures. We then develop multiple scenarios where issuer debt service is paid, missed and/or haircut with claims paid then factor in any projected recovery amount (and potential variability of the recovery amount) and the timing thereof. There is no certainty our assumptions as to scenarios or probabilities will not be subject to material changes as developments occur.

•In estimating loss reserves, we may also incorporate scenarios which represent the potential outcome of remediation strategies. Remediation scenarios could include (i) a potential refinancing of the transaction by the issuer; (ii) the issuer’s ability to redeem outstanding securities at a discount, thereby increasing the structure’s ability to absorb future losses; and (iii) our ability to terminate, restructure or commute the policy in whole or in part. The remediation scenarios and the related probabilities of occurrence vary by policy depending on ongoing and expected discussions and negotiations with issuers and/or investors.

Variability of Expected Losses and Recoveries

Management believes loss reserves (present value of expected cash flows, net of recoveries) are adequate to cover future claim payments, but there can be no assurance that the ultimate liability will not be higher than such estimates.

While our LFG loss reserves reflect our judgment regarding issuers’ financial flexibility to adapt to adverse markets, they may not adequately capture sudden, unexpected or protracted uncertainty that adversely affects market conditions. Accordingly, it is possible that our estimated loss reserves, gross of reinsurance, for financial guarantee insurance policies could be understated. We have attempted to identify possible cash flows related to losses and recoveries using more stressful assumptions than the probability-weighted outcome recorded. The possible net cash flows consider the highest stress scenario that was utilized in the development of our probability-weighted expected loss at December 31, 2024, and assumes an inability to execute any commutation transactions with issuers and/or investors. Such stress scenarios are developed based on management’s view about all possible outcomes relating to losses and recoveries. In arriving at such view, management makes considerable judgments about the possibility of various future events. Although we do not believe it is possible to have stressed outcomes in all cases, it is possible that we could have stress case outcomes in some or even many cases. See “Risk

Factors” in Part I, Item 1A in this Annual Report on Form 10-K for further discussion of the risks relating to future losses and recoveries that could result in more highly stressed outcomes.

The occurrence of these stressed outcomes individually or collectively would have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition and may result in materially adverse consequence for Ambac, including (without limitation) impairing the ability of AAC to honor its financial obligations, particularly its outstanding surplus note and preferred stock obligations; the initiation of rehabilitation proceedings against AAC; and a significant drop in the value of securities issued or insured by AAC. The possible increase in loss reserves for which we have an estimate of expected loss at December 31, 2024, could be approximately $265,000.

Business Combinations

The acquired entities comprising the Insurance Distribution segment primarily represent business combinations that were accounted for under the acquisition method of accounting. The acquisition method requires us to allocate the total consideration transferred for each acquisition to the assets acquired, liabilities assumed and noncontrolling ("NCI") interests based on their fair values as of the date of acquisition, including identifiable intangible assets. The allocation of the consideration utilizes significant estimates in determining the fair values of net assets acquired, which primarily consist of customer relationship intangible assets, redeemable NCI interests and nonredeemable NCI interests.

The valuation method used to determine customer relationship intangible assets was the multi period excess earnings method "(MPEEM"), which quantifies the residual (or excess) cash flows generated by the intangible asset and discounts those cash flows to their present value. The significant assumptions used in determining the fair value of customer relationships include estimated revenue growth, customer attrition rates, operating margins, and discount rate. These estimates directly impact the amount of identified intangible assets recognized and the related amortization expense in future periods. As of December 31, 2024 and 2023, an aggregate of $333,562 and $47,289, respectively, of acquired intangible assets, net of accumulated amortization, was recorded on the Consolidated Balance Sheets, of which $323,720 and $44,585, respectively, represented customer relationships.

The valuation method to determine the fair value of redeemable NCI interests and related put and call options was the Monte Carlo Simulation. The significant fair value assumptions used in the simulation include the exercise thresholds, EBITDA forecasts, discount rate and long-term growth rate. The valuation method to determine the fair value of nonredeemable NCI interests, which do not contain put or call options, was the discounted cash flow approach. The significant fair value assumptions used in the model include estimated long term revenue and expense forecasts and the discount rate.

The excess of purchase price over the fair value of assets acquired, liabilities assumed, and NCI interests (both redeemable and nonredeemable) is recorded as goodwill. We may refine our estimates and make adjustments to the assets acquired and liabilities assumed over a measurement period, not to exceed one year from the date of acquisition.

Intangible asset impairment and useful life evaluation

We review acquired finite-lived intangible assets that are being amortized for impairment whenever events or changes in circumstance indicate that their carrying amount may not be recoverable. Qualitative factors considered include any adverse developments in regulation, unfavorable market conditions, or the extent to which an asset will be utilized. We do not believe there will be a material change in the estimates or assumptions used to calculate impairments or useful lives of amortizable intangible assets. However, if actual results are not consistent with our estimates and assumptions, we may be exposed to an acceleration of amortization or impairment losses that could be material.

Goodwill impairment evaluation

We perform the impairment assessment of goodwill at the reporting unit level within our Insurance Distribution segment on an annual basis or more frequently if circumstances indicate a possible impairment. The impairment test may first consider qualitative factors to determine whether it is more likely than not that the fair value of a reporting unit is less than its carrying amount. Examples of qualitative factors include, macroeconomic conditions, industry and market considerations, cost factors, overall financial performance, entity-specific events, events affecting reporting units and sustained changes in our stock price. If results of the qualitative assessment indicate a more likely than not determination or if we elect not to perform a qualitative assessment, a quantitative test is performed by comparing the estimated fair value using an income approach or market approach for each reporting unit with its estimated carrying value. For the 2024 annual impairment evaluation, we performed a qualitative assessment for certain reporting units and for other reporting units we elected to bypass the qualitative evaluation and perform quantitative tests. There was no goodwill impairment for any of the reporting units.

Under the quantitative assessment, the determination of fair value includes assumptions, which are considered Level 3 inputs, that are subject to risk and uncertainty. We consider different valuation approaches in the quantitative assessment. The income approach uses discounted cash flows which are dependent on subjective factors including the timing of future cash flows, the underlying margin projection assumptions, future growth rates and the discount rate. The market approach uses valuation multiples and is dependent on subjective factors including the determination of industry market multiples and EBITDA forecasts. Additionally, to corroborate our estimated fair value, we perform a market capitalization reconciliation to determine if the implied control premium is reasonable. If our assumptions or estimates in our fair value calculations change or if any of the above subjective factors vary from what was expected, this may impact our impairment analysis and result in a decline in fair value that may trigger future impairment charges.