CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INCRI

Market risk refers to potential losses arising from changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, commodity prices and/or other relevant market rates or prices. Modest market risk arises from trading activities that serve customer needs, including the hedging of interest rate and foreign exchange risk. As described below, the market risk arising from our non-trading banking activities, such as the origination of loans and deposit-gathering, is more significant. We have established enterprise-wide policies and methodologies to identify, measure, monitor and report market risk. We actively manage market risk for both non-trading and trading activities.

Non-Trading Risk

Our non-trading banking activities expose us to market risk. This market risk is composed of interest rate risk, as we have no commodity risk and de minimis direct currency and equity risk. We also have market risk related to capital markets loan originations, as well as the valuation of our MSRs. There have been no significant changes in our sources of interest rate risk, interest rate risk practices, risk framework, metrics or assumptions as described in “Market Risk — Non-Trading Risk” in our 2023 Form 10-K.

The table below presents the sensitivity of net interest income to various parallel yield curve shifts from the market implied forward yield curve. Our policies involve measuring exposures as a percentage change in net interest income over the next year due to either instantaneous or gradual parallel changes in rates relative to the market implied forward yield curve. As the following table illustrates, our balance sheet is marginally asset-sensitive; net interest income would benefit from an increase in interest rates, while exposure to a decline in interest rates is within limits established and monitored by senior management. While an instantaneous and severe shift in interest rates is included in this analysis, we believe that any actual shift in interest rates would be more gradual and, therefore, have a more modest impact.

We continue to manage asset sensitivity within the scope of our policy, changing market conditions and changes in our balance sheet. The Company’s base case net interest income assumes the forward-rate path implied by the yield curve is realized, which reflects a Fed Funds rate of 5.00% at the end of 2024, reflecting two 25 basis point reductions beginning in the second half of 2024. The rate risk exposure is then measured based on assumed changes from that base case rate path.

Our asset sensitivity remains broadly neutral as of March 31, 2024, consistent with December 31, 2023. This reflects the impacts of changes in our balance sheet mix, including securities, loans, deposits, borrowed funds and hedge activity, which is primarily comprised of received fixed swaps that offset our naturally asset-sensitive balance sheet. Our sensitivity profile exhibits asymmetry for up and down rate scenarios as we expect to see incremental deposit migration to higher rate products in response to rising rate scenarios compared to declining rate scenarios.

We use a valuation measure of exposure to structural interest rate risk, EVE, as a supplement to net interest income simulations. EVE complements net interest income simulation analysis as it estimates risk exposure over a long-term horizon. EVE measures the extent to which the economic value of assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet instruments may change in response to fluctuations in interest rates. This analysis is highly dependent upon assumptions applied to assets and liabilities with non-contractual maturities. We employ sophisticated models for prepayments and deposit pricing and attrition, which provide a granular view of cash flows based on the unique characteristics of the underlying products and customer segments. The change in value is expressed as a percentage of regulatory capital.

We use interest rate contracts as part of our ALM strategy to manage exposure to the variability in the interest cash flows on our floating-rate assets and wholesale funding, the variability in the fair value of AFS securities, and to hedge market risk on fixed-rate capital markets debt issuances.

The following table presents interest rate derivative contracts that we have entered into as of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023.

(1)Weighted average floor and cap rates represents strike rates through which CFG will receive interest if the SOFR rate falls below the floor strike rate and pay interest if the SOFR rate exceeds the cap strike rate.

(2)Weighted average floor rate represents strike rates for the short and long interest rate floors, respectively. CFG will receive interest if the SOFR rate falls below the upper strike rate and pay interest if the SOFR rate falls below the lower strike rate, effectively hedging the corridor between the two strike rates. The structure also includes a short cap and a long floor which are utilized to neutralize the initial premium.

The following table presents the average active notional amounts for our interest rate derivatives, based on contract effective date, during the remainder of 2024 and for the next five years:

(1) Pay fixed rate leg of the interest rate derivative contract is included in the computation of the weighted average pay fixed rate.

(2) Receive fixed rate leg of the interest rate derivative contract is included in the computation of the weighted average receive fixed rate.

Using the interest rate curve at March 31, 2024, we estimate that approximately $938 million in pre-tax net losses related to cash flow hedge strategies will be reclassified from AOCI to net interest income over the next 12 months, including $456 million from terminated swaps. This amount could differ from amounts actually recognized due to changes in interest rates, hedge de-designations and the addition of other hedges subsequent to March 31, 2024.

Capital Markets

A key component of our capital markets activities is the underwriting and distribution of corporate credit facilities to finance merger and acquisition transactions for our clients. We have a rigorous risk management process around these activities, including a limit structure capping our underwriting risk, potential loss, and sub-limits for specific asset classes. Further, the ability to approve underwriting exposure is delegated only to senior level individuals in the credit risk management and capital markets organizations with each transaction adjudicated in the Loan Underwriting Approval Committee.

Mortgage Servicing Rights

We have market risk associated with the value of residential MSRs, which are impacted by various types of inherent risks, including duration, basis, convexity, volatility and yield curve.

As part of our overall risk management strategy we enter into various free-standing derivatives, such as interest rate swaps, interest rate swaptions, interest rate futures and forward contracts to purchase mortgage-backed securities to economically hedge the changes in fair value of our MSRs. As of March 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, the fair value of our MSRs was $1.6 billion, and the total notional amount of related derivative contracts was $11.6 billion and $15.1 billion, respectively. Gains and losses on MSRs and the related derivatives used for hedging are included in mortgage banking fees in the Consolidated Statements of Operations.

As with our traded market risk-based activities, earnings at risk excludes the impact of MSRs. MSRs are captured under our single price risk management framework that is used for calculating a management value at risk consistent with the definition used by banking regulators.

Trading Risk

We are exposed to market risk primarily through client facilitation activities including derivatives and foreign exchange products as well as underwriting and market making activities. Exposure is created as a result of changes in interest rates and related basis spreads and volatility, foreign exchange rates, equity prices, and credit spreads on a select range of interest rates, foreign exchange, commodities, equity securities, corporate bonds and secondary loan instruments. These securities underwriting and trading activities are conducted through CBNA and Citizens JMP Securities, LLC. There have been no significant changes in our market risk governance, market risk measurement, or market risk practices including VaR, stressed VaR, sensitivity analysis, stress testing, or VaR model review and validation as described in “Market Risk — Trading Risk” in our 2023 Form 10-K.

Market Risk Regulatory Capital

The U.S. banking regulators’ “Market Risk Rule” covers the calculation of market risk capital. Under this rule, all of our client facing trades and associated hedges maintain a net low risk and qualify as “covered positions.” The internal management VaR measure is calculated based on the same population of trades that is utilized for regulatory VaR.

VaR Backtesting

Backtesting is one form of validation of the VaR model and is run daily. The Market Risk Rule requires a comparison of our internal VaR measure to the actual net trading revenue (excluding fees, commissions, reserves, intra-day trading and net interest income) for each day over the preceding year (the most recent 250 business days). Any observed loss in excess of the VaR number is taken as an exception. The level of exceptions determines the multiplication factor used to derive the VaR and SVaR-based capital requirement for regulatory reporting purposes, when applicable. We perform sub-portfolio backtesting as required under the Market Risk Rule, using models approved by our banking regulators for interest rate, credit spread and foreign exchange positions.

The following graph shows our daily net trading revenue and total internal, modeled VaR for the twelve months ended March 31, 2024.