PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC.
For the period ended Sep 30, 2025. Filed Nov 3, 2025.
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A company's report for each of its first three quarters. The financial statements are not audited. It shows how the business has moved since the last annual report, and what management says changed.
Sep 30, 2025 · Filed Nov 3, 2025
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Net Interest Income Sensitivity Analysis
NII sensitivity results for the third quarters of 2025 and 2024 follow:
Table 31: Net Interest Income Sensitivity Analysis
| Third Quarter 2025 | Third Quarter 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income Sensitivity Simulation (a) | ||
| Effect on NII in first year from shocked interest rate: | ||
| 200 basis point instantaneous increase | 1.8% | (0.5)% |
| 200 basis point instantaneous decrease | (2.9)% | (0.6)% |
(a)The effect on NII in the first year from a 100 basis point instantaneous increase or decrease is approximately half of the disclosed results for the 200 basis point scenarios.
When forecasting NII, we make certain key assumptions that can materially impact the resulting sensitivities, including the following:
Future Balance Sheet Composition: Our balance sheet composition is dynamic and based on our forecasted expectations. As of the third quarter 2025, the projected balance sheet composition by the end of year one is generally consistent with the spot composition at September 30, 2025.
Balance Sheet Forecast: Our balance sheet forecast is based on various assumptions that include key interest rate risk aspects such as loan and deposit growth, as well as mix, and is consistent with our guidance.
Deposit Betas: Deposit pricing changes are primarily driven by changes in the Federal Funds rate. PNC’s cumulative deposit beta was 37% through September 2025. We define the cumulative deposit beta as the change in deposit rate paid on total interest-bearing deposits divided by the change in the upper level of the average stated Federal Funds rate range since August 2024, the start of the current easing rate cycle. For rate sensitivity purposes, PNC assumes the cumulative deposit beta will increase modestly from the current level. For interest rate risk modeling, PNC uses dynamic beta models to adjust assumed repricing sensitivity depending on market rate levels as well as other factors. The dynamic beta assumptions reflect historical experience as well as future expectations, and are periodically updated to reflect the current view of future expectations. Actual deposit rates paid may differ from modeled projections due to variables such as competition for deposits and customer behavior.
Asset Prepayments: PNC includes prepayment assumptions for both loan and investment portfolios. Mortgage and home equity portfolios utilize an industry standard model to drive estimated prepayments that increase in lower rate environments. Commercial and
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. –Form 10-Q 33 other consumer loan portfolios assume static constant prepayment rates that are consistent across rate scenarios, as those portfolios historically do not exhibit significantly different prepayment behaviors based upon the level of market rates.
Impact of Derivatives: As part of our risk management strategy, PNC uses interest rate derivatives, some of which are forward starting, to hedge floating rate commercial loans. PNC had $54.2 billion in active and forward starting receive fix / pay float swaps as of September 30, 2025, with a weighted average duration of 2.2 years and an average fixed rate of 3.71%. PNC utilizes receive fix / pay float swaps to hedge fixed rate debt and deposits, as well as pay fix / receive float swaps to hedge the investment securities portfolio. See Note 12 Financial Derivatives for additional information on how we use derivatives to hedge these financial instruments.
Compared to the third quarter of 2024, there have been no material changes to our NII sensitivity assumptions, including data sources that drive assumptions setting.
The text of this filing, as the company filed it with the SEC, without its images or exhibits. This is not investment advice.