PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP INC

We used a number of economic variables in our scenarios, with two of the most significant drivers being real GDP and the U.S. unemployment rate. The following table presents a comparison of these two economic variables based on the weighted-average scenario forecasts used in determining our ACL at December 31, 2023 and 2022.

Table 34: Key Macroeconomic Variables in CECL Weighted-Average Scenarios

(a)Represents year-over-year growth (loss) rates.

(b)Represents quarterly average rate at December 31, 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively.

(c)Represents quarterly average rate at December 31, 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Real GDP growth is expected to slow from 3.1% in 2023 to just 0.1% in 2024 on a weighted average basis, with the slow down driven primarily by our most likely scenario that the U.S. economy enters a mild recession during the year. Growth then rises to 1.5% in 2025, before growing to 2.0% in 2026. The weighted average unemployment rate is expected to increase throughout 2024, peaking at 4.7% during the first half of 2025 and gradually improving to 4.2% by the fourth quarter of 2026.

The current state of the economy reflects heightened uncertainty due to structural and secular changes fostered by the pandemic for certain sectors of the economy, such as commercial real estate, combined with inflation, interest rate movements and declining consumer savings and deposit balances. As such, for both our commercial and consumer loan portfolios, PNC identified and performed significant analysis around segments impacted by such uncertainties to ensure our reserves are adequate, given our current macroeconomic expectations.

We believe the economic scenarios effectively reflect the distribution of potential economic outcomes. Additionally, through in-depth and granular analysis we have addressed reserve requirements for the specific populations most affected in the current environment. Through this approach, we believe the reserve levels adequately reflect the expected credit losses in the portfolio as of the balance sheet date.

To provide additional context regarding the sensitivity of the ACL to a more pessimistic forecast of expected economic outcomes, we considered what our ACL would be when applying a 100% probability weighting to the most severe downside CECL scenario. This severe downside scenario estimated that real GDP contracted in 2024 ending the year down 2.0% compared to 2023 levels, with

78 The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. –2023 Form 10-K growth picking up again by the end of 2025. The unemployment rate in this scenario increased to end 2024 at 6.3%, then peaks at 7.1% in the second half of 2025, before gradually improving to 6.0% by the end of 2026. Excluding consideration of qualitative adjustments, this sensitivity analysis would result in a hypothetical increase in our ACL of $1.7 billion at December 31, 2023. This scenario does not reflect our current expectation at December 31, 2023, nor does it capture all the potential unknown variables that could arise in the forecast period, but it provides an approximation of a possible outcome under hypothetical severe conditions. The CECL methodology inherently requires a high degree of judgment, and as a result, it is possible that we may, at another point in time, reach different conclusions regarding our credit loss estimates.

See the following for additional details on the components of our ACL:

•Allowance for Credit Losses in the Credit Risk Management section of this Item 7, and

•Note 1 Accounting Policies, Note 2 Investment Securities, and Note 3 Loans and Related Allowance for Credit Losses.

Residential and Commercial Mortgage Servicing Rights

We elect to measure our MSRs at fair value. This election was made to be consistent with our risk management strategy to hedge changes in the fair value of these assets. The fair value of our MSRs is estimated by using a discounted cash flow valuation model that calculates the present value of estimated future net servicing cash flows, taking into consideration actual and expected mortgage loan prepayment rates, discount rates, servicing costs, and other factors which are determined based on current market conditions.

We employ risk management strategies designed to protect the value of MSRs from changes in interest rates and related market factors. The values of the MSRs are economically hedged with securities and derivatives, including interest-rate swaps, options, and forward mortgage-backed and futures contracts. As interest rates change, these financial instruments are expected to have changes in fair value inverse to the change in fair value of the hedged MSR portfolios. The hedge relationships are actively managed in response to changing market conditions over the life of the MSRs. Selecting appropriate financial instruments to economically hedge residential or commercial MSRs requires significant management judgment to assess how rates and prepayment speeds could affect the future values of MSRs. Hedging results can frequently be less predictable in the short term, but over longer periods of time, they are expected to protect the economic value of the MSRs.

For information on how each estimate has changed and a sensitivity analysis of the hypothetical effect of the fair value of MSRs to immediate adverse changes in key assumptions, see Note 5 Goodwill and Mortgage Servicing Rights. For additional information on our residential and commercial MSRs, see Note 1 Accounting Policies, Note 5 Goodwill and Mortgage Servicing Rights and Note 14 Fair Value.

Fair Value Measurements - Level 3

We must use estimates, assumptions and judgments when assets and liabilities are required to be recorded at, or adjusted to reflect, fair value. Assets and liabilities carried at fair value inherently result in a higher degree of financial statement volatility. When observable price and third-party information is not available, we estimate fair value primarily by using cash flow and other financial modeling techniques. Changes in underlying factors, assumptions, or estimates in any of these valuation techniques could materially impact our future financial condition and results of operations.

We apply ASC 820 –Fair Value Measurements. This guidance defines fair value as the price that would be received to sell a financial asset or paid to transfer a financial liability in an orderly transaction between market participants at the measurement date. This guidance requires a three-level hierarchy for disclosure of assets and liabilities recorded at fair value. The classification of assets and liabilities within the hierarchy is based on whether the inputs to the valuation methodology used in the measurement are observable or unobservable. Level 3 assets and liabilities are those where the fair value is estimated using significant unobservable inputs. An asset or liability’s classification as Level 2 or Level 3 is based upon the specific facts and circumstances associated with each instrument, and management applies judgment regarding the significance of unobservable inputs to each asset or liability when determining its fair value level classification. In addition to MSRs, certain of our private equity investments and available for sale securities have a high level of estimation uncertainty and require significant management judgment to determine the fair value. While estimating potential sensitivities around fair value measurements is inherently challenging, we provide a summary of the key unobservable inputs as well as additional information on Level 3 fair value measurements in Note 14 Fair Value.

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. –2023 Form 10-K 79

Recently Issued Accounting Standards

Recently Adopted Accounting Pronouncements

See Note 1 Accounting Policies regarding the impact of new accounting pronouncements that we have adopted.

80 The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. –2023 Form 10-K