OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/

Overview

Old National has adopted a Risk Appetite Statement to enable our Board of Directors, Enterprise Risk Committee of our Board, Executive Leadership Team, and Senior Management to better assess, understand, monitor, and mitigate Old National’s risks. The Risk Appetite Statement addresses the following major risks: strategic, market, liquidity, credit, operational, talent management, compliance and regulatory, legal, and reputational. Our Chief Risk Officer provides quarterly reports to the Board’s Enterprise Risk Committee on various risk topics. The following discussion addresses certain of these major risks including credit, market, liquidity, operational, compliance and regulatory, and legal. Discussion of strategic, talent management, and reputational risks is provided in the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the Company’s 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Credit Risk

Credit risk represents the risk of loss arising from an obligor’s inability or failure to meet contractual payment or performance terms. Our primary credit risks result from our investment and lending activities.

Asset Quality

We lend to commercial and commercial real estate clients in many diverse industries including, among others, real estate rental and leasing, manufacturing, healthcare, wholesale trade, construction, and agriculture. Old National manages concentrations of credit exposure by industry, product, geography, client relationship, and loan size. At March 31, 2025, our average commercial loan size was approximately $759,000 and our average commercial real estate loan size was approximately $1,578,000. In addition, while loans to lessors of residential and non-residential real estate exceed 10% of total loans, no individual sub-segment category within those broader categories reaches the 10% threshold, other than multifamily. At March 31, 2025, we had minimal exposure to foreign borrowers and no sovereign debt. Our policy is to concentrate our lending activity in the geographic market areas we serve, primarily in the Midwest and Southeast regions of the United States.

The following table presents a summary of under-performing assets as well as criticized and classified assets:

(1)Includes investment securities that fell below investment grade rating.

(2)Loans exclude loans held-for-sale.

Under-performing assets increased to $482.3 million at March 31, 2025, compared to $456.3 million at December 31, 2024. Under-performing assets as a percentage of total loans at March 31, 2025 were 1.32%, a 6 basis point increase from 1.26% at December 31, 2024.

Nonaccrual loans increased $21.2 million from December 31, 2024 to March 31, 2025. As a percentage of nonaccrual loans, the allowance for credit losses on loans was 85.66% at March 31, 2025, compared to 87.62% at December 31, 2024.

Total criticized and classified assets were $2.8 billion at March 31, 2025, an increase of $344.1 million from December 31, 2024 primarily due to macroeconomic factors and the impact of the higher interest rate environment on borrowers. Other classified assets include investment securities that fell below investment grade rating totaling $53.2 million at March 31, 2025, compared to $59.0 million at December 31, 2024.

Allowance for Credit Losses on Loans and Unfunded Commitments

Net charge-offs on loans totaled $21.6 million during the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $11.8 million for the same period in 2024. Annualized, net charge-offs to average loans were 0.24% and 0.14% for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. The three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024 included net charge-offs on PCD loans totaling 0.03% and 0.07% on an annualized basis of average loans, respectively.

Credit quality within the loans held for investment portfolio is continuously monitored by management and is reflected within the allowance for credit losses on loans. The allowance for credit losses is an estimate of expected losses inherent within the Company’s loans held for investment portfolio. Credit quality is assessed and monitored by evaluating various attributes and the results of those evaluations are utilized in underwriting new loans and in our process for estimating expected credit losses. Expected credit loss inherent in non-cancelable off-balance-sheet credit exposures (unfunded loan commitments) is accounted for as a separate liability included in other liabilities on the balance sheet. The allowance for credit losses on loans held for investment and unfunded loan commitments is adjusted by a credit loss expense, which is reported in earnings, and reduced by the charge-off of loan amounts, net of recoveries. Accrued interest receivable is excluded from the estimate of credit losses.

The allowance for credit loss estimation process involves procedures to consider the unique characteristics of our loan portfolio segments. These segments are further disaggregated into loan classes based on the level at which credit risk of the loan is monitored. When computing the level of expected credit losses, credit loss assumptions are estimated using a model that categorizes loan pools based on loss history, delinquency status, and other credit trends and risk characteristics, including current conditions and reasonable and supportable forecasts about the future. Determining the appropriateness of the allowance is complex and requires judgment by management about the effect of matters that are inherently uncertain. In future periods, evaluations of the overall loan portfolio, in light of the factors and forecasts then prevailing, may result in significant changes in the allowance and credit loss expense in those future periods.

The allowance level is influenced by loan volumes, loan AQR migration or delinquency status, changes in historical loss experience, and other conditions influencing loss expectations, such as reasonable and supportable forecasts of economic conditions. The methodology for estimating the amount of expected credit losses reported in the allowance for credit losses on loans has two basic components: first, an asset-specific component involving individual loans that do not share risk characteristics with other loans and the measurement of expected credit losses for such individual loans; and second, a pooled component for estimated expected credit losses for pools of loans that share similar risk characteristics.

The allowance for credit losses on loans was $401.9 million at March 31, 2025, compared to $392.5 million at December 31, 2024. The increase was driven primarily by macroeconomic factors and loan growth. Continued loan growth in future periods, a decline in our current level of recoveries, or an increase in charge-offs could result in an increase in provision expense. Additionally, provision expense may be volatile due to changes in CECL model assumptions of credit quality, macroeconomic factors and conditions, and loan composition, which drive the allowance for credit losses balance.

We maintain an allowance for credit losses on unfunded loan commitments to provide for the risk of loss inherent in these arrangements. The allowance is computed using a methodology similar to that used to determine the allowance for credit losses on loans, modified to take into account the probability of a drawdown on the commitment. The allowance for credit losses on unfunded loan commitments is classified as a liability account on the balance sheet within accrued expenses and other liabilities, while the corresponding provision for unfunded loan commitments is included in the provision for credit losses. The allowance for credit losses on unfunded loan commitments totaled $22.0 million at March 31, 2025, compared to $21.7 million at December 31, 2024.

See the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the Company’s 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K for further discussion of our credit risk.

Market Risk

Market risk is the risk that the estimated fair value of our assets, liabilities, and derivative financial instruments will decline as a result of changes in interest rates or financial market volatility, or that our net income will be significantly reduced by interest rate changes.

The objective of our interest rate management process is to maximize net interest income while operating within acceptable limits established for interest rate risk and maintaining adequate levels of funding and liquidity.

Potential cash flows, sales, or replacement value of many of our assets and liabilities, especially those that earn or pay interest, are sensitive to changes in the general level of interest rates. This interest rate risk arises primarily from our normal business activities of gathering deposits and extending loans. Many factors affect our exposure to changes in interest rates, such as general economic and financial conditions, client preferences, historical pricing relationships, and re-pricing characteristics of financial instruments. Our earnings can also be affected by the monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. Government and its agencies, particularly the Federal Reserve.

In managing interest rate risk, we establish guidelines for asset and liability management, including measurement of short and long-term sensitivities to changes in interest rates, which are reviewed with the Enterprise Risk Committee of our Board of Directors. Based on the results of our analysis, we may use different techniques to manage changing trends in interest rates including:

•adjusting balance sheet mix or altering interest rate characteristics of assets and liabilities;

•changing product pricing strategies;

•modifying characteristics of the investment securities portfolio; or

•using derivative financial instruments, to a limited degree.

A key element in our ongoing process is to measure and monitor interest rate risk using a model to quantify the likely impact of changing interest rates on Old National’s results of operations. The model quantifies the effects of various possible interest rate scenarios on projected net interest income. The model measures the impact on net interest income relative to a base case scenario over a two-year cumulative horizon resulting from an immediate change in interest rates using multiple rate scenarios. The base case scenario assumes that the balance sheet and interest rates are held at current levels. The model shows our projected net interest income sensitivity based on interest rate changes only and does not consider other forecast assumptions. Due to the dynamics of future interest rate expectations, we also measure and monitor interest rate risk using the forward curve, which may be a more probable scenario of our interest rate exposure. The forward curve represents the relationship between the price of forward contracts and the time to maturity of the forward contracts at a point in time.

The following table illustrates our projected net interest income sensitivity over a two-year cumulative horizon based on the asset/liability model at March 31, 2025 and 2024:

The following table illustrates the upper bound, Federal Funds Rate assumed in the simulation above at March 31, 2025 and 2024:

(1)Represents the upper bound, Federal Funds Rate.

(2)Represents the Federal Funds Rate in month 12 given a gradual, parallel “ramp” relative to the base implied forward scenario.

Our projected net interest income increased year over year driven by loan growth and asset repricing due to current interest rates and economic conditions. Our overall strategy is consistent period over period, as we continue to manage our balance sheet toward a neutral interest rate risk position in a disciplined manner.

A key element in the measurement and modeling of interest rate risk is the re-pricing assumptions of our transaction deposit accounts, which align with our approach to deposit pricing and are consistent period over period. Because the models are driven by expected behavior in various interest rate scenarios and many factors besides market interest rates affect our net interest income, we recognize that model outputs are not guarantees of actual results. For this reason, we model many different combinations of interest rates and balance sheet assumptions to understand our overall sensitivity to market interest rate changes, including shocks, ramps, yield curve flattening, yield curve steepening, as well as forecasts of likely interest rate scenarios tested.

We use cash flow and fair value hedges, primarily interest rate swaps, collars, and floors, to mitigate interest rate risk. Derivatives designated as hedging instruments were in a net asset position with a fair value gain of $8.0 million at March 31, 2025, compared to a net liability position with a fair value loss of $7.0 million at December 31, 2024. See Note 15 to the consolidated financial statements for further discussion of derivative financial instruments.

Liquidity Risk

Liquidity risk arises from the possibility that we may not be able to satisfy current or future financial commitments or may become unduly reliant on alternative funding sources. We establish liquidity risk guidelines that we review with the Enterprise Risk Committee of our Board of Directors and monitor through our Asset/Liability Executive Management Committee. The objective of liquidity management is to ensure we have the ability to fund balance sheet growth and meet deposit and debt obligations in a timely and cost-effective manner. Management monitors liquidity through a regular review of asset and liability maturities, funding sources, and loan and deposit forecasts. We maintain strategic and contingency liquidity plans to ensure sufficient available funding to satisfy requirements for balance sheet growth, to properly manage capital markets’ funding sources, and to address unexpected liquidity requirements. On May 31, 2023, we filed an automatic shelf registration statement with the SEC that permits us to issue an unspecified amount of debt or equity securities.

Loan repayments and maturing investment securities are a relatively predictable source of funds. However, deposit flows, calls of investment securities, and prepayments of loans and mortgage-related securities are not as predictable as they are strongly influenced by interest rates, events at other banking organizations, the housing market, general and local economic conditions, and competition in the marketplace. We continually monitor marketplace trends to identify patterns that might improve the predictability of the timing of deposit flows or asset prepayments.

A maturity schedule for Old National Bank’s time deposits is shown in the following table at March 31, 2025.

Our ability to acquire funding at competitive prices is influenced by rating agencies’ views of our credit quality, liquidity, capital, and earnings.

The credit ratings of Old National and Old National Bank at March 31, 2025 are shown in the following table.

Old National Bank maintains relationships in capital markets with brokers and dealers to issue certificates of deposit and short-term and medium-term bank notes as well. At March 31, 2025, Old National and its subsidiaries had the following availability of liquid funds and borrowings:

• Based on collateral pledged

Old National Bancorp has routine funding requirements consisting primarily of operating expenses, dividends to shareholders, debt service, net derivative cash flows, and funds used for acquisitions. Old National Bancorp can obtain funding to meet its obligations from dividends and management fees collected from its subsidiaries, operating line of credit, and through the issuance of debt securities. Additionally, Old National Bancorp has a shelf registration in place with the SEC permitting ready access to the public debt and equity markets. At March 31, 2025, Old National Bancorp’s other borrowings outstanding were $328.4 million. Management believes the Company has the ability to generate and obtain adequate amounts of liquidity to meet its requirements in the short-term and the long-term.

Federal banking laws regulate the amount of dividends that may be paid by Old National Bank to Old National Bancorp on an unconsolidated basis without obtaining prior regulatory approval. Prior regulatory approval is required if dividends to be declared in any year would exceed net earnings of the current year plus retained net profits for the preceding two years. Prior regulatory approval to pay dividends was not required in 2024 and is not currently required.