OLD NATIONAL BANCORP IN

Overview

Old National has adopted a Risk Appetite Statement to enable our Board of Directors, Enterprise Risk Committee of our Board, Executive Leadership Team, and Senior Management to better assess, understand, monitor, and mitigate Old National’s risks. The Risk Appetite Statement addresses the following major risks: strategic, market, liquidity, credit, operational, talent management, compliance and regulatory, legal, and reputational. Our Chief Risk Officer provides quarterly reports to the Board’s Enterprise Risk Committee on various risk topics. The following discussion addresses certain of these major risks including credit, market, liquidity, operational, compliance and regulatory, and legal. Discussion of strategic, talent management, and reputational risks is provided in the section entitled “Risk Factors” in Item 1A of this Form 10-K.

Credit Risk

Credit risk represents the risk of loss arising from an obligor’s inability or failure to meet contractual payment or performance terms. Our primary credit risks result from our investment and lending activities.

Investment Activities

All of our mortgage-backed securities are backed by U.S. government-sponsored or federal agencies. Municipal bonds, corporate bonds, and other debt securities are evaluated by reviewing the credit-worthiness of the issuer and general market conditions. See Note 3 to the consolidated financial statements for additional details about our investment security portfolio.

Counterparty Exposure

Counterparty exposure is the risk that the other party in a financial transaction will not fulfill its obligation. We define counterparty exposure as nonperformance risk in transactions involving federal funds sold and purchased, repurchase agreements, correspondent bank relationships, and derivative contracts with companies in the financial services industry. Old National manages exposure to counterparty risk in connection with its derivatives transactions by generally engaging in transactions with counterparties having ratings of at least “A” by Standard & Poor’s Rating Service or “A2” by Moody’s Investors Service. There are provisions in our agreements with the counterparties that allow for certain unsecured credit exposure up to an agreed threshold. Exposures in excess of the agreed thresholds are collateralized. Total credit exposure is monitored by counterparty and managed within limits that management believes to be prudent. Old National’s net counterparty exposure was an asset of $28.5 million at December 31, 2024.

Lending Activities

Commercial

Commercial and industrial loans are made primarily for the purpose of financing equipment acquisition, borrower expansion, working capital, and other general business purposes. Lease financing consists of direct financing leases and is used by commercial clients to finance capital purchases ranging from computer equipment to transportation equipment. The credit decisions for these transactions are based upon an assessment of the overall financial capacity of the applicant. A determination is made as to the applicant’s ability to repay in accordance with the proposed terms as well as an overall assessment of the risks involved. In addition to an evaluation of the applicant’s financial condition, a determination is made of the probable adequacy of the primary and secondary sources of repayment, such as additional collateral or personal guarantees, to be relied upon in the transaction. Credit agency reports of the applicant’s credit history supplement the analysis of the applicant’s creditworthiness.

Commercial mortgages and construction loans are offered to real estate investors, developers, and builders primarily domiciled in the geographic Midwest and Southeast market areas we serve. These loans are secured by first mortgages on real estate at LTV margins deemed appropriate for the property type, quality, location, and sponsorship. Generally, these LTV ratios do not exceed 80%, although higher levels may be permitted with additional non-real estate collateral, increased guaranties, accelerated amortization, or other mitigating factors. The commercial properties are predominantly multi-family and non-residential properties such as retail centers, industrial properties as well as, to a lesser extent, more specialized properties. Substantially all of our commercial real estate loans are secured by properties located in our primary market area.

In the underwriting of our commercial real estate loans, we obtain appraisals for the underlying properties. Decisions to lend are based on the economic viability of the property and the creditworthiness of the borrower. In evaluating a proposed commercial real estate loan, we primarily emphasize the ratio of the property’s projected net cash flows to the loan’s debt service requirement. The debt service coverage ratio normally is not less than 120% and it is computed after deduction for a vacancy factor and property expenses as appropriate. In addition, a personal guarantee of the loan or a portion thereof is often required from the principal(s) of the borrower. In most cases, we require title insurance insuring the priority of our lien, fire and extended coverage casualty insurance, and flood insurance, if appropriate, in order to protect our security interest in the underlying property. In addition, business interruption insurance or other insurance may be required.

Construction loans are underwritten against projected cash flows derived from rental income, business income from an owner-occupant, or the sale of the property to an end-user. We may mitigate the risks associated with these types of loans by requiring fixed-price construction contracts, performance and payment bonding, controlled disbursements, and pre-sale contracts or pre-lease agreements.

Consumer

We offer a variety of first mortgage and junior lien loans to consumers within our markets, with residential home mortgages comprising our largest consumer loan category. These loans are secured by a primary residence and are underwritten using traditional underwriting systems to assess the credit risks of the consumer. Decisions are primarily based on LTV ratios, DTI ratios, liquidity, and credit scores. A maximum LTV ratio of 90% is generally required, although higher levels may be permitted with mortgage insurance or other mitigating factors. We offer fixed rate mortgages and variable rate mortgages with interest rates that are subject to change every year after the first, third, fifth, or seventh year, depending on the product and are based on indexed rates such as prime. We do not offer payment-option facilities, sub-prime loans, or any product with negative amortization.

Home equity loans are secured primarily by second mortgages on residential property of the borrower. The underwriting terms for the home equity product generally permit borrowing availability, in the aggregate, up to 90% of the appraised value of the collateral property at the time of origination. We offer fixed and variable rate home equity loans, with variable rate loans underwritten at fully-indexed rates. Decisions are primarily based on LTV ratios, DTI ratios, and credit scores. We do not offer home equity loan products with reduced documentation.

Automobile loans include loans and leases secured by new or used automobiles. We originate automobile loans and leases primarily on an indirect basis through selected dealerships. We require borrowers to maintain collision insurance on automobiles securing consumer loans, with us listed as loss payee. Our procedures for underwriting automobile loans include an assessment of an applicant’s overall financial capacity, including credit history and the ability to meet existing obligations and payments on the proposed loan. Although an applicant’s creditworthiness is the primary consideration, the underwriting process also includes a comparison of the value of the collateral security to the proposed loan amount.

Asset Quality

Community-based lending personnel, along with region-based independent underwriting and analytic support staff, extend credit under guidelines established and administered by management and overseen by our Enterprise Risk Committee. This committee, which meets quarterly, is made up of independent outside directors. The committee monitors credit quality through its general review of information such as delinquencies, credit exposures, peer comparisons, problem loans, and charge-offs. In addition, the committee provides oversight of loan policy changes as recommended by management with the objective of maintaining an appropriate lending policy for the current lending environment.

We lend to commercial and commercial real estate clients in many diverse industries including, among others, real estate rental and leasing, manufacturing, healthcare, wholesale trade, construction, and agriculture. Old National manages concentrations of credit exposure by industry, product, geography, client relationship, and loan size. At December 31, 2024, our average commercial loan size was approximately $716,000 and our average commercial real estate loan size was approximately $1,567,000. In addition, while loans to lessors of residential and non-residential real estate exceed 10% of total loans, no individual sub-segment category within those broader categories reaches the 10% threshold. At December 31, 2024, we had minimal exposure to foreign borrowers and no sovereign debt. Our policy is to concentrate our lending activity in the geographic market areas we serve, primarily in the Midwest and Southeast regions of the United States.

The following table presents a summary of under-performing assets as well as criticized and classified assets at December 31:

(1)Includes investment securities that fell below investment grade rating.

(2)Loans exclude loans held-for-sale.

Under-performing assets increased to $456.3 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $285.2 million at December 31, 2023. Under-performing assets as a percentage of total loans were 1.26% at December 31, 2024, compared to 0.86% at December 31, 2023.

Nonaccrual loans increased $173.2 million from December 31, 2023 to December 31, 2024 including $71.7 million of nonaccrual loans acquired in the CapStar acquisition. Excluding these loans, nonaccrual loans increased $101.5 million reflecting the migration of certain borrowers primarily due to asset quality rating policy changes and the impact of the higher interest rate environment. As a percentage of nonaccrual loans, the allowance for credit losses on loans was 87.62% at December 31, 2024, compared to 111.93% at December 31, 2023.

If nonaccrual and renegotiated loans outstanding at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively, had been accruing interest throughout the year in accordance with their original terms, interest income of approximately $20.4 million in 2024 and $13.4 million in 2023 would have been recorded on these loans. The amount of interest income actually recorded on nonaccrual and renegotiated loans was $12.1 million in 2024 and $5.0 million in 2023.

Total criticized and classified assets were $2.5 billion at December 31, 2024, an increase of $725.0 million from December 31, 2023 including $222.1 million of criticized and classified loans related to the CapStar acquisition. Excluding these loans, total criticized and classified assets increased $503.0 million reflecting the migration of certain borrowers primarily due to asset quality rating policy changes and the impact of the higher interest rate environment. Other classified assets include investment securities that fell below investment grade rating totaling $59.0 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $48.9 million at December 31, 2023.

Allowance for Credit Losses on Loans and Unfunded Loan Commitments

Credit quality within the loans held for investment portfolio is continuously monitored by management and is reflected within the allowance for credit losses on loans. The allowance for credit losses is an estimate of expected losses inherent within the Company’s loans held for investment portfolio. Credit quality is assessed and monitored by evaluating various attributes and the results of those evaluations are utilized in underwriting new loans and in our process for estimating expected credit losses. Expected credit loss inherent in non-cancelable off-balance-sheet credit exposures (unfunded loan commitments) is accounted for as a separate liability included in other liabilities on the balance sheet. The allowance for credit losses on loans held for investment and unfunded loan commitments is adjusted by a credit loss expense, which is reported in earnings, and reduced by the charge-off of loan amounts, net of recoveries. Accrued interest receivable is excluded from the estimate of credit losses.

The allowance for credit loss estimation process involves procedures to consider the unique characteristics of our loan portfolio segments. These segments are further disaggregated into loan classes based on the level at which credit risk of the loan is monitored. When computing the level of expected credit losses, credit loss assumptions are estimated using a model that categorizes loan pools based on loss history, delinquency status, and other credit trends and risk characteristics, including current conditions and reasonable and supportable forecasts about the future. Determining the appropriateness of the allowance is complex and requires judgment by management about the effect of matters that are inherently uncertain. In future periods, evaluations of the overall loan portfolio, in light of the factors and forecasts then prevailing, may result in significant changes in the allowance and credit loss expense in those future periods.

The allowance level is influenced by loan volumes, loan AQR migration or delinquency status, changes in historical loss experience, and other conditions influencing loss expectations, such as reasonable and supportable forecasts of economic conditions. The methodology for estimating the amount of expected credit losses reported in the allowance for credit losses on loans has two basic components: first, an asset-specific component involving individual loans that do not share risk characteristics with other loans and the measurement of expected credit losses for such individual loans; and second, a pooled component for estimated expected credit losses for pools of loans that share similar risk characteristics.

The loan categories used to monitor and analyze interest income and yields are different than the portfolio segments used to determine the allowance for credit losses on loans. The allowance for credit losses was calculated by pooling loans of similar credit risk characteristics and credit monitoring procedures. The four loan portfolios used to monitor and analyze interest income and yields – commercial, commercial real estate, residential real estate, and consumer – are reclassified into seven segments of loans – commercial, commercial real estate, BBCC, residential real estate, indirect, direct, and home equity for purposes of determining the allowance for credit losses on loans. The commercial and commercial real estate loan categories shown on the balance sheet include the same pool of loans as the commercial, commercial real estate, and BBCC portfolio segments. The consumer loan category shown on the balance sheet is comprised of the same loans in the indirect, direct, and home equity portfolio segments. The portfolio segment reclassifications follow:

The following table details activity in our allowance for credit losses on loans for the years ended December 31:

(1)Loans exclude loans held-for-sale.

The following table details net charge-offs to average loans outstanding by loan category for the years ended December 31:

(1)Average loans exclude loans held-for-sale.

The allowance for credit losses on loans was $392.5 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $307.6 million at December 31, 2023. The increase was driven primarily by the acquisition of CapStar, as well as organic loan growth and other factors. Continued loan growth in future periods, a decline in our current level of recoveries, or an increase in charge-offs could result in an increase in provision expense. Additionally, provision expense may be volatile due to changes in CECL model assumptions of credit quality, macroeconomic factors and conditions, and loan composition, which drive the allowance for credit losses balance.

The following table details the allowance for credit losses on loans by loan category and the percent of loans in each category compared to total loans at December 31.

We maintain an allowance for credit losses on unfunded loan commitments to provide for the risk of loss inherent in these arrangements. The allowance is computed using a methodology similar to that used to determine the allowance for credit losses on loans, modified to take into account the probability of a drawdown on the commitment. The allowance for credit losses on unfunded loan commitments is classified as a liability account on the balance sheet within accrued expenses and other liabilities, while the corresponding provision for unfunded loan commitments is included in the provision for credit losses. The allowance for credit losses on unfunded loan commitments totaled $21.7 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $31.2 million at December 31, 2023.

See the section entitled “Risk Factors” in Item 1A of this Form 10-K for further discussion of our credit risk.

Market Risk

Market risk is the risk that the estimated fair value of our assets, liabilities, and derivative financial instruments will decline as a result of changes in interest rates or financial market volatility, or that our net income will be significantly reduced by interest rate changes.

The objective of our interest rate management process is to maximize net interest income while operating within acceptable limits established for interest rate risk and maintaining adequate levels of funding and liquidity.

Potential cash flows, sales, or replacement value of many of our assets and liabilities, especially those that earn or pay interest, are sensitive to changes in the general level of interest rates. This interest rate risk arises primarily from our normal business activities of gathering deposits and extending loans. Many factors affect our exposure to changes in interest rates, such as general economic and financial conditions, client preferences, historical pricing relationships, and re-pricing characteristics of financial instruments. Our earnings can also be affected by the monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. Government and its agencies, particularly the Federal Reserve.

In managing interest rate risk, we establish guidelines for asset and liability management, including measurement of short and long-term sensitivities to changes in interest rates, which are reviewed with the Enterprise Risk Committee of our Board of Directors. Based on the results of our analysis, we may use different techniques to manage changing trends in interest rates including:

•adjusting balance sheet mix or altering interest rate characteristics of assets and liabilities;

•changing product pricing strategies;

•modifying characteristics of the investment securities portfolio; or

•using derivative financial instruments, to a limited degree.

A key element in our ongoing process is to measure and monitor interest rate risk using a model to quantify the likely impact of changing interest rates on Old National’s results of operations. The model quantifies the effects of various possible interest rate scenarios on projected net interest income. The model measures the impact on net interest income relative to a base case scenario over a two-year cumulative horizon resulting from an immediate change in interest rates using multiple rate scenarios. The base case scenario assumes that the balance sheet and interest rates are held at current levels. The model shows our projected net interest income sensitivity based on interest rate changes only and does not consider other forecast assumptions. Due to the dynamics of future interest rate expectations, we also measure and monitor interest rate risk using the forward curve, which may be a more probable scenario of our interest rate exposure. The forward curve represents the relationship between the price of forward contracts and the time to maturity of the forward contracts at a point in time.

The following table illustrates our projected net interest income sensitivity over a two-year cumulative horizon based on the asset/liability model as of December 31, 2024 and 2023:

The following table illustrates the upper bound, Federal Funds Rate assumed in the simulation above at December 31, 2024 and 2023:

(1)Represents the upper bound, Federal Funds Rate.

(2)Represents the Federal Funds Rate in month 12 given a gradual, parallel “ramp” relative to the base implied forward scenario.

Our projected net interest income increased year over year driven by loan growth and asset repricing due to current interest rates and economic conditions. Our overall strategy is consistent period over period, as we continue to manage our balance sheet toward a neutral interest rate risk position in a disciplined manner.

A key element in the measurement and modeling of interest rate risk is the re-pricing assumptions of our transaction deposit accounts, which align with our approach to deposit pricing and are consistent period over period. Because the models are driven by expected behavior in various interest rate scenarios and many factors besides market interest rates affect our net interest income, we recognize that model outputs are not guarantees of actual results. For this reason, we model many different combinations of interest rates and balance sheet assumptions to understand our overall sensitivity to market interest rate changes, including shocks, ramps, yield curve flattening, yield curve steepening, as well as forecasts of likely interest rate scenarios tested.

We use cash flow and fair value hedges, primarily interest rate swaps, collars, and floors, to mitigate interest rate risk. Derivatives designated as hedging instruments were in a net liability position with a fair value loss of $7.0 million at December 31, 2024, compared to a net asset position with a fair value gain of $4.5 million at December 31, 2023. See Note 19 to the consolidated financial statements for further discussion of derivative financial instruments.

Liquidity Risk

Liquidity risk arises from the possibility that we may not be able to satisfy current or future financial commitments or may become unduly reliant on alternative funding sources. We establish liquidity risk guidelines that we review with the Enterprise Risk Committee of our Board of Directors and monitor through our Asset/Liability Executive Management Committee. The objective of liquidity management is to ensure we have the ability to fund balance sheet growth and meet deposit and debt obligations in a timely and cost-effective manner. Management monitors liquidity through a regular review of asset and liability maturities, funding sources, and loan and deposit forecasts. We maintain strategic and contingency liquidity plans to ensure sufficient available funding to satisfy requirements for balance sheet growth, to properly manage capital markets’ funding sources, and to address unexpected liquidity requirements. On May 31, 2023, we filed an automatic shelf registration statement with the SEC that permits us to issue an unspecified amount of debt or equity securities.

Loan repayments and maturing investment securities are a relatively predictable source of funds. However, deposit flows, calls of investment securities, and prepayments of loans and mortgage-related securities are not as predictable as they are strongly influenced by interest rates, events at other banking organizations, the housing market, general and local economic conditions, and competition in the marketplace. We continually monitor marketplace trends to identify patterns that might improve the predictability of the timing of deposit flows or asset prepayments.

A maturity schedule for Old National Bank’s time deposits is shown in the following table at December 31, 2024.

Our ability to acquire funding at competitive prices is influenced by rating agencies’ views of our credit quality, liquidity, capital, and earnings.

The credit ratings of Old National and Old National Bank at December 31, 2024 are shown in the following table.

Old National Bank maintains relationships in capital markets with brokers and dealers to issue certificates of deposit and short-term and medium-term bank notes as well. At December 31, 2024, Old National and its subsidiaries had the following availability of liquid funds and borrowings:

(1)Based on collateral pledged.

Old National Bancorp has routine funding requirements consisting primarily of operating expenses, dividends to shareholders, debt service, net derivative cash flows, and funds used for acquisitions. Old National Bancorp can obtain funding to meet its obligations from dividends and management fees collected from its subsidiaries, operating line of credit, and through the issuance of debt securities. Additionally, Old National Bancorp has a shelf registration in place with the SEC permitting ready access to the public debt and equity markets. At December 31, 2024, Old National Bancorp’s other borrowings outstanding were $329.7 million. Management believes the Company has the ability to generate and obtain adequate amounts of liquidity to meet its requirements in the short-term and the long-term.

Federal banking laws regulate the amount of dividends that may be paid by Old National Bank to Old National Bancorp on an unconsolidated basis without obtaining prior regulatory approval. Prior regulatory approval is required if dividends to be declared in any year would exceed net earnings of the current year plus retained net profits for the preceding two years. Prior regulatory approval to pay dividends was not required in 2023 or 2024 and is not currently required. At December 31, 2024, Old National Bank could pay dividends of $889.2 million without prior regulatory approval and while maintaining capital levels above regulatory minimum and well-capitalized guidelines.

Operational Risk

Operational risk is the risk that inadequate information systems, operational issues, breaches in internal controls, information security breaches, fraud, or unforeseen catastrophes will result in unexpected losses and other adverse impacts to Old National, such as reputational harm. We maintain frameworks, programs, and internal controls to prevent or minimize financial loss from failure of systems, people, or processes. This includes specific programs and frameworks intended to prevent or limit the effects of cybersecurity risk including, but not limited to, cyber-attacks or other information security breaches that might allow unauthorized transactions or unauthorized access to client, team member, or company sensitive information. Metrics and measurements are used by our management team in the management of day-to-day operations to ensure effective client service, minimization of service disruptions, and oversight of cybersecurity risk. We continually monitor and internally report on weaknesses in the internal control environment; third party risks; privacy and data governance; cyber-attacks; information security or data breaches; damage to physical assets; employee and workplace safety; execution, delivery, and process management; external and internal fraud; model risk management; and other risks.

Compliance and Regulatory Risk

Compliance and regulatory risk is the risk that the Company violated or was not in compliance with applicable laws, rules, regulations, regulatory guidance and policies, industry standards, or ethical standards. Compliance with applicable regulatory requirements, internal policies and procedures, and ethical standards is not only the right thing to do, but it is embedded within our culture and mission to assist our clients in achieving financial success. Adherence to this belief is the responsibility of every employee, every day, in everything we do. It is Old National’s policy to comply with the letter and intent of all applicable regulatory requirements. Management, the first line of defense, is responsible for ensuring this expectation is met, with oversight from the second and third lines of defense, the risk and internal audit functions, respectively. Recognizing that inadvertent violations may occur, risk management activities are established to promptly identify, analyze, and, if necessary, remediate compliance and regulatory issues to limit compliance risk exposure.

Legal Risk

Legal risk generally results from unidentified or unmitigated risks that could result in lawsuits or adverse judgments that negatively affect the operations or financial condition of the Company. Business practices must be executed, as well as products and services delivered, in a manner that is compliant with applicable laws, rules, regulations, and agreements to which we are a party. Corporate governance practices must be compliant with applicable legal requirements and aligned with market practices. The Board of Directors expects that we will perform business in a manner compliant with applicable laws, rules, and regulations and expects issues to be identified, analyzed, and remediated in a timely and complete manner.