OLD NATIONAL BANCORP IN
For the period ended Dec 31, 2023. Filed Feb 22, 2024.
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FY2023 · Filed Feb 22, 2024
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Critical Accounting Estimates
Our most significant accounting policies are described in Note 1 to the consolidated financial statements. Certain of these accounting policies require management to use significant judgment and estimates, which can have a material impact on the carrying value of certain assets and liabilities. We consider these policies to be our critical accounting estimates. The judgment and assumptions made are based upon historical experience, future forecasts, or other factors that management believes to be reasonable under the circumstances. Because of the nature of the judgment and assumptions, actual results could differ from estimates, which could have a material effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
The following accounting policies materially affect our reported earnings and financial condition and require significant judgments and estimates. Management has reviewed these critical accounting estimates and related disclosures with our Audit Committee.
Business Combinations and Goodwill
Description. For mergers and acquisitions, we are required to record the assets acquired, including identified intangible assets such as core deposit and customer trust relationship intangibles, and the liabilities assumed at their fair value. The difference between consideration and the net fair value of assets acquired is recorded as goodwill. Management uses significant estimates and assumptions to value such items, including projected cash flows, repayment rates, default rates and losses assuming default, discount rates, and realizable collateral values. The allowance for credit losses for PCD loans is recognized within acquisition accounting. The allowance for credit losses for non-PCD assets is recognized as provision for credit losses in the same reporting period as the merger or acquisition. Fair value adjustments are amortized or accreted into the income statement over the estimated life of the acquired assets or assumed liabilities. The purchase date valuations and any subsequent adjustments determine the amount of goodwill recognized in connection with the merger or acquisition. The use of different assumptions could produce significantly different valuation results, which could have material positive or negative effects on our results of operations. The carrying value of goodwill recorded must be reviewed for impairment on an annual basis, as well as on an interim basis if events or changes indicate that the asset might be impaired. An impairment loss must be recognized for any excess of carrying value over fair value of the goodwill.
Judgments and Uncertainties. The determination of fair values is based on valuations using management’s assumptions of future growth rates, future attrition, discount rates, multiples of earnings or other relevant factors. In addition, we engage third party specialists to assist in the development of fair values. Preliminary estimates of fair values may be adjusted for a period of time subsequent to the merger or acquisition date if new information is obtained about facts and circumstances that existed as of the merger or acquisition date that, if known, would have affected the measurement of the amounts recognized as of that date. Adjustments recorded during this period are recognized in the current reporting period. Management uses various valuation methodologies to estimate the fair value of these assets and liabilities, and often involves a significant degree of judgment, particularly when liquid markets do not exist for the particular item being valued. Examples of such items include loans, deposits, identifiable intangible assets, and certain other assets and liabilities.
Effect if Actual Results Differ From Assumptions. Changes in these factors, as well as downturns in economic or business conditions, could have a significant adverse impact on the carrying value of assets, including goodwill and liabilities, which could result in impairment losses affecting our financial statements as a whole and our banking subsidiary in which the goodwill resides.
Allowance for Credit Losses on Loans
Description. The allowance for credit losses on loans represents management’s estimate of all expected credit losses over the expected contractual life of our loan portfolio. Determining the appropriateness of the allowance is complex and requires judgment by management about the effect of matters that are inherently uncertain. Subsequent evaluations of the then-existing loan portfolio, in light of the factors then prevailing, may result in significant changes in the allowance for credit losses in those future periods.
The allowance for credit losses on loans, as reported in our consolidated statements of financial condition, is adjusted by an expense for credit losses, which is recognized in earnings, and reduced by the charge-off of loan amounts, net of recoveries.
Judgments and Uncertainties. We utilize a discounted cashflow approach to determine the allowance for credit losses for performing loans and nonperforming loans. Expected cashflows are created for each loan and discounted using the effective yield method. The discounted sum of expected cashflows is then compared to the amortized cost and any shortfall is recorded as an allowance. Expected cashflows are created using a combination of contractual payment schedules, calculated PDs, LGD and prepayment assumptions as well as qualitative factors. For commercial and commercial real estate loans, the PD is forecasted using a regression model to determine the likelihood of a loan moving into nonaccrual within the time horizon. For residential and consumer loans, the PD is forecasted using a regression model to determine the likelihood of a loan being charged-off within the time horizon. The regression models use combinations of variables to assess systematic and unsystematic risk. Variables used for unsystematic risk are borrower specific and help to gauge the risk of default from an individual borrower. Variables for systematic risk, risk inherent to all borrowers, come from the use of forward-looking economic forecasts and include variables such as unemployment rate, gross domestic product, and house price index. The LGD is defined as credit loss incurred when an obligor of the bank defaults. Qualitative factors include items such as changes in lending policies or procedures and economic uncertainty in forward-looking forecasts.
Effect if Actual Results Differ From Assumptions. The allowance represents management’s best estimate, but significant downturns in circumstances relating to loan quality and economic conditions could result in a requirement for additional allowance. Likewise, an upturn in loan quality and improved economic conditions may allow a reduction in the required allowance. In either instance, unanticipated changes could have a significant impact on results of operations.
One of the most significant judgments used in determining the allowance for credit losses is the macroeconomic forecast provided by a third party. The economic indices sourced from the macroeconomic forecast and used in projecting loss rates include the national unemployment rate, changes in commercial real estate prices, changes in home values, and changes in the United States gross domestic product. The economic index used in the calculation to which the calculation may be most sensitive is the national unemployment rate. Each reporting period, several macroeconomic forecast scenarios are considered by management. Management selects the macroeconomic forecast that is most reflective of expectations at that point in time. Changes in the macroeconomic forecast, especially for the national unemployment rate, could significantly impact the calculated estimated credit losses.
The expense for credit loss recorded through earnings is the amount necessary to maintain the allowance for credit losses at the amount of expected credit losses inherent within the loans held for investment portfolio. The amount of expense and the corresponding level of allowance for credit losses on loans are based on our evaluation of the collectability of the loan portfolio based on historical loss experience, reasonable and supportable forecasts, and other significant qualitative and quantitative factors.
Derivative Financial Instruments
Description. As part of our overall interest rate risk management, we use derivative instruments to reduce exposure to changes in interest rates and market prices for financial instruments. The application of the hedge accounting policy requires judgment in the assessment of hedge effectiveness, identification of similar hedged item groupings and measurement of changes in the fair value of derivative financial instruments and hedged items. To the extent hedging relationships are found to be effective, changes in fair value of the derivatives are offset by changes in the fair value of the related hedged item or recorded to other comprehensive income (loss). Management believes hedge effectiveness is evaluated properly in preparation of the financial statements. All of the derivative financial instruments we use have an active market and indications of fair value can be readily obtained. We are not using the “short-cut” method of accounting for any fair value derivatives.
Credit risk arises from the possible inability of counterparties to meet the terms of their contracts. Old National’s exposure is limited to the termination value of the contracts rather than the notional, principal, or contract amounts. There are provisions in our agreements with the counterparties that allow for certain unsecured credit exposure up to an agreed threshold. Exposures in excess of the agreed thresholds are collateralized. In addition, we minimize credit risk through credit approvals, limits, and monitoring procedures.
Judgments and Uncertainties. The application of the hedge accounting policy requires judgment in the assessment of hedge effectiveness, identification of similar hedged item groupings and measurement of changes in the fair value of derivative financial instruments and hedged items.
Effect if Actual Results Differ From Assumptions. To the extent hedging relationships are found to be effective, changes in fair value of the derivatives are offset by changes in the fair value of the related hedged item or recorded to other comprehensive income (loss). However, if in the future the derivative financial instruments used by us no longer qualify for hedge accounting treatment, all changes in fair value of the derivative would flow through the consolidated statements of income in other noninterest income, resulting in greater volatility in our earnings.
Income Taxes
Description. We are subject to the income tax laws of the U.S., its states, and the municipalities in which we operate. These tax laws are complex and subject to different interpretations by the taxpayer and the relevant government taxing authorities. We review income tax expense and the carrying value of deferred tax assets quarterly; and as new information becomes available, the balances are adjusted as appropriate. FASB ASC 740-10 (FIN 48) prescribes a recognition threshold of more-likely-than-not, and a measurement attribute for all tax positions taken or expected to be taken on a tax return, in order for those tax positions to be recognized in the financial statements. See Note 15 to the consolidated financial statements for a further description of our provision and related income tax assets and liabilities.
Judgments and Uncertainties. In establishing a provision for income tax expense, we must make judgments and interpretations about the application of these inherently complex tax laws. We must also make estimates about when in the future certain items will affect taxable income in the various tax jurisdictions. Disputes over interpretations of the tax laws may be subject to review/adjudication by the court systems of the various tax jurisdictions or may be settled with the taxing authority upon examination or audit.
Effect if Actual Results Differ From Assumptions. Although management believes that the judgments and estimates used are reasonable, actual results could differ and we may be exposed to losses or gains that could be material. To the extent we prevail in matters for which reserves have been established or are required to pay amounts in excess of our reserves, our effective income tax rate in a given financial statement period could be materially affected. An unfavorable tax settlement would result in an increase in our effective income tax rate in the period of resolution. A favorable tax settlement would result in a reduction in our effective income tax rate in the period of resolution.
Management has discussed the development and selection of these critical accounting estimates with the Audit Committee and the Audit Committee has reviewed our disclosure relating to it in this “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.”
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