SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC

Insurance Operations

The following table provides quantitative information for analyzing the combined ratio:

The NPW growth of 9% in Third Quarter 2024 and 13% in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods reflected (i) overall renewal pure price increases, and (ii) higher direct new business, as shown in the following table:

Our NPW growth in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 also benefited from stable retention in our Standard Commercial Lines and E&S Lines and exposure growth on renewal policies.

Loss and Loss Expenses

The loss and loss expense ratio increased 3.0 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 8.1 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily due to the following:

We had higher net catastrophe losses in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily attributable to Hurricane Helene, which resulted in estimated net catastrophe losses of $85.0 million, or 7.6 points, in Third Quarter 2024, and 2.6 points in Nine Months 2024. Hurricane Helene primarily affected states in our Southeastern footprint. Nine Months 2024 was further impacted by 65 other PCS-named events, mainly wind and thunderstorm events with higher severity, compared to the 60 PCS-named events in Nine Months 2023.

Details of the prior year casualty reserve development follow:

There was no net prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter 2024 and Third Quarter 2023. The unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development in Nine Months 2024 of (i) $216.0 million in our general liability line of business was driven by severities in accident years 2020 through 2023 that continued to show higher than expected emergence and (ii) $20.0 million in our commercial automobile line of business was driven by increased severities in accident year 2023. The unfavorable development in these lines of business in Nine Months 2024 was partially offset by favorable workers compensation development of $20.0 million and favorable bonds development of $5.0 million.

In addition, the loss and loss expense ratio was adversely impacted by an increase in current year casualty loss costs of 0.7 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 1.0 point in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily due to increased loss trend expectations and higher prior-year severity assumptions related to the impacts of social inflation on our general liability line of business.

For additional qualitative discussion on prior year casualty reserve development and non-catastrophe property loss and loss expenses, refer to the insurance segment sections below.

Underwriting Expenses

The underwriting expense ratio decreased 0.3 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 1.0 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily due to a decrease in expected profit-based employee compensation and the growth in premium outpacing the growth in underwriting expenses.

Standard Commercial Lines Segment

NPW growth of 8% in Third Quarter 2024 and 11% in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods primarily reflected (i) renewal pure price increases and (ii) strong retention as shown in the table below. In addition, NPW growth benefited from strong exposure growth on renewal policies.

The loss and loss expense ratio increased 4.8 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 11.0 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily driven by the following:

Net catastrophe losses increased in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily attributable to Hurricane Helene, which mainly affected Georgia and the Carolinas and resulted in estimated net catastrophe losses of $61.5 million, or 7.0 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 2.4 points in Nine Months 2024. Nine Months 2024 was further impacted by 54 other PCS-named events, mainly wind and thunderstorm events with higher severity, compared to the 51 PCS-named events in Nine Months 2023, coupled with increased severity of the events.

There was no net prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter 2024, compared to $3.0 million, or 0.4 points, of favorable development in Third Quarter 2023. Prior year casualty reserve development was unfavorable by $211.0 million, or 8.2 points, in Nine Months 2024 compared to $20.5 million, or 0.9 points, of favorable development in Nine Months 2023.

Despite increasing our expected loss trend in recent years, loss severities continued to show higher-than-expected emergence in Nine Months 2024 in the general liability line of business. In response to these unfavorable trends, we recorded unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development in our general liability line of business of $216.0 million in Nine Months 2024, primarily driven by increased severities in accident years 2020 through 2023. In addition, we recorded $20.0 million of unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development in our commercial automobile line of business in Nine Months 2024, primarily driven by increased severities in accident year 2023. The unfavorable development in Nine Months 2024 was partially offset by (i) $20.0 million of favorable workers compensation development, primarily due to lower loss severities in accident years 2021 and prior, and (ii) $5.0 million of favorable bonds development.

In addition, the loss and loss expense ratio was adversely impacted by an increase in current year casualty loss costs of 2.2 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 2.1 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily due to increased loss trend expectations and higher prior-year severity assumptions attributable to impacts from social inflation in the general liability line of business.

Refer to the line of business sections below for a qualitative discussion on the significant drivers of unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development and current year loss costs.

The underwriting expense ratio decreased 0.3 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 0.9 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily due to a decrease in expected profit-based employee compensation and the growth in premium outpacing growth in underwriting expenses.

The following is a discussion of our most significant Standard Commercial Lines of business:

NPW grew 6% in Third Quarter 2024 and 9% in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, benefiting from renewal pure price increases, exposure growth on renewal policies, and strong retention.

The combined ratio increased 8.4 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 34.1 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods and included the following:

The general liability line of business has experienced a long-term historical trend of meaningful severity increases that have been partially offset by claim frequency decreases. Prior-year severities have developed adversely, previously impacting the pre-pandemic period, but in 2024 they have extended into the more recent accident years. We attribute the increased severities to elevated social inflation, which we view as an industry dynamic characterized by higher claimant propensity for attorney representation and litigation, longer settlement times, and higher settlement values. Certain jurisdictions with expanded liability theories and higher damage awards pose increased challenges. We are closely monitoring these jurisdictions and the broader trends across our business.

The unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development in Nine Months 2024 was primarily due to the impact of social inflation, which resulted in higher severity assumptions embedded in our initial loss ratio estimates for recent years. Although we planned for higher expected loss trends, claim emergence in Nine Months 2024 exceeded our expectations. In response to these unfavorable trends, we recorded unfavorable prior year development of $216.0 million in Nine Months 2024, primarily in accident years 2020 through 2023. There was no prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter 2024 and Third Quarter 2023.

Additionally, the combined ratio was adversely impacted by an increase in current year casualty loss costs of 8.7 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 8.9 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily driven by our increased loss trend expectations and higher prior-year severity assumptions for increases in the impact of social inflation.

We believe that social inflation and elevated loss trends are an industry dynamic, which we expect to lead to a more favorable rate environment in the near term. Given the consistency in our underwriting appetite and risk profile over time, we have focused our actions primarily on prudent underwriting and achieving additional rate. Our renewal pure price increase in this line of business accelerated to 10.2% in Third Quarter 2024, up from 7.6% last quarter, and 6.5% for the first quarter of 2024.

NPW grew 11% in Third Quarter 2024 and 15% in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily benefiting from renewal pure price increases and strong retention. This strong retention and higher direct new business in Nine Months 2024 contributed to a 7% growth of in-force vehicle counts as of September 30, 2024, compared to September 30, 2023.

The combined ratio decreased 3.1 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 3.3 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, and included the following:

Non-catastrophe property loss and loss expenses in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 were lower compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily due to lower claim frequencies.

In addition, the combined ratio was reduced by the following:

•Despite increasing current year casualty loss costs by $5.0 million in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024, current year casualty loss costs decreased 1.7 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 1.4 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily driven by the earned impact of higher renewal pure price increases in both periods as highlighted above; and

•Decreases in the underwriting expense ratio of 0.8 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 0.7 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, as discussed in the "Standard Commercial Lines Segment" section above.

Offsetting the favorable combined ratio drivers mentioned above, was unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024, primarily due to increased severities in accident year 2023. The unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter 2023 and Nine Months 2023 was primarily due to increased loss expenses in accident years 2022 and prior.

1 includes Inland Marine.

2 n/a: not applicable.

NPW grew 12% in Third Quarter 2024 and 14% in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily benefiting from renewal pure price increases, strong retention, and exposure growth on renewal policies.

The combined ratio increased 16.7 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 1.2 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods and included the following:

Net catastrophe losses in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 were elevated compared to the same prior-year periods, as discussed in the "Standard Commercial Lines Segment" section above.

Partially offsetting the increase in net catastrophe losses was the following:

•Lower non-catastrophe property loss and loss expense ratios in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods. This reduction reflects (i) the earned impact of higher renewal pure price increases in both current-year periods, and (ii) the continued variability from period to period normally associated with the commercial property line of business. We continue to manage our long-term profitability through (i) price increases, and (ii) targeted underwriting actions, including an ongoing focus on appropriate policy terms and conditions and achieving accurate insurance-to-value ratios; and

•A decrease in the underwriting expense ratio of 1.7 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to Nine Months 2023, as discussed in the "Standard Commercial Lines Segment" section above.

NPW decreased 6% in Third Quarter 2024 and 4% in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily due to renewal pure price decreases and a reduction in direct new business.

The combined ratio increased 6.9 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 4.1 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods and included the following:

The favorable prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 was primarily due to lower loss severities in accident years 2021 and prior. The favorable prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter 2023 and Nine Months 2023 was primarily due to improved loss severities in accident years 2020 and prior.

In addition, the combined ratio was adversely impacted by an increase in current year casualty loss costs of 4.0 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 3.4 points in Nine Months 2024, primarily driven by loss trend outpacing rate achieved on this line.

Standard Personal Lines Segment

NPW decreased 2% in Third Quarter 2024 and increased 6% in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods. The decrease in Third Quarter 2024 compared to Third Quarter 2023 was primarily due to reductions in direct new business and retention, partially offset by renewal pure price increases and higher average policy sizes from our mass affluent market strategy. The increase in Nine Months 2024 compared to Nine Months 2023 was primarily due to renewal pure price increases, exposure growth on renewal policies, and higher average policy sizes from our mass affluent market strategy, partially offset by reductions in direct new business and retention. The reduction in direct new business premiums in both periods was primarily due to a decrease in new policy counts, which were down 62% in Third Quarter 2024 and 49% in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods. We anticipated these reductions given the rate increases we are implementing as part of our overall profit improvement plan.

1 Excludes our Flood direct premiums written, which is 100% ceded to the NFIP and therefore, has no impact on our NPW.

We are taking aggressive actions to improve the profitability of this business by continuing to prioritize additional rate filings state-by-state to mitigate inflationary impacts, and further refining our pricing factors. These filed rate increases began to take effect early in 2023 and increased in number and magnitude throughout 2023 and 2024, and we expect them to continue into 2025. We achieved a renewal pure price increase of 22.8% in Third Quarter 2024 and 18.5% in Nine Months 2024, a direct outcome of these actions. In addition, we are seeking to further improve profitability within our homeowners line of business by introducing new policy terms and conditions, including (i) coverage for older roofs based on a schedule of factors rather than replacement cost, and (ii) implementing mandatory wind/hail deductibles in states exposed to severe convective storms, where law permits.

The change in NPE in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods resulted from the same impacts to NPW described above.

The loss and loss expense ratio decreased 5.8 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 6.9 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, driven by the following:

Net catastrophe losses increased in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily attributable to Hurricane Helene, which mainly affected South Carolina in our Southeastern state footprint and resulted in estimated net catastrophe losses of $20.1 million, or 18.7 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 6.3 points in Nine Months 2024.

In Nine Months 2024, we experienced (i) favorable prior year casualty reserve development on our homeowners line of business of $5.0 million, primarily due to lower loss severities in accident years 2021 and prior, offset by (ii) $5.0 million of unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development on our personal automobile line of business, primarily driven by increased loss severities in accident years 2021 through 2023. The unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter 2023 and Nine Months 2023 was primarily due to increased loss severities in accident year 2022 on our personal automobile line of business.

The loss and loss expense ratio was also impacted by a 6.5-point decrease in current year casualty loss costs in Third Quarter 2024 and a 1.7-point decrease in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior year periods, primarily due to (i) significant rate increases and (ii) an increase in flood claims handling fees related to Hurricane Helene from our participation in the NFIP.

The underwriting expense ratio increased 0.5 points in Third Quarter 2024 compared to Third Quarter 2023, primarily due to a 1.7-point increase in the ratio related to a reduction in the commission benefit from our participation in the NFIP. Partially offsetting this increase was a decrease in expected profit-based employee compensation and the impact of premium growth on the underwriting expense ratio. The underwriting expense ratio decreased 1.5 points in Nine Months 2024 compared Nine Months 2023, primarily due to a decrease in expected profit-based employee compensation and growth in premium outpacing growth in underwriting expenses.

E&S Lines Segment

NPW grew 28% in Third Quarter 2024 and 30% in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, reflecting renewal pure price increases and higher direct new business as shown in the table below. In addition, NPW growth in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 benefited from both property and casualty exposure growth on renewal policies and higher rates per exposure.

The loss and loss expense ratio increased 0.6 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 0.1 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, and included the following:

Net catastrophe losses in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 included $3.4 million, or 2.6 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 0.9 points in Nine Months 2024, of estimated net losses from Hurricane Helene, which primarily affected Georgia in our Southeastern state footprint.

In addition, we experienced higher non-catastrophe property loss and loss expenses in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily due to the impact of large fire losses, reflecting the continued period to period variability normally associated with our E&S property line of business.

There was no prior year casualty reserve development in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024. The Nine Months 2023 development was primarily due to lower severities in accident years 2021 and prior.

The loss and loss expense ratio was favorably impacted by current year casualty loss cost decreases of 3.6 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 3.0 points in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily due to the mix of business between our property and casualty lines of business. Our E&S property line of business has a lower loss ratio compared to our E&S casualty line of business and represented a more significant portion of this segment in Third Quarter 2024 and Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods.

The decrease in the underwriting expense ratio of 1.3 points in Third Quarter 2024 and 1.4 points in Nine Months 2024, compared to the same prior-year periods, was primarily due to premium growth outpacing underwriting expense growth in both periods.

Reinsurance

We successfully completed negotiations of our July 1, 2024 excess of loss treaties, which cover our Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, and E&S Lines.

We renewed the Casualty Excess of Loss Treaty ("Casualty Treaty") with substantially the same structure as the expiring treaty with a co-participation of 17.5% on the first $3 million in excess of $2 million layer, but with the benefit of additional reinstatements on several of the layers. The treaty year 2024 deposit premium increased, reflecting (i) higher projected subject earned premium due to growth in our book of business, including pure renewal rate increases; and (ii) higher anticipated losses in the excess layers, partially offset by (iii) the introduction of the first layer co-participation.

We renewed the Property Excess of Loss Treaty ("Property Treaty") with substantially the same structure as the expiring treaty and an additional reinstatement on the second layer of the program. The treaty year deposit premium increased, reflecting higher projected subject earned premium due to growth in our book of business.

The following table summarizes the Property Treaty and Casualty Treaty arrangements covering our Insurance Subsidiaries:

Investments

Our investment portfolio's objectives are to maximize after-tax net investment income and generate long-term book value per share growth by maximizing the portfolio's overall total return by investing our insurance operations premiums and the amounts our capital management strategies generate, including debt and equity security issuances. We balance those objectives against prevailing market conditions, capital preservation considerations, and our enterprise risk-taking appetite. We maintain (i) a well-diversified portfolio across issuers, sectors, and asset classes, and (ii) a high credit quality fixed income securities portfolio with a duration and maturity profile at an acceptable risk level that provides ample liquidity.

The effective duration of our fixed income and short-term investments was 3.9 years as of September 30, 2024. We monitor and manage the effective duration to maximize yield while managing interest rate risk at an acceptable level. We buy and sell investments with the intent of maximizing investment returns in the current market environment, while balancing capital preservation.

Our fixed income and short-term investments represented 92% of our invested assets and had a weighted average credit rating of "AA-" as of both September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023. Investment grade holdings represented 97% of the total fixed income and short-term investments portfolio as of September 30, 2024, and 96% as of December 31, 2023.

For further details on the composition, credit quality, and various risks to which our portfolio is subject, see Item 7A. "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk." of our 2023 Annual Report.

Invested assets increased $941.6 million at September 30, 2024, compared to December 31, 2023, primarily reflecting our active investment of operating cash flows. Operating cash flows during Nine Months 2024 were 22% of NPW.

Net Investment Income

The components of net investment income earned were as follows:

After-tax net investment income earned increased 16% in Third Quarter 2024 and 15% in Nine Months 2024 compared to the same prior-year periods, primarily driven by higher interest rates, active portfolio management, and operating cash flow deployment.

Realized and Unrealized Gains and Losses

When evaluating securities for sale, our general philosophy is to reduce our exposure to securities and sectors based on economic evaluations of whether (i) the fundamentals for that security or sector have deteriorated or (ii) the timing is appropriate to trade opportunistically for other securities with better economic-return characteristics. Net realized and unrealized gains and losses for the indicated periods were as follows: