UNITED FIRE GROUP INC

Management's discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations are based upon our Consolidated Financial Statements. These statements have been prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"), which requires us to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosure of contingent assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amount of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results could differ from those estimates. The following critical accounting estimates are those we believe affect the more significant judgments and estimates used in the preparation of our financial statements. Additional information about other significant accounting policies and estimates may be found in Note 1 "Summary of Significant Accounting Policies" in Part II, Item 8, "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data."

Investment Valuation

Upon acquisition, we classify investments in marketable securities as held-to-maturity, available-for-sale, or trading. We record investments in fixed maturity securities classified as available-for-sale and equity securities at fair value. Other long-term investments consist primarily of our interests in limited liability partnerships that are recorded on the equity method of accounting. We record mortgage loans at their amortized cost less any valuation allowance.

In general, investment securities are exposed to various risks, such as interest rate risk, credit risk, and overall market volatility risk. Therefore, it is reasonably possible that changes in the fair value of our investment securities that are reported at fair value will occur in the near term and such changes could materially affect the amounts reported in the Consolidated Financial Statements. Also, it is reasonably possible that changes in the value of our investments in limited liability partnerships could occur in the future and such changes could materially affect our results of operations as reported in our Consolidated Financial Statements.

Fair Value Measurement

Information specific to the fair value measurement of our financial instruments and disclosures is incorporated by reference from Note 3 "Fair Value of Financial Instruments" contained in Part II, Item 8.

Reserves for losses and loss settlement expenses are reported using our best estimate of ultimate liability for claims that occurred prior to the end of any given reporting period but have not yet been paid. Before credit for reinsurance recoverables, these reserves were $1.8 billion and $1.6 billion at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. We purchase reinsurance to mitigate the impact of large losses and catastrophic events. Loss and loss settlement expense reserves ceded to reinsurers were $198.1 million and $191.6 million at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively. Our reserves, before credit for reinsurance recoverables, by line of business as of December 31, 2024, were as follows:

Case-Basis Reserves

For each of our lines of business, our experienced claims personnel estimate case-basis reserves for reported claims. Establishing the case reserve for an individual claim is subjective and complex, requiring us to estimate future payments and values sufficient to settle the claim. Setting a reserve for an individual claim is an inherently uncertain process. When we establish and adjust individual claim reserves, we do so based on our knowledge of the circumstances and facts of the claim at a point in time. Upon notice of a claim, we establish a preliminary (average claim cost) reserve based on the limited claim information initially reported. Subsequently, we conduct an investigation of each reported claim, which allows us to more fully understand the factors contributing to the loss and our potential exposure. This investigation may extend over a long period of time. As our claim investigation progresses, and as our claims personnel identify trends in claims activity, we may refine and adjust our estimates of case-basis reserves. To evaluate and refine our overall reserving process, we track and monitor all claims until they are settled and paid in full, with all salvage, subrogation claims, and liability deductible recoveries being resolved.

Our loss reserves include amounts related to both short-tail and long-tail lines of business. A short-tail insurance product is one where claim settlement values are known comparatively quickly. Final settlement values for long-tail insurance products are sometimes not known for many years. The longer the time span between the incidence of a loss and the settlement of the claim, the more the final settlement can vary from the reserves initially established. Accordingly, long-tail insurance products can have significant implications on the reserving process.

Our short-tail lines of business include fire and allied lines, commercial property, automobile physical damage and inland marine. The amounts of the case-based reserves that we establish for claims in these lines depend upon various factors, such as individual claim facts (including type of coverage and severity of loss), our historical loss experience and trends in general economic conditions (including changes in replacement costs, medical costs and inflation).

Our long-tail lines of business include workers' compensation and other liability. In addition, certain product lines such as commercial automobile, commercial multi-peril and surety include both long-tail coverages and short-tail coverages. For many long-tail liability claims, significant periods of time, ranging up to several years, may elapse between the occurrence of the loss, the reporting of the loss to us and the settlement of the claim. As a result, loss experience in the more recent accident years for the long-tail liability coverages has limited statistical credibility in our reserving process because a relatively small proportion of losses in these accident years are reported claims and an even smaller proportion are paid losses. In addition, long-tail liability claims are more susceptible to litigation and can be significantly affected by changing contract interpretations and the legal environment. Consequently, the estimation of loss reserves for long-tail coverages is more complex and subject to a higher degree of variability than for short-tail coverages.

The amounts of the case-basis loss reserves that we establish for claims in long-tail lines of business depend upon various factors, including individual claim facts (including type of coverage, severity of loss and underlying policy limits), company historical loss experience, legislative enactments, judicial decisions, legal developments in the awarding of damages, experience with alternative dispute resolution, changes in political attitudes and trends in general economic conditions, including the effects of inflation. As with our short-tail lines of business, we review and make changes to long-tail case-based reserves based on our review of continually evolving facts as they become available to us during the claims settlement process. Our adjustments to case-based reserves are reported in the financial statements in the period that new information arises about the claim. Examples of facts that become known that could cause us to change our case-based reserves include, but are not limited to: evidence that loss severity is different than previously assessed; new claimants who have presented claims; and the assessment that no coverage exists.

Incurred But Not Reported Reserves ("IBNR")

Most of our insurance policies are written on an occurrence basis that provides coverage if a loss occurs during the policy period, even if the insured reports the loss many years later. On a quarterly basis, the Company performs a detailed analysis of IBNR reserves. This analysis uses various projection methods to provide several estimates of ultimate loss or loss adjustment expense ("LAE") for each individual accident year and line of business. The projection methods include, but are not limited to, paid development; reported development; expected loss ratio methods; and Bornhuetter Ferguson methods on both a paid and reported basis. These methods may need to be adjusted for anomalies or outliers in the data, unusual internal or external trends, or other factors impacting the reliability/credibility of the historical company experience. Results of the projection methods are compared, and a point estimate of ultimate loss or LAE is established for each individual accident year and line of business. The specific projection methods used to establish point estimates vary depending on what is deemed most appropriate for a particular line of business and accident year. IBNR estimates are derived by subtracting reported loss from the final point estimates.

Senior management meets with our actuarial team and controller on a quarterly basis to review the adequacy of carried IBNR reserves based on the results of this actuarial analysis. Adjustments for changes in business and other factors not completely captured by the data within the actuarial analysis are made as deemed necessary. This method of establishing our IBNR reserves has consistently resulted in aggregate reserve levels that management believes are reasonable in comparison to the reserve estimates indicated by the actuarial analysis.

For our short-tail lines of business, IBNR reserves constitute a small portion of the overall reserves. These claims are generally reported and settled shortly after the loss occurs. In our long-tail lines of business, IBNR reserves constitute a relatively higher proportion of total reserves, because, for many liability claims, significant periods of time may elapse between the initial occurrence of the losses, the reporting of the losses to us, and the ultimate settlement of the losses.

Loss Settlement Expense Reserves

Loss settlement expense reserves include amounts ultimately allocable to individual claims, as well as amounts required for the general overhead of the claims handling operation that are not specifically allocable to individual claims. We do not establish case reserves for these expenses. Instead, on a quarterly basis, management performs a statistical analysis to estimate the required reserve for unpaid loss settlement expenses using historical data.

LAE is composed of two distinct kinds of expenses which are defense and cost containment ("DCC") and adjusting and other ("A&O"). These two expense types have different purposes and characteristics which necessitates different estimation methods in order to provide a quarterly estimate of the required reserve for unpaid expense which is generally referred to as an LAE IBNR reserve.

Reserves for unpaid DCC are estimated quarterly by line of business for each individual accident year using three methods: (1) Paid development, (2) Expected emergence of DCC, and (3) Bornhuetter Ferguson. Each of the three methods produces an estimate of the ultimate DCC cost for an individual accident year and the final estimate is generally a weighted average of the various methods. Inception to date paid DCC is subtracted from the final ultimate DCC estimate to provide the estimated DCC unpaid reserve for each individual accident year.

Reserves for unpaid A&O are estimated quarterly by line of business for each individual accident year using a single method. This method consists of applying a percentage factor to unpaid loss reserves. The percentage factor used differs by line of business and is established on an annual basis using year-end data. The percentage factor is evaluated and selected after reviewing the ratio of paid A&O to paid loss using calendar year data for the most recent five years.

Reinsurance Reserves

There are three distinct types of reserves for expected recoveries: (1) reported claim reserves, (2) loss IBNR, and (3) allocated LAE IBNR. Ceded reserves for reported claims are calculated by subtracting the primary retention from the claim value established by our claim adjuster. Ceded IBNR comes from multiple treaties and is reviewed quarterly by our reserving actuaries in conjunction with the direct IBNR. Multiple methods are utilized in the ceded IBNR which vary by line of business. These include estimates based on the relationship of ceded premium to direct premium, Bornhuetter Ferguson methods, and methods based on industry excess of loss factors. Some of our business is 100 percent ceded or based on a set quota share percentage. In those cases, ceded loss IBNR is typically formulaic based on direct loss IBNR. We will cede some allocated LAE expenses when we cede loss. Our ceded allocated LAE IBNR is estimated based on our ceded unpaid loss reserves and the general relation, by line of business, between LAE and loss.

Key Assumptions

The Company uses a number of key assumptions in establishing an estimate of loss and loss settlement expense reserves, including but not limited to the following: the Company's case-basis reserves reflect the most up-to-date information available about the unique circumstances of each individual known claim; judicial decisions or regulatory actions have been considered to the extent of our knowledge; new, emerging claim reporting and payment patterns will continue into the future consistent with the observable past; adjustments have been made for significant unique and unusual known claim events; and, to the best of our knowledge, there are no new, unidentified latent trends that would impact our overall reserves. These assumptions about future circumstances and expectations are inherently uncertain and subject to many risk factors including but not limited to heightened levels of inflation, increased litigation activity, changing weather patterns, and changing driver behaviors.

Therefore, our key assumptions are subject to change as actual claims occur and as we gain additional information about the variables that underlie our assumptions. Accordingly, management reviews and updates these assumptions periodically to ensure that the assumptions remain relevant and consistent with our current understanding of the environment. If necessary, management makes changes not only in the estimates derived from the use of these assumptions, but also in the assumptions themselves. Due to the inherent uncertainty in the loss reserving process, management believes that there is a reasonable chance that modification to key assumptions could individually, or in aggregate, result in reserve levels above or below the actual amount for which the related claims will eventually settle.

Adjustments to the reserves could be recorded in one year or multiple years, depending on when they are identified. This would also affect our financial position in that our equity would be adjusted by an amount equivalent to the net income impact. Any deficiency that would be recognized in our loss and loss settlement expense reserves usually does not have a material effect on our liquidity because the claims have not been paid. Conversely, if our estimates of ultimate unpaid loss and loss settlement expense reserves prove to be redundant, our future earnings and financial position would be improved. We believe our approach produces recorded reserves that are reasonable as to their relative position within a range of reasonable reserves from year-to-year.

Historical experience suggests reserve levels can vary considerably for an individual year before ultimate settlement values are known, but variation for the aggregate ultimate loss typically would fall in the range of 2.5% to 5%. The table below provides some scenarios for the impact of this development volatility on our reported net loss and loss adjustment reserves of $1.6 billion as of December 31, 2024.

In 2024, we changed the model used to review a portion of the LAE reserves. The reserves related to expenses not associated with individual claims (adjusting and other) are now reviewed using a projected claim count model. The methodologies relied upon for the remainder of the reserves were not altered but additional considerations were added to our models to aid in selecting key assumptions. In estimating our 2024 loss and loss settlement expense reserves, we did not anticipate future events or conditions that were inconsistent with past development patterns.

Certain of our lines of business are subject to the potential for greater loss and loss settlement expense development than others, which are discussed below:

Other Liability Reserves

Other liability is considered a long-tail line of business, as it can take a relatively long period of time to settle claims from prior accident years. This is partly due to the lag time between the date a loss or event occurs that triggers coverage and the date when the claim is actually reported. Defense costs are also a part of the insured expenses covered by liability policies and can be significant, sometimes greater than the cost of the actual paid claims. For the majority of our products, defense costs are outside of the policy limit, meaning that the amounts paid for defense costs are not subtracted from the available policy limit.

Factors that can cause uncertainty in estimating reserves in this line include: reporting time lags; the number of parties involved in the underlying tort action; whether the "event" triggering coverage is confined to only one time period or is spread over multiple time periods; the potential dollars involved in the individual claim actions; whether such claims were reasonably foreseeable and intended to be covered at the time the contracts were written (i.e., coverage disputes); and the potential for mass claim actions.

Claims with longer reporting time lags may result in greater inherent risk. This is especially true for alleged claims with a latency feature, particularly where courts have ruled that coverage is spread over multiple policy years, hence involving multiple defendants (and their insurers and reinsurers) and multiple policies (thereby increasing the potential dollars involved and the underlying settlement complexity). Claims with long latencies also increase the potential time lag between writing a policy in a certain market and the recognition that such policy has potential mass tort and/or latent claim exposure.

Our reserve for other liability claims at December 31, 2024 was $912.7 million and consisted of 3,862 claims, compared with $819.2 million, consisting of 4,351 claims at December 31, 2023. Of the $912.7 million total reserve for other liability claims, $101.4 million is identified as DCC and $56.0 million is identified as A&O required in the settlement of claims.

Included in the other liability line of business are gross reserves for construction defect losses and loss settlement expenses. Construction defect exposure is unique because of its very long tail as claims can often take over six years to be reported to us and another four years to settle, on average. This exposure relates to a deficiency in the design or construction of a building or structure resulting from a failure to design or construct in a reasonably workmanlike manner, and/or in accordance with a buyer's reasonable expectation. In the cases involving latent defects, the determination of when a loss occurred is often unclear and governed by various theories that vary by state. Further, each state has a unique Statute of Repose that determines the length of time an insured has to report a claim generally from the date of substantial completion of a project.

In addition to these issues, other variables contribute to a high degree of uncertainty in establishing reserves for construction defect claims. These variables include: whether coverage exists; when losses occur; the size of each loss; expectations for future interpretive rulings concerning contract provisions; and the extent to which the assertion of these claims will expand geographically. In recent years, we have implemented various underwriting measures that we anticipate will mitigate the amount of construction defect losses experienced, including further consideration of insured endorsements; stricter underwriting guidelines on the writing of residential contractors; and increased utilization of loss control.

Asbestos and Environmental Reserves

Included in the other liability and assumed reinsurance lines of business are reserves for asbestos and other environmental losses and loss settlement expenses. The estimation of loss reserves for environmental claims and claims related to long-term exposure to asbestos and other substances is one of the most difficult aspects of establishing reserves, especially given the inherent uncertainties surrounding such claims and the likelihood that these uncertainties will not be resolved for many years. Although we record our best estimate of loss and loss settlement expense reserves, the ultimate amounts paid upon settlement of such claims may be more or less than the amount of the reserves. At December 31, 2024 and 2023, we had $0.7 million and $0.8 million, respectively, in direct and assumed asbestos and environmental loss reserves.

Catastrophe Event Reserves

Catastrophe losses are inherent risks of the property and casualty insurance business. Catastrophic events include, without limitation, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, hailstorms, wildfires, high winds, winter storms and other natural disasters, along with man-made exposures to losses resulting from, without limitation, acts of terrorism and political instability. Some types of catastrophes are more likely to occur at certain times within the year than others, which adds an element of seasonality to our property and casualty insurance claims. The frequency and severity of catastrophic events are difficult to accurately predict in any year. However, some geographic locations are more susceptible to these events than others.

We control our direct insurance exposures in regions that are prone to naturally occurring catastrophic events through a combination of geographic diversification, restrictions on the amount and location of new business production in such regions, and reinsurance. We regularly assess our concentration of risk in natural catastrophe exposed areas and consider the impacts of climate change and the unpredictability of future trends in adjusting our geographic concentrations. We have strategies and underwriting standards to manage these exposures through individual risk selection, subject to regulatory constraints, and through the purchase of catastrophe reinsurance coverage. We use catastrophe modeling and a risk concentration management tool to monitor and control our accumulations of potential losses in natural catastrophe exposed areas, such as the Gulf Coast and East Coast, as well as in areas of exposure in other countries where we are exposed to a portion of an insurer's underwriting risk under our assumed reinsurance contracts. Despite our efforts to manage our catastrophe exposure, the extent of losses from a catastrophe is a function of both the total amount of insured exposure in an area affected by the event and the severity of the event. The occurrence of one or more severe natural catastrophic events in heavily populated areas could have a material effect on our results of operations, financial condition or liquidity.

The process of estimating and establishing reserves for losses incurred from catastrophic events is inherently uncertain and the actual ultimate cost of a claim, net of reinsurance recoveries, may vary materially from the estimated amount reserved. Catastrophe modeling generally relies on multiple inputs based on experience, science, engineering and history, and the selection of those inputs requires a significant amount of judgment. The modeling results may also fail to account for risks that are outside the range of normal probability or are otherwise unforeseen. Because of this, actual results may differ materially from those derived from our modeling assumptions.

Commercial Automobile Reserves

Commercial automobile claim reserves are established at exposure based on information either known and provided or obtained through the claims investigation. The perspective and experience of the claims staff, which may include assumptions as to how the claim will develop over time, is incorporated in the investigation. Exposures are identified and reserves established within 30 to 60 days depending on the complexity of the case.

Workers' Compensation Reserves

Like the other liability line of business, workers' compensation losses and loss settlement expense reserves are based upon variables that create uncertainty in estimating the ultimate reserve. Estimates for workers' compensation are particularly sensitive to assumptions about medical cost inflation. Other variables we consider and that contribute to the uncertainty in establishing reserves for workers' compensation claims include: state legislative and regulatory environments; trends in jury awards; and mortality rates. Because of these variables, the process of reserving for the ultimate loss and loss settlement expense to be incurred requires the use of informed judgment and is inherently uncertain. Consequently, actual loss and loss settlement expense reserves may deviate from our estimates and such deviations may be significant. Our reserve for workers' compensation claims at December 31, 2024 was $115.6 million and consisted of 1,042 claims, compared with $121.0 million, consisting of 1,077 claims, at December 31, 2023.

Reserve Development

We recognized a favorable development in our net reserves for prior accident years totaling $1.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2024 and adverse development of $67.8 million and $12.9 million for the years ended December 31, 2023 and 2022, respectively.

The following table details the pre-tax impact on our property and casualty insurance business' financial results and financial condition of reasonably likely reserve development. Our lines of business that have historically been most susceptible to significant volatility in reserve development have been shown separately and utilize hypothetical levels of volatility of 5.0 percent and 10.0 percent. Our other, less volatile, lines of business have been aggregated and utilize hypothetical levels of volatility of 3.0 percent and 5.0 percent.

Reserve development is discussed in more detail under the heading "Losses and Loss Settlement Expense" in the "Results of Operations" section in this Item 7.

Appointed Actuary

The Company terminated the engagement with Regnier Consulting Group, Inc. ("Regnier") as its appointed actuary for the year ended December 31, 2024. Beginning with the 2024 reporting period, the Company's Vice President of Actuarial Reserving will serve as the appointed actuary, approved by the Board of Directors. The Company has engaged a third party firm to provide an independent and unbiased assessment of the Company's reserves. We do not rely on the external consulting actuary's assessment to determine our recorded reserves; however, we review and discuss its observations on trends, key assumptions, and actuarial methodologies, and consider these items when determining our recorded reserves.

Pension Benefit Obligation

The process of estimating our pension benefit obligation and related benefit expense is inherently uncertain, and the actual cost of benefits may vary materially from the estimates recorded. These liabilities are particularly volatile due to their long-term nature and are based on several assumptions. The main assumptions used in the valuation of our pension benefit obligation are estimates related to: mortality of the employees and retirees eligible for benefits; expected long-term rates of return on investments; compensation increases; employee turnover; and liability discount rate. We have engaged an independent firm to assist in evaluating and establishing assumptions used in the valuation of our pension benefit obligations.

A change in any one or more of these assumptions is likely to result in an ultimate liability different from the original actuarial estimate. Such changes in estimates may be material. For example, a 100 basis point decrease in our estimated discount rate would increase the benefit obligation at December 31, 2024 by $22.1 million while a 100 basis point increase in the rate would decrease the pension benefit obligation by $18.2 million, for the same period.

A 100 basis point decrease in our estimated long-term rate of return on pension plan assets would increase the benefit expense for the year ended December 31, 2024 by $2.3 million, while a 100 basis point increase in the rate would decrease benefit expense by $2.3 million, for the same period. Corresponding with the impact on benefit expense, there would be an offsetting impact to pension plan assets.

In an effort to limit the impacts of interest rate exposure, in September 2023, we made a shift in our pension plan asset investment strategy to a liability driven investment ("LDI") approach to better match the timing of cash flows between payouts from the plan with cash flows from the asset portfolio as well as hedge interest rate risk between assets and liabilities.