SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO
For the period ended Dec 31, 2023. Filed Feb 6, 2024.
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FY2023 · Filed Feb 6, 2024
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Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates
The Company’s Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared in accordance with GAAP. The Company’s significant accounting policies are described in Note 1 to the Consolidated Financial Statements. The preparation of financial statements in accordance with GAAP requires the Company’s management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in the Consolidated Financial Statements and accompanying footnotes. The Company’s estimates and assumptions are based on historical experience and changes in the business environment. However, actual results may differ from estimates under different conditions, sometimes materially. Critical accounting policies and estimates are defined as those that both (i) are most important to the portrayal of the Company’s financial condition and results and (ii) require management’s most subjective judgments. The Company’s critical accounting policies and estimates are described below.
Revenue Recognition
Tickets sold for Passenger air travel are initially deferred as Air traffic liability. Passenger revenue is recognized and Air traffic liability is reduced when the service is provided (i.e., when the flight takes place). Air traffic liability primarily represents tickets sold for future travel dates, flight credits that are expected to be used in the future, and loyalty benefits that are expected to be redeemed in the future. Air traffic liability typically fluctuates throughout the year based on seasonal travel patterns, fare sale activity, and activity associated with the Company’s loyalty program. See Note 1 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for information about the Company's revenue recognition policies.
For air travel on Southwest, the amount of tickets (which includes flight credits—also referred to as partial tickets) that will go unused, referred to as breakage, is estimated and recognized in Passenger revenue once the scheduled flight date has passed, in proportion to the pattern of rights exercised by the Customer, in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification 606, Revenue From Contracts With Customers ("ASC 606"). Estimating the amount of tickets that will ultimately go unused involves some level of subjectivity and judgment. The majority of the Company's tickets sold are nonrefundable, although flight credits created when a Customer cancels or modifies an existing flight itinerary can be applied towards the purchase of future travel. Unused flight credits are the primary source of breakage. Breakage estimates are based on historical experience over many years. Fully refundable tickets rarely go unused.
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, for all Customer flight credits created or scheduled to expire between March 1 and September 7, 2020 associated with flight cancellations, the Company initially extended the expiration date to September 7, 2022. See Note 6 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information regarding these extended flight credits. Since the Company did not have historical data to enable it to accurately estimate the pattern of usage of these extended credits, these credits have been classified as a current liability throughout their history. Subsequently, on July 28, 2022, the Company modified its policy and announced that all unexpired flight credits as of that date, including these extended flight credits, will no longer have an expiration date and thus will be able to be redeemed by Customers indefinitely. This change in policy was considered a contract modification under ASC 606 and the Company accounted for such change prospectively in third quarter 2022. The Company’s balance of existing Customer flight credits as of the modification date was approximately $1.9 billion, including the extended flight credits that had been set to expire on September 7, 2022.
As a result of changes in observed Customer travel habits and behaviors during 2021 and 2022, the Company increased its estimates of “normal” Customer flight credits that are expected to go unused, as Customer redemptions of these "normal" credits had been at a slower rate than the Company’s historical data for similar credits in periods prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the Company continues to believe a portion of Customer flight credits will go unused following the Company's change in policy, including a portion of flight credits issued after July 28, 2022, the Company expects its prospective breakage rate associated with such flight credits to be at or slightly lower than historical pre-pandemic levels due to the fact that such flight credits no longer have an expiration date. Although the Company's estimated breakage rate was consistent throughout 2023, a one percentage point change in the amount of breakage, as a factor of total flight credits issued, would have resulted in a change of Passenger revenues of approximately $26 million. The Company also does not currently anticipate any changes to its estimated breakage rate for 2024.
Observed Customer behavior that differs from historical experience can cause actual ticket breakage to differ significantly from estimates. Assumptions about Customer behavior are reviewed frequently and corresponding adjustments are made to breakage estimates, as needed, when observed behaviors differ from historical experience. Assumptions about Customer behavior can be impacted by several factors including, but not limited to: fare increases, fare sales, changes to the Company's ticketing policies, changes to the Company’s refund, exchange and unused flight credit policies, seat availability, and economic factors. The Company’s estimation techniques have been consistently applied from year to year; however, as with any estimates, actual ticket breakage may vary from estimated amounts.
Fair Value Measurements and Financial Derivative Instruments
The Company utilizes unobservable (Level 3) inputs in determining the fair value of certain assets and liabilities. As of December 31, 2023, these consisted of its fuel derivative option contracts, which were an asset of $223 million. The Company utilizes financial derivative instruments primarily to manage its risk associated with changing jet fuel prices. See "Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk" for more information on these risk management activities, Note 11 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for more information on the Company’s fuel hedging program and financial derivative instruments, and Note 12 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for more information about fair value measurements.
All derivatives are required to be reflected at fair value and recorded on the Consolidated Balance Sheet. As of December 31, 2023, the Company was a party to over 200 separate financial derivative instruments related to its fuel hedging program for future periods. Changes in the fair values of these instruments can vary dramatically based on changes in the underlying commodity prices. For example, during 2023, market "spot" prices for Brent crude oil peaked at a high average daily price of approximately $97 per barrel and hit a low average daily price of approximately $72 per barrel. During 2022, market spot prices ranged from a high average daily price of approximately $128 per barrel to a low average daily price of approximately $76 per barrel. Market price changes can be driven by factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, weather events, refinery capacity, political agendas, the value of the U.S. dollar, geopolitical events, the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic, and general economic conditions, among other items. Historically, the financial derivative instruments utilized by the Company primarily are a combination of collars, purchased call options, call spreads, put spreads, and fixed price swap agreements.
The Company enters into financial derivative instruments with third party institutions in "over-the-counter" markets. Since the majority of the Company’s financial derivative instruments are not traded on a market exchange, the Company estimates their fair values. Depending on the type of instrument, the values are determined by the use of present value methods or standard option value models with assumptions about commodity prices based on those observed in underlying markets.
The Company determines the fair value of fuel derivative option contracts utilizing an option pricing model based on inputs that are either readily available in public markets, can be derived from information available in publicly quoted markets, or are quoted by its counterparties. In situations where the Company obtains inputs via quotes from its counterparties, it verifies the reasonableness of these quotes via similar quotes from another counterparty as of each date for which financial statements are prepared. The Company has consistently applied these valuation techniques in all periods presented and believes it has obtained the most accurate information available for the types of derivative contracts it holds. Due to the fact that certain inputs used in determining the estimated fair value of its option contracts are considered unobservable (primarily implied volatility), the Company has categorized these option contracts as Level 3. Although implied volatility is not directly observable, it is derived primarily from changes in market prices, which are observable. Based on the Company’s portfolio of option contracts as of December 31, 2023, a 10 percent change in implied volatility, holding all other factors constant, would have resulted in a change in the fair value of this portfolio of less than $34 million.
Fair values for financial derivative instruments are estimated prior to the time that the financial derivative instruments settle. However, once settlement of the financial derivative instruments occurs and the hedged jet fuel is purchased and consumed, all values and prices are known and are recognized in the financial statements. Although the Company continues to use a prospective assessment to determine that commodities continue to qualify for hedge accounting in specific locations where the Company hedges, there are no assurances that these commodities will continue to qualify in the future. This is due to the fact that future price changes in these refined products may not be consistent with historical price changes. Increased volatility in these commodity markets for an extended period of time, especially if such volatility were to worsen, could cause the Company to lose hedge accounting altogether for the commodities used in its fuel hedging program. Further, should the anticipated fuel purchases covered by the Company's fuel hedges no longer be probable of occurring, the Company would discontinue hedge accounting. The loss of hedge accounting would create further volatility in the Company’s GAAP financial results.
As discussed in Note 11 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, any changes in fair value of cash flow derivatives designated as hedges are offset within AOCI until the period in which the expected future cash flow impacts earnings. Any changes in the fair value of fuel derivatives that do not qualify for hedge accounting are reflected in earnings within Other (gains) losses, net, in the period of the change. Because the Company has extensive historical experience in valuing the derivative instruments it holds, and such experience is continually evaluated against its counterparties each period when such instruments expire and are settled for cash, the Company believes it is unlikely that an independent third party would value the Company’s derivative contracts at a significantly different amount than what is reflected in the Company’s financial statements. In addition, the Company also has bilateral credit provisions in some of its counterparty agreements, which provide for parties (or the Company) to provide cash collateral when the fair value of fuel derivatives with a single party exceeds certain threshold levels. Since this cash collateral is based on the estimated fair value of the Company’s outstanding fuel derivative contracts, this provides further validation to the Company’s estimate of fair values.
Loyalty Accounting
The Company utilizes estimates in the recognition of revenues and liabilities associated with its loyalty program. These estimates primarily include the liability associated with Rapid Rewards loyalty member ("Member") account balances that are expected to be redeemed for travel or other products at a future date. Loyalty account balances include points earned through flights taken, points sold to Customers, or points earned through business partners participating in the loyalty program.
Under the Southwest Rapid Rewards loyalty program, Members earn points for every dollar spent on Southwest base fares. The amount of points earned under the program is based on the fare amount and fare type, with higher fare types (e.g., Business Select) earning more points than lower fare types (e.g., Wanna Get Away). Each fare type is associated with a points earning multiplier, and points for flights are calculated by multiplying the fare amount for the flight by the fare type multiplier. Likewise, the amount of points required to be redeemed for a flight can differ based on the fare type purchased. Under the program, (i) Members are able to redeem their points for every available seat, every day, on every flight, with no blackout dates; and (ii) points do not expire. In addition, Members are able to redeem their points for items other than travel on Southwest Airlines, such as international flights on other airlines, cruises, hotel stays, rental cars, gift cards, event tickets, and more. In addition to earning points for revenue flights and qualifying purchases with Rapid Rewards Partners, Members also have the ability to purchase, gift, and transfer points, as well as the ability to donate points to selected charities.
The Company utilizes the deferred revenue method of accounting for points earned through flights taken in its loyalty program. The Company also sells points and related services to business partners participating in the loyalty program. Liabilities are recorded for the relative standalone selling price of the Rapid Rewards points which are awarded each period. The liabilities recorded represent the total number of points expected to be redeemed by Members, regardless of whether the Members may have enough to qualify for a full travel award. As of December 31, 2023, the loyalty liabilities were approximately $4.9 billion, including $3.2 billion classified within Air traffic liability and $1.7 billion classified as Air traffic liability – noncurrent.
In order to determine the value of each loyalty point, certain assumptions must be made at the time of measurement, which include an allocation of passenger revenue between the flight and loyalty points earned by passengers, and the fair value of Rapid Rewards points, which are generally based on their redemption value to the Customer. See Note 6 to the Consolidated Financial Statements for further information on determining the estimated fair value of each loyalty point.
The majority of the points sold to business partners are through the Southwest co-branded credit card agreement ("Agreement") with Chase Bank USA, N.A. Consideration received as part of this Agreement is subject to ASC 606. The most recent instance in which the Agreement was amended was in fourth quarter 2021. The Agreement has the following multiple elements: travel points to be awarded, use of the Southwest Airlines’ brand and access to Rapid Rewards Member lists, advertising elements, and the Company’s resource team. These elements are combined into two performance obligations, transportation and marketing, and consideration from the Agreement is allocated based on the relative selling price of each performance obligation.
Significant management judgment was used to estimate the selling price of each of the performance obligations in the Agreement at inception, including each time in which the Agreement has been materially amended. The objective is to determine the price at which the Company would transact a sale if the product or service was sold on a stand-alone basis. The Company determines the best estimate of selling price by considering multiple inputs and methods including, but not limited to, the estimated selling price of comparable travel, discounted cash flows, brand value, published selling prices, number of points awarded, and the number of points redeemed. The Company estimates the selling prices and volumes over the term of the Agreement in order to determine the allocation of proceeds to each of the multiple performance obligations. The Company records revenue related to air transportation when the transportation is delivered and revenue related to marketing elements when the performance obligation is satisfied. A one percent increase or decrease in the Company's estimate of the standalone selling prices, implemented as of January 1, 2023, causing a change to the allocation of proceeds to air transportation would not have had a material impact on the Company's Operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2023.
Under its current program, Southwest estimates the portion of loyalty points that will not be redeemed. In estimating the breakage, the Company takes into account the Member’s past behavior, as well as several factors related to the Member’s account that are expected to be indicative of the likelihood of future point redemption. These factors are typically representative of a Member’s level of engagement in the loyalty program. They include, but are not limited to, tenure with the program, points accrued in the program, and points redeemed in the program. The Company believes it has obtained sufficient historical behavioral data to develop a predictive statistical model to analyze the amount of breakage expected for all loyalty points. The Company updates this model at least annually, and applies the new breakage rates effective October 1st each year, or more frequently if required by changes in the business. Changes in the breakage rates applied annually in recent years have not had a material impact on Passenger revenues. For the year ended December 31, 2023, based on actual redemptions of points sold to business partners and earned through flights, a hypothetical one percentage point change in the estimated breakage rate would have resulted in a change to Passenger revenue of approximately $235 million (an increase in breakage would have resulted in an increase in revenue and a decrease in breakage would have resulted in a decrease in revenue). Given that Member behavior may fluctuate over time, the Company expects the current estimates may change in future periods. However, the Company believes its current estimates are reasonable given current facts and circumstances.
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